Directory of Past issues - August 2011

4th August - The lowdown on Monsieu Bond

11th August - The daddy of good handicaps at York

15th August - The right way to play Stoute's and Goldolphin's handicappers at York

24th August - Angles that make King's Best progeny pay...

31st August - Profit from King's Best progeny in the handicaps

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4th August 2011

Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus....

• The lowdown on Monsieur Bond....
• Making the most of the sweet spot....
• Two 3-year-old Bond runners worth noting....

The lowdown on Monsieur Bond....

The name Monsieur Bond might make it sound like I'm talking about
some French secret agent but I'm actually talking about the sire of
Hoof It - Saturday's Stewards Cup winner.

In my Racing Angles column on Tuesday I outlined just what was so
remarkable about Hoof It's performance on Saturday, what we can
expect the horse to achieve from here and why. But today I want to
focus on his father - more specifically the race record of his
progeny and whether or not we can identify any angles of attack it
will pay to use when betting his runners.

Even the most cursory study of the stats reveals a useful
observation: the shrewd and discerning race punter will focus his
attention most closely on Monsieur Bond's older runners. Here's why:

The sire's 2-year-old runners are hit and miss. Only a small
percentage of them win. Since the beginning of the 2005 flat season
518 of his juvenile progeny have been sent to post. Just 38 have
returned triumphant - at a measly 7.3%. Backing them blind would
result in big level stakes losses. And had you backed them all you'd
have endured - at the worst point - a losing streak consisting of
some 66 runners.

The performance of Monsieur Bond's 3-year-old progeny is comparable.
He's had 499 3-year-old runners since the beginning of the 2005
season and 37 have won at a strike rate of 7.4%. Level stakes losses
are big and a longest losing sequence of 46 runners would have
tested the mettle of any blind backer.

But with the 4-year-old and older runners it's a different picture.
There are less of these because 11-year-old Monsieur Bond only had
his first 4-year-old runners in 2010. To date 263 have gone to post
with 39 winning at a strike rate of 14.8%. Level stakes profits
amount to 37 points. And if you discount the all-weather runners
aged 4 and older then you reduce the number of bets significantly
without affecting the profits - 20 winners from 128 runners at 15.6%
and a level stakes surplus of 35 points.

Removing the all-weather runners from the equation is a no brainer
given Monsieur Bond's overall record with runners on the synthetic
surfaces - his last 563 sand runners have produced just 46 winners
at 8.2%.

Making the most of the sweet spot....

It may be that Monsieur Bond's older runners produce the best
figures simply because time has sorted the good from the bad.
Progeny that are still racing at 4-years-old obviously have
something about them and their performance figures as a group are
not adulterated by the stats of lesser progeny that have fallen by
the wayside and been retired from racing (which is not the case in
the 2-year-old and 3-year-old categories where the poorer
performances of lesser animals are lumped in with those of the
better horses).

Whatever the underlying reasons behind the spike in the stats it's
clear that race punters can play Monsieur Bond-sired horses to best
effect by concentrating their efforts and their focus on his 4-year-
old and older runners on the turf.

I subjected what I call the 'sweet spot' group to closer scrutiny -
in an effort to identify additional and specific angles of attack we
can deploy in the marketplace. Here's what I found...

1. Stick to the sprint trips short of a mile. As you'd expect of
   a sire with a Stamina Index of just 6.6f Monsieur Bond is not a
   prolific producer of stayers. Fifteen of his twenty 4-year-old plus
   winners won at trips between 5 and 7 furlongs. The 15 wins came from 87 runs at a rate of 17.2. Backed blindly to level stakes profits
   amount to 39.5 points. Monsieur Bond has produced winners at a mile
   - 4 wins (two of them courtesy of one horse, Hip Hip Hooray) so you
   can't discount his progeny over 8f. But any further and I'd give
   them the swerve. So far at trips beyond a mile his older runners
   have scored just once in 17 attempts.

2. Stick to runners on good ground and faster. That's the type of
   surface that seems to suit Monsieur Bond's runners best. 17 of his
   20 older winners were running on either good or good to firm ground.
   As is usually the case in racing there are no hard and fast rules.
   Monsieur Bond has produced older winners on a softer surface. His
   record reads 1 from 10 on soft or heavy and 2 from 20 on good to
   soft (3 from 30 overall on ground softer than good). So whilst his
   runners can't be completely discounted with cut underfoot the
   percentage play is to focus on those horses running on better
   ground.

