Directory of Past issues - February 2009

6th Feb 09 - A Golden opportunity in the Gold Cup

13th Feb 09 - My 16/1 fancy for the Ryanair Chase...

20th Feb 09 - Two bits of unmissable Cheltenham value

27th Feb 09 - Another very tasty price for Cheltenham

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27th February 2009

Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus...

• One at a tasty price in the RSA Chase...
  
• Venetia Williams is at it again...

Taking a squint at the RSA Chase...

The G1 RSA Chase for novices is run on the Wednesday of the
Festival over a distance just in excess of 3 miles. In recent years
the race has been won by quality horses like Albertas Run, Denman,
Star De Mohaison, Trabolgan and Rule Supreme.

What A Friend is the current favourite for this year's race -
available at a best price of just 5/1. Trained by Paul Nicholls (2
winners and a place from 8 runners in this race) it's no surprise
the betting public have latched onto the horse - especially since
it won last time out at Cheltenham in December.

Good form last time out has been a key trend in this race. 31 of
the last 34 winners finished 1st or 2nd in their last run before
the RSA.

From 3 runs at Cheltenham, What A Friend has won once and finished
3rd once. The horse was pulled-up at last year's Festival when
behind and disappointing in the Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle.

What a Friend has chances but he'll have his work cut out for sure.
I said last week that previous festival form can be significant.
And there's no shortage of good 'previous' amongst this year's RSA
entries:

• Ballyfitz won last year's Pertemps Hurdle - beating 23 home.
  
• Massini's Maguire won the 2007 renewal of the Ballymore
  Properties Novices´ Hurdle - with Tidal Bay, Imperial Commander,
  Catch Me, Silverburn and Aran Concerto finishing behind him.
  
• Nicanor won the 2006 renewal of the Royal & SunAlliance
  Novices´ Hurdle beating Denman and Refinement into the places.
  
• Kicks for Free was 2nd in last year's Coral Cup.
  
• Gone to Lunch was 5th of 18 in last year's Albert Bartlett
  Novices´ Hurdle.
  
• Wichita Lineman won the Brit Insurance Novices´ Hurdle in
  2007.

Of these runners I'm happy to strike a line through Nicanor. He's
only ever run in a single chase - finishing 4th of 17 at Gowran
Park over just 2m2f earlier this month on his first run back since
April 2006. Winning the RSA would be a big ask with that kind of
preparation - and I'm happy to bet against it.

I'm also happy to leave Gone to Lunch alone. There's been at least
9 runners in the RSA every year since 2003 - last year there were
11, in 2007 there were 17 and in 2006 there were 15 - and I expect
a good-size field this year. Looking at Gone To Lunch's record I
question whether that's going to suit him.

He's had 7 races with 8 or fewer runners - and he's won 5 of those
and finished 2nd twice. In races with more than 8 runners his
record isn't exactly bad. He's had 8 runs with 2 wins and five good
showings plus a Festival fall in 2007 when confronted with 23
opponents. But those 2 wins were in lower class events.

I suspect at the top level Gone To Lunch needs a small field in
order to prevail. He's had 5 goes in Graded company and finished
first on the only occasion he was facing less than 8 opponents.

Looking at the wider Cheltenham form...

Wider Cheltenham form is also important to me because it serves to
underline a horse's ability to cope with the unique demands of the
course - its undulations, the tough fences and the uphill finish.

The table below highlights just how much decent Cheltenham form is
on offer - over hurdles and fences. Ballyfitz is by far the most
experienced Cheltenham horse with 6 runs at the course - from which
he's produced 3 wins and 2 places. The place clearly suits him.

The table below details the chasing form of these horses at Cheltenham.

Once again, Ballyfitz has most experience and is the most
successful with 2 wins and a place from his 4 trips over the
Cheltenham fences. He's also achieved almost as much as What A
Friend in chases on the course judged on RPR ratings.

Massini's Maguire and Wichita Lineman haven't tackled the fences at
Cheltenham and I think this will stand against them. Experience at
Cheltenham is key.

Decisions, Decisions...

