Directory of Past issues - December 2009

2nd December - What we learned from the Hennessy, plus news of an exclusive invitation

9th December - The key to long-term profits - and an Exclusive Invitation

16th December - Race times and what they can tell you

23rd December - Some amazing stats for all weather racing

RETURN TO MAIN MENU

2nd December 2009

Good afternoon, friends,

In today’s Horse Racing Focus….

• Denman proves his greatness….
  
• A few names to take from the Hennessy….
  
• Your exclusive invitation to Racing Angles….

Denman proves his greatness…

The racing on Saturday was all about one horse – Denman. Coming back off
a 240 day break and all the health issues that disrupted last season he
produced a monstrous performance to win the Hennessy Gold Cup for a
second time at the age of 9 – underlining his status as one of the
greats.

Carrying top weight of 11-12, if he didn’t quite run all his opponents
ragged then he came very close. His bold jumping, relentless galloping
and game finish left trainer Paul Nicholls close to tears and anybody who
saw the race in something approaching raptures. Sometimes you know you’re
witnessing something special as it unfolds and Saturday was one of those
times.

Denman’s now the joint 9/4 favourite with old sparring partner Kauto Star
for the Gold Cup at the Festival in March. It would take a brave man to
bet against either one of them winning the race again. What a prospect we
have in store if both get to the Festival at the top of their respective
games. We are, without doubt, in a golden age of jump racing.

Denman is expected to contest the Aon Chase at Newbury in February before
going to Cheltenham. He’ll be a short price to take that race – he’s 5
wins from 5 goes at Newbury – but he’ll still be of serious interest to
plenty of backers who will consider him a nailed-on opportunity to buy
money. He’ll also have the bookies quaking as a banker in all manner of
multiple and forecast bets.

A few names to take from the Hennessy…

It’s always worth taking note of those horses which do well in the
Hennessey. In recent years horses like  Hedgehunter, Comply or Die,
L’Ami, Harbour Pilot, Ollie Magern and Royal Auclair (to name just a few)
have come to prominence in the Hennessey and then gone on to win or go
close in bigger races. The bottom line is that quality horses come out of
the Hennessy.

From this year’s renewal it will prove worthwhile to take note of and
follow the progress of those horses that finished directly behind Denman.

Niche Market came an unexpected 3rd at 33/1. He won the Irish National at
Fairyhouse last season proving that he has the requisite stamina to
handle marathon distances. He’s an obvious one to consider if he goes for
the Grand National at Aintree in the spring. One thing to be aware of is
that his 2 wins have both come on right-hand tracks. That said he’s
performed well going left-handed at the 2008 Festival in the Peter
O'Sullevan National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup – 4th of 20 beaten just
under 12 lengths – and again on Saturday. His best performances come when
he’s returning to the track less than 6 weeks (42 days) after a previous
run. I wouldn’t want to be backing him in smaller field. He’s raced 7
times in fields of less than 10 runners and run a series of clunkers.
Bigger fields suit better – 2 wins in fields of 14 and 28, a 4th from 20
runners and a 3rd from 19 runners bear that out. He’s entered in a race
at Sandown on Saturday.

What A Friend ran well to take 2nd on Saturday – beaten just over 3
lengths by Denman. I can’t argue with that form on paper but What A
Friend’s tendency to wander is a real cause for concern. It’s not the
first time that’s happened and I’d like to see that problem sorted out
before he carries any of my money. There’s plenty of time with this one
though. Saturday’s run was only his 5th in chases so I don’t want to be
too hard on the horse. The fact is that approaching the last he was the
only horse bar Denman still in with a chance of winning and had he not
made a bad leap at the last he might even have been too much for the
winner. So there’s no shortage of potential and he will get better and
has big races in his scope. He's entered in the same race as Niche Market
at Sandown on Saturday.

Barbers Shop looked a real threat at one stage of the race – travelling
as you’d expect a class animal to do. But there is now a definite
suspicion that this horse gets no further than 3 miles – at least for the
moment. He ran out of steam over 3m2f in the Gold Cup in the Spring and
the same thing happened again on Saturday. He’s only 7 so he might get
stronger and get the trip eventually. For now he’s a 3 miler in my book.
There’s talk of him contesting the King George on boxing. And there’s no
doubting a right handed track suits – 4 of his 6 career wins have been on
right-handers, in addition to two second place finishes from just 7
attempts. He’ll have to improve to beat an at-his-best Kauto Star – but
at just 7 there is still plenty of potential for progression in the
horse.

