Directory of Past issues - August 2009

11th August - Two horses to mark your cards with

18th August - What we can learn from the bloke in the pub

25th August - Stats you can't afford to ignore at these three courses

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11th August 2009

Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus...

• Two performances that might be undervalued...
  
• The lowdown on Brave Prospector...
  
• The lowdown on Striking Spirit...

Two performances that might be undervalued...

In last Sunday's issue I talked about two horses that ran well in
the Stewards' Cup at Goodwood despite starting the race from stalls
which appear to have been disadvantaged.

Horses that overcome poor circumstances to run well in a race are
worth taking note of. We can expect them to be even more
competitive in future races - especially when conditions and
circumstances work with them rather than against them.

• Brave Prospector ran out of stall 6 to finish 7th after
  becoming detached from the pack on the stands side and running much
  of his race from a position well off the lead. To fight his way
  back into contention with a rattling finishing effort - after
  starting the race in a far from ideal stall - suggests he might go
  even better in a future race with things more his own way.

• Striking Spirit finished 8th running out of stall 27. Horses
  drawn around him finished in the bottom half of the field -
  suggesting he won that 'race within a race' by some margin. With a
  better draw, it's reasonable to assume Striking Spirit would have
  run even better. His 8th place finish is better than it might look
  at first glance on paper.

Putting the intelligence together...

I'll be looking out for these two horses and noting their future
entries. As a punter my hope would be that the wider market fails
to notice these good runs from poor circumstances and undervalues
the horses in subsequent races.

That doesn't mean I'll be backing the horses blind. Far from it. At
this point my interest lies solely in profiling both the animals
and establishing circumstance and conditions under which each
excels, produces its best performances, proves competitive or runs
badly. I only want to bet either horse when it is confronted by
circumstances that it's proved itself on and I can get a price that
I feel underestimates its true chances of winning the race.

Brave Prospector and Striking Spirit have a couple of things in
common. Both are 4-years-old and both were sired by Oasis Dream out
of American mares - Simply Times and Aspiring Diva respectively.
Oasis Dream was a high-class sprinter, winning the 6f Group 1 July
Cup at Newmarket in 2003 and the 5f Group 1 Nunthorpe at York later
the same year.

But that's where the similarities end...

The lowdown on Brave Prospector...

Brave Prospector has been trained by Peter Chapple-Hyam for the
duration of his racing career. He's run 12 times and won once at
York over 6 furlongs in June last year. He was tried 5 times in
Listed and Group class company - and five times he fell well short
of the level required. 

Having looked closely at his form over the last couple of days,
it's safe to conclude that the horse acts on good surfaces and with
cut in the ground. Six furlongs is definitely his best trip. Five
of the top six ratings he's received (on a ratings service I use)
have been achieved at that trip. He's been tried at 7 furlongs
three times and been found wanting.

Big fields are no problem. He's run 6 times in fields of 14 runners
or more and been competitive enough to finish in the top-quarter 4
times. Looking at performances where Brave Prospector finished in
the top quarter of the field also reveals that the horse needs to
be fresh to run well.

Brave Prospector is of particular interest when he's returning to
the racecourse after a break of just 3 weeks or less. When this
criterion is met Brave Prospector has form figures 1442 - just
about the best 4 performances he's put in. The colt ceases to be of
interest after 6 weeks off the track. His record after breaks of
more than 6 weeks is poor - 000 - three duck eggs.

One win from 12 runs looks poor on the face of it. But take out the
Group and Listed races where he was clearly in the wrong company
(and not always running over 6f). And take out those runs where he
was returning to the track after a long layoff.  Then his record
looks more like that of a potential winner-in-waiting with form
figures of 42147 - all competitive performances. 

So, ideally we want Brave Prospector back on the track quickly -
over 6f, in handicap company, on good or soft ground, and in a good
sized field. Right now the horse has no entries - but over the next
fortnight its worth keeping an eye out for any plans to run him
because he is of definite betting interest.

The lowdown on Striking Spirit...

Striking Spirit has had 14 runs and notched up 3 wins - his better
win-to-run ratio a result of not being tested against genuine Group
and Listed class animals. Striking Spirit started his career in the
yard of Barry Hills. In May this year Dandy Nicholls acquired the
horse and pretty quickly passed him on to one of his owners.

