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1st April 2010
Good afternoon, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus....
- Will Godolphin start where they left off....
- Two reasons why not....
- A group of horses you can profit from....
- Don't miss out on my Grand National advice....
Will Godolphin start where they left off?
There's nothing like leaving people with a smile on their face. And
that's certainly what Saeed Bin Suroor and the Godolphin yard did at
the tail end of last year's flat season.
From the beginning of September to the end of November they rewarded
punters who follow the yard blindly (and plenty do) with three
consecutive winning months - 9.3 points in September, 16 points in
October and a whopping 28.3 points in November (53.6 points in
total). It was a definite case of leaving the best until last.
A period of profit like that requires consistent strike rates and
Godolphin obliged with winning strike rates of 26.9%, 31.7% and
40.4% over the three months. Overall, 305 runners produced 96
winners at a 3-month strike rate of 31.4%.
The Godolphin operation is expected to arrive in Britain in April
and plenty of punters will be hoping they start back exactly where
they left off. Such hopes should not be relied upon.
Two reasons why they might not....
First off, there have been some changes at the yard. Suroor has been
given a new team mate in Al Zarooni. Zarooni will be training at the
Moulton Paddocks stable in Newmarket where his string will consist
of the 2-year-olds and a few older horses. Bin Suroor will operate
from Godolphin Stables.
On the face of it, the move has been made to reduce the Suroor
workload. But it remains to be seen what other, perhaps unforeseen,
effects the change might have and how well the various nuts and
bolts of the double-handed approach fit together.
Secondly, whilst Godolphin has signed off on recent seasons with its
string in top form, it hasn't started those seasons quite so well.
The first three months of last season were an absolute nightmare for
punters. Godolphin's first 127 runners of the campaign, which
contested their races in the months of April, May and June, produced
just 15 winners at a strike rate of just 11.8%.
If you were relying on Godolphin getting your seasonal betting
performance off to a bang then you were weeping into your ale by the
summer solstice - with a 60 point hole in your bank.
The season before Godolphin only ran 69 horses in the months of
April, May and June - producing 12 winners at 17.3%. The yard still
produced a loss for punters though. Not quite such a mauling as the
following year would bring - but a 15.8 point deficit nevertheless.
If you're slobbering over the prospect of Godolphin's return to
these shores and you can't wait to get your money down, just bear
this in mind. Zarooni may have got off the mark on Saturday when
Calming Influence won the Godolphin Mile but over the last couple of
years Godolphin have been slow to fire and it remains to be seen if
changes to the structure and working practices at the yard assist
with turning that recent trend around.
A group of horses you can profit from....
I spend a lot of time identifying groups of horses that produce a
lot of losers. Specifically, I'm interested in groups of horses that
consistently produce losing performances at short-prices - in other
words, horses ripe for laying on the betting exchanges.
At this time of year, as the jumps season moves towards its end and
the flat season starts to gather momentum, it pays to think ahead.
Where are the horses we want to be laying on the turf?
The first place I start looking is the 5 furlong division. These
races are for the real speed balls and are over almost as soon as
they've started. It's the equivalent of the 100 metre dash for
humans. There's no room for error in a 5 furlong sprint - and that
gives the layer an edge.
There's a lot of luck involved in winning a 5 furlong sprint - and
that may be why it seems like the sprinters take it in turns to win.
So much depends on getting a trouble-free run. Whichever horse gets
the best passage is going to be there or thereabouts. But try
predicting which horse the heavens are smiling on today.
A late break from the stall can scupper your chances. A stumble, a
bad bump or clipping the heels of the runner in front, can all put
paid to your prospects. A clear run is a basic requirement - but
there's no guarantee. Get caught for a few seconds too long behind a
wall of horses, just fail to get the run up the inside rail or run
into interference from horses dropping down the field and you'll
struggle like billy-ho to cross the line in front.
In other words, the layer has got a lot that can go wrong quite
easily running in his favour.
Plenty of losers to be found....
Since the beginning of 2008 and through to today 2276 horses have
been sent off at SPs of 4/1 or less in 5 furlong races. Of those
runners 1678 lost their races and rewarded the exchange layers with
the backer's stake.
