Directory of Past issues - February 2011

1st Feb - Ferdy Murphy's Festival handicappers

8th Feb - Three reasons to oppose Sizing Europe's short price?

15th Feb - My two backing strategies for the Festival...

22nd Feb - Sprinter Sacre, one hot jockey and John Ferguson...

29th Feb - Binocular, in-form chasers and Festival field splitters...

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Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus....

• Focusing on yards with 'the knack'....
• 27% of Murphy's runners have hit the frame since 2000....
• Midnight Chase to win the Gold Cup?
  

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Focusing on yards with 'the knack'....

Over the last week or two - in this column and over on my Racing
Angles service - I've been focusing my attention on the training
yards with a decent and consistent record of sending out competitive
runners in the Festival handicap events.

What do I mean by 'decent and consistent'? For my purposes it means
yards that have managed to get 25% of their Festival handicap
runners into the frame (the first 5 places) over the period under
review - Festivals from 2000 onwards. I think yards producing that
level of performance - in what are big-field events contested by
horses of a generally similar level- have got what might be called
'the knack'.

And if a yard has that 'knack' I think it is well worth looking at
that yard's wider stats in an effort to highlight any sweet-spots -
specific areas where the strike-rate goes up markedly - within the
overall record so that we might attack those areas (or at the very
least be aware of them) at this year's Festival.

27% of Murphy's runners have hit the frame since 2000....

Ferdy Murphy, the Irish trainer based in North Yorkshire, is one
handler with the knack of producing competitive horses for the
Festival handicaps. He's saddled 52 such runners since
2000 and 27% of them have made the frame as the table below
illustrates:

I would never recommend following all of any yard's runners
blindly.... And it's no different with Murphy. What we want to do is
latch onto areas where he has particularly strong stats and avoid
those areas where the ratio of competitive performances to runners
is at its lowest.

For example, you might consider focusing exclusively on the handicap
chasers Murphy sends to the Festival. That's the division in which
he's enjoyed most success over the last decade - with 4 winners and
an additional 7 placed finishers. But overall the frequency with
which he gets that group of runners into the frame is on a par with
his overall record:

The thing to do is to focus on his younger chases - those aged 6- or
7-years-old. With handicappers of that type his frame strike rate
rises to 44%:

And when you consider that 6 of those frame horses (including both
winners) were sent off at odds ranging from 8s to 20s there's
clearly some mileage in giving consideration to Murphy's handicap
chasers. On top of that it is also worth noting that 6 of the 7
young chasers to make the frame were bred in France.

Another interesting micro-trend to note with regard to the handicap
chasers Murphy send to the Festival is that his 4 winners (and an
additional 5 placed horses) ran from the bottom half of their
respective fields:

Murphy is in the habit of getting his chasing handicappers to the
Festival running off official marks which don't result in them being
over-burdened with lead. None of the placers in this group were
rated higher than 133 by the official handicapper. It's something to
bear in mind.

One final thing to note: of the 11 placed handicap chasers Murphy
has saddled over the review period 10 had been rested - kept off the
race track - for at least a month before heading to the Festival.

Midnight Chase for the Gold Cup?

I'd imagine that connections of Long Run and Kauto Star are sleeping
easy in their beds following Midnight Chase's win in the Argento
Chase at Cheltenham on Saturday. In winning he vanquished Time For
Rupert and Diamond Harry - both of which were considered live
contenders for the Cheltenham Gold Cup at the beginning of the
season.

The Neil Mullholland trained 10-year-old was having his 8th run
around the Cheltenham track and Saturday's win was his 5th over
fences. He's only been outside the first 3 on one occasion when
racing at Cheltenham - when finishing 5th in last season's Gold Cup.
He clearly likes the course.

Straight after Saturday's win there were some people - on TV and in
the racing forums - talking about him as a possible dark horse for
his year's renewal of the Gold Cup. Stan James and bet365 sought to
capitalize - going as short as 14s (effectively nominating him as
5th favourite).

On last year's showing - and given his love of the track - a placed
effort can't be discounted. But I've got to say that - based on the
stats - I think you would be waving goodbye to the win part of any
each-way stake you placed on the horse. He just doesn't measure up
to the most significant stats in the Winning Profile of a Gold Cup
winner - as laid down by the last 11 winners of the race.

