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4th February 2010
Good morning, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus...
- Knowing just a little more than the next guy...
- The difference between information and intelligence...
- 6 things it pays to know about Cape Cross progeny...
Knowing just a little more than the next guy...
I'm not a big believer in pretending. Nothing irritates me more than
coming into contact with a bluffer - someone who sets out to give
you the impression he knows a good deal more about one thing or
another than he actually does. It's an ego thing. You meet these
people in all walks of life - and the gambling arena is no
exception.
When it comes to horse racing I'd be pretending if I said I knew
anything practical about the breeding or conformation of racehorses.
I don't. I leave that to the professionals. I can watch a horse walk
- but I won't be able to tell you from doing that watching whether
or not the horse will stay 1 mile 2 furlongs. I can look into a
horse's eye - with the best of them - but what I see will tell me
nothing about the horse's temperament and how it will likely fare in
the heat of battle on the racecourse.
I'm not a horseman - and I never will be. That side of things is a
complete and utter mystery to me. But one thing I do know is that
statistical analysis offers the punter a distinct edge in the
marketplace. And an edge can be as simple as knowing just a little
more about something than the next guy. Where bloodlines - sires and
their progeny (offspring) - are concerned my angle of approach and
attack is to stick with what I know - the stats.
The difference between information and intelligence...
Take Cape Cross, for example. I can tell you that Cape Cross is by
Green Desert (his sire) out of the Ahonoora mare Park Appeal. I can
tell you that during his racing career Cape Cross was trained by
Godolphin handler Saeed Bin Suroor and developed into a top class
miler. He won the 1998 Group 1 Lockinge and in 1999 won two Group 2
events - the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot and then the
Celebration Mile at Goodwood later in the summer.
Off he toddled to stud and over the years he's sired many notable
sons and daughters of his own - including last year's superhorse and
winner of the 2000 Guineas, the Derby and the Arc, Sea The Stars.
Cape Cross was 2nd behind Danehill on last year's turf Sire league
table - his 680 runners over the year produced 106 winners at 15.5%.
He was represented by 158 different offspring on the track and 71 of
these (45%) managed to notch up at least one win over the course of
the year.
Okay. That's what I call information. Anybody can get it. It's
widely available. All you need to do is look for it. But information
on its own doesn't actually help us find winners or avoid losers (or
find horses we want to lay on the exchanges). For that we have to
uncover real intelligence - the type of information which lends
itself to practical use in the betting arena. That's where crunching
the stats comes in...
6 things it pays to know about Cape Cross progeny...
The following angles are the result of statistical analysis of all
Cape Cross runners from the 1st January 2005 to the present day.
These angles will not produce bets every day of the year. Some
opportunities will only present themselves infrequently - and, even
then, further consideration of form, opponents, conditions and
circumstances might mean you decide not to get involved. But that's
fine. We're not looking to play Cape Cross runners day in day out.
Angles relating to Cape Cross should be considered just small
components of an overall portfolio of winner-finding (and, just as
importantly loser-finding) approaches - starting points for further
study. If these angles produce just 3 or 4 winning bets over the
course of the year then they will have served their purpose.
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Cape Cross doesn't have too many 2-year-old runners over 9
furlongs on all-weather tracks. But on the rare occasions he does
then it pays to take note. Since the beginning of 2005 just 11 such
runners have gone to post and 6 of them have recorded wins.
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If you wanted to extend your focus on the Cape Cross 2-year-
old all weather runners then you might also subject those which run
over a mile to focused consideration. Taken as a group the 2-year-
old runners over 8 and 9 furlongs have produced 12 winners from 42
runners at 28.5%.
-
On the turf I'd look to oppose Cape Cross 2-year-olds over 5
furlongs. Over the test period 36 such runners have gone to post and
only 4 have won. If you spot such a runner at short enough prices
and in a race where cases can be made elsewhere then consider laying
the Cape Cross progeny. Older runners on the AW (4-years-old and up)
should be avoided at 5 furlongs - where the Cape Cross record is
just 1 winner from 20 attempters. Any going off at short prices
should be considered for laying purposes. This trend is reflected on
the turf where just 3 older runners from 68 have won over the
minimum distance.