Gone To Lunch is another to note for races like the Grand National over
marathon distances. He won the Scottish National at Ayr last season and
has 7 career wins to date at 3 miles plus. He’s one you definitely want
to be backing fresh. 6 of his 7 career wins have come when returning to
the track less than 6 weeks (42 days) after a previous run. I have him
down as one I wouldn’t be backing after a longer break than that. He’s
won once off a break of 122 days in a Class 4 event. But at the level
he’s contesting at the moment he appears to need a run in him to be
competitive.

Kornati Kid also ran well. That was particularly pleasing for me. He was
unheralded in the run up to the Hennessy. But having looked at his
profile I felt he might be a surprise package in the race. Whilst he
didn’t make the frame as I’d hoped he did run well enough to suggest that
he was indeed better than the 33/1 he traded at until the off. I have him
marked down as an improver and one to keep an eye on. He’s entered in the
same race as What A Friend and Niche Market at Sandown on Saturday where
he’ll carry top weight if he runs. His record going right-handed – 3
wins, a 2nd from 11 and a 3rd of 14 runners – merits respect.

Your exclusive invitation will arrive soon...

Keep an eye on your email box over the next couple of days. My new Racing
Angles service is now under starter’s orders. And, as I promised, as a
valued HRF reader you will get first dibs at reserving a guest membership
– so that you can check it out and see what you think.

On top of that I’ve arranged with my publisher to give you an Exclusive
Discount if you like what you see and want to join me in the search for
winners in the weeks and months ahead.

One component of the service is my Big Race Focus. Each week I select one
of the big weekend chasing handicaps I specialize in and submit it to the
kind of comprehensive and detailed analysis there simply isn’t space for
with HRF. This week I’ll be focusing on the Class 2 freebets.co.uk Free
Bets Handicap Chase at Chepstow on Saturday.

On Thursdays I identify and analyse the prevailing trends which govern
the race – and enable us to split the field into probables and the not-
so-probables. On Friday’s I submit the shortlist of probables to
intensive forensic profiling – with the objective of figuring out
exactly which horses are best suited by the conditions and circumstances
they will face on race day.

The rest of the week I’ll be bringing you unique statistical analysis and
profiling of horses, insight into when you should be backing certain
trainers (and when you shouldn’t). Plus dozens of proven winning betting
angles for backer and layers – angles that produce consistent profits
over the long term – and much much more.

The best way to think of this service is as a form of personal access
into what’s going on with my own thinking and my own betting. Whatever
I’m doing, thinking about, researching and analyzing on a day-to-day
basis, Racing Angles is the service which gives you instant access to it.

Look out for the email I’ll be sending. It will give you access to all
the information you need about the service. I very much hope you’ll take
advantage of the guest membership so you can see what the service is all
about.

Until next time, be lucky.

9th December 2009

Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus....

• Just playing at it....
  
• Getting an edge over the bookie....
  
• The key to long-term profits....
  
• Racing Angles - join now to get my race info for the
  weekend...

Just playing at it....

I get a lot of emails asking me what my thoughts are on specific
races. What's my view on the Class 6 Handicap on Lingfield's All-
Weather track? What do I make of the Hunter Chase at Warwick? Have I
got a view on the Seller at Brighton? What is my considered analysis
of the bumper at Naas?
  
More often than not I respond by saying I'm sorry but I don't have a
clue. Why? It's because I don't tend to get involved in those types
of races. When I do get involved it's usually as a layer of short-
priced horses which my more mechanical systems flag up as falsely
priced or types which consistently lose - consistently enough to
make a long-term profit.

Where backing horses on the flat is concerned I focus the vast
majority of my attention on the big handicaps at 5f, 6f, 7f and a
mile. And next season I'm seriously considering dropping my interest
in the milers in an effort to reduce workload and focus more closely
than ever on the runners over the shorter distances. During the
jumps season my primary focus are the big chase handicaps run over
2m4f+ - as illustrated by the Big Race Focus component of my new
Racing Angles service.

• Find out more about my new Racing Angles service - and a special
  offer for Horse Racing Focus readers - here...

http://www.shopatoxonpress.com/RA77HRF/

I explained how I narrow my focus to one of my correspondents just
the other day - and he didn't like it. In his view - and its one
he's perfectly entitled to hold - a pro-punter should know the
racing game inside out and back to front. He couldn't accept that
there are dozens of races each week which I have absolutely no
interest in whatsoever and hold no opinion about.
 