3. Monsieur Bond has a pretty decent track record of producing
   winning older fillies. His performance figures read 8 winners from
   58 such runners. That only amounts to a strike rate of 13.7% but
   there's been profit in the girls - 18 points when backed blindly to
   level stakes. His fillies which stay in training at 4-years-old are
   worth looking out for.

Two 3-year-old Bond runners worth noting....

This year's 3-year-olds are next season's older runners and working
on the principle that it's the better horses which will go forward
to campaign successfully as 4-year-olds we can do ourselves a big
favour and take note of the Racing Post ratings being achieved by
this year's 3-year-old crop.

The 3-year-old Monsieur Bond filly that attracts my attention is
Geoff Oldroyd's Ladies Are Forever. She's already announced her
presence on the stage with a Group 3 win at York last month where
she earned a rating of 111 in a pretty decent time and off a fast
pace.

This season she's produced 5 of the best 10 Racing Post ratings
achieved by a Monsieur Bond 3-year-old. If she stays in training
next year she's just the type to add further luster to the
statistical record of his 4-year-old runners.

The other 5 best Racing Post ratings achieved by a Monsieur Bond 3-
year-old this season have been assigned to performances by Brian
Meehan's colt, Move In Time. He's had 14 career runs to date and
produced just 2 wins which doesn't set any pulses racing. But he's
been racing ostensibly in Listed and lower Group company that might
just be a little too hot for him.

His record would suggest so with his 8 runs in Listed and Group
races drawing a blank. His ratings suggest he's good enough to win
races when racing at the right level. He's probably too high in the
weights right now but he's worth monitoring for the future.

That's how the Monsieur Bond runners look from here.

Until next time, be lucky.

11th August 2011

Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus....

• The lowdown on the Knavesmire....
• The daddy of quality handicaps at York....
• The key stats that help point the way....
• Making the most of the 4-day festival....

The lowdown on the Knavesmire....

Next week sees York racecourse - otherwise known as the Knavesmire -
host it's Yorkshire Ebor Festival.

The meeting runs from Wednesday 17th to Saturday 20th and boasts
some high-quality Group 1 contests.... the International Stakes over
10f for horses aged 3-years-old and up.... the Yorkshire Oaks over
12f for fillies and mares aged 3-years-old and older.... And the
Nunthorpe Stakes over the minimum 5f trip where the best 2-year-olds
go up against the older sprinters.

On Saturday it's a handicap race that takes top billing - the Ebor
which is contested over the 1m6f trip. It's one of my favourite
races - one in which I've had some nice touches over the years - and
I'm looking forward to finding a runner at a nice price again this
time round.

With 4 days of racing to look forward to at the course this week
feels like the ideal time to crunch a few stats  with the objective
of finding ourselves a few steers and identifying a decent edge or
two to help us secure a few points worth of profit....

I've been mining the handicap stats and I've identified a rich seam
of potential profit....

The daddy of quality handicaps at York....

There are 8 decent handicaps at the York meeting next week.... seven
of them are Class 2 affairs and the other is a Class 3.

What I call the 'industrial' yards - those with a high volume of
inhabitants and runners - will no doubt be out in force contesting
these races.

The table below outlines how some of the biggest yards in racing
have performed in Class 2 and Class 3 handicap events at York since
May 2005. Making sense of which of their runners are 'live' and
which are making up the numbers is clearly a job for a professional
investigator - and the strike rates illustrate what you are up
against if you lose your mind and decide to back runners from any of
these yards blindly.

Personally I'm more interested in runners from yards which don't
send a huge volume of runners to the North Yorkshire course - but
which nevertheless manage to land the better quality handicaps with
unerring frequency.

Take John Dunlop for instance. There's no doubt about it. He's the
daddy when it comes to landing decent handicaps at York - Class 2
and Class 3 events.

He doesn't send many up the M1 from his West Sussex base - just 26
since May 2005. But he sure makes them pay. Ten of that 26 won (an
additional two placed 2nd) at a strike rate of 38.5% and have
produced a 52 point profit at level stakes for punters.

The stats suggest that if he saddles one in a handicap next week
then it is well worth looking at. Here are a few more stats that
might prove useful or helpful when you are running the rule over any
Dunlop-trained handicapper sent to York next week (all the stats are
based on Dunlop's record in Class 2 and Class 3 handicaps run at
York since May 2005)....

