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25th April 2008
Greetings, friends,
- Multiple bets - my multiple reasons to steer clear....
- Why should ignore the 'Put £50 on for me' shysters....
Steer clear of multiples....
In response to my recent request for feedback, a surprising number of you asked for advice on how to make multiple bets - like trebles, yankees, super yankees and so on - profitable.
My bottom line advice is to focus instead on minimizing your losses with these bets. And the best way to do that is to not get involved with them in the first place.
I'm not a big fan of multiple bets where racing is concerned. I can understand making these bets when you're playing for small stakes and want the potential of a big win. But losing is no fun whatever the size of your stakes. And lose long term you will.
Sure, you occasionally read about the odd punter landing a six-figure payout when his super yankee comes in. But those stories are few and far between. When they do occur the bookies plaster on the fake rictus smiles and trot out the same old weasel words through gritted teeth about how delighted they are to write the big cheque - eager to squeeze out whatever promotional coverage they can and propound the myth that multiple bets are the dog's proverbials.
What they don't tell you about are the swarms of punters who play racing multiples week after week after week and regularly fill the bookie's coffers with their losing stakes. Or that those same punters are considered 'mugs' - bookie speak for 'valued clients'.
Bets the bookies drool over....
Let's say you have a £1 yankee - consisting of 11 bets involving 4 selections in 6 doubles, 4 trebles and a four-fold and costing you £11 in stakes. If your first runner goes down you've already done your money on 3 of your 6 doubles, 3 of your 4 trebles and your fourfold. Almost 64% of your total stakes have gone west before your second runner has been saddled.
True, two winning selections will guarantee a return - you'll get a double up. And at half-decent prices you'll come out a winner. And true, if you've got a great winner-finding strike rate then multiples are a serious tool - an effective method for leveraging small stakes into big profits.
But most punters don't have those kind of strike rates and certainly won't sustain them long-term. Picking a single winner can be difficult enough without nailing two, three or four out of four or more.
Fact is unless you're very special you won't make a profit long term backing horses in multiple bets.
That's a bold statement, I know. Perhaps I should attempt to prove it with reference to numbers, statistics, hours of research, witness testimony and scientific experiment. But the fact is I don't need to. We can establish how unprofitable multiples are for the racing punter by observing the actions of our enemy - the bookmaker.
Multiple bets have been turned into 'products' - lucky 15s, lucky 31s and lucky 63s and the like. Walk into any betting shop and you'll see the bookmaker has gone to the trouble of printing special slips making it as easy as possible for you to place multiple racing bets. Some bookmakers offer bonuses on these bets to entice you into them - for example, Betfred pushes the bonuses it pays on these products every day in its Racing Post advertisements.
Bookmakers do not push any bet which is a long-term loser for them. Fact. If a bookmaker is pushing a certain course of action, it is in your interests to ignore it. The only bets the bookmaker spends time and money persuading you to make are bets the vast majority of punters generally lose on. Racing multiples are a case in point.
Multiples encourage schizophrenic staking....
Another problem I have with multiples is the schizophrenic staking it involves. Let's have a look at a notional treble to illustrate the point.
Let's say you have a £10 treble on a 10/1 shot, an 8/1 shot and a 4/1 shot - three horses you feel confident about having done your groundwork.
The first horse does the business. So, now you have £110 riding on the second horse - eleven times bigger than your original stake. But do you consider the second horse an eleven times better bet? Highly unlikely.
The more horses you back with a single stake the more the stake on each subsequent horse compounds. If the second horse wins your third horse will be carrying £990 in stakes- almost 100 times your original stake. But does the third horse constitute a 100 times better bet? I doubt it.
To me the staking involved in multiples makes no sense. It's like increasing your win single stake to ridiculous levels just because you backed a winner in the last race. Incidentally, bookies love this kind of ill-disciplined 'mug' too - because punters who up stakes haphazardly after a win don't tend to hang on to their winnings for very long. Playing with multiples drags you into the same trap.
