|
30th January 2009
Good afternoon, friends,
- I am not a fav backer....
- Do not despair about the Star....
- He's a different horse on spring ground....
Where the fav backer gets it right and wrong....
Where the Championship races at the Cheltenham Festival are concerned, you can ask just about any crackerjack with a pulse to name the winners and you're going to have the same names fired at you repeatedly like shells from a bazooka. You're going to hear a lot about Binocular for the Champion Hurdle, Master Minded for the Champion Chase, Punchestowns for the World Hurdle and Denman for the Gold Cup.
Anybody can make those picks and stand a good chance of being right more times than they're wrong. And I do mean anybody. Taking a ten second look at the markets tells us these horses have significant chances of taking the spoils come March. It don't take no genius, folks.
Binocular is currently 6/4 for the Champion Hurdle. His nearest rival in the market can be backed at 12/1. Master Minded is 2/5 for the Champion Chase. His nearest rival is 11/1. Punchestowns shares favoritism with Kasbah Bliss for the World Hurdle. You can back both at 11/4. Denman is 7/4 to retain the Gold Cup with Kauto Star second in the market and currently available at 11/4.
You get my point. Any punter can regurgitate what the market is telling him. Any clown can look at a list and rattle off a couple of names at the head of it. And, to be fair, that clown is going to hit the mark - probably more times than he misses. But, on the downside, he's always going to be playing at short prices. And he's going to struggle to make the game pay - the traditional ailment of the committed fav backer.
My role here at HRF, as I see it, is to help you identify what the market doesn't tell us - to pinpoint instances where the market might have it wrong and to explain why. My role is to help you pick and hit the mark with 'live' horses at the right kind of prices - frequently enough to produce a profit over the long term. And, in that spirit, here's the first installment of my current take on the Gold Cup....
Don't despair just yet about the Star....
The market tells us that if Denman and Kauto Star turn up on 13th March then each will take some beating. But there are good reasons to focus on that 'if'.
Despite winning another King George at Christmas, doubts persist about whether or not Kauto Star still has the heart, the lungs and the legs to get up the Cheltenham Hill under pressure. As for Denman, he hasn't been sighted on a race track since his Gold Cup win last March and, in the meantime, has suffered heart problems.
Regulars will be aware that I've had some cash down on Star De Mohaison for the Gold Cup. So, on the face of it, Star's performance in the G2 Letheby & Christopher Chase at Cheltenham on Saturday was disappointing. The tank emptied up the hill and he finished the race at no more than walking pace - a well beaten 4th to Joe Lively. However, for a large part of the race, Star ran with real menace and was still threatening to win when Joe Lively blundered two fences out - before the tank emptied.
In his column in the Racing Post on Saturday morning, trainer Paul Nicholls said he had Star as fit as possible. He also said that he'd only be worried if the Ground turned heavy. Judging by the number of pulled up runners at Cheltenham on Saturday - and the strung out way in which runners finished in all the races - conditions did indeed go against Star.
Given the conditions, it might be fair to wonder why connections didn't pull the horse out of the race. Maybe he wanted to get another race into the horse. Remember, owing to injury, Star had only raced twice since January last year. Now he has a few weeks to recover from Saturday's exertions and, assuming the horse comes out of the race okay and Nicholls can retune him, I still strongly believe he can figure in the Gold Cup.
Was it really the ground that beat the horse?....
We know Star De Mohaison can handle the Cheltenham course. Running over 3 miles+ over hurdles or fences at the track, Star has pretty decent figures. Take a look at his record below.
Even given Saturday's effort, Star has beaten almost 88% of the horses put in front of him on the Prestbury Park track. Given that statistic it's hard to make a case for him somehow lacking in the stamina required to get up the hill.
So have Star's injury in 2008 and the subsequent lay off left him a lesser horse? Has the shine dulled? Is Star De Mohaison a busted flush? I don't think so. The trainer wrote on Saturday that the horse was back to his best. And I don't think the stable would have run him in testing conditions if he was still showing the effects of his injury.