My correspondent sees my narrow focus as evidence that I am not a
serious punter - that I am simply 'playing at it' in some way. But I
see my narrow focus as one of the most potent and effective weapons
in my betting armoury - a weapon that gives me a cutting edge in the
ongoing war with the bookmakers.

Getting an edge over the bookie....

When you work for a bookmaker you quickly realise that the ordinary
racing punter enjoys a natural advantage over the professional
layer. Punters like you and I get to pick and choose the races in
which we get involved. We can actively select the races in which we
risk our money. That's not the case for the bookmaker. He must
provide a market on every race - whether he really wants to or not.
A failure to do so would concede commercial advantages to his
competitors.

Believe me, there are plenty of events a bookmaker's racing traders
would rather not get involved in - races in which they don't have a
strong line on the horses and where they are at risk of getting
picked off by well-informed punters that do.
 
It might be that difficult maiden sprint at Ripon, the bumper full
of unknown animals in Ireland, the race full of untried 2 year olds,
the Hunter Chases or the hard-to-call novice hurdle handicaps.

Where races like these are concerned the bookmaker's traders are
outside of their comfort zone. In an ideal world they would choose
not to get involved. But in the real world they must. Unsure of what
they know or what they don't know, their book will be very much at
the mercy of the money. If they get it wrong, the shrewd money will
come and so will the unwanted liabilities. It's a stressful
situation for the traders - and one where they can end up looking
pretty stupid.

They do not want to be picked off by the smart money. Eyes will be
glued to Betfair and Oddschecker all morning watching for clues and
warnings in the movements of the market. Bets placed will be
scrutinised closely. Traders will be looking for clues as to which
animals they might be the wrong price on. They'll want to identify
those instances as early as possible - before too much liability is
worked up. They will not want to be a stand-out price on anything
attracting support.

Specialisation is the key to long-term profits...

The lesson here is that there's so much racing to cover that even
the bookmaker and his trading team - with all the financial clout,
human resources and technical expertise you could wish for at their
disposal - cannot master every single area of racing. So what are
the chances of the individual punter managing the feat? Slim at
best.

It's something to bear in mind. There are so many meetings and so
many races for so many different type of animal that no punter can
hope to keep on top of it all and develop a coherent approach. No
punter can expect to be the Jack of all trades.

The solution is specialisation. If you focus your attention on one
small area you can become an expert - and that's a real edge. You
can know more about a small group of horses, a trainer, a course, a
jockey or a specific race type than the vast majority of people you
are betting against - with a minimum of effort. And it will give you
an edge over the hard-pressed bookmaker who has no choice but to get
involved in everything that is going on.

Exclusive Invitation - Join Racing Angles now to get my race info
for the weekend...

Talking of specialising - this weekend I'm looking, in-depth, at one
race in particular...

It's the first week of my new Racing Angles service being 'live' and
my Big Race Focus - available only to Racing Angles members - will
be on the Boylesports.com Gold Cup at Cheltenham on Saturday.

The good news is that as a Horse Racing Focus reader, you are the
first to be offered access to this information...

And not only that - I've arranged for you to have a 28-day 'guest
membership' to the service so you can take a look at the website,
emails and all the advice I'll be sending out.. Plus - you get an
exclusive discount on the full membership price AND it's all covered
by a rock solid 12-month money-back guarantee.

Join here: http://www.shopatoxonpress.com/RA77HRF/

My Big Race Focus email will be sent to Racing Angles members on
Friday. And I'm updating the website with my latest trends, analysis
and findings on a daily basis.

If you've already joined up - I'll be in touch shortly. And if you
haven't - there's still time to get on board before the weekend's
racing...

http://www.shopatoxonpress.com/RA77HRF/

Until next time, be lucky.

16th December 2009

Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus...

• Looking back to get ahead...
  
• What time can tell you...
  
• Races that produce winners...

Looking back to get ahead...

For many punters the game is all about what will happen later today
or tomorrow or next month. Racing moves so fast and as soon as one
race/meeting is over then the vast majority of racing punters are
straight onto the next without even so much as the most cursory look
backwards.

However, it can pay you real dividends to take the time to review
recent events once the dust has settled. Once the raging bandwagon
has moved on we can reflect at our own leisure on what we have
actually seen and what it might mean in future races. I always find
it a useful and informative exercise. 

Cheltenham played host to yet another excellent two days of racing
last week. But just as important as what happened is what we can
extract from it in terms of useful information for the future. What
we can learn now may well inform the winning bets we place further
down the line.