The key stats that help point the way.....

• Take relative newcomers over the veterans. Seven of Dunlop's
  ten York handicap winners were lightly raced having had no more than
  10 runs. Focusing on the runners with just 10 career runs or less
  would have produced 7 winners from 17 runners and a 35.5 point
  profit to level stakes.

• Weight is not a bar to his runners winning. Seven of his 10
  winners were amongst the 1st 4 in the handicap (carrying the heavier
  weights) suggesting Dunlop had kept a little in hand on the
  handicapper. Focusing on his handicap runners in saddlecloth numbers
  1, 2, 3 and 4 (however many runners were in the field) would have
  produced 7 winners from 15 bets and 38.5 points of profit.

• Horses going to York off a long layoff are not the best bets.
  Eight of Dunlop's 10 winners were racing at York off the back of a
  28-day break or shorter. Focusing on runners heading to York off a
  4-week layoff or shorter would have produced 8 winners from 20
  runners and a 38 point profit to level stakes.

• Dunlop has had boy power. The stats reveal that Dunlop has
  done better with his male handicappers than with his females. All 10
  York winners were colts, horses or geldings. His 5 female runners in
  handicaps over the review period all lost.

• Hamdan Al Maktoum's runners are significant. He owned 6 of the
  10 winners over the review period - and the 6 winners came from just
  11 runners and produced 37 points of profit to level stakes. 

The bottom line: Dunlop's handicap runners are live contenders next
week - the lightly raced, the racecourse fit, the male runners and
Maktoum-owned runners are of special interest. Note: the stats
reveal that weight has been no bar to Dunlop's York handicappers
winning.

There are one or two additional trainers you want to be aware of in
the good handicaps at York - along with a few pointers on how to
isolate their most likely 'live' contenders. I'll be back on Monday
next week - earlier than usual - to ensure you have that information
to hand before the Festival begins.

To finish off today I want to give you a heads-up on how you can get
your hands on some crucial statistical insight into the big Group 1
races set to be contested at the Knavesmire next week....

Making the most of the 4-day Festival....

If you're looking to make the most of the Ebor Festival this year
then you might want to consider enlisting the help of my Racing Angles service...

I'll be providing York-focused advice and analysis from Monday to
Friday next week - in the form of Winning Profiles for the big Group
1 races and the Ebor handicap.

Year on year the biggest races on the turf are won by horses that
conform to a common statistical make-up (or at least the larger part
of it). They share a similar set of attributes. They boast common
characteristics. They've achieved similar things on the race track.
They've met specific standards. In other words, they have all the
right credentials.

Put together these commonalities represent a blueprint - a profile
of what it takes to win the specific race under review. I call it
the Winning Profile - and it's a useful tool with a sharp cutting
edge that can inform bets in future renewals of the same race.

On Monday and Tuesday I'll be providing detailed Profiles outlining
exactly what it takes to win the 4 big races at York - the
International Stakes, the Yorkshire Oaks, the Nunthorpe and the
Ebor.

Later in the week I'll be putting that advice into practice and
isolating the horses in each race which measure up closest to the
Profile criteria.

It's a method we've enjoyed some success with over the last few
months and right now is a very good time to get onboard - my
publisher is offering a FREE no-commitment 28-DAY TRIAL of the
service and that's on-top of a 12-month money-back guarantee if you
do decide to stay on as a paying member.

Take a look at how the service works, what you'll be getting and how
you can try it out free of charge and without obligation right here.
I very much hope you'll decide to get onboard Racing Angles for next
week and I very much look forward to welcoming you to the
readership.

Until Monday, be lucky.

15th August 2011

Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus....

• The Dunlop handicap squad for York....
• Four additional handlers to note at York....
• Get my York 'Winning Profiles'...

The Dunlop handicap squad for York....

In last week's column I highlighted the record of John Dunlop's
runners in the better class handicaps (Class 2 and 3) at York where
the Ebor Festival gets underway a little later this week.

At the time I wasn't sure if he'd actually have any runners in the
handicaps events set to be contested over the next few days. Mr
Dunlop doesn't send too many up the M1 to York. But when he does he
makes it pay - with the last 26 runners producing 10 winners at
38.5% and a 52 point profit when backed to level stakes.