When What A Friend won at Cheltenham back in December, Ballyfitz
was seven lengths back in 2nd place. It sounds like an easy win -
but Ballyfitz was giving What A Friend 3lbs that day. In the RSA
they'll be going off at level weights.

I'm hoping a big field turns out on the day. Ballyfitz has run in
races with 15 runners or more 5 times and won 4 of them. Don't get
me wrong, What A Friend can also handle a big field and the hot
pace it generates. But right now, I'd rather be on Ballyfitz each-
way at the 33/1 available with Totesport than on What A Friend at a
pretty thin 5/1.

Be aware though that both Ballyfitz and What A Friend break age
trends for this race. 12 of the last 14 winners were aged 7 or 8.
Ballyfitz is 9 years of age. There have been 19 runners aged 9 or
over in this race over the last ten years. Not a single one has
placed.  What A Friend is just 6 years old - but his connections
can take heart from the fact that Florida Pearl won the RSA at age
6 in 1998 and Star De Mohaison won at 5 in 2006.

Massini's Maguire (8), Kicks for Free (8) Shining Gale (7) and
Wichita Lineman (8) fit more closely with age trends. Of these only
Massini's Maguire and Wichita Lineman finished 1st or 2nd last time
out. But when push comes to shove I'm plumping for course form over
trends.

Venetia Williams was at it again...

Speaking of course form...Venetia Williams was at it again at
Leicester on Tuesday. Regular readers of HRF will recall that we
highlighted her record with chasers at Leicester back in November.

I can't take all the credit - much as I might like to. My
observations were based on comments made by ex-jockey Mick
Fitzgerald on At The Races. He highlighted how Leicester is a
unique course and how Venetia Williams has developed a knack for
producing winning chasers there.

She didn't disappoint on Tuesday with Lightning Strike (another
with an RSA entry) winning the Novice Chase. The 8/13f starting
price doesn't look like much of a call - but in the hours leading
up to the race you could back the Danehill Dancer gelding at 11/8.

Back in November I told you: 'Whenever Venetia Williams sends a
chaser to Leicester it is worth taking a close look.' Since the
beginning of 2002 Venetia Willams has notched up 13 winners out of
45 with her chasers at Leicester. The market is a fair guide as to
when to get on or not as the table below illustrates.

These figures show that backing her runners at shorter prices
produces a profit over time. Obviously, there aren't many bets per
year - but the angle is still worth making a note of and bearing in
mind whenever there's a meeting at Leicester. Exchange layers
should beware her shorter price chasers at this course. One more
thing is clear from these numbers - leave Venetia's long shot
chasers well alone.

Don't forget we're changing days...

This will be the last Friday issue of HRF. We're changing our day
of publication to Tuesday. So I'll be back in your email box this
coming Tuesday (March 3rd) with more ante-post coverage of the
Cheltenham Festival factors. During the four days of the Festival
I'll be in touch every day - with trends, angles and approaches to
help you make the most of your
bets. 

Until Tuesday, be lucky.

20th February 2009

Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus...

• Lest we forget... previous Festival form...
  
• Wider Cheltenham form has value...
  
• Where I'm at with the World Hurdle...

Lest we forget previous Festival form...

Let me take you back to the afternoon of 16th March 2004. It's
Tuesday, the first day of the Cheltenham Festival and just after
half past three. Hardy Eustace has just won the Champion Hurdle
making virtually all the running.

He's the longest priced winner of the Champion since 1989 having
been sent off at 33/1 - virtually friendless in the market. It's
that long price that's got people scratching their heads as Hardy
Eustace is led into the winner's enclosure.

We're asking ourselves how he could have been sent off so big. How
could he have gone off with his claims so ignored? The fact is we
should have seen it coming.

Why? Because Hardy Eustace had form - Festival form - having won
the previous year's Royal & SunAlliance Novices' Hurdle. And when
it comes to the Festival - previous Festival really matters. The
only other 2004 Champion Hurdle runner with Festival form was
Rooster Booster - and he finished 2nd.

The following year punters didn't forget. Hardy Eustace proved that
Festival form is key by retaining his title - but this time at a
skinny 7/2.

Some horses just love the Festival...

The Hardy Eustace phenomenon was no one-off aberration - not by any
stretch of the imagination. Every year horses which have come to
the fore at previous Festivals come to the fore once again.