• All of the last 11 winners were 6- to 9-years old - Midnight
  Chase is 10-years-old. More than 50 horses aged 10+ have run in the
  Gold Cup and lost since 2000.

• Ten of the last 11 winners had raced between 6 and 12 times
  over fences - Midnight Chase was running in the 15th chase race of
  his career on Saturday.

• Ten of the last 11 Gold Cup winners had scored a Racing Post
  rating of 170+ over fences in the 12 months leading up to the
  Festival - Midnight Chase has not managed to hit that level at any
  stage of his chasing career to date. Saturday's win was worth 168 on
  the scale. It was a career-best effort but still falls short of the
  minimum requirement. And it should be borne in mind that it has
  taken a performance worth 175+ on the Racing Post scale to win 8 of
  the last 11 renewals of the Gold Cup.

• All the last 11 Gold Cup winners had either won or finished
  2nd in a Grade 1 Chase - Midnight Chase has run just twice at that
  level. He fell at Down Royal when already beaten in 2011 and he
  managed the 5th placed effort in last year's Gold Cup (staying on
  after a front-running performance but beaten almost 20 lengths).

• All of the last 11 Gold Cups were won by horses bred in France
  or Ireland - Midnight Chase is British-bred.

He goes well at the track - no doubt. But on the stats he is a
little too old, a little too experienced and a little short at the
very top level to win a Gold Cup. He stays well and he could place -
for sure. But even that won't be easy against multiple Grade 1
horses. It would require the race of his life. And talk of him
winning is exaggerated 'of-the-moment' stuff.

Taking the 14s with bet365 or Stan James would essentially be a bet
targeting place money - effectively 7/2 that he would make the first
3. Factor in the inevitable lost 'win' part of the each-way stake
and it looks like very poor value indeed.

Until next time, be lucky.

Good morning, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus....

• Sizing Europe puts down a Champion Chase marker....
• The Champion Chase market....
• If you're thinking of taking the price....
• I'll see where else the Winning Profile points....

Sizing Europe puts down a Champion Chase marker....

On Sunday afternoon at Punchestown Sizing Europe beat Big Zeb by 15
lengths in the 3-runner renewal of the Tied Cottage Chase.

These two Irish horses - the former trained by Henry De Bromhead and the
latter by Colm Murphy - have been involved in a series of tussles over
the last 12 months....

• They met in last year's Tied Cottage Chase where Big Zeb finished
  2nd - half a length behind winner Golden Silver but 7 lengths in advance
  of Sizing Europe.

• Then they met in the Champion Chase at the 2011 Festival. Big Zeb
  had won the race the year before. Sizing Europe had won the previous
  year's Arkle. Big Zeb was sent off at 3s - whilst Sizing Europe was a
  relatively unfancied 10s - but it was the Bromhead horse that prevailed
  on the day beating Big Zeb into 2nd by 5 lengths.

• Both horses then went to Punchestown in May to contest the Irish
  version of the Champion Chase. This time it was Big Zeb who came out on top - beating Sizing Europe into 2nd place by just under a length.

Sizing Europe's 15 length success on Sunday - at a track where Big Zeb
had finished in front of him twice previously - represents the biggest
margin win one horse has managed over the other and - just 6 weeks ahead
of the Festival - Sizing Europe heads for the Queen Mother Champion
Chase looking to have a much bigger chance of retaining his crown than
Big Zeb has of regaining it from him.

The Champion Chase market....

Following Sunday's win Sizing Europe is now as short as Evens with
Totesport to win the 2012 renewal of the Champion Chase - and no bigger
than 5/4 anywhere in the market. His ante-post price reflects the
market's view that he has a 50% chance of winning the race.

You can see how that view has been formed. Sizing Europe has already won
an Arkle and he's the reigning Champion Chase winner. In his career to
date he's won 5 Grade 1 chases and 3 Grade 2 contests. Having raced 15
times in total over fences he still possesses a 60% winning strike rate.
In short he's a racehorse of proven top-quality and he heads to the
Festival in a rich vein of form, having won 3 of his 4 races this term,
and having produced an upward curve of ratings race-on-race.

