Directory of Past issues - December 2010 2nd December - Five big value offers this weekend... 7th December - Proven routes to profit on the Kempton polytrack... 14th December - Profitable angles of attack at Lingfield 21st December - A yard that delivers the Christmas cheer... RETURN TO MAIN MENU Quick reminder of a decent bit of value on offer this weekend. No, not a tip - but you might end up with a shed-load of winners... Our mate Tony McCormick from Irish Race Trends is celebrating a successful first year in the business by offering YOU a gift. You can help yourself to his exclusive trends-based picks on 5 big Grade One races this weekend, from Sandown, Aintree and Fairyhouse for just a tenner. (Check out this offer and more here...) No trackside whispers... no bxxxxxxt... just the facts! Tony is a true racing man after our own heart - profiling and short- listing, based on solid trends and past performance. It's an unpretentious service that delivers just what it says on the tin. Every morning members get an email of selections - all backed up by solid trends. No tips, no opinion, no ego - just the facts. And as you might have guessed, it focuses on purely Irish racing - a smart move if you ask me. Irish racing remains something of a specialised area, so a close working knowledge of the Irish scene can give you an edge over the British bookmaker. And, of course, knowing about the Irish raiders before they come to Britain to contest the big meetings is priceless. A 7, a 10 and two 16/1 winners at Cheltenham... A fact never demonstrated better than on 'Winning Wednesday' at Cheltenham this year - one of his service highlights from a great year... Tony landed 4 big-price winners that day - First Lieutenant @ 7/1,  Sizing Europe @ 10/1 and Boston's Angel and Carlito Brigante both at 16s. Spot the connection...? That's right - All 4 winners were trained in the emerald isle. Plus, he wouldn't forgive me if I didn't mention his 40/1 Ballbacka Lady pick - yes, that's 40/1 folks! - at the 1,000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown, to kick off the flat season with a bang. And earlier this month he was one of the few that stuck by the old warrior Kauto Star to land his fourth Betfair Chase - taking the massive 7/1 on offer. Again, all based purely on stats. This weekend you can put Tony and his trends to the test over FIVE top class races for just €10. And if you like what you see, you can take advantage of a special Horse Racing Focus offer - 25% off a National Hunt Season ticket. One of the industry's straight-dealers - worth a squint. Check out the details here... Best wishes, Matt Nesbitt Publisher Horse Racing Focus Good afternoon, friends, In today's Horse Racing Focus.... Winning angles on the Kempton Park.... Three strong stats for Saturday's big race.... More angles for finding Kempton winners.... Striking Gold.... solid automated racing profit.... Winning angles on the Kempton Park .... Over the last fortnight we've looked at a series of potent angles for finding winners over the shorter trips at Wolverhampton and Southwell. This week the spotlight turns to unearthing good bets at Kempton Park's all-weather track... and I've got some real corkers for you.... All the statistical angles below are based on races run at Kempton since January 1st over trips of 5f to 8f.... The boys in blue offer backers great value.... There's no shortage of punters who base their betting approach on looking for quality - favouring the top yards, the top jockeys and the most potent sires over the rest. It came as no surprise to me that Saeed Bin Suroor is among the best performers over the shorter distances at Kempton. What did surprise me was that the market appears to be overlooking his success in these races (at least for the time being) - and his runners represent a rich source of potential profit going forward. The yard's last 85 runners over 5f to 8f at Kempton have gone in at a rate of 38.8% - producing profits of £240.00 to £10 stakes for backers. I don't have to tell you to keep a watchful eye on the entries going forward. But it will pay you to narrow your focus to the following areas.... Focus on the 2-year-olds - doing so reduced the bets to 57 but still produced 24 winners at 42% and didn't noticeably diminish profits. Level stakes backing to the tune of £10 delivered a profit of £230.00. It beats working. Eye the handicaps - particularly if you're looking for just a few bets. Most of Suroor's runners are in non-handicap events. But for conservative punters his handicappers at Kempton are where it's at. The last 22 handicap runners have produced 9 winners and levels takes profits worth £140.00 to £10 stakes. A nice angle for an occasional bet. August is the month - so make a note for next year. It's the month when Suroor is in the habit of sending his juveniles to win on the polytrack. His last 19 August runners at Kempton have notched 11 wins - delivering £152.00 to £10 level stakes backers. The top man over the shorter trips.... Frankie Dettori is the big beneficiary of Suroor's record - as you'd expect - and when he's onboard for Suroor at Kempton his record reads 15 winners from 34 rides - with a surprising profit for level stakes backers amounting to £204.42. Given the man's reputation and his legion of followers that's a pretty amazing return - and his rides over the shorter trips are an obvious source of potential profit going forward. But it isn't only Dettori who does well on Suroor's horses. Ted Durcan is another notable booking. He too rides at a strike rate of 40%+ - his last 36 rides for the yard producing 16 winners. And he's another friend of the backers - producing profits of £130.40 over the period. There's more to come from Kempton but let's just break off for a moment to preview the big race we've got to look forward to this weekend.... Three strong stats for Saturday's big race.... On Saturday Cheltenham plays host to what was the Boylesports.com Gold Cup but which is now called the Spinal Research The Atlantic 4 Gold Cup. Run on the 'New' course over 2 miles and 5 furlongs (21f) the race is open to horses aged 4 or older.  