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His 2-year-old turf runners also appear to flounder on heavy
going. 25 runners over the test period have produced just a single
winner - and this group is worth considering for laying purposes.
-
On the turf runners of all ages conform to the same trend -
they don't like heavy going. Just 9 winners from 133 runners on
heavy testify to that fact. If you reduce the focus to older horses
(4-years-old and up) the record is 1 from 44 on heavy and just 8
from 148 runners on soft going. There's plenty of scope for finding
Cape Cross runners to lay on heavy and soft going.
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On the all-weather tracks it's no coincidence that Cape Cross
runners have the worst record at Southwell - where the fibres and
surface most resembles soft or heavy going. At left handed
Wolverhampton and Lingfield Cape Cross runners have a strike rate of
15.2% and 14.6% respectively - and since the beginning of 2005 the
runners at these courses have produced a combined 100+ point profit.
Runners at Kempton win 12.2% of the time. At Southwell the strike
rate is down to 10.4%.
Okay none of this makes us experts on bloodstock issues or even Cape
Cross. It's just a little intelligence - some knowledge we can put
to use to find some winners, avoid some losers and find horses ripe
for laying purposes on the exchanges. What's more its knowledge that
95% of those people you are betting against simply aren't aware of.
It's a little edge. And like a little knowledge, a little edge can
go a long way.
Until next time, be lucky.
11th February 2010
Good afternoon, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus...
- Looking forward to the weekend...
- The Totesport Trophy...
- One to watch from last week...
Looking forward to the weekend...
On Saturday Newbury plays host to the big hitters as Denman and
Master Minded finalise their respective preparations for the
Cheltenham Festival. Master Minded runs in the Game Spirit Chase
over 2 miles 1 furlong - his first appearance on the racecourse
since damaging a rib on his seasonal reappearance at Cheltenham in
November. Denman contests the Aon Chase over 3 miles.
Both horses will start at short prices and, for my part, I'll be
adopting a watching brief as opposed to wading into the betting.
Master Minded - coming back from injury - has something to prove.
And trainer Paul Nicholls has conceded that his charge is only 80%
fit at the moment. Denman is head and shoulders above his opponents.
He's rated 24lbs better than the next highest rated horse he'll face
on Saturday and if he stands up and runs anything like we know he
can then it should be something approaching a procession.
Master Minded will face the old warhorse Voy Por Ustedes in the Game
Spirit. The latter has been stepped back to the minimum distance
(plus a furlong) for the first time since being beaten 19 lengths by
Master Minded in the Champion Chase at the 2008 Festival.
Since then Voy Por Ustedes has been campaigned at distances of 2m4f
and up - and whilst he has won 3 of his 8 starts at the longer
distances (including the 2008 renewal of the Melling Chase at
Aintree where he reversed the form with Master Minded at the 2m4f
trip) he's often failed to sparkle in the way he did when younger.
Whether or not he retains the speed to be a top-level force at the
minimum distance is open to debate. Voy Por Ustedes has entries in
the Champion Chase and the Ryanair at the Festival. He's most likely
to appear in the latter - but should he confound his critics and
excel back at the minimum distance there could yet be a change in
his connections' Festival plans.
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The Totesport Trophy...
The real big betting heat at Newbury on Saturday is the Totesport
Trophy - a Grade 3 Class 1 handicap event for hurdlers run over an
extended 2 miles. Traditionally this is a trappy event for punters -
evidenced by recent winners going off at prices as big as 50/1.
However, there are a few trends and pointers that can help sort the
wheat from the chaff.