Let's just stay with the 2004 Festival for a moment longer. Of the
20 winners at the Festival that year 8 had either won or been
placed at a previous festival. Last year's winners list was
similarly smattered with horses that had previous Festival form.

• Tidal Bay won the Arkle at 8/1 - having finished 2nd in the
  2007 Ballymore Properties Novices´ Hurdle.
  
• Katchit won the Champion Hurdle at 10/1 - having won the 2007
  renewal of the JCB Triumph Hurdle.
  
• Inglis Drever won his third world hurdle - the only time he
  got beaten at the Festival he still finished in the frame. He was
  2nd in the 2004 Royal & SunAlliance Novices´ Hurdle.
  
• Our Vic won the Ryanair Chase at 4/1 - having been 2nd in the
  same race behind Taranis in 2007 and 3rd in the 2004 renewal of the
  Royal & SunAlliance Chase.
  
• Tiger Cry won the Grand Annual Chase after finishing 2nd in
  the 2007 renewal.
  
• Denman won the Gold Cup - having previously won the Royal &
  Sun Alliance Chase and finished 2nd in the Royal & Sun Alliance
  Novice Hurdle.
  
• With the benefit of hindsight maybe we should have even
  foreseen Mister McGoldrick's 'surprise' 66/1 win in the Racing Post
  Plate. He too had Festival form - finishing 3rd in the 2006
  Champion Chase.

Plenty of horses that placed also boasted previous good form at the
Festival:

• Voy Por Ustedes finished 2nd in the Champion Chase behind the
  brilliant Master Minded - having previously won an Arkle and a
  Champion Chase of his own.
  
• Noland finished 3rd in the Arkle - having previously won the
  Anglo Irish Bank Supreme Novices´ Hurdle in 2006.
  
• Native Jack, a 14-year-old veteran, tuned back the clock and
  finished a 40/1 2nd in the Cross Country Chase. Surprise. Maybe so.
  But he also had Festival form - winning the same race in 2006.
  
• Punjabi finished 3rd in the Champion Hurdle with an SP of
  25/1 - having finished 4th of 23 in the 2007 JCB Triumph Hurdle.
  
• Over The Creek was 2nd in the National Hunt Chase Challenge
  Cup. In 2005 he'd been 2nd in the Brit Insurance Novices´ Hurdle.

The repeat formula is worth taking to heart...

Year after year Festival form gets recycled and there's a definite
lesson to be learnt. Some horses love the Festival. Something about
the occasion seems to energise certain horses and gets the best out
of them repeatedly.

Maybe it's the noise, or the excitement and tension. Maybe it's the
red-hot pace the races are run at. Maybe it's the specific demands
of the course - the undulations, the tough jumps and that strength-
sapping finish up the hill. Whatever it is, it pays to note the
horses that respond positively to it.

And there's an inverse conclusion to reach. Some horses don't like
it. Horses which have already proved not to be suited to the
particular demands and atmosphere of the Festival by failing to win
or place on more than one occasion ought not be counted on to
reverse that trend.

Maybe it's no huge surprise that the same horses do well at
multiple Festivals. After all, the best horses tend to pitch up at
Cheltenham and we ought to expect them to do well. However, as
highlighted above, a few Festival specialists go off at big prices
and its worth the effort involved to winkle them out.

Wider Cheltenham form also has meaning...

In addition to Festival form it's a definite bonus if your fancy
has non-Festival Cheltenham form. I like my fancies to have a
consistent record at Cheltenham - full stop. It's a tough course
which makes exacting demands and a horse which has proven time and
again that it can handle the place and be competitive there is a
better bet than a horse that hasn't.

Plenty of those which finished in the frame at last year's Festival
had very decent form figures at Cheltenham going into the Festival.
For example:

It's definitely something to bear in mind.

Where I'm at with the World Hurdle...

Taking this approach into the World Hurdle I think. Fair Along is
very interesting. He has Festival Form - 2nd in the 2006 renewal of
the JCB Triumph Hurdle. From 12 career runs at Cheltenham he's won
4 times, finished second 3 times and finished 3rd 4 times. In other
words, he's only finished out of the frame once. His best RPR and
his best speed figure were both recorded at the track. 