On Sunday he handed out nothing short of a thrashing to the ante-post
3rd favourite and, when you consider that two of the other 4 horses in
the top 6 of the Champion Chase ante-post betting are the inexperienced
novices Al Ferof and Peddlers Cross, the obvious conclusion to draw is
that Sizing Europe is in with an excellent chance of winning again if
he gets to the Festival in anything like the shape he's been in lately.

If you're thinking of taking the price....

I don't back short-priced horses generally. I prefer to take short-
priced horses on.

And I certainly don't like to back short-price horses at the Festival
where races are seldom as one-sided as the ante-post and day-of-race
markets might lead you to believe.

Festival races are competitive events full stop. Rarely do you find
races that turn into out-and-out processions. And Festival history is
littered with horses that failed to justify prices that made them look
like certs beforehand. Remember Time For Rupert and Cue Card last year?

Personally, I prefer to look for a horse the market is possibly
underestimating than to put my faith in one dominating to the degree its
short price suggests it will.

But it doesn't pay to generalize either. Each situation has to be judged
on its own merits and Sizing Europe does tick an awful lot of boxes on
the statistical profile of a Champion Chase winner. For example,

• He's got a strike rate in excess of 40%
• He's got the right kind of ratings in the last 12 months
• He's obviously got Cheltenham and Festival experience
• He's got a track record of performing at the top level
• He's got exactly the right kind of form figures this term

But there are key areas - based on the historic statistical record -
where he falls down too. And you need to consider those profile failings
carefully if you're thinking about backing Sizing Europe at his current
short price.

• First off, 10 of the last 11 Champion Chase winners were aged 6-
  to 9-years-old. Sizing Europe is now 10-years-old. Maybe he's good
  enough to do what Moscow Flyer did and win beyond the age of 9 - and the signs are that he's in the kind of form to do it. But the stats suggest
  the percentage play is to seek out a younger contender.

• Eight of the last 9 Champion Chase winners had raced just 13 times
  or fewer over fences. If Sizing Europe is to win come March then he will
  have to overcome that statistic. He's raced 15 times over fences now. He
  has more miles on the clock than the stats suggest is ideal.

• The last 7 winners of the Champion Chase had raced just 3 times or
  fewer in the season leading up to the Festival. Sizing Europe has raced
  4 times this term to date. I can't imagine he'll race again prior to the
  Festival. But, even so, on the evidence of recent Champion Chase
  winners, his edge might just be a little blunter come March than you'd
  like it to be at Even money.

Sizing Europe's recent performances and his price in the ante-post
market tell you that he's the horse to beat in this year's renewal of
the Champion Chase. The Winning Profile tells you that if he's going to
get turned over at his short price then the underlying causes
will lie in his age, in his having a few too many miles on the clock and
maybe one race too many in his pre-Festival preparation.

I'll see where else the Winning Profile points....

For me those potential flaws in his statistical make-up - when combined
with his short price - offer more than sufficient encouragement to look
away from Sizing Europe. Closer to race day I'll be looking to identify
a horse to beat him with or one to back each-way - Sizing Europe's short
quote takes out such a big percentage of the overround that lively each-
way prospects are likely to trade at juicy prices.

I haven't selected any bets just yet. It's a bit too early for me to get
involved - the final running plans of many horses are yet to be
confirmed. But when I do make my selections they will be based on what
I find when I apply my Winning Profile to the confirmed runners - I'll
be looking for horses that measure up well to the race-winning criterion
laid down by the historic statistical record.

I recently put the finishing touches to Winning Profiles for 19 big non-
handicap races set to be run at this year's Cheltenham and Aintree
Festivals and I'm pretty excited about putting them to work....

.... This is the first year I've been able to analyse and profile the
big races using 12-years-worth of data. I'll be heading to Cheltenham
and then on to Aintree with stronger, more accurate and more effective
field-splitting profiles than I've ever had at my disposal before.

A Winning Profile helps me quickly make sense of any specific race -
without the headache of too much formbook study. The stats swiftly and
effectively reduce the competitive Festival fields to a shortlist of
just a few runners with the right statistical credentials to put in a
big run.