Now, don't get me wrong. On occasions you won't be able to lay
horses at SP. On the betting exchanges you might have to lay at a
slightly bigger price. And on the exchanges you also have to pay a
5% commission on the bets you end up on the winning side of.
That said, if you had opposed all the qualifying runners at SP to a
£100 level stake then you'd be up over £32,000 over the period
(prior to commission being paid.)
My point is this. Short-price horses in 5 furlong races are hostages
to fate. In addition to running up to form, any short-price horse
must also get the run of the race and manage to avoid all the bombs
that can go off during a race over the minimum distance.
Over such a short distance there's very little time to recover and
get back on terms - more often than not an error, bad luck or
trouble in running is punished with defeat. That's a nice game for
layers.
I'm not suggesting the blind laying of short-price horses in 5
furlong races. I'm merely suggesting that this group of runners
produce plenty of short-priced losers. When you see one in the
market then it is worthwhile taking a closer look at its form
records and its profile.
If you can spot deficiencies or a weakness in the form record (say
when the race in question confronts the horse with circumstances or
conditions the horse has failed to handle on previous occasions),
then you may well have found yourself a horse to oppose on the
exchanges.
To cut the workload down you could focus instead on 5 furlong
sprinters which look like they might be sent off at 2/1 or less.
Over the same period 743 runners have been sent off at SPs of 2/1 or
less and 475 of them lost their races. If you'd managed to lay them
at 2/1 or less (and you can often lay short SPs at the same or very
similar prices on the exchanges) then you'd be sitting on £15,000+
profit right now.
Something to think about.
And here's something else to think about...
After 18 'winners' from 21 bets at Cheltenham, don't
miss out on my Aintree advice
Before the festival I produced an exclusive report for members of my
Racing Angles service, 'Opposing the crowd at Cheltenham'. Following
the strategy that has produced 108 winning selections from 141 bets
since 2004.
And sure enough, it turned up another 18 successes from 21 bets this
time around.
And it doesn't stop there. Every Friday in Racing Angles I shortlist
major handicap races, as well as providing daily hints, tips and
angles on a members only website. But don't take my word for it...
"...Exceptional info in your notebook..."
'Exceptional info in your notebook on Friday 26th March, regarding
Richard Fahey's runners at the Doncaster meeting the following day.
I took 10/1 (win) on Friday for Irish Heartbeat, which was 4/1 on
the off, and 12/1 (EW) for Prime Exhibit in the Lincoln. Well done,
many thanks.'
John, email
"...What a good start to the season..."
'Hello Nick,
What a start to the season .I got on Irish Heartbeat, but took SP. I
also was on Prime Exhibit e.w., so couldn't have had a much better
start. Thanks.'
Barry, email
"...most useful individual I have had the luck to encounter..."
'Nick You are without doubt the single most useful individual I have
had the luck to encounter in all my years of following racing, and
yours are the only communications I read to the end. Thanks from a
grateful punter, who counts himself lucky to be on your mailing
list. Regards'
Sean, email
To read more readers comments, click here
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Grand National
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Until next time, be lucky.
7th April 2010
Good afternoon, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus....
- When your betting tools aren't match fit....
- Stats to get you ahead on day 1 at Aintree....
- Watch your email box on Friday....
- Give your PC a free MOT....
Getting my key betting tools match fit....
If the way you make your living is wholly and completely dependent
on your computer then you'll know what a pain in the backside it is
when things go wrong.
That's the position I found myself in over the Easter weekend - a
hundred miles from home, a PC refusing to play ball and giving me a
series of error messages I couldn't begin to fathom, no way into my
databases, no way into my notes and no access to my online betting
accounts. From a punting point of view it was an absolute nightmare.
Home-spun databases, Excel spreadsheets, electronic notebooks and
online access to stats, data and market information are essential to
my betting activity. Take those things away from me and I'm well and
truly out of the game.
Given that level of dependence on technology you might expect me to
be some kind of whizz-kid when it comes to troubleshooting any
problems I encounter.
You'd be wrong. I work with my PC every day. I've been totally
dependent on it - and its predecessors - for years. But on those
occasions when things go pear-shaped my 'solutions' rely more on the
power of prayer and blind luck than they do on any technical savvy I
possess.
Fortunately, on Monday a much put-upon friend took pity on me and
got the problems sorted - but only on the condition that I take one
simple step to ensure my PC is 'match-fit' going forward. I pledged
my compliance, took that simple step.... And I'm really glad I did.