Kasbah Bliss is the current 11/8 favourite for the race - never
having won at Cheltenham though he did finish 2nd in last year's
World Hurdle. Punchestowns has finished in the frame on all 3
occasions he's run at Cheltenham and is a best-priced
7/2. Big Bucks is 2 wins from 3 at Cheltenham and makes slightly
more appeal at 6/1. But, given Fair Along's Cheltenham record, the
12/1 currently available makes him a very interesting each-way
proposition.

I like to bet each-way at the Festival. The races are extremely
competitive, every horse is tuned for the day and every horse is
trying. A horse can run the race of his life at the Festival and
still not win. In such an intense climate I like to find
competitive horses who I believe can make the frame - and bet
accordingly.

Mobaasher is another I like as an each-way possible for the World
Hurdle. He has Festival form - finishing 4th in last year's
Pertemps Hurdle. And on the other occasions he's run at Cheltenham
he's finished 1st and 3rd. In terms of RPR ratings, what he has to
make up on the principle runners isn't insurmountable. At the
currently available 33/1 I think he's a bit of value.

Heads up...

Just a quick note to let you know that from March 3rd HRF will be
landing in your email box on Tuesday rather than Friday. During
Cheltenham week we'll be in your email box every day of the
Festival just like last year - with previews, insights and angles
designed to help you make the best betting decisions. Not long to
go now!!

Until next time, be lucky.

13th February 2009

Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus...

• My 16/1 fancy for the Ryanair Chase...
• Don't be sucked into short-priced certainties...
  
• The squeaky wheel that needs no grease...

My 16/1 shot for the Ryanair Chase...

I'd planned to jot down some thoughts on the World Hurdle. But I'm saving that for my next issue now. Why? Because, like politicians, we racing punters are hostage to events and when things happen we have to react. Running plans for the horse I fancy, and some moves in the market, have forced me to focus my attention this week on the Ryanair Chase run on the Thursday of the Cheltenham Festival - March 12th.

I'll tell you a little about my fancy. Aged 5, the youngest horse in the race, and running for only the third time over fences, this horse finished 2nd of 21 runners in a G3 handicap at the Cheltenham Festival last year.

In its next race, just three weeks later, this same horse tackled the big Grand National fences in the Topham Chase and won with a very bold display of jumping - beating 28 rivals home and giving weight to all but two of his opponents. His performance prompted his trainer to say 'He is barely 16 hands high but he is a horse on springs.' His rider was no less effusive, saying 'He danced round there. He was fantastic all the way.'

Those are pretty impressive performances from a young horse at the start of his chasing career. Since then the horse has won again at Ascot and his overall record reads 3 wins, a 2nd and a 3rd from 6 runs over fences. I am, of course, talking about the precocious and progressive Gwanako, trained by Paul Nicholls and ridden to his successes by Ruby Walsh.

Gwanako fits the Ryanair Chase bill...

The Nicholls and Walsh partnership has form of some significance in the Ryanair Chase. They won the race in 2005 with Thisthatandtother. And they won it again in 2007 with Taranis. In 2008 they saddled Turko to a 3rd place finish. In other words, since the inception of the Ryanair Chase in 2005, Paul Nicholls and his jockey have a strong track record of finding a horse for the race.

Something else that Gwanako has got going for him is previous Festival form - his 2nd place performance in last year's renewal of the Racing Post Plate. Previous form at Cheltenham Festival meetings is very significant in terms of finding winners in upcoming Fesival meetings. I'll bring you more on this significant trend and how to make the most of it next week.

Gwanako is one of the youngest horses in the Ryanair Chase. By the time race day comes round he'll only have raced 7 times over fences. Having watched him race last year I feel he's open to sufficient improvement to be very competitive in what is a Championship event for the two and a half milers.

I am not alone in my thinking. All this week Gwanako has been backed in. Bookmakers have been cutting his odds - and the best price available is now 16/1. With Gwanako entered to run in the Betfair Chase at ASscot tomorrow (where he's 7/2 to take the prize) we could see his odds tumble further - which is why I draw your attention to him today. Take a look at the horse yourself and draw your own conclusions.