For a start it will pay to take note that no horse has carried more
than 11 stone and 7lbs to victory since 1968. Right now 24 runners
remain declared for the race. But we won't know exactly how the
weights are framed until just after noon tomorrow when the final
declarations are released. Quite a few of the hopefuls will be
hoping Andrew Turnell runs Blue Bajan. If he comes out of the race
then quite a few will be carrying a sight more weight than they
would want to.
In the last 10 years there have only been 8 renewals of the event -
the meeting was abandoned last year and in 2006. Of those 8 recent
winners 5 had raced 2 times or less during the season - suggesting
that horses who have been saved for the event (and which might well
be some way ahead of the handicapper) merit close consideration.
Another trend to bear in mind is that 7 of the last 8 winners had
run less than 15 times over hurdles - suggesting that unexposed
horses with a progressive profile hold the whip hand. In terms of
age only one winner in the last 8 renewals was outside the 5-7-year-
old age group.
Six winners of the last 8 renewals had already won a race earlier in
the season.
Nicky Henderson has three declared to run at the moment - Spirit
River, First Point and Fairyland. His runners should be looked at
very closely. He's saddled 3 winners of the last 8 renewals - Geos
in 2000, Landing Light in 2001 and Geos for a second time in 2004.
He targets the event every year. Newbury is his local course and he
likes to do well there.
His course record with yard jockey Barry Geraghty onboard reads 16
winners from 49 runners at 21%. But also pay attention to rides
taken by AP McCoy - he's won on 11 of the last 14 runners he's
piloted for Henderson.
Gary Moore is another trainer to take note of. He's won the vent
twice in recent years - with Wingman in 2008 and Heathcote in 2007.
This year he has Harry Tricker, Numide and First Avenue entered.
One to watch from last week...
Finally I want to let you in on one I'll be keeping an eye on in the
weeks to come. On the face of it Silk Affair's 5th place run in the
Grade 3 2m6f handicap at Sandown last Saturday wasn't particularly
noteworthy. The 5-year-old mare was beaten 12 lengths by the winner,
Beshabar and never threatened - spending most of the race towards
the rear.
However, the winner of last year's Fred Winter at the Festival was
driven along 2 out, stayed on and kept on up the run in - but never
had the pace to actually get into the business end of the race. I'll
be keeping an eye out to see if connections send her out over a
longer trip.
Her stamina doesn't seem to be in question and a step up in trip
might just be what is required to get Silk Affair back into the
winner's enclosure. She wants ground on the softer side of good or
worse and 4 of her 5 career wins have come when returning to the
track off a break off less than three weeks.
Until next time, be lucky.
18th February 2010
Good afternoon, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus...
- Trends for the Gold Cup at Haydock...
- Splitting fields at Wincanton and Ascot...
Trends for the Gold Cup at Haydock...
It's the Grade 3 Class 1 Blue Square Gold Cup Chase at Haydock on
Saturday. Run over 3 miles and 4 furlongs it's a handicap for 5-
year-olds and up. Right now it's soft on the chase course. 15
runners remain in at the overnight stage.
There are 9 runners left in the race aged 10 or over. Over the last
10 years this age group has come off worst (3 winners from 50
runners) against the 7-9- year old age group (6 winners from 73
runners) and focusing on the younger horses is one way of splitting
the field.
It might also be helpful to look for unexposed types - 7 of the last
9 winners of the event had less than 12 chases under their belt
coming into the race.
Focusing purely on in-form horses is another way of splitting the
field. Each of the last nine renewals of this event (the meeting was
abandoned in 2002) have been won by a horse coming into the race
with a 1st or 2nd place finish in one or both of its last two runs.
8 of these winners had earned their best Racing Post Rating/Raceform
Rating on one of those runs.
Weight trends also offer a perspective - only 2 of the last 9
winners carried more than 11 stone 1lb to victory. Remember the race
is a test of stamina over 3 and a half miles on what looks like
being soft ground and extra lead in the saddlebag becomes a
significant factor.
Stamina is so important a factor at Haydock on soft ground it
shouldn't come as a surprise that proven reserves of it coming into
the race is another characteristic shared by recent winners. 8 out
of 9 had scored their best Racing Post ratings prior to the race in
a Chase Handicap over 3 miles or further.