Nicholls is a sprint specialist and has plundered more than his
fair share of the big sprint handicaps over recent seasons -
notably improving many of the charges he has inherited from other
trainers.

Nicholls appears to be working the magic with Striking Spirit. In 7
runs for Nicholls, Striking Spirit has won twice, finished 7th of
26 in the Stewards' Cup and 7th of 26 in the Wokingham at Royal
Ascot. His four best speed ratings have also been achieved during
his time with Nicholls.

It's worth noting that whilst the horse has not disgraced itself on
good going, and has demonstrated it can handle cut, there's a
suspicion the horse might be at its most comfortable on firmer
ground. Striking Spirit has raced 5 times on surfaces officially
described as firmer than good - winning three of the races and
finishing 7th of 26 in the Wokingham in another.

Like Brave Prospector, Striking Spirit has done well after short
breaks from racing. But Striking Spirit has also proved he can come
back competitive off a longer break. He won first time up for
Nicholls in May after being off the track for 225 days. He's also
finished 6th of 17 after 187 days off and 6th of 18 after 104 days
off the track.

Despite having no entries right now, Striking Spirit is one for the
notebook. His recent improvement combined with his trainer's
ability to improve sprinters and take big prizes with them suggests
his time may not be far away.

I had intended to give you details of a method you can use to lay
sprinters for profit on the exchanges but space has defeated me.
I'll bring you those details next week.
 
Until then, be lucky.

18th August 2009

Good afternoon, friends,

In today’s Horse Racing Focus….

• Looking for inspiration in a pint of mild….
• Arm yourself to the teeth with angles….
• Short-priced 2-year-olds and Michael Stoute….

Looking for inspiration in a pint of mild….

It’s my belief that where race betting is concerned, as with most other processes in life, an organized and logical approach is far superior to a disorganized or random alternative and will, over the long term, produce the best outcome. Not all punters agree. And plenty of them, consciously or subconsciously, attempt to disprove the theory every time they place a bet.

On Saturday I found myself watching one of these pioneers in action. Sitting at the bar nursing a pint of mild he opened his copy of the Daily Express and turned to the racing page. For the next few minutes he ran the stub of his index finger down the list of runners for every race on all the day’s cards.

Now maybe this guy has an A1 mind. It’s maybe the case that behind his deeply furrowed and hooded brow sits a brain with the power, processing speed and performance of a NASA supercomputer – an extraordinary mental database containing every fact, figure and formline of every horse in training. Maybe his neural pathways were on fire as he interrogated and computed the information – forming a considered view of each horse and each race in a matter of milliseconds.

If that’s the case, then I’m doing our man a disservice. But the likelihood is that he’d come to the day’s racing ‘cold’. Rather than having an angle or a series of angles with which to approach the day’s racing, he was instead going through the runners and waiting for some kind of inspiration to strike.

Maybe he was looking for horses he’d heard of before or, more likely, horses with names that had some personal significance – Mild Drinker, Clueless or Clutchingatstraws, for example.

Whatever he was doing I didn’t much fancy his chances. Guesswork is guesswork however you dress it up. The punter entering into battle with the bookmaker armed only with the product of his guesswork is like the man engaging in a gunfight armed only with his lad’s water pistol. The odds are that he’s going to end up on the wrong side of the divide that separates the winners from the losers.

Arm yourself to the teeth with angles….

An objective angle based on hard facts and cold statistical analysis is the punter’s equivalent of a high-powered, pump action, sawn-off shotgun. It’s something comforting to go to war with.

If you know, as a result of diligent study and analysis, that a specific trainer has an impressive record of winning with his chasers when sending them out for their seasonal debut and that those runners have consistently produced a profit for punters – then that’s an angle that can inform your future bets.

Another trainer might have a particularly poor record with short-priced runners – failing to get many of them past the post first despite the market buzz about the horse. That too is an angle – not for the backer but more for the exchange layer who can oppose that trainer’s future short-priced runners safe in the knowledge that history shows the percentages are on his side. After all if you knew something had happened 8 times out of 10 then you’d likely bet on it happening again?