A quick shuffle through the entries this morning reveals that Dunlop
does intend to have a crack at sustaining his recent record of
achievement in the handicaps:

• Spanish Duke has an entry in the 1m2f handicap on Wednesday
  (4.50).

• Downhiller is entered in the 2m handicap on Thursday (4.50).

• Warlu Way hold entries in the 1m4f handicap on Friday (2.00)
  and the Ebor on Saturday (3.40)

• Harlestone Times is also entered in Saturday's Ebor (3.40).

Spanish Duke and Downhiller have both run 17 times - meaning that
they don't conform to the stats of most of Dunlop's winners in the
better class handicaps at York. Downhiller is also 6-years-old and,
as such, not likely to be progressing.

I'd be much more interested in Warlu Way. The 4-year-old is 3 wins
from 11 and possesses a progressive profile. He won off a career-
best rating of 84 two runs ago - giving no sign that he's about to
plateau. He's risen to 91 on the handicapper's scale - but that
shouldn't be sufficient to peg him and I'd bet that there's more to
come from the son of Sakhee. It's going to take quite a defection of
runners between now and Saturday for him to run in the Ebor. But
having already won at 12f and having won left-handed he has all
the makings of a 'live' Dunlop runner.

Harlestone Times, owned by Dunlop himself, is also relatively
lightly raced and has the look of a 'live' runner. His 11 races have
also produced 3 wins (all in his last 6 races when stepped up more
fitting trips). He's obviously in good heart this term. He gets in
right at the bottom of the weights in the Ebor as the entries stand
this morning. He didn't appear to get home at Newcastle when tried
over the 2m trip but his figures give every indication he'll stay
1m6f. There's a slight suspicion he might prefer a right-handed
track but he has won going left. The Ebor has been his target all
season.

For me they are the two Dunlop handicappers of most interest this
week. The yard has geared up for this week with 14 runners over the
last few days which produced 3 winners and 3 additional placed
efforts - and a 5.75 point profit for punters when backed to win at
level stakes. 

Four additional handlers to note at York....

When it comes to the Class 2 and 3 handicaps at York, Dunlop is not
the only trainer with a track record of making them pay.

• Ed McMahon has produced 4 winners from the last 18 runners
  he's saddled in those events since May 2005 - a winning strike rate
  of 22.2% that's produced a level stakes profit of 24.5 points for
  level stakes backers.

All the yard's winners were running in sprint events. All had run in
the last 14 days. All were relatively lightly raced having run no
more than 14 times.

• Saeed Bin Suroor and his Godolphin runners have also fared
  well in the better York handicaps in the period under review (May
  2005 to date). Forty runners in Class 2 and 3 handicap events have
  harvested 9 wins at 22.5% and a 12 point profit for backers.

This week it could pay to focus on the Godolphin handicappers coming
back to the racecourse off a long break. The yard is 5 wins from 11
runs with quality handicappers at York who hadn't raced for the
previous 80 days or longer. To level stakes they show a 25
point profit. The yard clearly knows how to prepare horses to take a
decent handicap here first time back. Emirates Dream contests the
3.05 on Thursday off a 292 day break and is of obvious interest
based on the stats.

Other stats to bear in mind - all of the Godolphin handicap winners
had raced no more than 10 times; 7 of the 9 winners were 4-years of
age, none were older than 4-years-old; all the wins were at trips of
a mile or more (7 were at trips in excess of a mile).

• Sir Mark Prescott has got Tuscan Gold entered in the 4.50 on
  Thursday over 2m and in the Ebor on Saturday where he needs quite a
  few to come out to get a run. It's only a single handicap runner but
  Prescott's recent record in Class 2 and Class 3 handicaps at the
  course means it's sure to attract the market's close attention.
  Prescott's last 12 qualifiers have produced 4 wins and a 7 point
  profit to level stakes.

But All 4 of Sir Mark's winners had raced within 10 days of heading
to York - so Tuscan Gold heading North after a layoff of some 350
days creates a bit of a conundrum for punters. This might be one
runner where the market provides a signal on the day.

• Finally Sir Michael Stoute has a track-record of turning out
  horses to win the Class 2 and Class 3 handicaps at York. His last 67
  runners in such events have produced 11 winners at shade over 16%.
  But backing his runners blind hasn't produced much in the way of
  profit - just 3.5 points to level stakes.

Improve the return by focusing attention on his better-class runners
- those down to shoulder 9-0 or more in their respective races.
Concentrating on those runners since May 2005 has produced 8 winners
from 37 runners and an 18 point profit to level stakes.