You will be too. But more about that in a moment....
Stats to get you ahead on Day 1 at Aintree...
The Aintree Festival gets underway tomorrow and there are some
strong trends you'll want to bear in mind if you're betting in some
of the first-day races.
The Grade 1 Matalan Anniversary Novices' Hurdle is run at 2.35. Of
the last 10 winners 8 finished 1st or 2nd in one of their last two
starts. Also bear in mind that 9 of the last 10 winners contested a
race at the Cheltenham Festival. The market has proven to be a
decent guide to the winner in recent renewals - the last 5 winners
were sent off favourite. French horses have been the call over the
last ten years - taking 5 renewals despite providing less than a
quarter of the total runners over that period.
The Grade 2 Totesport Bowl Chase is run at 3.10. This is another
race where a run at the Cheltenham Festival appears to be a pre-
requisite for winning. The last 9 winners had raced at Cheltenham.
Horses priced 9/1 or shorter have won 8 of the last 10 renewals.
The John Smith's Fox Hunters' Chase is run at 3.45. The market
opinion has been a significant indicator of the winner in recent
renewals. 9 of the last 10 winners could be found in the first 3 in
the betting and none of the last ten winners went off bigger than
8/1. Recent good form is key. Of the last 10 winners 8 had won at
least one of their last two starts. Younger horses haven't fared too
well recently. The last 23 runners aged 8 or under have produced a
blank. Horses aged 9 to 11 have provided 9 of the last 10 winners.
John Smith's Red Rum Handicap Chase is run at 4.20. 6 of the last 8
winners of this event have been novices. 9 of the last 10 winners
fell into the 7-year-old to 9-year-old age group. The Grand Annual
Chase run at the Cheltenham Festival has been a fertile source of
contenders for this race - 5 of the last 8 winners had run in that
race prior to being successful here. Don't expect a big-priced
surprise. Horses going off at 14/1 or bigger have produced just a
single winner from the last 78 winners. Of the last 10 winners 9
went off 12/1 or shorter.
Watch your email box on Friday....
I'll be producing an additional issue of HRF this week - on Friday -
when I'll give you the lowdown on how to go about picking this
year's Grand National winner. I'll also be offering some advice on
the best way to bet in this one-of-a-kind race.... and offering up
the name of a horse that might be worth backing at big, big prices -
if it gets a run. I'll get this to you on Friday afternoon - so keep
an eye on your email box.
Update on 'Laying Odds-On Favourites' Service....
You might recall that at the beginning of March I highlighted a
laying service that I was mightily impressed by, that was opening
it's doors to new customers for the first time in two years.
It's a service run by a guy called Matt Watson - a guy I have a lot
of respect for - called simply, 'Laying Odds-On Favourites'.
In the last two years, members have helped themselves to over
£10,000 in profit to £100 levels stakes.
And in the last month, the service has posted the following figures:
- 17 winning lays (i.e. the horse lost) from 26 selections
- That's a 65% strike rate
- Generating profits of £865 to £100 level stakes
- Resulting in a 43% increase on a £2000 bank
So congratulations to those who took advantage of the exclusive HRF-
only month trial AND year long guarantee. And there's good news for
those who missed out...
There are still places left!
Click on the link below to find out how you can put it to the test
without risking a penny...
www.LayingOddsOnFavourites.com
Give your PC a Free Do-It-Yourself MOT....
It's a busy week for me this week with the Grand National to analyse
and plenty to play for in the other races on the 3-day Aintree card.
The last thing I need is another laptop issue.
But right now I'm pretty confident this machine - the tool I am 100%
reliant on - is in absolutely tip-top condition. I'm as sure as sure
can be that it won't be letting me down again anytime soon.
One reason I'm so confident is that last night while watching the
Barcelona v Arsenal game I subjected my laptop to a rigorous MOT
using some tools on a CD I was directed to by the friend who fixed
my computer.
I'm not going to kid you. It's a real geek fest - but it's a geek
fest tailor-made for technophobes like me who use Windows but don't
know how to get it to REALLY WORK. It's basically all the little
known tricks, tips, secrets and checklists (running to over 600
pages) any PC user can use to opitmise the performance of any PC.