What time can tell you...

I'm always keen to compare and contrast the race times posted by
horses winning contests over the same distance on the same card. It
isn't always a conclusive or even an informative practice but it is
worth making the effort because now and again some of the race times
tell a story - one that's often missed by the media and the punditry
industry in their headlong dash on towards what's happening next.

For example, let's take a look at the race times for the chase
events run over the 2m5f track on the New Course over Friday and
Saturday:

Weird Al won the Class 2 Novice chase in a time significantly slower
than Sound Strike in Friday's Handicap and Poquelin in the
Boylesports Gold Cup on Saturday. You'd expect the classier field of
the Boylesports to post a better time than the novices. Maybe we'd
expect a Class 3 handicap field - given the experience of the
runners - to post a better time too? But over 20 seconds better? Not
really.

Weird Al was reported as staying on strongly - a race reader's
comment that can look impressive when taken out of context. The
context as far as this race is concerned is that the field was small
(with just 5 runners) and the pace was almost non-existent - turning
the race into something of a sprint finish. Weird Al staying on
strongly might owe as much (if not more) to the slow pace and his
not needing to make much effort early on as it does to anything
innate within the horse.

The horse now has 3 wins on the bounce in his record. That row of
111s in his form record is the kind of thing that can attract plenty
of betting support next time out. Now I'm not saying the horse
wouldn't have won even if the pace were stronger. But the fact is
this was only the horse's 2nd start over fences and it remains to be
seen how he will fare in a sterner test against more opponents off a
stronger pace. Lining up in such a field I'd be thinking of him as a
potential lay if the price was short enough.

Though his form record is minimal there are additional things we can
say about the horse. Firstly, he handles ground with cut - he's 3
wins and a 2nd place from 4 efforts. Secondly, the horse can come
back from a big break to do well. He was 2nd of 16 on his racecourse
debut. His first two wins came off breaks of 323 and 359 days
respectively. Thirdly, he likes Cheltenham where he's scored twice
so far.

Races that produce horses...

Certain races have a habit of producing winners that go on to win
again and again further down the line. One such race on the Saturday
card at Cheltenham was the 3m1f 110yds Class 2 Novice Chase which
has produced winners the like of Sir Rembrandt, Joe Lively and What
A Friend in recent years.

The expectation will be that this year's winner, the Paul Nicholls
trained Inchidaly Rock, will also move on to better things in the
future. He ended up an easy winner - 9 lengths - a very good
performance when you consider this was only his second chase start,
he made a bad error at the first ditch and wasn't going at all well
when they started the second circuit. The longer the race went the
better he got - this horse definitely likes a trip and will probably
go further than this.

The horse goes well either way round - with 3 wins from 3 going
right-handed and 1 from 4 with 2 seconds going left. Soft and heavy
ground plays to his strengths - though he did finish 2nd on good
ground (good to soft in places) at Aintree in a Listed Hurdle in the
spring.

Hey Big Spender, which finished 2nd behind Inchidaly Rock, should
also be noted. Yes, he's been beaten by Inchidaly Rock twice now -
first at Exeter and then here - whilst winning a handicap event at
Newbury in between times. It's worth highlighting that Hey Big
Spender took on Inchidaly Rock at 3 miles or more on both occasions.
He didn't seem to get home on Saturday - and against an out and out
stayer that's fatal.

I'd like to see Hey Big Spender dropped back down to 2m4f-2m6f. Both
his career wins have been chalked up at that type of distance. I'd
like to see him on ground with cut - either good to soft or soft.
I'd also fancy him in a bigger field as he appears to appreciate the
pace a bigger field generates. He's had 6 goes with 13 or more
opponents and he's won twice with other creditable performances to
boot. I prefer him going left-handed where he's had 2 wins from 5
efforts. Going right doesn't seem to get the same outcome. He's had
6 goes going right in Class 3 or worse races and drawn a blank. Both
his wins have after a break of less than 21 days from racing.

Until next time, be lucky.

23rd December 2009

Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus...

• Angles on the all weather...
  
• Plenty of short-priced options and profit...
  
• Two to oppose and one to avoid...
  
• Strugglers on the sand...

Angles on the all-weather...

The all-weather racing is not my favourite. But I know there are
plenty of you out there who do have a punt on it - and plenty more
who will turn their focus to races on the all-weather if that's the
only punting fare on offer. Given the kind of wintery conditions we
can expect over the next couple of months - and the inevitable loss
of multiple jumps fixtures - maybe even the most hardened anti-
sanders amongst us might learn to be grateful for the all-weather
menu.