Whilst the rest of the market is trying to make sense of a 20-runner-
field I'm focused on the 3 or 4 participants the stats indicate have the
best chances of winning.... and the Champion Chase is just one of the
big races I'll be targeting.

If you think you could benefit from the same approach the Festival
Winning Profile manual will be available very shortly. There will be
more details to follow.

For now consider signing up to the Priority Waiting List. Signing up is
free and ensures you're first in line to get the comprehensive lowdown
on how the Profiles can help you, what they contain and how the 2-step
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Until next time, be lucky.

Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus....

• Why I'm looking forward to Riverside Theatre....
• The perils of ante-post punting....
• Two backing strategies for the Festival....
• How I make my Festival selections....

Why I'm looking forward to Riverside Theatre....

If there's one horse I've been looking forward to seeing this season
its Nicky Henderson's 8-year-old chaser, Riverside Theatre.

It's a year since we last saw him on a race track - winning the
Grade 1 Ascot Chase at the Berkshire track. And he's entered to
defend the race on Saturday.

What highlighted last year's Ascot Chase win for me was the margin
he won by - beating the field by 10 lengths.

At first sight there's perhaps nothing particularly significant
about that performance. Plenty of horses win Grade 1 races by that
kind of distance. In total 36 of the 148 Grade 1 races to be run
since the beginning of 2000 in Great Britain have produced winning
performances of 10 lengths or more.

But a large proportion of those 10 length+ winning efforts were
secured by horses racing in Grade 1 events for novices. And in open
Grade 1 company most of the wins of 10 lengths or more were produced
by horses with at least 8 chase races behind them.

In last season's Ascot Chase - which is not a race confined to
novice runners - Riverside Theatre was having just his 7th run over
fences. And that is what is so significant about his performance
that day. Not many horses win an open Grade 1 by 10 lengths with so
little chasing experience behind them - and those that do invariably
turn out to be pretty smart.

Kauto Star won the Betfair Chase in 2006 having raced just 6 times
over fences - and he turned out to be a reasonably decent chaser. So
too Master Minded who won the 2008 Champion Chase off just 6 runs
and the 2008 Tingle Creek off just 8. Long Run won the 2010 King
George (run in January 2011) having raced just 7 times over fences.
Just a few weeks later he was winning the Gold Cup.

That's an illustrious group and Riverside Theatre is the only other
horse to qualify for membership since 2000 - barring Tiutchev who
won the Ascot Chase by a big margin in 2000 having raced just 6
times but who never kicked on from that early-career promise (though
he did win another Grade 1).

Riverside Theatre is coming back from injury - having suffered a
stress fracture to his pelvis whilst being trained for last year's
Ryanair Chase. It remains to be seen if he can hit the same heights
and represent the same force at the top level - so Saturday's race
is a watching brief. But he's still young enough, he's lightly raced
and if he's fully recovered from his problems then he'd be one I'd
hope for big things from over the next 12 months.

The perils of ante-post punting....

Shortly after Christmas there was quite a buzz about Tony Martin's
Bog Warrior for the RSA Chase at the Festival. He was as short as 6s
with Ladbrokes after posting eye-catching victories in novice chases
at Navan (where he won by 7 lengths) and in a Grade 1 field at
Punchestown where he smashed his 5 opponents by more than 30
lengths.

But if you took that price thinking you were getting some value
about an Irish hotpot sure to be shorter come the day of the RSA
then you'll be licking your wounds right now....

Bog Warrior posted another win at Naas on Saturday - foot perfect
all the way round and making all in what was a pretty bloodless
victory. But this morning - just a few weeks on from when he was 6s
- he's now available at 16s for the RSA.

Why? Because he won't be going to the Festival if Tony Martin has
anything to do with it. Martin doesn't want to risk the horse on
spring ground: 'He's a horse I wouldn't want to run with good in the
ground... Hopefully next year you'd hope he'd be a Lexus and
Hennessy horse at Leopardstown on soft ground. He's a winter horse
and he handles soft ground well.'

There are a hundred and one reasons why ante-post betting can go
wrong... and backing young, inexperienced horses before their needs
and targets become evident is just one of them.