• You'll find the latest odds on the Ryanair Chase here...

http://odds.sportsxtra.co.uk/horse-racing/antepost/cheltenham-2009/ryanair-chase

Don't get sucked into short-priced certainties....

One thing recent Cheltenham Festivals have taught us is to not get sucked into horses which appear to be short-price certainties.

When horses are all the rage in the press and media and when the rest of the market is backing them into short prices it can seem like the individual horses concerned are somehow unbeatable.

Results at previous Festivals demonstrate how inaccurate that view is - and how expensive it can be to put your faith in it. In 2008, 18 of the 23 horses sent off at prices of 4/1 or lower lost. In 2007, 15 of the 19 horses sent off at 4/1 or lower got beaten. Big races are generally more competitive than the market would have you believe - fertile ground for finding horses to oppose and horses to lay on the exchanges.

Getting sucked into the invincibilty of short prices horses is a trap you want to avoid. And it's as well to make a note of it and get it fixed in your mind right now - before the real hype gets underway.

A squeaky wheel that needs no grease....

The weights for this year's Grand National were unveiled on Tuesday in London. And, as has become the custom on these occasions, there was much wailing and gnashing of teeth from the contingent of Irish trainers present.

Willie Mullins thinks Snowy Morning (last year's 3rd) has been allotted too much weight by the handicapper. Mouse Morris thinks the same about Irish Grand National Winner, Hear The Echo. So too Charlie Swan about One Cool Cookie and Tom Mullins about Chelsea Harbour.

It's all good fun and games. But the Irish haven't really got too much cause for complaint when you look at the last few renewals of the National. They've had 4 out of the last 6 winners and last year, though the winner was trained in England, Irish horses filled the 2nd, 3rd and 4th place berths.

Clearly, Irish horses are a serious threat and certainly haven't been handicapped out of it in recent years - and I wouldn't pay too much mind to what the crafty Irish handlers are saying this year.

It seems to me that the Irish trainers are working on the principle that the squeaky wheel gets the grease. They're bellyaching to the press in the hope of pressurizing the handicapper to treat them favourably in the future. Premier League managers do the same thing to put pressure on referees.

Right now the Irish are talking down their big name horses. We will find out on the big day how justified they are in doing so.

Until next time, be lucky.

9th February 2009

Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus...

• Denman drifts after getting beat...
• Why Madison is too short in the Gold Cup market...
  
• The Pullen take on Neptune Collonges...

'He isn't going to improve enormously...'

Just under six and a half minutes - that's all the time it took on Saturday at Kempton Park to alter the Gold Cup picture completely. For the first time in his chasing career Denman got beaten - and well beaten at that. Running without sparkle or his trademark panache, jumping hesitantly early on and in obvious trouble 3 out, he finished a 23-length second to Hennessey Gold Cup winner, Madison Du Berlais.

Senior handicapper, Phil Smith, reckons Denman's effort was some two stone and more below last season's Gold Cup performance. The tacky ground, the sharp right-handed course, the 300+ days since his last run - none of this would have assisted Denman. But it's clear from trainer Paul Nicholls post-race comments that there's more for Denman's ante-post backers to worry about than ring-rustiness.

'I'm hoping that run will spark him into life but it could be hard to get him back to what he was. It might come, it might not. Some horses are never the same after they get to the pinnacle of a championship race and that may be the case with him... Maybe what we've seen today is all we've got. The Gold Cup last year may just have been his day of days... We have done our best and he will improve a bit for the run but to be honest what you see today is what you get - he isn't going to improve enormously.'

What we saw is unlikely to be good enough and bookmakers reacted accordingly - pushing Denman out to 9/2 to retain his crown at the Festival and finding few prepared to back the Champ. Kauto Star is promoted to favourite at a best price of 7/4.

Madison does not like undulations or a stiff finish...

Before Saturday's race Madison Du Berlais was 66/1 with most firms to win the Gold Cup. Earlier in the season a number of exchange players backed the David Pipe horse at a massive 639/1 and other three-figure prices. Now, after beating a below par Denman, the Pipe runner has contracted to just 8/1 generally - with the firms and on the exchanges. That's some market reappraisal.