With plenty of quality two-and-a-half-milers showing up year-on-year the race is a great heat in its own right - but in addition to that the race also represents an opportunity for punters to extract some meaningful clues that might inform betting on the Ryanair Chase at the Festival in March... so it's a case of notepads out. If you're looking for a bet in Saturday's race there are some strong stats that help narrow the field down to 'live' contenders.... Stick to the 6- to 8-year-old age band - the last 5 winners and the last 5 runners-up all fell into that category. Six 5-year- olds to try their luck in the last 5 renewals failed to figure. Twenty-five horses aged 9 or older to run in the race over the same period also failed to make the first 2. Make a dozen chases your cut off point in terms of experience - nine out of the 10 horses to win or finish runner-up in the last 5 renewals had contested 12 chases or fewer. Avoid the out-and-out veterans. Look for a strong winning strike rate - 8 of the horses to win or finish runner-up in the last 5 renewals went into the race with a winning strike rate in chases of at least 33%. Those are just a few of the stats I'm using to narrow Saturday's field. If you like that kind of approach - based on exploiting the historic statistical record - then you might consider signing up for my standalone Winning Profile service which is covering all the big handicaps over hurdles and fences this winter. My Winning Profiles have already found Paddy Power Gold Cup winner, Great Endeavour (advised at 12s), and Planet Of Sound (advised at 14s), the runner-up in the Hennessy Gold Cup - and on Friday I'll be applying my Winning Profile with the objective of finding a strong bet in Saturday's big betting heat. You've still got a day or two to get onboard in good time to receive all my Winning Profiles for the big races this winter.... additional field splitters for Saturday's race... and my specific advice on Saturday's runners... ... There's not sufficient space here to cover all the ins and outs... all the advantages the service delivers... or examples of how the Winning Profiles look and work in practice. You can get access to all that on the link below. I very much hope you'll join us and I look forward to welcoming you onboard... www.shopatoxonpress.com/NH57/ Now let's get back to Kempton.... Another yard to bear in mind.... James Fanshawe doesn't over-race his string at the Surrey track. Since the beginning of 2009 he's sent just 67 runners out over short trips. That said 16 of them have won at a strike rate of just under 24% and they have been profitable to back as a group - earning profits of £254.60 to £10 level stakes. But we can do better.... First of all by focusing on the 6f and 7f runners - Fanshawe runners are 2 wins from 30 runners at the 8f trip since January 2009. Focusing on runners at the 6f sprint trip and the specialist 7f trip produced a much better return with 12 winners from 37 runners and profits of £362.10 to £10 level stakes. Target the better class events - Fanshawe has saddled 12 winners from just 35 runners in events of Class 4 status or better. Profits to £10 level stakes run to £399.60. Lower class events have produced just 4 winners from 32 runners - and a loss to level stakes. Avoid the juveniles - the yard's 2-year-old runners have drawn a blank over the last 3 years. The best strategy is to focus on the 3- and 4-year old runners. The last 53 have produced 14 wins. To level stakes the positive surplus amounts to a shade over £300. This young sire has delivered profits of £353.30.... Finally if you're looking for a bloodline angle at Kempton - and there's no reason not to be if it gives you an edge on the market - then consider the progeny of Holy Roman Emperor. His first crop didn't appear on racecourses until 2010 - but his runners are already of great interest to punters. And that's particularly the case over the short trips at Kempton. His first 52 runners have gone in at over 20% - and the 11 winners have gone in at prices that cover the stakes on the losers and produce a profit of £353.30 to £10 level stakes. It will pay to keep his runners onside over the weeks and months ahead.... Striking Gold.... solid automated racing profit.... There are many different ways of finding winners and making a profit. For example, I like to use the stats in conjunction with elements of traditional form study to find my bets. Pricewise - the top tipster in the Racing Post - gets his selections from the observations he makes watching races over and over again. Channel 4's Derek Thompson gets the selections for his tipping services by throwing darts at a list of the day's short-price horses (at least that's what they tell me).... There's no right or wrong way... the trick is to make a profit.... But one thing is for sure - if you're going to find your own winners the process takes a great deal of time and energy... as many of you will know. If time is a commodity you have in short supply then the answer could be an automated, mechanical way of finding winners and accruing profit... and if that sounds like what you're looking for then I know of nothing better on the market than Matt Watson's 'Struck Gold' service.... To £20 stakes the service is £1270 in profit since May.... Not bad going.... There's a specific 3-step method Matt's service employs and you can either have Matt send you the selections - which revolve entirely on favourites whose prices still offer value - or you can back them yourself via Matt's automated betting bot which finds the selections and places the bets automatically - meaning you don't have to be standing guard over the process. I've got to stress that this is an option for punters who are prepared to play the long game. Matt Watson - whose services I've highlighted before in this column - is one of the industry's good guys. He's honest and straightforward - a rarity in this game - and he'll tell you himself that the service has had periods of shortfall in between some really profitable streaks. Overall - over the long term - the service is well in profit. The bottom line is that you need some stickability to reap the dividends. I'm a big fan of Matt and his services. I feel comfortable highlighting what he's got going on - and Struck Gold is a great opportunity for punters looking for solid and automated profits to manageable stakes over the long term. It is well worth checking out for yourself and you can do that right here... www.struckgoldsystem.com I'll be back next week when I'll be bringing you some angles of betting attack on the all-weather at Lingfield....

Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus....

• A yard that produces occasional strong bets....
• A handler to rely on at Lingfield....
• Dwyer gives the older horses wings....
• Get instant access to more of the same....
• A bloodline to follow on the sand....

Continuing - and concluding - our short series on profitable
betting angles at the all-weather tracks our focus this week turns
to Lingfield. 

As has been the case throughout this series all the statistical
angles outlined in this column refer to races run on the all-
weather surface since the beginning of 2009 at trips of 5f to 8f
inclusive.

The profit and loss figures I reference relate to level stakes
backing at £10 per point.

So let's get down to business....

A yard that produces occasional strong bets....

Marco Botti doesn't have too many runners over the short trips at
the track - just 53 over the review period. But he gets them into
the winners' enclosure almost 20% of the time. And if you'd backed
all his runners to £10 level stakes you'd be £295.00 in profit - so his
runners are worth looking out for at the track.

• Pay special attention to horses racing at Lingfield over the
  short trips after a lay off of 100 days or more. Botti is effective
  when it comes to preparing such horses to win. The last 8 to run
  have produced 4 winners and profits run to £170.00. It's a nice
  angle that produces the occasional bet.

• Martin Dwyer has been an interesting booking for the yard
  when partnered with a horse over the short trips - riding 4 winners
  from his last 6 such rides. Profits run to £150.50. It's another
  occasional angle that might well reap dividends if the pair team up
  again this winter.

• The spring is a good time to follow the yard at the track. A
  total of 13 runners going to post in the months of March, April and
  may have produced 5 winners and early flat-season profits of
  £250.00 to level stakes.

A handler to rely on at Lingfield....

Last week in a Racing Angles column I highlighted Ralph Beckett as
a man to rely on at Kempton. He's worth latching onto at Lingfield
too. His short-trip horses are first past the post more than 20% of
the time and 12 winners from his last 57 short-trip runners at the
track have produced level stakes profits for backers of £354.20. 

• Play the sprint trips - Beckett's ostensibly runs 2- and 3-
  year-olds at the track. The milers are just 2 wins from 22 runners.
  His 7f runners are 2 from 11. Sticking with the Lingfield sprinters
  over 5f to 6f is the smart move with the Beckett's younger horses.
  The last 22 runners at those trips have produced 8 winners at
  36.4% and level stakes profits for backers of £509.40.

Dwyer gives the older horses wings.....

Regular riders at Lingfield tend to win on 10% to 12% of the horse
they ride. Martin Dwyer - who I've already mentioned in connection
with Marco Botti - is one of the few to get more frequent wins from
the horses he pilots. He's particularly useful over the 5f to
8f trips at Lingfield. His last 156 runners have produced 27 at a
rate of 17.3%. That said you wouldn't want to be backing them
all....