So was he outclassed? It's an argument that's been presented in some quarters but I don't buy it. One reason is that he was beaten home by Halcon Generlardais - a good horse but one falling below Championship class. Halcon has had 5 goes at Cheltenham and has never won. One thing he does appreciate, however, is soft ground. From 10 runs on ground soft or worse Halcon Generlardais has won 4, placed 2nd four times and placed 3rd twice - winning over £175,000 in the process. Conditions on Saturday suited him down to the ground - literally.
Race winner, Joe Lively, loves Cheltenham - with 4 wins, one 2nd place and one 3rd place from his 7 goes at the track. And he also appreciated Saturday's conditions. On soft or worse ground Joe Lively has won 3 out of 4 and over £110,000 - and posted the best of his Racing Post ratings to boot.
Compare these records to Star De Mohaison's on soft or worse ground. He's had 5 goes, won 2 and finished 2nd once and 3rd once. Not bad on the face of it. But his successes have been in lower grade events where he likely outclassed his opponents. His total prize take on soft or worse ground is just over £22,000. Star just wasn't suited to Saturday's conditions.
Star is a spring horse and needs better ground....
What Star needs is better ground. Our man is a spring horse and comes into his own when the ground grows some bounce. If you need proof then take a look at his record on ground that's better than soft.
In these conditions he's had 10 runs, won 5 of them, finished 2nd once and 3rd three times - racking up prize money totaling well over £200,000 in the process.
Look too at his record in races run in either March or April - 3 starts, 2 wins and a 3rd - winning prize money totalling over £125,000.
My bet is that Star De Mohaison will be a totally different proposition back at Cheltenham in March on better ground. To my mind he remains a big threat to the big two. Following Saturday's race his price for the Gold Cup has drifted to 33/1. I've gone in again and had a bit of that each way. I'm still confident I'm going to collect.
And, whatever happens or doesn't happen at Cheltenham, I will definitely be following the horse at Aintree or if he pitches up at the Punchestown festival. One way or another I believe Star De Mohaison is going to take a major prize this spring.
Next week I'm going to analyse some other aspects of the Gold Cup - and I'm going to name the other horse I've backed because it has the right kind of profile to cause an upset. So stay tuned.
Until then, be lucky.
23rd January 2009
Good afternoon, friends,
- Your Cheltenham boot camp starts here...
- A simple lesson from past festivals...
- * The festival produces falsies it pays to oppose...
A Cheltenham boot camp...
The Cheltenham festival is the best four-days of racing on the calendar - bar none. That's my humble opinion. £3 million in prize money is up for grabs and the very best National Hunt horses in training contest 25 races over a demanding course that tests the stamina, jumping and racing mettle of every runner to breaking point.
Every horse is tuned-up to perfect pitch for its big day. Cheltenham is where seasonal plans either come to fruition in blaze of glory or crash and burn in a metaphorical ball of flames. It's the meeting where Championships are decided and where performances matter most to connections. Every single runner and rider is guaranteed to be performing at their absolute maximum. It's full on. Nobody is holding back - including the punters. Betting markets are as strong, liquid and competitive as they get.
Granted, the Festival is still a few weeks away - March 10th to 13th - and running plans are still being formulated. Horses are still being primed. The ante-post markets are still in the process of maturing. But it's never too early to start thinking about the strategies and angles that will make the four-day jamboree pay.
Over the next few issues I'm going to be doing just that - taking a look at specific races, horses, trainers, jockeys and markets in a bid to position myself (and you) for when the big week spins round. Think of it as a bit of a Cheltenham boot camp - the hard-yards of preparation that will stand us in good stead when the action starts.
I'm going to start with a simple lesson we can take from the Cheltenham festivals of 2006, 2007 and 2008....
What the last 3 festivals tell us....
It happens every year. Certain horses capture the public's or the media's imagination.
It may be the result of an eye-catching early season performance or a bullish trainer making overconfident pronouncements. It might be because some forked-tongued bookmaker's rep is talking the horse up and exaggerating ante-post support for the animal. Or it may just be because the media needs content and focuses on horses with newsworthy angles.
