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19th December 2008
Good afternoon, friends,
- It pays to shop around the exchanges...
- Seasons greetings and some great race meetings...
- A little something for Chepstow...
Disloyalty definitely pays...
I've remarked occasionally in this column on how important it is to shop around the bookmakers in order to squeeze the best possible value out of your bets. Though it galls me to agree with Tesco on anything - every little helps.
Getting on at the best available price, getting the enhanced place terms, or the best odds guaranteed or the money back concessions is well worth the effort involved. At the end of the betting year those percentage points gained here and there can make a real difference to the final profit and loss figures.
Where bookmakers are concerned - disloyalty definitely pays. On every individual bet your rule should be this: guiltlessly succumb to the fluttering eyelashes of the bookmaker that offers the best price or the best all round deal for your purposes. Then cast that bookie aside like a used-up dishrag - until the next time he's prepared to offer the best you're going to get.
Disloyalty keeps the bookies on their toes. It's what drives their loyalty and retention programmes. Ultimately, it's what encourages the bookies to fight one another tooth and claw for market share. And that means we punters get better deals, more offers, more generous concessions, better prices and all the rest of it. It's all good. It's all part of the game.
If you bet with just one bookmaker - you're missing out. I can guarantee you that. Even if you have accounts with 2, 3 or 4 bookmakers - you're still likely to be missing out on the best deal available on the races you're betting on. Sure, your bookies will be the best price about your selections occasionally. But most of the time they won't.
It really is worthwhile opening betting accounts with as many bookmakers as you can - so you can use whichever one is most use to you at any specific time.
Betfair is not the only exchange game in town...
The same is true with betting exchanges. Betfair has become so synonymous with the term 'betting exchange' that it can sometimes seem like the only game in town. I'm as guilty of propounding that myth as anybody else.
True, most exchange players are found on Betfair. And for a variety of reasons. Most importantly, that's where most of the money is. The markets on Betfair have way much more liquidity than the alternatives. Betfair also seems to have most promotional clout. And figures in the media also play their part - referring by name to Betfair, as I've done myself, whenever the subject of exchange markets arises.
But Betfair is not the only game in town. And it pays to shop around - as I rediscovered to my potential profit on Wednesday night.
Getting the best deal on the Star...
Many of you will recall Star De Mohaison from the 2006 jumps season. Just 5-years old at the time, the Paul Nicholls charge did a double that very few young chasers achieve - winning the Grade 1 Royal and Sun Alliance Chase at the Cheltenham Festival and then, just three weeks later, landing the Grade 2 John Smiths Mildmay Chase at Aintree.
Since then, owing to injury, he's dropped off plenty of radars. But now he appears to be back and earlier this month, racing over fences for the first time in two years, he ran a cracker of a comeback in finishing a 1/2 length 2nd to Mon Mome in the Boylepoker.com Chase - a Listed handicap contested over the Gold Cup distance of 3m2f.
The horse travelled really well for most of the race and looks to have retained his sparkle over fences. I'd expect him to come on for the run. And, at just 7 years-of-age, the lightly raced gelding is open to plenty of progression. So much so I've had a nibble at him for the Gold Cup in March.
I've got to admit I was beaten to the best price. He was quoted at 33/1 by plenty of the firms just after his comeback run. But that was soon snapped up. On Wednesday night the best price you could get with the bookies was 25/1. And that was the best price available on Betfair too.
But here's where shopping around the exchanges proved its worth. On Betdaq there was £114 worth of 30.0 (29/1) available and I was able to help myself to a slice of that. It's an ante-post bet and things can go wrong. March is some way off yet, the horse might not make it to the Gold Cup, chasers are prone to breaking down. But if the Star shows up on the day, I reckon I'm going to be on at a value price.
Just by taking the time to shop around I secured myself 4 points above the best price available elsewhere - including Betfair. Betdaq and WBX may seem like pour cousins to the Betfair monster. But, now and again, they deliver something Betfair can't.
Seasons greetings and some great race meetings...
Xmas is almost upon us. And this will be the last HRF of the year. I'll be back in your mailboxes in the New Year - January 9th to be precise. So, I'll take this opportunity to wish you and yours a merry Xmas and a happy, safe and prosperous New Year. Before you know it we'll be heading for the Cheltenham Festival and the best 4 days of the year - bar none.