In our notional bet you could find an 8/1 winner and a 10/1 winner and still walk away a loser when the third horse lets you down. Gut-wrenching stuff. I'd rather be on win singles and walk away with a £170 profit on the day. I might miss the odd whopping win. But I'll miss a hell of a lot more losing bets and bank some decent win single money along the way. A bird in the hand....and all that.
However, I'm not a total bet fascist. If I strongly fancy two horses, my main bet is a win single on each. But, just for luck, when I'm feeling particularly reckless and I find myself in a purple patch of picking form, I'll also double them up to a stake worth 10 or 20% of the win single - just as a nice little bonus. Romance isn't completely dead in the Pullen heart!
Word to the wise: Avoid racing multiples unless your winner-picking strike rate justifies it. If it doesn't, then beware. Being blinded by the faint possibility of big wins to small stakes will leave you light in the pocket over the long-term. If you can't make the game pay using win singles, then you ain't going to make it pay no way.
File these 'Pay as you go' tipster offerings in your dustbin....
Whilst we're on the subject of things you want to avoid.... steer clear of the guys who advertise in the Racing Post or send you letters claiming to be racehorse owners or professional gamblers requiring help with gambles.
They tell you that they can't capitalise on their insider knowledge without your assistance because of Jockey Club rules or because they've been blacklisted by the bookmakers. 'My quality selections are free of charge... All you have to do is back them and put some cash on for me,' they'll tell you. The stake they want you to put on for them varies but you're expected to send them the winnings if the selection obliges.
These people are not doing anything illegal. But there is a bit of sharp practice at work.
The operation is no-risk for them. If their selection loses they don't lose a penny. You lose your stake and the stake you placed for them. If the selection wins, they get a payout. You win too - but you'll lose over time because you're getting really bad value.
Here's why. Let's say you're a £25 per bet punter. You sign up with one of these guys and agree to put a £20 bet on for him. You get hold of his latest selection. It's a 4/1 shot. You put £25 on for yourself and £20 for him.
The horse does the business. You make a £100 profit. And you have another £80 to send to the tipster. But, look at what's going on here. You risked £45 of your own money to make a personal profit of £100 - the equivalent of a payout at a fraction over 2/1.
Fact. There's no way you'll make money long term backing 4/1 shots at just over 2/1. The deal with the tipster leaves you on the wrong side of the value fence.
Now you might be a £100 punter. You might be thinking that the £20 you put on for the tipster isn't going to make too much difference where value is concerned. But you'd be wrong. In our example, you'd staking £120 of your money for a personal profit of £400. Instead of getting 4/1 for your money, you're getting 100/30 or thereabouts. Not such drastic bad value - but bad value all the same. And over time bad value bets will make you a loser.
And, bear in mind, my example assumes the tipster's horse wins!
Word to the wise: 'Pay as you go tipsters make you a loser over time - regardless of whether their tips win or lose. Ignore their advertisements and bin their communications.
Until next time, be lucky.
18th April 2008
Hi friends,
Sincere thanks to all you readers who responded to my recent call for feedback. Your comments and questions are really useful in helping me provide you with the information you want. In that spirit this week's issue will offer some guidance on a common issue you raised.
- A quick method for identifying a horse's preferred ground, or 'going'...
- Good news - poor quality racing to be cut from fixture list...
Going, going, get it wrong and your money is gone...
A common question I received focused on form and how best to read it to identify winners.
Form is a complex subject involving multiple variables that contribute to the performance of a horse in any given race and which affect its chances in any upcoming race.
Going, distance, course conformation, pace, how a horse was ridden, the opposition it raced against, class, weight carried, race conditions, style of fences, draw, race times, ratings achieved, and many other factors all contribute to the complex dataset referred to as 'form'.
Detailed guidance on how to read and interpret every aspect of 'form' would make for a good book. Over time I hope to give you a solid grounding in form-reading and analysis. For now, I'm going to focus on a very basic introduction to the most important variable you need to assess when you come to analyse the form of a horse and its chances in any race you're considering betting in. I'm talking about the 'going' - the ground, the conditions underfoot.