A solid angle focuses the punter’s mind on specific horses – horses that represent good bets based on historical evidence. The punter armed with an angle (or angles) that puts the percentages on his side never has to look for ‘inspiration’ like our man at the bar. The informed punter with angles in his armoury never has to resort to glorified guesswork, intuition, hunches or throwing darts at the card.

Angles don’t grow on trees though. They have to be mined like gold. That takes time. It takes work, effort, application, blood, sweat, tears and toil. Not everybody is in a position to do what’s required. I’ve got a solution to that which I’m going to be telling you about in an upcoming issue. But that’s for another day… so stay tuned….

For now, I want to give you exchange layers out there an angle to go to war with…. And show you how focusing on a specific group of Michael Stoute runners might have given you the funds to pay for a couple of holidays in the sunshine over the last five years.

Stoute’s short-priced 2-year-olds….

I never get involved in backing 2-year-old horses. There are just too many imponderables with young horses whose potential, preferences and profiles are simply unknown. But I do take an interest as an exchange layer. Why? Because there’s often a lot of hype surrounding this group of racers – hype that pushes down the price of every juvenile vaguely suspected of being a potential superstar. As you’d expect, most fail to live up to their billing.

Let’s just take a look at this season as an example. The following table relates to the performances of 2-year-old runners in Great Britain in specific price bands:

Key
SP = Starting Price
R = Runners
W = Winners
SR% = Strike Rate %
£1 Stake = Profit to £1 Stakes

The figures are not right up to date but up until approximately a week ago (I have to do some work to update my databases) you could have made a profit since March laying all the 2-year-old runners in any of the price bands.

It’s a lot of bets, requiring effort and time – but the profits are there for those prepared to make the investment. Laying all 2-year-old runners going off at 3/1 or less to a £100 level stake would have netted you a profit (minus commission) or over £5000. And that’s just one angle.

Now let’s take a look at Michael Stoute and his short-priced 2-year-old runners from 2005 to date. Plenty of punters back Stoute blindly on the basis that if it’s a Stoute runner it must be good. Being in receipt of such widespread blind support it’s reasonable to assume that plenty of his young and unexposed runners will go off at short prices which overvalue their true ability.

The figures back up the assumption. Had you layed every single Stoute 2-year-old runner going off at 4/1 or less over the last 5 years to a £100 level stake you’d have had somewhere approaching £5000 worth of profit to spend. Avoiding the odds-on shots (those really fancied animals probably in receipt of stable money) would have improved that return.

‘Yeah? And? So? What? I don’t want to wait 5 years to make that profit. I want that profit over a month.’ I hear these kinds of complaints all the time – but they miss the point. Stoute’s short-priced 2-year olds are just one single angle. Imagine having a dozen such angles in your armoury. Imagine having a dozen streams of that kind of profit.

I’ll be bringing you some news shortly about how you can get yourself into that kind of position. In the meantime watch out for those short-priced Stoute juveniles. Laying them on the exchanges will bring you a consistent stream of profits over the long-term. 

Until next time, be lucky.

25th August 2009

Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus...

• £12,306 of profit since Jan 1st 2003...
  
• Three courses it pays to concentrate on...
  
• One from the notebook...

£12,306 to the good since January 1st 2003...

Last week I wrote about the importance of arming yourself with a
string of profitable betting angles. Having just a few consistent
profit-turning strategies in your portfolio can make a significant
difference to the outcome you experience with your betting over the
long-term. A lot of little things add up to a big result. That's a
fact.

Now here's an angle I expect to deliver the goods over the next 8
weeks or so. If I say that with total confidence it's because this
straightforward strategy is proven - long-term. Had you been
exploiting this angle to the full since January 1st 2003 to a £100
level stake you'd be £12,306 to the good with it right now.

It's late August, we're a matter of days from the early stages of
the winter jumps programme and it's about this time of year that my
thoughts turn to Nigel Twiston-Davies and his string.

I don't know what it is with the water in the Twiston-Davies yard
but September and October are definitely the two months of the year
when his runners excel. Plot his overall performance results on a
graph and September/October-time represents the peak - year after
year. During the next eight weeks or so ignoring his runners can
deprive you of some profitable action.