Though the form might not stand up too straight when looked at in hindsight, Madison Du Berlais won Saturday's race in convincing enough style (just as he won the Hennessey at Newbury in November). And connections are correct to say he's earned the right to take his chance at the Festival. But my view is that the horse's current price overestimates his true chances of winning the Gold Cup. And I'd be very wary of backing the horse. Here's why...

Madison Du Berlais has had five runs at Cheltenham. He's been beaten each time. The problem seems to be the undulations of the track and its stiff uphill finish. Inspection of the horse's wider record supports that view. On undulating tracks the horse has run 8 times and won twice. On tracks with a stiff finish he's raced 13 times and won just once. I'm not knocking the horse - there's a lot to like about him - I just don't fancy him up the Cheltenham Hill.

Going for the Gold Cup has never been the long-term plan for Madison Du Berlais this season. It wouldn't make any sense for connections to target a Festival race when the horse clearly needs a flat track to produce his best. His sudden emergence as a 'contender' in the Gold Cup owes as much to circumstance as it does to his improvement this year.

Whilst I'm happy to swerve Madison Du Berlais if he goes to Cheltenham, I'm keeping an eye on his upcoming entries. He's still entered in the Blue Square Gold Cup at Haydock on Saturday and the Racing Post Chase at Kempton on the 21st February. Given that he's obviously in rude health, and that these races are contested on flat tracks, he'd be a real probable should connections decide to stick to the plan and run him to his strengths.

My take on Neptune Collonges...

Neptune Collonges is another horse it's very easy to like. Third in last year's Gold Cup, there were quite a few commentators who felt that day's impressive run would have been good enough to beat Kauto Star the previous year. Last year he would likely have beaten Kauto Star and finished 2nd had the race been 20 yards longer.

Neptune Collonges has plenty of top-class experience and, being only 8, can be expected to improve on last year's efforts. It's no surprise he's currently 3rd favourite in the Gold Cup market and as short as 11/2 in some places.

But I haven't backed him and my analysis of him would make it hard to do so. For a start he's another horse whose record suggests the undulations of Cheltenham aren't ideal for him. Like Madison Du Berlais, Neptune Collonges has had 5 races at Cheltenham and drawn a blank in terms of wins. He's had 7 goes on undulating tracks in total and only won once.

And there's something else that puts me off him. On left handed tracks like Cheltenham he's won 4 races - but has needed 14 races to get them. On right handers he's also won 4 - but he's only needed 5 races to tot those wins up.

For me he's a betting proposition on a right-handed flatter track and the Punchestown Festival is likely to play host to him later in the spring. His record there is top class. He's won 2 from 2 and they were both Grade 1 contests. If Neptune Collonges goes to contest the Guinness Gold Cup he won't be much of a price - and that's bad news for us punters.

But racing is about more than betting. For connections it's about winning top prizes. And, for my money, Neptune Collonges is more likely to achieve that at Punchestown (where the track conformation favours him) than he is at Cheltenham (where his record says it doesn't).

The Gold Cup is wide open...

Denman has question marks against him. Cheltenham is not the ideal course for Madison Du Berlais or Neptune Collonges. And Kauto Star has to prove that he can get up the hill like the force of old. The bottom line is that you can pick a hole in each of the four market leaders.

No wonder people are saying it's developing into an open, some would say messy, race. And no wonder the bookies are reporting a flow of money for outsiders - like my own pick, Star De Mohaison, Air Force One, Exotic Dancer and Barbers Shop.

This last horse, incidentally, might represent a trading opportunity. It's owned by the Queen and no doubt the press will latch onto this in the build up to the race. There's a strong possibility overkill coverage will generate support for the horse from the betting public and get it sent off at a shorter price than would otherwise be the case. Having a little nibble now and laying it off on race day could leave with you with a nice free bet running for you. Just a thought.

Right now, given the events of the weekend, I'm happy to stick solely with Star De Mohaison as an ante-post Gold Cup pick and take another look at the shape of the race and the market closer to race day. On Friday I'll report, among other things, on where my thinking is on this year's World Hurdle.

Until next time, be lucky.