Whatever the reason, prominence in the public mind almost certainly guarantees that the market will overreact and overbet the animals in question. The price about many such horses will contract to the point where the short price grossly overestimates their actual chance of winning the races they are contesting.
This is definitely the case with festival runners where shorter-priced runners have an appalling record in recent years of not living up to the hype.
Take the 2006 festival, for example...
The table below outlines the fate of 2006's festival horses returned at SPs of 4/1 or under.
22 horses went off at 4/1 or less. Just 6 won at a strike rate of 27.2%.
Or the 2007 festival ...
The table below outlines the fate of 2007's festival horses returned at SPs of 4/1 or under.
In 2007 26 festival runners went off at SPs of 4/1 or lower. Just 5 won at a strike rate of 19.2%.
Or the 2008 festival...
The table below outlines the fate of 2008's festival horses returned at SPs of 4/1 or under.
In 2008 24 festival runners went off at SPs of 4/1 or lower. Just 6 won at a strike rate of 25%.
A short-price is not synonymous with certainty...
The Cheltenham festival is proof in action that the biggest race meetings are a fertile source of short-priced horses it pays to oppose. The big races are generally more competitive than the market would suggest - providing fertile ground for identifying value price winners or hype horses to lay on the exchanges.
Whilst opposing over-valued horses can pay handsome dividends, backing over-priced, over-valued horses ensures there's only one winner - the bookmaker. Over the last three years punters with festival portfolios containing too many short-priced animals took one hell of a good kicking.
For now, keep in mind that short-prices are no indication of winners at the pinnacle of racing. Top-class fields consist of multiple animals who can win - often at prices which underestimate their true chances. Your festival betting strategy should incorporate this fact.
More next week.
Until then, be lucky.
16th January 2009
Good afternoon, friends,
- Make sure you lap up those sweeteners...
- Don't forget the Nanny Goat...
- Get deals on tickets to the racing...
Prepare for some early Festival spadework...
In just a few weeks the Cheltenham Festival will be upon us. And it's never too soon to start preparing and putting in some preliminary groundwork. When it comes to cracking the competitive Festival events, it definitely pays to get a head-start on the opposition.
Those of you who were with us for the Festival last year will know I tend to limit my focus to the Championship races and the handicaps. In upcoming issues I'll be concentrating on some of these races, the runners and the ante post markets - at least where they exist.
But, before we get to that, I want to conclude what's unintentionally become a short series of issues on getting the most from your bets with a few final observations.
Let the bookie ply you with sweeteners...
In recent weeks I've highlighted how disloyalty pays when it comes to your dealings with bookmakers. Opening and holding multiple betting accounts is in your interests - it means you can access and make the most of the best deals and concessions available across the board.
One thing I didn't mention - and should have - is that when you open accounts with bookmakers you should be sure to sign up to receive emails and/or postal communication from them. If you already have accounts with certain bookmakers and you haven't agreed to let them contact you periodically then go back, log in and change your preferences.
It's a tough marketplace out there for the bookmaker. There's no shortage of competition for the punter's business and every bookmaker has to fight tooth and claw for market share if he's going to survive. That means coming up with a steady stream of offers and concessions to attract your patronage and then to retain it - free bets, cash backs, enhanced odds, loyalty bonuses and other concessions.
Tough for him but great for us. You've just got to make sure you're in line for your share of the bounty. You need to give the bookmaker a route to your heart. You need to encourage the delusion that he can make a loyal client out of you. You need to provide an email address where he can send you his tokens of desire for your business - and then take, take, take what's on offer whenever you can make use of it.
The downside is you'll need to keep on top of your inbox (I'd suggest using a hotmail address or something similar. This way your primary email address will avoid the inevitable bombardment). And you'll need to have a strong stomach to wade through some of the absolute guff some of the bookies will send you.
But the upside is significant. When you have multiple accounts you'll find the sweeteners you receive can add up to hundreds of pounds over a year - making a big difference to your bottom line. So don't be shy about getting your snout in the trough!!
Keep the Nanny Goat in mind...