When you're taking an early-season price about a lightly raced
novice chaser at the Festival you are likely to be doing so in
advance of the horse advertising its preferred conditions and
circumstances. And there's no guarantee that connections will put
you right about what they know - or what they're actually targeting
over the long term - until your money is down and it's too late.

The only winners in situations like these are the bookmakers. Engage
in long-term ante-post betting at your peril.

Two backing strategies for Cheltenham....

The Festival races are highly competitive events. Not surprising
given that most of the best jumps horses in training are in
attendance. On top of that - everything is trying. No horse is being
given a blow in preparation for some distant target.
Nothing is being left to work on back at the training gallops. No
race is being treated solely as a learning exercise or as an
opportunity for an 'easy'.

And many of the Festival events are big-field affairs - each
containing multiple participants with genuine strong claims of
winning. You'll go a long way to find a group of such hotly
contested races.

Little wonder that the Festival (enjoyable and irreplaceable as it
is) can be a bit of a betting graveyard - even for the well-informed
punter who spends most of the winter months preparing for the 4-day
extravaganza. Just as a horse can run the race of its life at the
Festival and still not win the backer can make the most
inspired selections of his punting career and get nothing more than
a hell of a run for his money.

At the Festival - given the competitive nature of the racing - I
rarely support just a single horse in a race (particularly not in
the big-field events). Instead, I look to back multiple horses with
the intention of twisting a profit on the race. And I use one of
two strategies to meet that objective:

1. Backing around the board -

This approach involves backing multiple selections to level stakes.
In the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, for example, I might back:

Horse A (win only) at 8/1 to £25
Horse B (win only) at 11/1 to £25
Horse C (win only) at 25/1 to £25

It's a £75 stake in total - the level of any profit I generate
wholly dependent on whichever selection does the business for me. I
might also mix it up a little (backing Horse C at 25/1 each-way, for
example) - but the point is I'd be backing each horse at level
stakes and leaving the level of profit I generate to the fates.

If Horse A wins I scoop a £150 profit. If Horse B finishes in front
the profit amounts to £225. And if the longshot, Horse C, produces
the goods then I'm looking at a profit of £575.00

2. Dutching multiple selections -

This method is also based on backing multiple selections but the
difference is that you weight your stakes to ensure a specific level
of profit whichever one of your selections wins the race (assuming
one does, of course).

Sticking with the same race, the same selections and the same total
stake as in the example above my bets and staking would now look as
follows:

Horse A (win only) at 8/1 to £35.78
Horse B (win only) at 11/1 to £26.83
Horse C (win only) at 25/1 to £12.39

The advantage of backing the selections in this manner is that I
generate the same returns and the same profits - whichever horse
happens to do the business. Whichever horse wins I get £322.02 back
of which £247.02 is profit.

And if you think I did those calculations in my head then think
again. I used a 'Dutching Calculator'. You'll find a decent one you
can use free right here.

How I make my Festival selections....

For this part of the process I turn to my Winning Profiles....
selecting horses that best-fit the statistical blueprint laid down
by previous winners of any specific race.

Of course, you'll have your own methods of identifying horses you
want to back....

But if you think it would be useful to find out exactly what
previous winners of a big race looked like (from a statistical point
of view) - so that you can quickly and effectively pinpoint runners
in this year's field that possess the same Winning Profile - then
consider securing access to my Festival Winning Profiles manual and
the service I'll be producing during Festival week....

We're not quite ready to release the manual - but you can ensure
you're the first to hear about it when we do by signing up to our
Priority Waiting List...

Signing up today ensures you are allocated a place if and when you
decide to join us after you've seen more comprehensive details of
the service and how it will work. You can make sure you get that
information right here.

Until next time, be lucky.

Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus....

• Racing's big story in numbers....
• Taking the racing temperature....
• The 60-second angle finder - John Ferguson....

Racing's big story in numbers....

Sprinter Sacre made it 3 from 3 over fences at Newbury last
Friday.... hitting another 'top' Racing Post rating of 172 in the
process.

He's as short as Evens now for the Arkle. If support continues he'll
represent one of a quartet of odds-on chances at this year's
Festival - along with Hurricane Fly, Quevega and Big Buck's.