The vast majority of horses have an optimum going - underfoot conditions which enable the horse to run to its potential. Some horses need the ground as hard as a road to give of their best. Others are mudlarks and aren't going to perform unless they're up to their necks in mud. Others have preferences which fall somewhere in between. Confronted with conditions other than optimum, most horses will perform some way beneath their best.
As far as the going is concerned, my basic rule is this: Never bet on a horse unproven on the prevailing going.
Establishing whether or not a horse meets this criterion is a pretty straightforward process if you know what to look for and where to find it. The good news is that the information you need is readily available - and it's FREE.
I get this information at the Racing Post website where there's a wealth of data freely available to anybody who wants to take a look. You'll need to register first - but it's free and it's painless. Go to: http://www.racingpost.co.uk
A quick method for identifying a horse's going preferences
Now, let's say NICK'S FANCY is running in the 2.00 at Sandown where the official going is soft.
The first thing I'll do when assessing NICK'S FANCY'S chances of winning is check out its record on soft ground. It's my primary consideration. The going is that important. If the horse has previously demonstrated that it won't handle a soft surface then I will not bet on it contradicting this pattern in its form. I will not bet on it doing something it has not previously managed. If it doesn't go on the ground it will not be carrying my cash come the off. Simple as that.
Here's what I do. I go to the Racing Post website, login and get the runners up for the 2.00 at Sandown. Then I'd double-click on NICK'S FANCY. This will fire up another window containing all manner of information specific to the horse. There are a number of tabs to select from. The one I'm interested in is the 'Statistics' tab. Click on that and, among other things, I'll find a breakdown of the horse's form on all the different types of going it has encountered.
Now let's say the horse has run on soft ground 5 times. It's never won on the surface but has picked up £4300 place money. The best Racing Post Rating it's earned on soft is 101.
Compare this to its record on good ground which it has experienced 8 times, winning twice, securing win and place prize money of £15,000 and earning a best Racing Post Rating of 110.
Given those figures it's pretty clear that NICK'S FANCY is a better horse with good ground underfoot than it is on a softer surface.
I like to back horses experiencing conditions and circumstances they like. This will not be the case with NICK'S FANCY in the 2.00 at Sandown. He has failed to prove he handles soft ground sufficiently well. He's a good ground horse. And he won't be carrying my cash come the off.
Indeed, if he's trading at a shortish price, I might Lay NICK'S FANCY on the exchanges. I expect him to be beaten once again on a soft surface he doesn't perform at his best on. And I'd be particularly keen to Lay him if horses he'll be racing against do perform on soft ground. I'd expect at least one of those racing on its favoured surface to beat NICK'S FANCY home.
My method for establishing a horse's going preferences is quick and dirty but it's pretty effective. Using it you can go through an entire field of runners in less than 5 minutes and either discount a horse or pencil it in for further investigation. On its own the method will rarely enable you to identify the winner of a race. But it will consistently enable you to avoid losers and find the occasional short-priced Lay.
Word to the wise: If a horse is not proven on the going then it should not be carrying your money. Yes, you might miss a few winners following this rule. But you'll also dodge a cartload of losers!
Poor quality racing to be reduced...thank God
On the basis that what is bad for the bookmaker must be good for the punter, the 41 page fixture list review, published last week by the British Horseracing Authority (BHA), gave us something to cheer. The lowest-quality all weather racing fixtures look set to be reduced after coming in for some withering criticism.
The review noted that summer all-weather fixtures have trebled in the past four years and impacted negatively upon the reputation of British racing. It also noted that all-weather winter evening cards formed a poor sporting spectacle with small fields of lowly rated horses attracting few spectators.
Average attendance at evening all-weather cards between December and February last winter was a mere 795. Field sizes at all all-weather meetings during the same period averaged 8.4, compared with 11.2 three years ago. Throughout the winter cards consisted of races with just 4 or 5 horses for what seemed like weeks on end. It really was poor fare.