Getting the best price is key to maximizing your bottom line over the long term. I've already written about making sure you take advantage of competition between bookmakers and exchanges. But one thing I didn't mention, and which it pays to keep in mind, is the Tote (or the Nanny Goat as it is sometimes called).
The Tote is a pool bet. Punters make their selection and pay their stake. The Tote takes out its percentage and the remainder of the pool is paid out to those punters with winning tickets.
Not always, but certainly often enough to keep it in mind, you can get a better price about your selection on the Tote than betting at SP. Regularly getting 9/1 on the Tote rather than 8/1 betting traditionally with a bookmaker, for example, can contribute healthily to profitable betting over the long term.
Unlike betting with a bookmaker, the thing with the Tote is that you don't know what price you're going to get until the race is over and the pool is divided between the winning tickets. However, as a guide, you should keep an eye on the Tote 'shows' in the minutes leading up to the off.
This is easily achieved if you're on course. Tote windows and screens are conveniently located in the bars, the restaurants and almost everywhere else. It's also easy if you're stood in a bookmaker's shop. The Tote 'shows' will appear on the screens. The problem comes when you're watching your racing on the TV. For whatever reason the broadcasters rarely display or refer to the Tote 'shows'.
This is where having your computer close to hand is useful. If you want to see the Tote 'shows' go to the Sporting Life website at www.sportinglife.com. Go to the 'Racing' page from the menu down the left hand side. When the racing is on there's link on the right hand side of the page called 'Racing Live'. Click on 'Live betting Shows'. Here you'll find Tote shows for every race - alongside the usual shows relating to ring prices.
Get deals on tickets to the racing...
The purpose of HRF is to help you get a better return on your race betting. But, where I can save you a penny or two, I will. And, if you like, going to the races you'll be interested in the BGA website at www.gojumpracing.com. It's a one-stop shop where you can purchase tickets for any fixture - often at huge discounts.
There are various different promotions active on the site:
- up to 50% discount on tickets to various Order of Merit fixtures
- up to 25% discount to various fixtures for group bookings
- up to 20% discount for advance sales to many fixtures
- 2 for 1 offers in Tattersalls enclosures to various racecourses
Check it out.
Until next time, be lucky.
9th January 2009
Good afternoon, friends,
- Always get the best the Bookies have to offer....
- The bookie with the biggest odds....
- Cherries ripe for picking....
Resolve to stick it to the bookies in 2009....
Following my article in December in which I said it pays to be disloyal where bookmakers are concerned, quite a few of you wrote to me with questions and queries. So, in the interests of clarification, I'll put some flesh on the bones.
Being loyal and giving your business to one or two bookmakers will hurt your pocket. It restricts you to the deals that those bookmakers are prepared to offer you on any given bet - and there's no guarantee that deal will be the best available.
So here's a little about some of the accounts you should have in your portfolio....and why.
Get the Best Odds Guaranteed....
These days pretty much every firm on the block offers Early Bird prices on the day's racing. Some firms price up all the day's races at 9.30 am. Others aren't so bold and only offer early markets on a selection of the day's fare.
Now there's nothing worse than taking an Early Bird price with a bookie, or on the exchanges for that matter, and then watching your horse drift in the market in the lead-up to the off. You've backed your fancy at 20/1 and now it's trading at 33/1 - that's a real sickener.
Unless, that is, you've struck your bet with one of the firms which offer punters a Best Odds Guaranteed deal. With Best Odds Guaranteed you can take an Early Bird price or a Board price and if your horse wins at a bigger price the bookmaker will pay you out at those bigger odds.
That's a nice bit of security for value hunters who like to try and get the best of the prices early on in the day. If your horse subsequently contracts in price, you've got the value. If it lengthens, then you still paid out at the bigger price should it win.
The point is that not all bookmakers offer Best Odds Guaranteed. If you only ever use three bookmakers - let's say Coral, Victor Chandler and Betfred, for example - then you're stuck because none of these bookies offer the deal.
For Early Bird punts you want accounts with firms that do - bet365, Boylesports, Paddy Power, Canbet, Bet Internet (selected races), Bet Direct (mainland UK races only) and William Hill, for example.
Talking about best odds....