Or focus on runners coming back off a break. The Stoute runners
which have been given a break in preparation for York are the ones
to stick with. The last 21 Stoute runners to race in Class 2 or 3
handicaps at York have produced 7 winners and a level stakes
profit of 18.5 points.

I hope all that helps narrow your focus a little...

Making the most of the 4-day Festival....

If you're looking to make the most of the Ebor Festival this year
then you might want to consider enlisting the help of my Racing
Angles service...

I'll be providing York-focused advice and analysis from Monday to
Friday this week - in the form of Winning Profiles for the big Group
1 races and the Ebor handicap.

Year on year the biggest races on the turf are won by horses that
conform to a common statistical make-up (or at least the larger part
of it). They share a similar set of attributes. They boast common
characteristics. They've achieved similar things on the race track.
They've met specific standards. In other words, they have all the
right credentials.

Put together these commonalities represent a blueprint - a profile
of what it takes to win the specific race under review. I call it
the Winning Profile - and it's a useful tool with a sharp cutting
edge that can inform bets in future renewals of the same race.

Today and tomorrow I'll be providing detailed Profiles outlining
exactly what it takes to win the 4 big races at York - the
International Stakes, the Yorkshire Oaks, the Nunthorpe and the
Ebor.

Later in the week I'll be putting that advice into practice and
isolating the horses in each race which measure up closest to the
Profile criteria.

It's a method we've enjoyed some success with over the last few
months and right now is a very good time to get onboard - my
publisher is offering a FREE no-commitment 28-DAY TRIAL of the
service and that's on-top of a 12-month money-back guarantee if
you do decide to stay on as a paying member.

Take a look at how the service works, what you'll be getting and how
you can try it out free of charge and without obligation right here.
I very much hope you'll decide to get onboard Racing Angles this
week and I very much look forward to welcoming you to the
readership. All my member emails are posted on the Racing Angles
website which you get instant access to as soon as you join...

www.RacingAngles.co.uk

Until next time, be lucky.

24th August 2011

Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus....

• A better than bare form run in the Ebor....
• The trip for the best of King's Best progeny ....
• Ways of making King's best runners pay at 10-13f....
• Ain't life grand for us sporting punters....

A better than bare form run in the Ebor....

Modun caught my eye with his 4th placed run in the Ebor on Saturday.
Sir Michael Stoute's 4-year-old was beaten almost 3 lengths by the
winner but he started the race from stall 2 which means his
performance was a little better than the bare form suggests.

Five of the last 6 winners of the Ebor (before Saturday's renewal)
were drawn in the top-half of the Ebor field. And on the evidence of
the 2005-2010 renewals the place you definitely didn't want your
pick running from was a berth in the bottom third of the draw.
The last 35 runners to have run from a bottom-third draw had
produced a couple of 2nd place finishes but the remainder had been
beaten an average of 12 lengths per horse.

How might Modun have fared given the benefit of a high stall? We'll
never know. It's all ifs and buts. But one thing is for sure. He's
worth noting for the future.

I took a closer look at his record for a bit of lowdown. There's not
too much to see. Modun has only raced 7 times to date. But we can
make one or two observations and come to a couple of tentative
conclusions:

• ·         Decent performances at Newbury and York illustrate that he
  goes left. A win at Folkestone and a decent showing at Goodwood tell
  us that he also goes right.
• ·         His form record also tells us he can go well fresh. He won on
  his racecourse debut and he won a handicap on his return to action
  this season.
• ·         He acts best on a sound surface. His one effort on official
  soft ground produced his worst effort in the formbook to date - at
  Royal Ascot - where he finished beaten more than 20 lengths.  

There is a suspicion - based on Saturday's race which he didn't
quite see out - that he doesn't get the 14f trip. He's been tried at
trips between 10f and 14f in his short career to date. His best
efforts in terms of winning performances, form figures and speed
ratings have come so far at trips around the 10f mark.

In time I expect him to replicate that success at 12f. But I'm not
so sure he'll want trips as far as the 14f he encountered in
Saturday's race. How have I reached these conclusions? By looking
into the record of his sire, King's Best - a horse Sir Michael
Stoute once described as the best miler he'd ever trained.

The trip for the best of King's Best progeny....