He doesn't have a very good record, for example, with juvenile
runners over the 5f to 8f trips. Maybe he's unsympathetic in his
approach. Maybe he doesn't excel at coaxing a performance from an
inexperienced youngster. Whatever the reason his 2yo runners at
Lingfield are not a group you'd want to back. His last 26 juvenile
rides over the shorter trips have produced just a single winner.

• Where you do want to see Dwyer is on the back of an older
  horse - when riding horses aged 4 and over his record reads13 wins
  from 56 efforts and produced a profit for backers of £221.20.

• And you want him in stall 3 to stall 8 - over the 5f to 8f
  trip those are the stalls out of which Dwyer performs best on the
  4yo+ horses. His last 43 qualifying rides produced 12 wins and a
  profit of £332.10. He clearly knows how to get them home in front
  when racing from the mid-range berths at Lingfield.

Get instant access to more of the same....

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But even though you don't pay a penny we like to think you get your
money's worth. Where else would you get regular, reliable and free
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we provide every Wednesday?

The downside is that HRF is only published once a week and there's
a limit to how much information, insight and advice we can cram
into one issue. My Racing Angles service on the other hand is
published up to 3 times a week and is home to more comprehensive
stats, deeper analysis and more penetrating insight per week than
HRF can cover in a month.

Tomorrow in Racing Angles I'll be providing additional angles for
use at Lingfield there isn't room for in this column today. Just as
last Thursday I provided Racing Angles readers with profitable
approaches for Kempton Park there wasn't space for in last week's
HRF.

If you like the kind of analysis I provide in this column then
consider trialing the Racing Angles service where you'll find more
of the same and plenty more besides. The trial lasts a month and it
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you decide not to continue receiving the service after your trial.
It's a no-lose proposition you can check out right here:

www.RacingAngles.co.uk

A bloodline to follow on the sand....

The sire, Cape Cross is responsible for plenty of winners over the
shorter distances at Lingfield. But he has plenty of runners too
and you wouldn't want to be backing them all.

• Avoid the milers - the last 40 Cape Cross milers to run at
  Lingfield have produced just 4 wins between them. The best focus
  are the progeny racing over trips of 5f to 7f trips - the last 63
  qualifiers produced 16 winners and level stakes profits amounting
  to £427.30.

• Juveniles at the 5f to 7f trips are specifically worth
  looking out for - the last 11 Cape Cross 2-year-olds to race at
  these trips at Lingfield have produced 5 wins from 11 runs and
  £136.70 worth of profits to level stakes. 

• Older horses go well too - the last 29 Cape Cross progeny
  aged 5 and over to run at Lingfield over trips of 5f to 7f have
  generated 11 wins - a strike rate of 37.9%. Level stakes profits
  total £501.50. It's a clear-cut case of the oldest fiddles playing
  the sweetest tunes.

There's plenty there to be going forward with. I'll be back next
week with more stats, analysis and angles to help you extract a
betting profit from the racing this winter and beyond.

If you're looking for more Lingfield angles I'll be writing more on
the subject in my Racing Angles column on Thursday afternoon. If
you'd like to see what additional approaches I've uncovered then
simply sign up to trial the service free of charge for 28-days
right here:

www.RacingAngles.co.uk

Until next time, be lucky.

Good morning, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus....

• A top yard that consistently delivers the Xmas cheer....
• The best ways to capitalize on the prolificacy....
• Signing off.... until next year....

A top yard that consistently delivers the Xmas cheer....

Christmas week is a time of year when plenty of businesses -
excluding those in the retail sector or the bookmaking industry -
either wind down to a level where they are operated by a skeleton
staff or they cease to trade completely for a few days.

There's an element of that in the racing world too. Stable lads and
lasses have families and deserve some time off - leaving less than a
full compliment of staff to bear the daily grind back at the yard.
Plenty of yards just 'tick over' during the Christmas week. They'll
see to the horses and send out a few runners but past performance
results tell us they won't be going at full throttle until the
festive season is over.

But there's one top yard that doesn't appear to take its foot off
the gas at this time of year. I crunched some numbers earlier this
week - focusing on all the races run on dates between 26th December
to 3rd January from 2006 onwards and it's clear that this yard
launches a year-round assault on the game. The stats reveal that
Nicky Henderson's operation has developed the happy knack of
consistently delivering the turkey to punters at a time when the
rest are still sleeping off the effects of too much plum pudding and
Christmas cheer.

The best ways to capitalize on the prolificacy....