It's early days to be talking about the Grand National but it pays
to be aware that this race is used as a trail for the race. Look
through the records of previous Grand National winners and you'll
find plenty who won here and went on to win at Aintree - but none
who ever won both in the same year. If the winner of this race on
Saturday is also down to run in the National then there will
inevitably be some media talk about the horse going on to win the
Aintree showpiece in April. It will pay to counterbalance that
hullaballoo with the long term stats.
Splitting fields at Wincanton and Ascot...
The Grade 2 Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton (run on Saturday at 3.50)
has produced 2 winners of the Champion Hurdle in the last 10 years
and there's no shortage of interest this year with Punjabi,
Celestial Halo and Starluck all slated to run.
The age group with most success in recent years is definitely the 6-
year-olds with 6 winners from the last 31 runners. Older horses (8-
years-old and up) have produced just one winner from the last 28
runners. The market has been a good guide in recent years. A big
surprise is unlikely. The last 32 runners going off at 20/1 or
bigger failed to trouble the scorer.
Recent trends in the Reynoldstown Novices' Chase (run at Ascot on
Saturday at 2.15) indicate another market that can be trusted as a
guide. Going back over 15 years of renewals it's clear that the
market generally gets this race right. It's not a great earner for
the bookies - let's put it that way. 13 of the last 15 winners of
this race were either favourite or 2nd in the market. Over the years
the money has been on the right horses.
If more clues were needed then last time out form trends offer
another percentage play - 9 out of the last 10 winners of this race
had won last time out. And 8 out of the last ten winners had
previously run in only 4 chases or less. 6- and 7-year-olds have the
best record in the race - producing 9 of the last 10 winners of the
race from 33 runners.
The Reynoldstown Novices' Chase is considered a trial race for the
RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in March (the premiership event
for Novice chasers over the extended 3 miles) and in the last two
decades 6 winners have gone from Ascot to Cheltenham as race-day
favourites for the RSA Chase. Only one horse in that time as
actually justified the faith and won both races - Alberta's Run
which run won the RSA Chase in 2008. Just something else to be aware
of when the post-race talking starts on Saturday afternoon.
Until next time, be lucky.
24th February 2010
Good afternoon, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus...
- 4 powerful pointers in the Racing Post Chase...
- Using trends to best effect...
- Something special to keep an eye out for...
Where my primary focus lies...
As a racing enthusiast my main interest lies in the big races - the
big competitive handicaps and the Championship events. I get
criticism for this preference in some quarters. There's a school of
thought out there that I should be concentrating instead on the
lower grade racing - a belief based on the idea that it's easier to
pick winners and make money in races where the horses are
unreliable, inconsistent and/or mediocre.
I'm not sure how true that belief is. I suspect it isn't but I'm not
sure how to measure the proposition. But the fact is that I'm not
that interested in the lower grade racing - certainly not to the
degree that I want to be watching it day in and day out and spending
hours analyzing it, thinking about it and writing about it. I want
to be focused on the events and fixtures where the best horses are
racing against one other for the biggest prizes and the honours that
matter.
The big races come fast and furious at this time of year - with
plenty of horses prepping for their appointments at the Cheltenham
and Aintree festivals in March and April. On Saturday we get the
Racing Post Chase - a Class 1 Grade 3 handicap run over 3 miles at
Kempton.
When looking at big races like this my first step is to split the
field. What I'm looking to do is to reduce the runners to a group of
horses which most closely fit the profile of those horses which have
gotten competitive in the race in recent years. There are numerous
different ways of achieving this end - there's no hard and fast rule
that applies to every race and selecting which method I use at which
time is more about subjective interpretation than it is about being
in possession of some kind of 'magic' formula.
Where the Racing Post Chase is concerned there are 4 powerful
pointers - illustrated by the results in recent renewals - which we
can use to get into Saturday's field and identify those runners
likely to be involved at the business end of the race.