Going to the dogs...
Too much of all-weather racing is absolute garbage contested by the lowest quality animals in racing. I noticed there were some Class 7 races at Kempton the other afternoon. Class 7? How poor must a horse be to qualify for that kind of event?
Trying to predict which slow, untalented, disinterested, broken down, crippled, sick, temperamental or ruined animal might take its turn in winning that barrel-scraping level of contest is a job for finer minds than mine. To me it's no better than dog racing.
Maybe that's why the bookmakers love it so much. They've been pulling their faces about the BHA's plans following publication of the review. The bookmakers want wall-to-wall racing. They want continuous product to put in front of mug punters who will bet on anything.
A product like Class 6 and Class 7 all-weather racing where form is often meaningless, horses totally unpredictable and where outcomes often make absolutely no sense whatsoever, suits bookmakers down to the ground and they want as much of it as they can get. It's hard for the punter to win on that type of lottery - and hard for the bookmaker to lose.
Picking losers can be risky in races where anything can win...
Given that it's hard to pick winners in these kinds of events, you might be forgiven for thinking it's easy to pick losers to Lay on the exchanges. Not so. Not in my case at any rate. This week I've been going through my betting records and identifying where my recent money has been won and lost. Since the turn of the year I show an unhealthy loss Laying horses in Class 4 and Class 5 races on the all-weather - the lowest-quality events I've played in.
Some of the losses were down to Sod's law. But, in the main, I was getting it wrong. Horses which looked like no-hopers regularly defied my methods and won their races. That's the problem with such low-quality racing. It seems like anything can win given a fair wind on the day.
I should know better than to get involved in such dross. I hang my head in shame and I've learnt my lesson. Given the evidence of my betting records, I've sworn myself off the all-weather completely from this point forward. If there's no other racing to bet on, I'll be holding on to my money. There will be other days when there's better quality racing featuring more consistent horses whose form can be taken at face value.
Word to the wise: The lowest quality races are contested by the most unpredictable horses. Avoid betting in these races and stick to better quality events contested by more consistent animals. Low quality races suit the bookmaker and what suits him hits you in the pocket.
Note: If you're interested in learning more about Lay Betting - how to do it, how not to do it, and the secrets of generating consistent profits... keep you eyes peeled for an exclusive offer coming your way soon.
I have written a manual dedicated to Lay Betting - titled Join The Lay Betting Revolution and Make Big Money from Losers. Not only do I explain how you can make money betting against horses, but I provide a comprehensive - and totally independent - review of the 20 best Lay Betting service currently available. So you can start cashing-in straight away - without losing your shirt.
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Until next time, be lucky.
11th April 2008
Good morning, friends,
- The facts about laying horses on the exchanges....
- Turn down the sound on your TV....
The difference between Laying horses and betting on Losers...
Spend a little time nosing about in the Betfair forum and, sooner or later, you'll find a post similar to this from an aspiring punter with big dreams, financial problems or both:
'Hi! I'm totally new to exchange betting!! I want to make money real quick by laying horses - enough to quit my job and pay off my mortgage in the next couple of months. I don't know the first thing about horse racing but I don't think it matters. Can anybody give me any pointers?'
The only way anybody can help this guy is by changing his mind or booking him in for a lobotomy. If he goes ahead with his plans, he's doomed. Doomed to lose. Doomed by greed, ignorance, haste and a chronic case of missing the point.
He's obviously read somewhere that you can Lay (that is, bet against) horses on the exchanges - that you can win money picking horses that don't win their races. And that's all he wants to hear... His jaw drops open. Clunk! His heart starts to thump wildly. The pound signs start to spin before his eyes. 'This is the key to my dreams,' he whispers to himself. 'Losing horses? Any fool can pick them...'
And there's the basic mistake in his thinking.
Without a little help, Lay Betting is not the license to print money that it may at first seem...
Plenty of people can back losing horses consistently. Not everybody can Lay losing horses consistently and profitably.