Nicky Henderson's gelding is being talked up as the best 2-mile
chaser since Moscow Flyer. The stats in my Winning Profile for the
Arkle suggest he'll take some beating....

• The Newbury rating of 172 is sufficient to have won the last
  11 Arkles...

• At 6-years-old he is the right age....

• With 3 chases behind him he's got the necessary experience
  over fences....

• A 100% winning strike rate and sky-high ratings suggest he is
  rock-solid proof as opposed to potential.

Are there reasons for backers to be fearful?

Maybe so.

Unlike Moscow Flyer and the 2010 winner, Sizing Europe, Nicky
Henderson's Sprinter Sacre doesn't have a Grade 1 chase win on his
CV.

Al Ferof - who beat him up the hill in last year's Supreme - has won
a Grade 1 chase. He's as big as 11/2 with Coral.

The big Festival races are seldom as clear-cut as the market
suggests.

Taking the racing temperature....

Focusing on what's hot and what's not in the race-betting world this
week....

• Dennis O'Regan is a hot jockey right now - winning 2 big races
  in the last fortnight on Stormy Weather and Giles Cross. On Monday
  he piloted Beamazed to a 16/1 success at Carlisle. Worth noting:
  partnership with Victor Dartnell has yielded 9 winners from 38
  runners this term - and profits of £260.80 to £20 stakes. Sweet
  spot: His non-handicap chase rides have gone in at 36.8% this season
  - just 7 of 19 not making the frame.

• The Nicky Henderson yard is on the boil heading toward the
  Festival - the last 7 days have seen winners go in at 36.4% with 60%
  making the frame. The yard's chasers are in particularly rude health
  - going in at a rate of 50%. Punters have not had to get creative to
  make money. Just backing the yard's jollies over the last week
  has produced 12 winners from 15 bets and a £258.40 profit to £20
  level stakes.

• The Paul Nicholls yard has entered a cold patch of form -
  after posting winning strike rates of 20%+ in October, November,
  December the yard's runners are under a cloud. February has produced
  just a single winner from 32 runners. Horses in the yard are
  reported to be coughing. Nicholls says his Festival big guns are not
  affected. But like a winter cold in an unventilated office surely it
  can only be a matter of time?

• The card at Southwell on Tuesday left me cold - 7 races and
  just 33 horses contesting them at an average of 4.7 runners per
  race. Even dog racing has more going for it. I don't want to see
  racecourses going out of business but surely scratching poorer
  meetings like Tuesday's would succeed in raising the quality of
  those meetings that remained - increasing entries and producing an
  overall uplift of interest from punters and spectators?

The 60-second angle finder - John Ferguson....

John Ferguson joined the jumps-training ranks in September - and
he's hit the ground running. His first 54 runners have produced 21
winners - but it's taking the market some time to latch on to his
obvious ability. Backing all his runners to £20 level stakes shows a
profit £897.00. Consider this a heads-up.

How to play the yard's runners for profit....

• Ferguson has a background in flat racing (on the breeding
  side) and he's recruited some decent young types from that code. His
  non-handicap hurdlers show 12 wins from 32 runs. Bet to £20 level
  stakes they've produced profits of £452.60. They are worth
  examination when entered.

• So too the yard's bumper horses - 13 runners so far this term
  have produced 6 wins and 18.7 points of profit.

• Jack Quinlan is the man you want in the saddle - he's winning
  on the rides Ferguson provides just under 40% of the time. Backed to
  £20 level stakes the profits amount to £704.40.

No doubt more Ferguson-based profit angles will reveal themselves as
time goes on. We'll be watching.

I'll be back next week.

Until next time, be lucky.

Good afternoon, friends,

In today’s Horse Racing Focus….

• Racing’s big story in numbers…
• Taking the racing temperature…
• The 60-second angle finder…

Racing’s big story in numbers….

Is Binocular a strong candidate to regain the Champion Hurdle crown he captured in 2010?

Trainer Nicky Henderson offered supporters encouragement yesterday: ‘He just looks really well – he looks like a good racehorse…. he seems to come in here probably as well as when he won the Champion Hurdle.’