4 powerful pointers in the Racing Post Chase...
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One thing is clear when looking back at recent renewals of
this race - course form matters. Of the last 10 winners of this race
staged at Kempton Park (the 2006 renewal was switched to Sandown) 7
had already registered a win at the course. At this stage there are
still 16 runners entered in the race and 7 of them have won
previously at Kempton - Bible Lord (in 2007), Fistral Beach (in
2010), Le Burf (in 2009), Madison Du Berlais ( in 2009 - beating
Denman in the process), Nacarat (in 2009), Oedipe (in 2006) and
Ollie Magern (back in 2004).
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Weight trends are instructive. Only one horse has carried less
than 11 stone to victory since Super Tactics won off 10-10 in 1998 -
and that was Gunther McBride in 2002 off 10-3. The horses higher up
in the handicap have dominated this event over the last decade. We
won't know exactly how the weights are framed until the overnight
declarations are published on Friday - but right now only 3 horses
are slated to carry 11 stone or more. These are Madison Du Berlais -
a horse which has won and finished 2nd in his two runs at Kempton,
Nacarat (last year's winner of this event) and Possol which finished
2nd in this last year beaten by 9 lengths.
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Age is also something to consider. Of the last 16 winners of
the event 10 were aged 8 or under. 8 of the last 10 winners were 9
or under. Add to this the fact that 7 of the last 10 winners had
raced over fences no more than 13 times and the percentage call is
to avoid the older exposed types and focus attention on younger
horses with a great future in front of them rather than behind them.
Horses who fare badly on this angle are Ollie Magern, Trabolgan,
Private Be, Madison Du Berlais and Bible Lord.
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A last time out win is no bad thing for a horse to bring into
this race. 9 of the last 10 winners had won last time out. This
year's qualifiers are Possol, Piraya and Fistral Beach. I try not to
treat any stat or trend as a hard and fast fact - I'm always willing
to add a little leeway into the equation. The point here is that
good recent form is key and I'd make a note that a further 4 horses
in the race, whilst not winning last time out, finished 2nd or 3rd
beaten by less than 3 lengths - Miss Mitch, Private Be, Kilcrea
Castle and Le Burf.
Using trends to best effect...
Of course, these angles produce conflicting views of the race. But
then trends alone seldom point to just one horse in any event. The
value of trends lies not in mechanically producing winners but in
focusing the punter's thinking on the attributes and characteristics
horses have required in the past to do well in a specific race.
Trends should not be used in isolation but as a broad brush
supplement to the individual runner's overall profile.
For example, large sections of the betting media are making negative
noises about the chances of Madison Du Berlais on Saturday because
the horse performed badly last time out. But this view fails to take
into account that Madison Du Berlais had his last run at Cheltenham
- a course to which he is patently unsuited and where he has lost on
all 8 occasions he's run there.
At Kempton the horse is a different proposition and we can perhaps
ignore the recent form trend where he's concerned - owing to his
overall individual profile. Whether or not we can do the same on the
youth/exposure trend (Madison Du Berlais has already run in 36
chases) is another matter entirely and down to your subjective view
when you come to measure, compare and contrast all the available
bits of evidence against one another.
Nothing is simple, straightforward or automatic when it comes to
solving the puzzle every horse race presents. The process is
complex, often confusing, and fraught with contradiction. Maybe
that's why we like it. I know that I for one wouldn't really want it
any other way.
Something special to keep an eye out for...
I know plenty of you already make a good portion of your betting
profits by laying horses on the betting exchanges. And judging from
my mailbag there are plenty more of you who want to start getting
your share of the profits available - but lack the experience,
expertise or proven betting angles to hit the exchanges with
confidence and/or a decent chance of coming out on top.
In my position I get to see and hear about a huge amount of products
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layers to bridge that gulf. I don't talk much about these things
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However, now and again something pretty special comes along. And I
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on your email box.
Until next time, be lucky.
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