Until then we've got plenty of fantastic racing to keep us happy - not least over the next few days. Ascot on Saturday promises to be an exciting meeting with the Ladbroke Hurdle, the rerouted, if reduced, Boylesports.com Hurdle and the Long Walk Hurdle for stayers.
Then on Boxing Day we've got Kempton - The King George, the Xmas Hurdle and the Feltham for the novice chasers. The following day, next Saturday, the bandwagon shifts to Chepstow for the Welsh National among other decent races. If that lot isn't enough to keep you going whilst you reduce that Christmas turkey to little more than bleached bones, then I don't know what more can be done.
A little something for Chepstow...
In the hope of spreading a little Xmas cheer, the Welsh National field and the weights have not yet been finalized - but here are a couple of pointers for what you should be looking for in the winner and the losers.
Layers shouldn't be afraid of betting against horses carrying in excess of 11 stone. Chepstow is a slog at the best of times - and weight doesn't help in this marathon test. Hennessey runners do not have a good record either. This testing race probably comes too soon after the Newbury showpiece. Older horses - an age in double figures - are not good bets either.
Backers should look for a horse carrying a lightweight - course form at Chepstow is a real bonus. There haven't been any big, big priced winners in recent years. On the day of the race let the market guide you to some extent and look for something at 16/1 or under.
Until January 9th 2009, be lucky.
12th December 2008
Good afternoon, friends,
- When the exchanges come into their own...
- Where to sharpen your exchange betting skills...
- This revamped website is well worth a visit...
Backing at the biggest prices...
If my mailbag (for mailbag read email inbox) is anything to go by then quite a few of you got me beat in the Hennessey Gold Cup by backing Madison Du Berlais alongside or instead of Air Force One, my own selection.
More reports dribbled in this week of prices up to and including 70/1 being snapped up about the David Pipe runner on the exchanges. No reports yet of anybody backing Madison Du Berlais and Air Force One in an Exacta - which paid £310.40 and to a £1 stake - but that would probably be asking a little too much!
I doff my cap and congratulate you all. Those 70/1 winners certainly have the power to turn a frown upside down don't they? They also come in useful for financing the Xmas Guinness!
Regular readers will know that I'm a huge proponent of the betting exchanges. And Madison Du Berlais's win is an example of where the exchanges have got the traditional bookmakers beat - bigger prices available about 'live' outsiders. Put it this way; there wasn't a single bookmaker in the land offering 70/1 about Pipe's 7-year old. Anybody choosing to bet with a bookie rather than on the exchanges missed the value and deprived themselves of cash.
Always back your 'live' outsiders on the exchanges...
These days, where shorter priced horses are concerned, the bookmakers tend to follow the exchanges. The tail definitely wags the dog and there isn't a great deal of price difference between the exchanges and the bookies when it comes to the more fancied runners. Not when you take into consideration the commission you pay on winning exchange bets.
However, it's when you latch onto 'live' and undervalued outsiders that exchanges really come into their own for backers. Where outsiders are concerned, I'll guarantee you that there will be multiple exchange players happy to lay those horses at 20% (at least) better prices than your traditional skinflint bookie.
How is this possible? Well, take a look at the returned starting prices of the Hennessey runners. If you do the necessary math then you'll see that the overround for the race was 125%. That 25% represents the bookmaker's notional profit - whichever horse gets past the post first - assuming he's balanced his liabilities effectively.
Bookmaking is not an exact science and generally a bookie will win more money on some outcomes than others. But on every race the bookmakers sets his prices or 'makes a book' to include this overround - his built in profit. On the exchanges - and you can observe this for yourself - the overround is rarely more than 101% or 102%. There is no big bookmaker's profit built into exchange prices so consequently the prices are better for punters - 20% and more.
Cutting the bookie from the betting equation...
On the betting exchanges the traditional bookmaker - and his exorbitant take - have been cut from the betting equation. Exchange players bet against one another - it's person to person betting. If you think Horse A will win and I think Horse A will lose - the exchange enables us to strike a bet. You are the backer and I am the layer.
Bigger prices, the ability to play bookmaker and lay bets and transparent markets are just a few of the advantages of betting exchanges. And something else I like about them is that winning isn't punished. Win a few bets with a bookmaker and you'll find yourself limited or unable to get a bet on at all. On the exchanges winning is encouraged. No matter how many times you win or how much - you'll never have a problem getting your bet matched on the exchanges.