The first thing to note with regard to his yard is how well his
runners go throughout the whole of December and January - year in
and year out. His last 683 runners in those months have gone in at a
rate of 29%. And the 198 winners have gone in at sufficient prices
to cover the losers and to produce a surplus of £1200.00 profit to
£20 level stakes.

I don't think anybody would have the time or the inclination to want
to be backing all those 683 runners - but the figures certainly
confirm that there is plenty for the punter to go at with his horses
over the December/January period.

Getting back to the Christmas period - runners from 26th December to
January 3rd - the trend is confirmed. His last 145 Christmas week
runners have produced a total of 41 winners at 28.2%... a seasonal
strike-rate far in excess of that posted by lesser trainers over the
period.

If you want to capitalize on this rich seam of winners then consider
adopting one or more of the following strategies with his runners
this Christmas....

• ·         Stick to the meetings at Class 1 courses - the meetings run
  during the Christmas week at Kempton, Cheltenham and Newbury host
  the high-profile races you'd expect Henderson to be targeting - and
  he rarely walks off the course empty-handed. He's produced 6 winners
  from his last 23 runners at Cheltenham, 13 winners from 41 runners
  at Kempton and 7 winners from his 26 entries at Newbury. Accumulate
  those figures and they read 26 winners from 90 runners. His runners
  at those meetings represent good targets.
• ·         Limit your attention to just two pilots - Henderson has
  enjoyed his most prolific Christmas success with either A P McCoy or
  Barry Geraghty onboard his runners. McCoy has ridden 6 winners from
  19 rides taken - a strike-rate in excess of 30%. Geraghty's 35
  Christmas rides for the yard have produced 13 winners at 37%. That's
  a combined strike-rate of 35%. It doesn't get much better. They get
  the best of the horses available and it stands to reason those are
  the horses with the strongest chances in their races. Following them
  produces frequent winners.
• ·         One age-band does particularly well - I'm not a great one for
  following horses based purely on how old they are but it can't be
  denied that over the Christmas period Henderson has a record of
  doing very well with his 5- and 6-year-old runners. Circumstance?
  Coincidence? Or part of the overall plan? We can't know.
  But the stats tell us they have been well worth the punter's
  attention since 2006. The last 65 5- and 6-year-old runners have
  produced 19 winners at 29.2%. So they are clearly worth
  consideration when entered.
• ·         Don't be afraid to go down the grades - Henderson is
  synonymous with his quality horses winning the biggest, richest and
  best Class 1 events. But his runners in lower Grade races are also
  worth noting and shouldn't be off your radar. His last 40 runners in
  races at Class 4, Class 5 and Class 6 have yielded 15 winners at
  37.5%. So they are well worth a look this time round.

Henderson is in ripe good form right at the moment. Over the last
14-days his winning strike-rate has hit 35% with 17 winners from 48
runners. And 50% of his runners have placed over the period -
meaning there's been plenty of each-way consolation to boot. With
that kind of momentum going into the Christmas period all the signs
point toward winners during Christmas week - and the approaches
outlined above are the way to take advantage.  

On the first day of Christmas, my true love sent to me... 12
winners!

Well, that's the plan. Good friend of HRF and Irish Racing
authority, Tony McCormick is back with a very special Christmas
offering...

12 races - including 7 Grade One's - over four days, kicking off
with the mouth-watering King George on Boxing Day. All covered in
forensic detail, with Tony going over all the stats and trends from
the previous six renewals before coming up with his...

• Race short-list...
• Big-price dangers...
• And, ultimate, the race winner.

12 races for a tenner...

You'll get an email each morning from December 26th - 29th, covering
all the big races from meetings at Leopardstown, Limerick, Chepstow
and Limerick. And it'll only set you back a tenner. Click here for
full details...

www.irishbigracetrends.com/amember/signup.php

Last time Kauto Star and Long Run went toe-to-toe, Tony picked out a
1-2-3. Something similar would do nicely...

Signing off.... until next year....

Unlike the Henderson yard Horse Racing Focus will not be toiling on
through the Christmas period. Your correspondent will be taking the
opportunity to rest up a little in preparation for a busy 2012.

This is the last HRF of 2011 and I'd like to take this opportunity
to thank you for reading over the last 12 months and for the
feedback, information and material you are kind enough to send in. I
appreciate it. I'd also like to wish you and yours a very merry
Christmas and all the best for the New Year. I hope it's a good one.

I'll be back on Wednesday January 4th 2012 - so keep a lookout in
your email box.

Until next time, be lucky.