When trying to reach a view on what trip the progeny of any
particular sire are going to get or excel at I don't look at ALL the
sire's runners. I'm not interested in what his Class 6 clunkers do -
what trip they like, what going they prefer or which way round they
like to run.

The lower down the racing class system you go the more unpredictable
and unreliable the horses become... and the less you can depend on
the results of any statistical analysis.

I'm only really interested in a sire's runners in better quality
races... and what they achieve in those races. I find I can rely a
little more heavily on statistical evidence gleaned from races which
are truly competitive.

King's Best plied his racing trade at the 8f trip. It's reasonable
to expect that his sons and daughters might enjoy most top-level
success at the same mile trip. Reasonable... but wrong-headed. The
following table shows the record for King's Best pattern runners
(Group, 1, Group 2, Group 3 and Listed class) - by race distance -
since April 2005. It's pretty instructive.

What the table shows is that whilst plenty of the progeny of King's
Best are raced at the mile trip the strike-rate isn't great at 12.7%
and backing to level stakes produces a bigger points loss than any
other trip across the range.

The progeny of King's Best enjoy most top-level success at trips
between 10f and 13f. Taken together his progeny win 17% of the
pattern races they contest at those trips - 24 winners from 141
runners.

Sure, there's nothing in the way of profit if you back all his
runners at those trips blindly. But I'd never recommend doing that.
Instead I'd recommend a more thorough examination of the stats. I
recommend digging a little deeper to find the winning micro-trends
hidden away within the larger statistical record....

Ways of making King's Best runners pay at 10-13f....

Having done that digging, here are some specific methods you could
adopt if you're looking to make a profit from King's Best runners in
Pattern races at 10f to 13f....

• Focus on races the 10-13f progeny of King's Best contest in
  France - betting on the runners at French racecourses since April
  2005 would have seen you back 15 winners from 68 bets at  a strike
  rate of 22%. To level stakes you'd have made a profit of 15.2
  points.
• Start looking at qualifiers right now - if you don't want to
  back just the runners at French racecourses then consider backing
  all qualifiers blind during the months of August, September and
  October. Doing that since 2005 has produced 13 winners from 54 bets
  and 11.5 points of profit to level stakes.
• Another good approach is to look out for the fillies and the
  mares - the male runners win plenty of races at 10-13f but they do
  not make a profit backed to level stakes. The market appears to be
  onto the male runners as a group. It's a different story with the
  females. Backing them blindly at 10-13f over the last 6 years would
  have seen you back 9 winners from 49 runners at a strike rate of
  18.4% - pocketing 18.7 points worth of profit.

Okay, we won't be retiring on the fruits of these observations- but
they do represent little profit angles to be aware of... and don't
forget Modun. Like many of his father's runners I don't think he'll
excel at 14f but I do think he's another who can land us punters a
few points of profit at trips between 10f and 13f.

Ain't life grand for us sporting punters?

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Until next time, be lucky.

31st August 2011

Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus....

• Okay, so what about the King's Best handicappers?
• Focus your effort on the angles that produce the lolly....
• The trips it pays to play at....

Okay, so what about the King's Best handicappers....

Last week I focused on crunching the numbers and analyzing the stats
surrounding the Pattern race runners of sire, King's Best. In the
process we discovered a few useful angles to monitor and work with
going forward with his Group and Listed class runners - angles
I'd expect to pay their way over the long term.

But does the same process of statistical analysis - looking for the
key micro-trends hidden within the wider statistical record -
produce the same kind of useful intelligence when applied to
handicap class races?

Well, let's put it this way - it certainly doesn't hurt.

I don't think there's a great deal of point in assessing and
figuring out what's going on down at the bottom end of the racing
scale. As I said last week, the horses running in Class 5, 6
and 7 events are the most unpredictable and most unreliable animals
in racing.

Down at that level we're dealing with animals that either lack
talent or aren't interested in the game. Some are probably carrying
injuries. Others suffer from temperament issues. I'm probably
generalizing here but which horse happens to win a Class 6 handicap
on any given day probably depends as much on what mood it woke up in
as it does on any other factor.

Is it any wonder that a greedy and entirely self-serving bookmaking
industry want to see as many of these dross events on the racing
programme as possible - gradually reducing the quality of British
racing as a whole and wrecking the sport in the process? Such races
represent little more than indecipherable betting-shop fodder and
are best left to the Steepledowns crowd to figure out and waste
their betting money on.