This is where a little professional help comes in.
Here's the rub: when you Lay a horse you're playing bookmaker. If you back a horse at 4/1 you get the 4 from the bookmaker if the horse wins and you lose the 1 if it doesn't. When you Lay it's the other way round. When you win you get the 1 but when you lose you have to part with the 4. As a Layer your risks will outweigh your rewards on all but the occasions you lay odds-on shots. Losing when you Lay can sometimes hurt.
So, when you Lay horses it stands to reason you want to be Laying at the shortest prices - reducing your potential liability?
That's right. But doing it profitably is easier said than done. Short priced horses trade at short prices because they are fancied. And plenty of fancied horses win their races. Laying too many of those winners will cost you money. Picking out the right short-priced, fancied horses to Lay (those overvalued by the market and wrongly priced) is a skill - requiring some knowledge of the game. Not just anybody can do that consistently and profitably.
Okay. So let's Lay the rags? Those 33/1 shots are that price because they're useless? We can Lay them for profit?
A lot of the time you'd be right. But big priced horses win too. Every day of the week. And when they do those big liabilities can cripple you. Remember, to win the 1 you risk the 33 or the 25 or the 16. Not a game for the faint hearted. The liability on a winning 33/1 shot will cost you every penny you won on the previous 32 successful bets you Laid (assuming you're playing to level stakes). That's a pretty soul destroying experience. Get it wrong a time or two too often and you really are in trouble.
Play the guessing game - and suffer the consequences
No doubt you can see the choppy waters our newbie exchange player is headed for? By his own admission he knows nothing about racing. He hasn't the experience to pick out the false favourites. If he starts laying the big priced 'no hopers' then he's just guessing and, at some point, he's going to get caught out.
There's only one way he's going to learn - the hard way. And it's going to cost him bundles.
Reading his forum post is a bit like watching a high-speed car crash unfold from a distance. No amount of arm-waving is going to avert the inevitable. It's a case of wait for the sound of screeching tyres and shield your eyes from the glare of the fireball.
The Exchanges are not a money tree just waiting for any Tom, Dick or Harry to bowl along and start harvesting ten pound notes. There is money to be made - that's for sure. But having the ability to Lay a horse is the not the same thing as having a licence to print money. Having the option to Lay horses is just that - an option. One to be taken advantage of when you're sure the odds are on your side.
Making best use of the option requires you to bring something to the game - some knowledge or expertise enabling you to spot a nailed-on loser when you see it.
Making good money laying horses on the exchanges is very possible....
I know because I make a fair proportion of my own income laying horses. But it does require some working knowledge if you're going to go it alone. I'd share my own picks with you. But I tend to make my lay decisions in the moments leading up to the off. There just isn't time to send out alerts.
I'll cover some of my lay methods in future issues. However, if you're not quite ready to go it alone but you'd like to access the profit opportunities laying horses presents without delay, then there is another option. Retain the services of an expert lay tipster and let them do the picking for you.
I just spent a few months analysing the performances of the most high-profile lay tipping services out there. These guys make their living recommending losing horses to exchange layers. They aren't all great. Some are downright poor. But there's a good number of quality services out there - amongst the many, many rip-off merchants you need to beware - who make consistent profits for their clients with their lay selections.
I covered 20 reliable and honest services for 3-months and my analysis of their performance is included in my new manual - Join the Lay Betting Revolution and Win Big Money from Losers. Some of these guys made thousands for their subscribers over the testing period and are well worth considering if you want to start laying horses as part of your approach to winning on the racing.
* If you're interested in learning more about Lay Betting - how to do it, how not to do it, and the secrets of consistent profits, keep you eyes peeled for an exclusive offer coming your way soon.
As valued members of my inner circle, you will have the chance to secure a copy of my manual - Join the Lay Betting Revolution and Win Big Money from Losers - providing a step-by-step guide to successful Lay Betting. PLUS, my unique guide to the 20 best Lay Betting services on the market, so you can start cashing-in straightaway, without losing your shirt.