Binocular’s win in the Kingwell Hurdle was solid enough – ensuring he hit the 162+ Racing Post rating that 9 of the last 11 Champion Hurdle winners achieved in the year leading to the Festival – though his performance fell short of what Hurricane Fly achieved at Leopardstown in January.

For the definitive view of Binocular’s Champion Hurdle prospects we turn to the Winning Profile – a statistical analysis of previous winners – to see how he measures up against the key race-winning criterion….

And he doesn’t measure up too badly….

• At 8-years-old he isn’t too old – ten of the last 11 winners were aged between 5- and 8-years-old.

• His strike rate over hurdles underpins his credibility – 9 of the last 11 winners went into the race with a strike rate over hurdles of 35%+. Binocular is operating at 54.9%.

• He’s had the right preparation – 10 of the last 11 winners raced 3 or 4 times over hurdles during the current season. Binocular has raced 3 times this term.

• Nor has he been outside the first 2 in either of his last two completed starts – a stat that all 11 previous winners conformed to.

Binocular ticks multiple boxes on the Winning Profile – and justifies his market position. But one potential flaw in his make-up is the fact that he’s had 19 hurdle races.

That’s okay on the face of it. Rooster Booster won the Champion Hurdle off 25 races in 2003 and Brave Inca off 20 in 2006. But over the last 5 years the trend has been towards more lightly raced horses. None of the last 5 winners had raced more than a dozen times over hurdles.

If I were thinking of backing Binocular on March 13th it is his over-experience that would worry me most.

Taking the racing temperature….

What’s hot and what’s not in the racing world this week….

• Tom George and his chasers are in red hot form – the last 15 to run have produced 5 winners and 12 of them made the first 3. Backing the yard’s chasers to win over the last fortnight to a £20 level stake shows a profit of £342.00. Overall the yard is running at a strike-rate of 30% with Paddy Brennan getting the best of it in the saddle. His last 19 rides for George have produced 6 winners.

• The Winning Profile is on the boil – just in time for Cheltenham. On Saturday my Winter Handicaps service pinpointed Tom George’s Nacarat at 9/2 in the Racing Plus Chase – securing a nice profit for the service’s followers. My upcoming Spring Festival service provides Winning Profiles for 19 of the biggest races at Cheltenham and Aintree. It’s not too late to get onboard. Get your name on the Waiting List right here.

• It isn’t often I praise up a bookie but bet365 deserve warm applause – going non-runner-no-bet on ALL Cheltenham Festival races more than 2 weeks before the opening day. That means you can place your ante-post bets with bet365 knowing that you’ll get your money back if your selection doesn’t actually run. No other bookmaker is offering such generous terms so early in the game.

• Without the non-runner-no-bet concession ante-post Festival betting can leave you cold – just ask the punters who backed Fingal Bay at prices a short as 7/2 for the NIM Hurdle over the winter. The vouchers they hold are worthless now that Philip Hobbs has admitted he won’t manage to get the 6-year-old to the Festival after he suffered a setback last week. Ante-post betting does offer the opportunity to get on a ‘live’ one at big prices. But the trouble is it too often just represents easy money for the layers.

The 60-second angle finder….

This week…. the focus is on splitting the Festival handicap fields….

The handicap events are some of the trickiest contests racing punters will be confronted with during Festival week – comprising big-fields of evenly matched contenders which make for competitive races and complex betting puzzles.

So how best to tackle them?

The stats suggest two strong approaches for splitting the Festival handicap fields into a shortlist of ‘live’ contenders:

1. Focus your attention on Irish- and French- bred horses – that’s the percentage play. Between them the two breeds account for 80 (79.2%) of the 101 handicap winners since 2000.

2. Make a dozen races worth of experience your cut-off point – exposed horses of veteran status can and do win the big Festival handicaps but such wins are the exception rather than the rule. The stats tell us it is far better to look amongst the more lightly-raced candidates.

• 43 (or 74%) of the 58 handicap chase winners at the Festival over the last 11 years had raced just 12 times or fewer over fences....

• 32 (or 74%) of the 43 handicap hurdle winners at the Festival over the last 11 years had raced just 12 times or fewer over the smaller flights....

Shun the old and familiar runners in Festival handicaps.... and look to support more-lightly raced horses instead... the stats say they win more often.

Until next time, be lucky.