And fix any problem quickly and easily.
My laptop has never handled so well - and so far I've only subjected
it to a maintenance health check (which couldn't be easier once you
know how).
Expertise made simple....
This isn't just basic stuff that comes as part of the Windows help
functions. This is the kind of information that only the computer
monkeys know about - tips the operating instructions don't even tell
you about.
Do you know how to use the autocorrect function to its full effect?
Know how to integrate new functions into Word? How to customise the
Word toolbar so it does what you want it to? Me neither - but now I
know where to find out?
Know how to tune your registry settings? Do you even know what they
are? I didn't. Can you solve problems caused by incorrect DLL
versions? How to configure your hard drive for optimum performance?
How to track down secret boot utilities? The 9 most common causes of
slow-moving computers - and how to fix them?
Windows Advisor is literally hundreds of tricks, tips and techniques
the eggheads use - without the complicated, impenetrable jargon.
It's basically Windows expertise in simple steps and straightforward
language even I can understand.
I'm impressed and I think you will be too. So I've arranged a FREE
6-week trial of the service for any Horse Racing Focus readers who
might be interested in brushing up on their Windows prowess. The
service is way too comprehensive to detail in its entirety in this
column. But you can get the lowdown right here.
Until Friday, be lucky.
9th April 2010
Good afternoon, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus....
- The profile of a Grand National winner....
- One to break the rules with....
The profile of a Grand National winner....
If you're looking for a blueprint for finding the winner of a Grand
National then you can do a lot worse than take a look at previous
winners. What you'll find is that they more or less share a common
set of characteristics and attributes. Taken together these
indicators represent a profile of what type of horse it takes to win
this race.
Any horse that measures up to this profile - or somewhere
appreciably near - is worthy of serious consideration come race day.
In a short series of steps we can apply the profile to the 40 runner
field and identify the few horses which best fit the parameters.
Step 1 - Exclude all horses aged younger than 9 and older than 10.
Young horses have a poor record in the race because they lack the
necessary stamina. It's been 68 years since a horse younger than 8
won the race. Stamina develops with age - explaining the dominance
of older horses. It pays to be in your prime - this is at the age of
9 or 10 for a horse. 10 of the last 13 winners were 9 or 10 years
old. 4 of the 1st five finishers in last year's race were 9 or 10
years old.
Step 2 - Exclude any horse burdened with 11-5 or more on its back.
Each of the last 10 winners was carrying 11 stone 5lb or less. Only
five post-war winners have won carrying more than 11st 5lbs and two
of those were Red Rum! Last year only one horse carrying more than
11st 5lbs finished in the 1st eight.
Step 3 - Exclude horses rated lower than 135. Each of the last 10
winners had an official rating of 135 or more. Low-rated horses
don't often win this race.
Step 4 - Exclude the inexperienced. Each of the last 10 winners had
run in 10 or more chases. It takes experience to build the
confidence required to handle the massive national obstacles. That
can only come from having jumped plenty of race course fences
before. No amount of schooling in the yard will make up for a lack
of racecourse experience. This is one reason why no novice has won
the Grand National since Mr What in 1958.
Step 5 - Opt for proven class. Each of the last 10 winners had won a
chase worth at least £17,000 and all had demonstrated their class by
previously landing a Listed or Graded (Class A or 1) race.
Step 6 - Demand proof of stamina. Each of the last 10 winners had
won over at least 3 miles.
The horses you are left with are animals in their prime with the
necessary experience over fences. They have shown sufficient ability
and potential to have earned an official rating of 135+ and are not
overburdened with weight. Each has proven its stamina by winning a
race run over 3 miles plus and demonstrated its class by winning a
G1 or C1 race and/or a race with £17,000 or more.
In short, the horses that remain on your list are those that most
closely fit the profile of a Grand National winner.
If you were looking for one who breaks these rules...
...and I'm all for breaking rules... then I'd consider backing
Cerium if the horse actually gets a run. It's on the reserve list
right now and needs two to come out in order to be guaranteed a run.
The trainer has said that he's prepared to scratch Mr Pointment from
the list of runners in order to help Cerium get in but still
requires another one to come out before 9am tomorrow morning to
guarantee a run.