Word to the wise: Laying horses is a not a certain route to profit. Laying involves risk. Winning is possible but it requires some expertise. If you don't possess this expertise yourself then you should consider retaining the services of someone who does.
Turn down the sound on the racing commentary.....
The Grand National commentary on Racing UK provided some compelling reasons to ignore the commentator when you watch races. At various stages of the race Bewleys Berry, Ardaghey and King John's Castle were all wrongly called as fallers.
I'm not criticising the race commentators. It's a tricky job - especially in the National. But it does spoil the race when your attention is drawn to events that haven't actually happened!
Try turning down the sound when you watch races. There are some real benefits. One is you avoid the confusion of having to figure out whether what you think you are seeing or what you are hearing is correct. Another is that without the commentator directing your attention, you get to make and trust your own observations and that can led to some real winner-finding clues for the future - clues that other watchers routinely miss!
I'll return to the subject of effective race-watching and how it can improve your betting in upcoming issues. For now....
Word to the wise: Just try watching the racing with the sound down. I think you'll be pleasantly surprised how much more you see when you aren't being distracted by what you hear. And what you see can pay dividends!
Until next time, be lucky.
4th April 2008
Good afternoon, friends,
- My Grand National shortlist....
- Place your bets with bookies offering the best deal....
- Confession time - the shameful moves I'll be making on Saturday morning....
Four horses that fit the National bill....
I told you on Wednesday that I like my National horses to have some form over a long trip. Of those that do, some just don't look good enough to me. Idle Talk, Cornish Sett, Joacci, Black Apalachi and Naunton Brook are respectable enough chasers but don't make much appeal as potential winners.
Chelsea Harbour looks to me to need softer ground than he will get and his jumping has often let him down. The Aintree fences won't forgive him. Cloudy Lane is a pretty obvious pick. But he makes absolutely no appeal whatsoever at the prices. In a field of 40 he has to be opposed.
McKelvey ran well last year but was off the course injured until March. He's shown no sparkle and is hard to fancy. L'Ami, Ardaghey and Kelami have been on the go all season and I don't believe that's the ideal preparation for a serious assault on the National.
In a big field with crowded approaches to jumps and loose horses causing mayhem I don't want my horse wearing blinkers. I want it to be able to see what's going on around it. Blinkered horses don't have a good record in the race and I'm happy to discount horses wearing them. The much fancied Comply or Die falls into this category. So too Point Barrow and D'Argent (who trainer, Alan King, has previously maintained isn't an Aintree horse).
And then there were four...
The four that look to have big chances to me - which might be of some use to you when you come to look at the race and make your own decisions - are Mon Mome, Slim Pickings, Butlers Cabin and Bewleys Berry. All look to have been prepared with this specific race in mind. All four are stout stayers. All four jump well.
Slim Pickings ran third in the race last year. He's had very similar preparation to last year and there's been serious money for him at VC bet this week.
Bewleys Berry was going very well in last year's race before crumpling on landing at Bechers Brook second time round. At that point he looked every inch a potential winner. He went back to Aintree in November and ran 2nd in the Becher Chase. He pulled up last time out but I'm prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt. I expect him to be tuned for a big run.
Butlers Cabin has won 2 out of 2 and taken significant prize money at big distances. Jonjo O'Neill, his trainer, says he's a superb jumper. His recent form doesn't sing but his year has revolved around this race and I expect him to still be there at the end.
Mon Mome disappointed a little at Cheltenham. However, preparations had not gone to plan. His horse has some cracking form in the book - including a 2nd in a Welsh National. He always seems to run his race and if that happens on Saturday he'll be in with real chances.
Word to the wise: Cloudy Lane begs to be opposed at the prices. There's plenty of opposition to pick from - including the 4 horses I highlight above who look to have been specifically prepared for the race.
Place your business with bookies who don't take you for granted....