I provide a more comprehensive explanation of betting exchanges and their advantages in my book, Join the Lay Betting Revolution and Win Big Money from Losers - along with a detailed analysis of 20 lay tipping services and their performance over a 3-month testing period.
Practice makes exchange betting perfect...
But there's one thing I didn't include in my book. Getting to grips with exchange betting can take a little time and practice. And, if you're playing for real money, that learning process can prove a little expensive. If you're an exchange newbie then you're going to like this site: http://www.playbetfair.com.
You can sign up here and play the Betfair markets for fun - enabling you to get used to the exchange environment, play the markets and sharpen your exchange betting skills without risking a single penny. Whilst you're learning you can still win prizes and bonuses at the site and compete in leagues - so there's a real competitive edge to what you're doing. It's an ideal way to learn and prepare yourself for the real thing.
Use this site to observe the markets, test your theories, and to back, lay and trade your fancies without risk. Actually going through the process of placing bets, using the various market features and navigating your way around will develop essential muscle memory and will make you a better exchange punter when it comes to playing for real.
I wish this site had been around in 2002 when I first got involved on Betfair. I'd have climbed the learning curve without making half so many mistakes and losing quite so much money!!
The revamped Post website is worth a look...
The Racing Post has recently revamped its website and is well worth a look. You can register for free and there are plenty of useful features and functions for racing punters. I'm particularly impressed with the new Racing Post television feature - where you can watch interviews, stable tours, race reruns, news reports and expert forums free of charge. There's no shortage of information and insights which can inform your own betting decisions.
The statistics functions have also been improved. I have one small criticism however. If you're anything like me you like to look at entries for races due to take place in a few days time. But the new RP website only let's you look at cards for races due to take place over the next 48 hours. This is a reduction in service. The old site enabled you to look further ahead.
All is not lost however. You can still check out entries over the upcoming week at the Sporting Life's racing fixtures page. Check it out at: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Meetings/
Until next time, be lucky.
Good afternoon, friends.
- Another 25/1 Hennessy heartbreaker...
- Never miss a trick with Horse Racing Focus - online...
- The ONLY predictable thing about racing...
If you saw last week's email, you'll know I selected the 6/1 Air Force One for the Hennessy Gold Cup last Saturday (I also picked out Character Building, but that was a non-runner).
If you followed the race, you'll also know that it finished 2nd - beaten three lengths by 25/1 shot Maison Du Berlais.
Our mount gave us a good run for our money and was always in contention, leading narrowly in the closing stages. But - perhaps undone by the softening ground - gave way to a huge priced winner.
Disappointing, but not quite as galling as my 2002 Hennessy heartbreaker - Don't worry! I'm not going to take you through it again...
Suffice to say, it also involved a 25/1 bet - mine this time - and no pay out!
(If you missed my tail of woe, or want to share my misery again - click here)
The ONLY predictable thing about racing...
The only thing you can rely on in racing is its sheer and unwavering unpredictability.
This year's Hennessy Gold Cup winner Maison Du Berlais was barely mentioned pre-race - starting the day as big as 33/1 with most bookies. With just one victory since January 2007, you'd have needed a crystal ball to pick David Pipe's gelding for glory this time. (If anyone was on, I'd love to here from you - drop me a line here Contact Me.)
That's racing folks.
Just when you think you know what's what, it does what you least anticipate. At the moment you believe you know what to expect, racing confounds you by delivering what you believed to be impossible, improbable or downright implausible. Racing takes the Mickey, it tests your resolve to breaking point and, as I know from personal experience, it can make you look like a fool.
Yes, the unpredictable outcomes of racing can have you curled up in the foetal position and howling yourself daft. But it is the very same unpredictability which draws us back time and again like moths to the flame. Unpredictability is the constant standing challenge we racing punters must overcome to make the profits we seek. It's tough, it can be hard-going - but it's fun.
Would we want it any other way? Not me, guv'nor. Where would we be without the unpredictable? How dull would racing (and life) be without it?
Sure, we lose battles and skirmishes. That does not mean we lose the war. And as our game showing from Air Force One shows - as long as we are putting in the work, applying a bit of science, ruling out the no-hopers and drawing up a shortlist of 'live' contenders, we'll end up with our share of winners.
And celebrate like drunken monkeys when we do!
Until next week,
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