It's not really surprising that connections are so keen for him to
get a run. After showing nothing for a couple of years he ran a
stormer to finish 5th in last year's Grand National - despite
fracturing his skull during the race.
The run literally came from nowhere. The horse had appeared to have
deteriorated since running for Paul Nicholls in his youth. I'm
prepared to take a punt that his unique run owed much to the unique
challenge the Grand National presents. And at 100/1, and if he gets
a run, I'm prepared to bet (each-way) that the big fences, the trip
and the occasion light him up again.
Happy picking...
Until next time, be lucky.
PS. Worries about soft going at Aintree on Saturday look to be
groundless at the moment. Earlier this afternoon Ruby Walsh
described the going as 'good all the way'. Something to bear in
mind.
15th April 2010
Good afternoon, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus....
- The curse of the Grand National....
- What chance a repeat win next year?
- Where listening to The Sun gets you....
The curse of the Grand National....
Don't Push It is quite rightly flavor of the month having just won the
Grand National and embedded his name in the public consciousness. But any
punter expecting the horse to become a rich source of future profits is
likely in for a disappointing shock. If Don't Push It is to win another
race then he must overcome the curse of the Grand National.
In recent years winning the big race has NOT been a precursor of
subsequent success. Far from being a launch pad to additional glory, a
Grand National win has come to represent the kiss of death to a horse's
career.
Maybe it's the effort required to win the race. Maybe the extreme trip
and the unique challenge of the National fences take a little too much
out of a horse - enough to ensure it never fully regains its spark.
Whatever the reason, it cannot be denied that recent winners of the Grand
National have struggled to get competitive under the weight of the
Aintree crown.
Last year's winner Mon Mome has failed to win in 6 subsequent runs. Yes,
he finished a decent 3rd in the Gold Cup behind Imperial Commander and
Denman - but his placed finished owed more to the way the race was run
(playing to his all-out stamina) than it did to Mon Mome's raw ability.
Comply Or Die won the National in 2008. He managed an excellent 2nd in
the following year behind Mon Mome but has failed to win in all 7 races
since his National success.
The 2007 winner, Silver Birch, has not won in 8 runs since the National.
2006 winner, Numbersixvalverde, didn't win in any of the 4 runs he had
after his National win.
2005 winner Hedgehunter returned to Aintree in 2006 to finish 2nd and
also finished 2nd in the Gold Cup a few weeks before hand (where, not
unlike Mon Mome, he had the race run to suit). Amberleigh House won the
big one back in 2004 - but he never won another race from 12 attempts.
In fact the only horse in recent years to win a race following his Grand
National win is Monty's Pass - and that was on the flat in his 1st race
back on track after the Aintree win. He had 10 more runs after that - and
failed to win a single one.
In total the winners of recent Grand Nationals - from 2003 on - have
contested 61 subsequent races between them and have won just ONE - an
event on the flat. If Don't Push It is to win another race the he must
overcome these stats which stand squarely against him.
Can we expect a repeat win next year?
Can Don't Push It return next year and retain his title?
Both Comply and Die and Hedgehunter have recently proven that a Grand
National winner can return the following year and run well in that
specific race in defence of his title. Both ran exceptionally well to
finish 2nd. There's two things to bear in mind next year if Don't
Push It turns out at Aintree next year.
One: next year Don't Push It will be 11-years-old. Twelve of the last 14
winners were 9 or 10 years old. 4 of the 1st five finishers in last
year's race were 9 or 10 years old. Six of the 1st 6 finishers this year
were 10-years of age. An 11-year-old is up against the stats. The 11-
year-old Black Apalachi ran really well this year to finish 2nd but he
found one younger horse too good for him on the day - and I'd expect
Don't Push It to find at least one younger horse too good for him next
year.
Two: this year Don't Push It carried as much weight as any of the last
ten winners carried to victory - going to post with 11-5 on his back. Any
more weight on his back next year will probably do for him. Only five
post-war winners have won carrying more than 11st 5lbs and two of those
were Red Rum! Last year only one horse carrying more than 11st 5lbs
finished in the 1st eight. This year it was one horse in the 1st nine -
Black Apalachi again.
Where listening to The Sun gets you....
If there's one newspaper I won't allow over the threshold of the front
door its The Sun. And last week provided just one more reason why.