Grand National day is obviously a big day for the bookies. It's the one day of the year on which they're guaranteed a bumper take from the housewives, grandmothers and other one-off punters who wouldn't normally have a bet on the racing. All over the country fat bookies have staffed their offices to the gills with the intention of getting their snouts deep into the trough. Bless their little black hearts.
Some bookmakers fight hard for your business- offering incentives to bet with them. Others take a different line and offer no inducements, no concessions, no cherry to tempt you to punt on their book.
It always pays to identify and bet with the former whilst ignoring the latter. On Grand National day it can be especially important.
In a big field of 40 runners - with plenty at nice prices - it makes sense to bet each-way. That way, if your horse runs a big race but doesn't quite make the winner's enclosure, you can drown your sorrows with a place payout.
So the bookies offering enhanced place terms of 1/4 on the first 5 finishers are of special interest. That extra place can make all the difference. bet365, betterbet, boylesports, sporting bet, bluesq, paddy power, bet direct, stan james, 888sport, centrebet all go 1/4 odds for 1-2-3-4-5 place.
Whatever you do, don't bet each-way with mingy bookies like Coral, Hills, Ladbrokes, VC bet, totepsort, betfred and skybet who will only paying out on the first 4.
Also bear in mind some of the special offers available. For example, VC bet will refund win single on the National if your horse falls (and plenty will) with a free bet to the same value. And Paddy Power will add a 10% bonus to winning single bets on the National. Scan the bookie ads in the press on Saturday morning. No doubt there will be other such concessions we can take advantage of. It makes sense to get whatever little advantages you can.
Word to the wise: Some bookmakers - particularly the so-called 'majors' - are under the impression they don't have to work for your custom. Dispel them of this myth by voting with your feet. Take you business to bookies prepared to offer a little more in exchange for your patronage.
It's a great day for constructing a book of no-lose bets for yourself....
There are a still few bookmakers I don't have an account with. And I can guarantee you they'll be on my hit list on Saturday morning.
Grand National day is the day when plenty of friends and relatives want to have their one-off annual punt. Most don't have a clue how to deal with a bookmaker or how to go about putting a bet on, getting the best price, the best deal and so on. So I'll be stepping in and doing my bit to help them out - phoning round, getting their picks and placing the bets for them.
But before you dash off a petition to the Pope recommending me for Sainthood ... just hold your horses. There's some self-interest at work here. I'm going to be using those stakes where possible to qualify for account opening offers available with the bookies I haven't got accounts with. And I'll be using the free bets to back my own fancies.
I know, I know... I should be ashamed of myself. Quite how I'll hold my head up in Church come Sunday morning I don't know. But the free bets would otherwise go begging with my friends and relatives simply lumping on at their local shops. And I can't resist the opportunity to have my National horses backed with some of the bookie's own money. It has to be done!
On Saturday afternoon I'll be able to sit back and watch the race with a fair proportion of my book consisting of no-lose bets. The job's a good 'un, friends!
Word to the wise: Friends, relatives, workmates, strangers you meet in the street.... They all want to get on a horse in the National. Why not use your expertise to get their bets on at the best price - and secure, where possible, a few free bets for yourself in the process?
Until next time, be lucky.
2nd April 2008
Hello friends,
Welcome to you special bonus email - looking forward to one fo the great sporting events on the calendar, The Grand National.
The National line-up is beginning to reveal itself to us... runners are being confirmed, jockeys booked and the market is taking shape... it's time to start thinking seriously about reducing the number of runners to a shortlist of probables...
- Instantly strike 69 horses from your considerations...
- Three attributes your National fancies must possess...
Ignore non-runners, the young, the old and the heavily burdened ...
As of Wednesday lunchtime there were still 99 horses entered in the Grand National. The field is limited to a maximum of 40 runners on the day. Most of the top 40 in the weights are intended runners. Those at the bottom of the weights have no chance whatsoever of getting a run and we can strike these from our list. In fact, I'd strike from my list any horse outside the top 45 in the handicap - as these horses have no chance of contesting the race.
Of the top 45 we can already dismiss 14 runners who don't fit the age and weight profiles we discussed in our 21st March issue...