The All-Weather (AW) season got underway on November 9th and will
run through to March 26th 2110. In other words, it's just getting
going and we've a few weeks of pretty intensive all-weather racing
in front of us.

So how do we turn a profit on this all-weather game? How do we
extract winning bets from the seemingly endless procession of Class
6 handicaps and Sellers put on at Kempton, Lingfield, Southwell and
Wolverhampton? Where is our cutting edge?
 
Plenty of short priced options...

Well I know where mine is and exactly where my attentions will be
focused if it boils down to relying on the odd all-weather bet to
keep body and soul together during January and February.

I will be concentrating my efforts on identifying horses which are
overestimated by the rest of the market and then laying them on the
betting exchanges. It's not a bad strategy at all on the all-
weather. For one, there's no shortage of short-priced clunkers to
pick from. Look at the records of horses going off at 4/1 or less at
all the AW tracks from 2003 to date (Kempton from 2006 when AW
started at the track):

Talk about consistency. At every track over 70% of horses going off
at 4/1 or less get turned over. Losing shorties are not only
frequent - across the board - they also produce the kinds of profits
that give you a bit of a tingle. This next table covers the same
period as the one above but shows the profit you'd have made had you
laid every horse going off at 4/1 or less at each of the courses to
a £100 levels stake:

When I see figures like this I wonder if the AW racing is more
interesting than it first appears.
 
Consistent profits for disciplined layers...

The frequency and profitability of these losing shorties is
consistent and reliable too. Take a look at how things have worked
out for the layers of short-priced horses at these tracks during
2009:

The losing strike rate is consistent with the longer term trend we
looked at earlier. And so too are the profits as illustrated in the
following table:

Now I'm not saying I'll be laying every single runner going off at
4/1 or less on the AW over the next few weeks. What I am saying is
that there is no shortage of fancied horses losing on the AW. And
that opposing that group of horses and laying them on the betting
exchanges produces consistent and long-term income/profit. Bottom
line: short priced horses on the sand should be looked at closely
for flaws and weaknesses - with a view to laying those whose prices
overestimate their true chances of winning. 

Three to oppose and one to avoid...

Based on the historic record it's very clear that it would be
possible for the disciplined exchange player to lay all the
qualifying horses blind and make exceptional profits over the long
term. But the chances you're not looking to become an AW laying
machine. Who's got the time? Instead, like me, you're probably going
to be looking for the odd profitable bet here and there - ticking-
over money.

In that case you want to be finding the 'sweet spots' within the
overall trend and narrowing your focus - so that the workload is
manageable and the outlook favourable. In the New Year I'm going to
be bringing you a few such methods. For now here are a couple of
angles that will pay dividends long term.

Chris Catlin is one of the leading jockeys on the AW. He rides
plenty of winners but he rides plenty of losers too - and plenty at
short prices. He's been on 622 short priced horses and won on just
169 - a losing strike rate of 72.8%. Laid blind to £100 level stakes
he's produced a layer's profit of £3921.

Robert Winston's record tells a similar story. From 405 qualifiers
he's ridden 108 winners - a losing strike rate of 73.3% producing
£2891 profit if laid to £100 level stakes.

Jamie Spencer is rider whose short-priced AW horses are best left
alone and not laid. Spencer's winning strike rate on these shorties
is well over 30% and he's been moderately profitable for backers
rather than layers.

Richard Hannon is a trainer whose AW shorties I'd be happy to
oppose. From 457 qualifiers he's saddled 119 winners. The other
73.9% of his shorties lost - producing a profit of £5882 to a £100
levels stake.

Strugglers on the sand...

It always pays to keep an eye on who is struggling at any given time
with their string. Richard Fahey is one to avoid backing at the
moment on the AW. He's had just a single winner from his last 64
runners on the AW. But his horses are still worth noting - for
laying purposes. He's had 18 short-priced horses go off in that 62 -
and that kind of 'wrong response' in the marketplace represents an
easy source of profit for observant layers.

Other current strugglers to be aware of at the moment include P
Howling (3 winners from 72 runners) and A J McCabe (1 winner from 57
runners).

That's all for now. It only remains for me to thank you for reading
over the last 12 months and to wish you and yours a merry Xmas. I'll
be back on January 6th - when we'll try to get the New Year off to a
bang with some more profitable angles we can adopt during January
and February.

Until next year, be lucky.