'£50 million on the Nozic' screeched the Sun's headline on Saturday
morning. Nozic, the horse the Sun had leased for Grand National day, was
the subject of an incredible gamble - a gamble that would take £50
million out of the industry if the horse won.
The Sun described Nozic as being in 'scintillating form'. Bookies were
described as 'sweating' as Sun readers stampeded to get on the horse. In
one of those quotes that really get you cringing, Coral representative,
David Stevens, cooed lovingly: 'A win for Nozic will mean bookies face
their worst result in history - all because of The Sun.'
Please... somebody.... anybody.... pass me the big bucket. Note the
complete non-mention of the fact that Nozic had only won once from the 5
occasions he'd tried a trip longer than 3 miles and that his stamina was
in serious doubt.
No gamble materialized on Nozic - surprise surprise. If you watch the
exchanges as closely as I do then you'll know there wasn't a brass razoo
for the horse all the way to the off. And there never was. Maybe Sun
readers aren't the dumbass sheep their newspaper of choice chooses to
believe they are.
In the event Nozic unseated his rider at the 20th and the British betting
industry breathed once more. But pity any of those poor fools who read
the Sun's build up coverage of the National in the week running up to the
race - and actually believed they were reading opinions, judgements and
recommendations based on concrete fact and things that have actually
happened.
Some of those readers might well have gone ahead and invested money on
the basis of the rubbish they were presented with by the fairytale
writers, fabricators and fantasists who work on the Sun's racing desk.
Out of pocket and, in the word's of Coral's David Stevens, all because of
the Sun.
One thing we learnt from The Sun this week: get your racing information
from reliable sources that actually work with reality and deal in fact.
Until next time, be lucky.
22nd April 2010
Good afternoon, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus....
- The hot-to-trot strings on the flat....
- A profit-centre for exchange layers....
- Make a note of Hamish....
The hot-to-trot strings on the flat....
Looking at the top of the Flat Trainers' Championship table is one way to
identify yards which are in decent fettle. An overall strike-rate of 20%+
is what separates the yards in top form from those which are just
building up a head of steam and those which are simply not firing at all.
Mark Johnston's string is going well at the moment - 233 runners
producing 52 winners at a strike rate of 22.3%. Richard Hannon is another
handler with a yard going great guns right now - his first 113 runners of
the season have produced 26 winners at 23%. Brian Ellison is chugging
along nicely with an early-season strike rate of 21% - his first 78
runners producing 17 winners.
Other yards to hit the ground running this season are those of Richard
Fahey (32 winners from 176 runners at 18.2%), Kevin Ryan (29 winners from
158 runners at 18.4%), Brian Smart (18 winners from 92 runners at 19.6%),
George Baker (14 winners from 64 runners at 21.9%) and Ian Williams (15
winners from 69 runners at 21.7%).
The main Trainers' Championship table offers a view of a yard's form over
the entire season. Looking at the 14-day stats can paint a very different
picture and is more informative when it comes to identifying yards
running into a period of form (or, indeed, those yards dropping out of a
purple patch).
For example, Amanda Perrett sits well outside the top 30 in the overall
championship table and she could easily go overlooked. But her form
figures over the last 14 days suggest the Perrett yard is coming into
form. Her last 12 runners have produced 4 winners at 25% - and of those
12 runners 8 have placed.
Andrew Balding is another trainer outside the top 20 on the main list
(despite possessing a seasonal strike rate to date of almost 28%) - but
who is very competitive right now when judged over what his string has
achieved in the last 14 days. In the last fortnight his 17 runners have
produced 5 winners at just under 30% and 47% of those 17 runners have
placed during that period.
The main Trainers' Championship is settled on the basis of prize money.
Trainers with smaller strings and who lack firepower for the wealthier
races can be in the best of form but still sit well down in the
Championship rankings. R M Beckett is a case in point. He sits well down
in the main table but his form figures indicate a yard firing on all
cylinders. His 33 runners to date this season have produced 12 winners at
36.4%. His entries are well worth studying.
A profit centre for exchange layers....
Regular readers will know that I make a fair proportion of my personal
income laying horses (betting that the horses in question will lose) on
the betting exchanges. As such, I spend an awful lot of time identifying
specific groups of horses which produce plenty of losers at
short prices.