- No horse aged under 8 has won the big one in the last 67 years.
- No horse older than 12 has won the Grand National in the last 84 years.
- And Since the war there have been only five instances of horses carrying more than 11st 5Ibs to victory.
This means I've already drawn a line through some fancied runners - including, Hedgehunter, Mr Pointment, Turko, Ollie Magern, Simon, Opera Mundi and others with confidence.
Word to the wise: The horses lowest in the handicap will not get a run. The youngest and the oldest will not win. And the horses rated best by the official handicapper will be beaten by weight before the race has even started.
Three essential attributes a National horse must possess...
So, how to sort the probables from the remaining horses...
A lot of people will tell you that the Grand National is a lottery. I disagree. It's a horse race - just like any other - making unique but specific demands of participants. I work on the principle that if a horse is to run a competitive race in the National then it will need to possess specific attributes...
The first of these is stamina - and plenty of it.
The National is run over 4 miles and 4 furlongs. It's a real test and when it comes to betting in the race I won't put money on any horse which has not previously demonstrated possession of the requisite stamina.
Ideally, I like my National horses to have proven form in chases run over at least 3 miles and 2 furlongs. This is a personal preference - but to me it makes sense. I like my National horses to have won decent money at longer distances - a simple way of proving they are competitive over gruelling trips.
Of the last 10 winners of the Grand National only Monty's Pass and Red Marauder bucked this requirement. But Red Marauder's race can't be taken at face value. It was something of an anomaly run as it was on desperate ground. And it's debateable whether or not the horse would have won or got close had it not been left clear in front following the pile up that can only be described as equine carnage at the Canal Turn.
I'm a little flexible in the application of this rule. If a horse has shown to be running on well at the end of a 3-mile contest, for example, then I wouldn't dismiss it. But anything less and I'm sceptical. I don't subscribe to the view that two-and-a-half milers make the best National horses and recent history supports me.
Gritty, proven stayers like Hedgehunter, Bindaree, Silver Birch and Amberleigh House are the type to have on your side when push comes to shove at the business end of the four and a half mile National marathon. Battle hardened stayers can be relied upon to still be racing when speedier animals used to racing over shorter distances have started to blow out of their backsides.
I also like my National horses to be fresh. I discount horses which have already had too hard a season of racing. I work on the principle that horses rested and laid out for the National are those most likely to meet the stamina requirements.
Again, it's simple but logical deduction. Horses which have been racing throughout the NH season are likely to lack the physical edge and racing zest necessary to find the reserves of stamina and guts needed to be competitive in the big one. Four races or less over the current season is my personal cut off point.
Finally, a National horse needs to be a reliable fencer. The National fences represent racing's most stringent test of a horse's ability to jump fluently at speed. Mistakes mean lost ground at best or being on the deck and out of it at worst. The Grand National fences reward virtue. A horse absolutely has to be able to take the fences fluently at speed to stand a cat in hell's chance of being in contention.
So, I don't like to see too many falls, blunders or comments about inefficient jumping in a National horse's record. Particularly not in the current season. If a horse struggles at its fences at more ordinary tracks, it's going to struggle at Aintree. Jumping problems are unlikely to correct themselves over the massive Aintree obstacles.
To find live National runners there's no substitute for going through the form of every runner to identify in your own mind which horses meet the above criteria. It's worth the effort. Some of the qualifiers will be completely underestimated by the wider market and will go off at very healthy prices!
I'll reveal my own final shortlist of 'live' runners in Friday's issue - conforming to the above criteria and with some fine tuning. By then we'll have had a day of racing at Aintree and will have some idea about how the ground is riding - another very important consideration.
Word to the wise: Stamina, freshness and the ability to jump - three attributes a horse needs to be competitive in the Grand National. All very obvious you might say - but you'd be surprised how many intended runners don't possess these three attributes. This won't stop punters backing them in their thousands. Just make sure you're not one of them.
Until Friday, be lucky.
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