Twiston-Davies traditionally hits the ground running...

Take a look at the table below. It shows the performance of the
Twiston-Davies string in every September and October since 2003:

Okay, he's had 4 losing months from the 12 months under review - 3
of those months producing only negligible deficits. In seven of the
individual months the profits achieved for punters might be
described as 'significant' at best and 'more-than-acceptable' at
the very least.

We get a more complete sense of why we should be backing Twiston-
Davies runners at this time of year when we look at a second table
- where the above figures are consolidated:

The figures pretty much speak for themselves and require little
elaboration from me or anybody else. That's the wonderful thing
about numbers. At a glance they paint an unconfused picture and
provide us with an instant sense of scale. We can see - instantly -
that in September and October the percentage call is to be onside
with Twiston-Davies runners rather than against them.

That said, 484 bets feels like an awful lot of bets - even when you
factor in that they would have been placed over a 5-year-period.
I'm not one for placing hundreds and hundreds of bets. I love my
racing and I like making money with my betting - but I've no
inclination to be a 24/7 punting junkie. Even the biggest racing
fans can get to feel a little shopworn when the betting merry-go-
round starts to become a treadmill.

Courses for the Twiston-Davies horses...

So, when I find a decent angle, I like to find the smaller sweet
spots within it - to make the betting workload a little more
manageable. And, where Twiston-Davies is concerned, there are three
specific courses of particular interest to me. This is not to
ignore his other runners. Not at all. What I am saying is that
certain of his runners - those at Perth, Market Rasen and Warwick -
are runners I will make most effort to scrutinise closely. 

Look at the table below and you'll see why. Once again, the figures
relate to performances from 1st January 2003 to present day.

Thinking about some of Twiston-Davies's bigger-name runners in
recent years - eg Ballyfitz, Battlecry, Florida Dream, Irish Raptor
and Ollie Magern - he seems to excel in training speedy, agile
types that race prominently and are suited to sharp-turning tracks
(as opposed to long-striding galloping types that need long
straights to build up momentum and speed).

So it's not really surprising that his runners go well at Perth,
Warwick and Market Rasen given that all three tracks offer his
speedy and prominent racers exactly what they need.

At Warwick and Market Rasen there's not much to choose between the
Twiston-Davies hurdlers and chasers - certainly not enough to
justify focusing on one group over the other. Perth, however, seems
to be a favoured track for his younger runners. His hurdlers go
very well there as the table below illustrates:

But you should also pay very close attention to the stable's bumper
runners when sent to the Scottish track. In the last 5 years
Twiston-Davies has sent 8 to the track and 6 of them have obliged
for backers by winning.

Perth has meetings on the 23rd and 24th September. Market Rasen has
meetings on the 26th and 27th. It doesn't pay to be too set in
stone and I'll also be taking an interest in the meeting at Warwick
on the 4th November and at the meeting at Market Rasen on the 8th
November - at which point I'll have another look at Twiston-Davies
to establish whether or not his string has flattened out.

One from last season's notebook...

There are 313 horses in the Twiston-Davies yard at the moment.
Looking through my notes from the last jumps season there's one
runner in particular that I'll be keeping a weather-eye on
throughout the upcoming season: Grand Slam Hero.

The 8-year-old only landed in the Twiston-Davies yard in May where
he was immediately pitched into 3-mile plus hurdle events - a step
up in distance from what he'd been doing with previous handlers. He
raced twice winning both times. The last time he won unextended and
there's scope for more improvement and additional winning
performances. In the 2nd race he beat 5 horses that have
subsequently gone on and won themselves - franking Grand Slam
Hero's form.

The horse has won 5 times in his career - wearing a tongue-strap on
every occasion. His record without the strap suggests he really
does need it - with zero wins from 7 efforts.

The horse also appears to need a smallish field to prevail. In
fields of more than 10 runners his record reads 0/12. In fields of
10 or less he's won 5/12. So I won't be backing him in the hustle
and bustle of a big field. But at 3m+ in a smallish field then he
starts to get very interesting.

Until next time, be lucky.