When working with stats related to handicap racing it's sensible to
stick to the better-class events. Personally I limit myself to
working with numbers relating to Class 2 and Class 3 handicaps. That
way I know my numbers are based on decent quality horses
contesting decent and competitive races where there's better prize
money up for grabs - pots that connections genuinely want to compete
for with their runner

Focus your effort on the angles that produce the lolly....

With that proviso in mind I crunched the numbers on the King's Best
progeny (runners older than 2 years of age) to run in Class 2 and
Class 3 turf handicap races since April 2005... the intention being
to isolate areas in the wider record that offer most promise to the
punter.

The first thing to do is to make a statement of the bleeding
obvious: you won't make money blind-backing King's Best progeny in
these races. Over the last few years his 436 runners in such events
have produced just 41 winners at a rate of 9.4%. If you'd backed
them all you'd be looking at bankruptcy.

But take heart, dear friends. The stats have some positive comment
to make on areas of specific - and profitable - interest:

• It pays to play at the right courses - Ascot is not one of
  these. King's Best has had 60 runners in qualifying races at the
  Berkshire course over the test period - and none of them have
  managed to win. He's also drawn a blank with 12 runners at
  quirky Epsom. If you're looking to play the percentages than look
  out for King's Best runners in good-quality handicaps at York. His
  last 45 runners have produced 7 wins at 15.6% - producing 34.5
  points worth of profit.

• The stats show a spike on his fresh runners - plenty of
  punters like to focus their bets on runners that are racecourse fit.
  It's understandable. With runners coming off long breaks there's
  always a risk that the horse will need a run. But with King's best
  progeny it can pay to trust that they will go into quality handicaps
  off a long layoff sufficiently fit to win. King's Best runners
  contesting Class 2 and Class 3 handicaps off a break from the
  racecourse of 150 days or more have produced 10 winners from 55
  runners (a strike rate of 18.2%) over the test period - and an 89.5
  point profit.

• Be patient and wait for the ground - none of us want dozens of
  angles in our portfolios that require us to make hundreds of bets
  per season. Discrimination is a plus and with King's Best it can pay
  you to be patient and wait for betting opportunities on the right
  ground. When his handicappers run on soft or heavy ground they
  strike at 21.4%. The last 28 quality handicappers to perform on soft
  or worse ground have produced 6 wins and a 16.5 point profit.

• What you should be avoiding - King's Best progeny have a
  tendency NOT to turn into good veterans. Class 2 and Class 3
  handicappers with more than 20 runs to their name strike just 7.6%
  of the time - the last 78 qualifiers producing just 6 wins. Runners
  aged 6 or older are best avoided in the handicaps too - the last 25
  qualifiers striking just once. Also be wary of betting his fillies
  and mares in the handicaps. Over the review period they have a
  record of just 2 wins from 44 triers. You have been warned.

• Know your right from your left - as the table below
  illustrates King's Best progeny show a preference for running left
  when running at this level in handicap events. It's not a pronounced
  trend - they only go in at a shade under 14%. But they do show a
  profit of 13.5 points going that way. Going straight and going right
  they have a single-figure strike rate and show a level stakes loss
  if backed blindly.

The trips it pays to play at....

Last week we discovered that in Pattern races King's Best progeny
perform best on the stats at trips between 10f and 13f -
particularly under the specific circumstances and conditions I
highlighted as part of last week's column.

It's a different story lower down the racing scale. In Class 2 and
Class 3 handicap events his runners racing at trips of 9f to 12f are
best avoided. His last 155 runners in races over those
distances have produced just 6 winners at a rate of less than 4%.

• Runners contesting races at 13f to 14f (1m5f to 1m6f) are
  certainly worth noting. Not many of his progeny run at those trips -
  just 15 since April 2005 - but when they do they tend to produce
  results. Those 15 runners generated 6 winners at 40% - and clued up
  punters backing them to level stakes are sitting on a 28 point
  profit.

• The other place to focus your efforts is in races run over 6f
  to 8f. The last 241 runners have produced 29 winners and 24.5 points
  of profit. But that's a lot of bets and a lot of effort. Much better
  to do what I suggested earlier. Stay patient and wait for runners
  over those trips on soft or heavy ground. The last 48 runners
  to meet with those conditions scored 10 times and delivered a level
  stakes profit of 49.5 points.

That's something to be going on with.

Until next time, be lucky.