SportingBet deserve special mention and it is well worth your while considering opening an account with them if you don't already hold one.
Take a look at the table below. It relates to the races at Southwell yesterday. The runners column refers to the number of participants in each race. The figure under the bookmaker columns refers to the number of horses in each race that the bookmaker was best-priced or joint best-priced on.
SportingBet offered the best price available on 50% of the runners at Southwell - comparing very favourably with Coral who were best priced on just 17% and William Hill on 21% of runners.
Race |
Runners |
Sporting |
Coral |
Hills |
1250 |
10 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
1320 |
9 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
1350 |
8 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1420 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
1450 |
5 |
3 |
0 |
1 |
1520 |
9 |
6 |
2 |
3 |
1550 |
9 |
6 |
3 |
1 |
Totals |
58 |
29 |
10 |
12 |
Granted, this is a limited sample focusing on just one race meeting on one day and just three bookies. But, if you keep an eye on this yourself in the days ahead, you'll see that this pattern is consistent and repeated day after day. SportingBet are frequently well-ahead of all their competitors in terms of offering the best prices on the largest proportion of runners.
Getting the best price you can on every selection you bet is key to betting profitably over the long term. Neglecting to open an account with the bookie that bets to a lower over round percentage than the competition - and consistently gives best price on more runners as a result - doesn't make any sense. SportingBet won't be best-priced on every selection you bet. But, their track record suggests they will be best-priced or on a fair proportion of them. When they are - you want to be positioned to take advantage.
Other deals it might pay to 'cherry pick'....
I'd never advocate betting with a specific bookmaker purely because he's offering you some incentive - any incentive - to do so. Far from it. The key thing is to use a bookie when the deal he's offering represents a cherry on the icing of a bet you already intend to make, or when it brings something extra to your betting strategy.
Here are just some of the current deals you want to be aware of... and why:
-
Do you watch your racing on C4? If so, that's a good reason to get a bet365 account. Their Channel4 4/1 offer means that if you back a winner at 4/1 or more in a C4 race you get a free bet on the next C4 race. On days when C4 aren't broadcasting the racing, the same offer runs on nominated 'Feature' races. If you already intend to bet on a race that qualifies for the offer you stand a chance of winning a free bet that isn't on offer elsewhere.
-
Fancy a specific selection to win its race? You might want to consider Totesport's betXtra service which offers enhanced prices for 'Win Only' bets. If you wanted to back Horse A each-way Totesport might offer 7/1 about the horse. But if you bet it to win you'd get 15/2 - maybe a better price than you'd get elsewhere. It's a small cherry - but one you want to be aware of for those times it's useful to you.
-
Heard about Centrebet's SP+ service? This gives you the chance to take an enhanced price on a single selection every day of the week. Instead of 4/1, for example, you get to lock in a 9/2 payout. There are times when that extra fraction of a point means you're on your selection at a better price than is available anywhere else in the market - so, again, it's something you want to be aware of and positioned to take advantage of.
-
25% of your losses back? Canbet are fighting hard for racing custom. Right now they are running a Racing Rebate service. Bet with Canbet and if, over a month, your account shows a net loss from racing bets then Canbet will refund 25% of those losses to your account. Nobody sets out to lose but Canbet's rebate gives you a safety net that isn't available elsewhere.
-
Like your multiple bets? Then you want a BetFred account - where 'Super Bonuses' are applied to winning Yankees (25%), Canadians (50%) and Heinz (100%).
-
Blue Square return their own SP? That's right and, what's more, the Blue Square SP is guaranteed to never be lower than the industry return. And it's often higher. Since December 1st, out of 681 races, 291 winners (43%) have been returned at a bigger SP than the industry SP. If you don't have a Blue Square account then you'll never benefit from the enhanced returns.
I could go on. There's plenty out there. My point is this: To get the best possible return from your bets it pays to know what deals are available and to be positioned to take advantage of them when they suit or when you need them. That means holding accounts with plenty of bookmakers. Make it your business this year to go out and secure those accounts and then use them to get more out of every bet you strike.
Until next time, be lucky.
|