Races over 5, 6 and 7 furlongs are of specific interest to me as an
exchange layer. These races over short distances are over so quickly
there's no margin for error. If a horse dwells in the stalls, stumbles,
gets its heels clipped by an opponent, gets boxed in, buffeted or hits a
wall of horses then there is literally no time to recover and regain lost
ground. Mistakes and mishaps are generally terminal over these short
trips.
Luck plays a big part in these races. And bad luck can afflict a fancied
horse just as indiscriminately as it can afflict a big-priced rag. I
particularly like to oppose short price horses over short distances when
they face a big field of opposition. A big field brings me a twofold
advantage:
Firstly, a big field means more chaos in running - which, with a bit of
luck, might negatively impact the fancied horse I am opposing.
Secondly, a big field means there are simply more opponents for the
fancied horse to beat and more chances of at least one in the field being
good enough or lucky enough to beat the fancied horse home.
Simple but effective....
This approach is not rocket science. It's based more on common sense than
any rigorous form study or number crunching. But sometimes the simple,
straightforward angles are the most effective. And this turf season to
date I've made a nice profit laying short priced horses (those that go
off at 4/1) or less in turf races over 5, 6 or 7 furlongs with fields of
16 runners or more.
The angle doesn't provide a bet every day of the week - far from it - but
it's just a single approach in a portfolio of angles and if it produces a
profit over the season then I'll be happy. The evidence so far this
season suggests its worth looking out for qualifiers on this system.
This season to date 17 horses have been sent off at short prices in big-
field races over the shorter distances - and only 2 have won - producing
just under 10 points of profit for the exchange layers like me who
opposed them all at level stakes.
I never recommend backing or laying any angle blind. And the same applies
here. You have to judge each individual horse in each individual race on
its merits. Sometimes it won't even be possible to lay the horse in
question at 4/1 or less on the exchanges (sometimes the betting exchange
prices on shorter-priced runners are better than SP).
But the bottom line is that short-priced horses in big-field races over
shorter trips produce plenty of losers and horses meeting the criterion
are well worth consideration for laying purposes.
Make a note of Hamish....
Make a note of Hamish McGonagall. Last time out at Beverley on April 14th
he ran a really good race to finish 3rd in a Class 3 handicap over 5
furlongs. Running out of stall 5 his performance was noteworthy because
the other 4 horses occupying the first 5 finishing positions all raced
out of double-figure stalls (17, 12, 13 and 14).
Giving weight to the other horses finishing around him he was only beaten
3 lengths by the winner. Given a double-figure draw he might well have
improved on his performance - and it's my view that Tim Easterby's 5-
year-old is better than the bare form suggests.
The Beverley race was Hamish McGonagall's first appearance on the race
track for 172 days and we can expect him to come on for it. The horse has
finished 1st or 2nd in big field sprints 10 times in his career to date -
and 9 of those finishes have been achieved when running off a break of 30
days or less. If he's out pretty quickly then he could well be a betting
proposition.
He can handle good to soft ground but I'd prefer to see him on good or
better - where most of his best ratings have been achieved. I prefer him
at 5f rather than 6f. All his 4 career wins have come over the minimum
trip. He has not won over 6f in 6 attempts.
He's won in big fields - and has plenty of decent form in races where
he's surrounded by opponents - but I wouldn't be scared of backing Hamish
McGonagall in smaller fields either. He likes to race prominently and can
win when allowed to dominate the pace in small fields - 2 of his 4 career
wins have been from the front in fields of 5 and 7 runners. He's proven
himself capable of winning on the straight or going left. He's yet to be
tested going right-handed.
I believe Hamish McGonagall is a winner waiting to happen and hopefully
he can secure us a profit over the next few weeks.
Until next time, be lucky.
28th April 2010
Good afternoon, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus....
- One last lesson from the jumps season....
- The Montjeu progeny I'm keeping an eye on....
One last lesson from the jumps programme....
The Grand National is a severe test of a horse - and it takes
significant time to recover. Don't let anybody tell you any
different. It's difficult for any horse to come out again in the
same season and get competitive - there simply isn't sufficient time
to get back into prime condition between races.
But that doesn't stop trainers and connections sending their
National runners out again in the days and weeks directly following
the National meeting at Aintree.
It's certainly been the case this year. Almost a quarter of the
field (9 horses) that lined up the Grand National on April 10th have
appeared on a racecourse since.
Hello Bud, Piraya, Ollie Magern, The Package, Irish Raptor, My Will,
Ellerslie George, Backstage and Nozic have all been asked to run
again - less than 3 weeks after their engagement with the biggest
fences anywhere in the world over a grueling 4 and a half mile trip.
Granted, of those horses mentioned above only Hello Bud (5th) and
Piraya (13th) actually finished in the National. Ollie Magern pulled
up two from home at Liverpool. Irish Raptor fell at the 14th, My
Will fell at the 4th and again, this time conclusively, at the 20th.
Backstage and Nozic both unseated their riders at the 20th fence.
Ellerslie George unseated his rider at the 23rd whilst The Package
jettisoned his pilot at the 19th.
Though that last named 7 didn't actually complete the full 4 miles
and 4 furlongs, they were still going deep into the race and that
must surely have taken a physical toll?
The evidence of their subsequent runs suggests this is the case.
None of these 9 horses even got competitive in the races they've
contested since Aintree. On the face of it Ollie Magern's 2nd at
Perth looks like a decent effort but there were only 4 runners in
the race and Ollie Magern was beaten 14 lengths by the winner.
The Package ran okay in Saturday's bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown
finishing 5th and beaten just over 18 lengths. His jumping was
untidy and he was unable to raise his game to the standard he
produced at Cheltenham earlier in the season. Irish Raptor ran in
the same race and finishing 7th and beaten over 27 lengths. His
challenge faded badly 3 fences from home.
Hello Bud was pulled up in the bet365 Gold Cup. So too were Nozic,
My Will and Piraya who was wearing a visor for the first time, went
off way too quickly and ran out of steam pretty quickly. Ellerslie
George unseated his rider early on in a race at Punchestown.
9 runners coming out of the gruelling Grand National produced 9
clearly sub-par performances - and my best guess is that the two
things are related. Okay, this insight into the recovery time
necessary for Grand National horses will not lead us to back any
winners. But if it is noted and kept in mind it will help us to
identify horses we can confidently oppose next year.
Montjeu runners to take note of....
Popmurphy, Changingoftheguard, Fame and Glory, Jukebox Jury, Lady
Artemisia and Montaff are all on my horses-to-keep-an-eye-on list
for the upcoming turf season.
Why? Because they are all 4-year-olds sired by Montjeu. The
significance of this is that for the past few seasons the 4-year-old
progeny of the Irish sire have demonstrated the ability to win and
produce profit for backers when stepped up to the real staying
trips.
Since 2006 there have been 27 sons and daughters of Montjeu which
have been stepped up in trip to between 2 miles and 2m2f. Between
them they've had 51 runs in such races. 12 of them have won at a
strike rate of 23.5% - producing a profit of 47.38 points for
backers.
Montjeu is known as a great sire of middle-distance runners. That's
why these longer distance runners could well be falling under a lot
of punters' radar systems.
Popmurphy is clearly highly thought of - and holds an entry for the
Ascot Gold Cup in June - run over 2miles 4 furlongs. Connections
obviously feel the horse will relish the step-up in trip.
Running plans for the Changingoftheguard are unclear at the moment -
but there is encouragement in his record that he too will benefit
from a step up in race distance. His best rating to date was earned
over the longest trip he has faced to date - 1m6f.
Lady Artemisia is another with the right kind of profile to show
improvement when stepped up in trip. Her best rating was also
achieved at the longest trip faced to date - 1m6f.
Fame and Glory is one we might see stepped up to the 2 mile mark
later in the season. For now he is aimed at the Coronation Cup at
Epsom in June over 12 furlongs. But if he steps up to the 2 mile
mark later in the season then don't be surprised if he stays and
takes a prize.
Jukebox Jury is another being targeted at middle distances for the
time being - also holding an entry in the Coronation Cup.
Montaff is another whose connections think highly of him. He runs in
the Sagaro Stakes this afternoon at Ascot (4pm). He's also holds
entries for the Gold Cup in June, and the Yorkshire and Chester Cups
in May over 1m6f and 2m4f respectively. I would be surprised if he
didn't take one of the big staying events over the summer.
Until next time, be lucky.
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