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6th January 2010
Good afternoon, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus….
- All Weather courses and surfaces….
- The right hand and the left hand….
- Don't lay blind…
- Go racing for free….
True suffering in midwinter…
Heavy rains, cruel frosts and thick snow are the traditional fare of
British midwinter. But forget about all those newspaper horror stories
about the hell of commuting on the roads and the British public transport
system – when the weather does its worst it's the jump racing fans
amongst us who suffer most. And we are suffering right now.
Since the turn of the year we've lost jumps meetings at Leicester,
Taunton, Wetherby, Lingfield, Sandown, Folkestone, Ayr, Exeter, Fakenham,
Catterick, Musselburgh and Fairyhouse. Hexham and Southwell have been
lost today. Huntingdon and Ludlow have been lost tomorrow. There will be
no racing at Bangor or Fontwell on Friday. Wincanton has already declared
Saturday's meeting lost to the weather.
Officials at Ffos Las say there is a fair chance that racing will take
place there on Saturday – a card which includes the revived Welsh
Champion Hurdle and the Tolworth Hurdle which has been transferred from
last Saturday's lost fixture at Sandown. They are working hard down there
in Wales to ensure we've got something to enjoy this weekend – but
nothing is definite. Not even all-weather racing can be relied upon
completely – today's all-weather fixture at Lingfield has been called off
owing to the weather.
But this week I must admit to being glad of the sand racing when I've
switched on ATR in the mornings. There's no worse situation for the
racing fan than no racing at all. And I've quite enjoyed getting to grips
with a type of racing that's normally off my radar to a great extent.
When seeking to get a grip on something unfamiliar there is no shame
whatsoever in taking a 'back to the real basics' approach and building
from the ground up. It's something most punters you are up against will
neglect to do. Taking the time to absorb just a little knowledge can take
you a long way and give you more of an edge over the market than you'd
imagine.
Courses and surfaces…
There are four all-weather courses in England – Kempton, Lingfield,
Southwell and Wolverhampton. Most punters think they are all the same.
They look the same so they must be the same? Right? Wrong.
Races at Kempton, Lingfield and Wolverhampton are run on what is known as
the Polytrack surface. Polytrack has the texture of natural dirt but is
lighter in color. It is a mixture of sand, synthetic fibers and recycled
rubber coated with a microcrystalline wax. Races at Southwell, on the
other hand, are run on a surface called Fibresand. Fibresand is also sand
and synthetic fibres but it is softer than Polytrack and produces greater
'kickback'. Fibresand is more inclined to form lumps and does not cope
well with very cold weather.
Being aware of this slight difference between the courses puts you well
in front of the betting shop crowd for whom sand is sand is sand. Horses
with form at Southwell will not necessarily transfer that form to the
Polytrack courses. Similarly horses who run well on Polytrack will not
necessarily replicate that form when running on Southwell's fibresand
surface. It's something to be aware of and something to bear in mind when
looking at the form of horses you are considering backing or laying.
The right hand and the left hand…
Another simple but crucial difference that all weather punters need to be
aware of is which way round the horses go at each course.
At Wolverhampton, Lingfield and Southwell the races are run left-handed
(with one exception which I'll come to in a moment). At Kempton the
horses run right-handed. When looking at a horse's all weather form it
will pay you to take into consideration which way round its best form was
achieved.
Many horses will go both ways. But not all. Imagine seeing these all
weather form figures next to a runner in the 7f Handicap at Wolverhampton
– 101781. 3 wins in his last 6 runs looks pretty good. That's a 50%
strike rate. But now let's say we take out the runs at Kempton going
right-handed. Now the form figures look like this – 078. Suddenly the
horse doesn't look like such a good bet at Wolverhampton. The horse has
gone left-handed 3 times in its last 6 races and run a clunker each time.
Horses are like humans – they have preferences – and it pays to figure
out what these are. A horse that excels going right-handed will not
necessarily be as effective going left handed. And horses that have
proven good form at Lingfield, Southwell and Wolverhampton may not
necessarily run up to that form when asked to go the other way at
Kempton.
Bear in mind that 5f races at Southwell are run on the straight part of
the course – providing another variant that might suit some sprinters
more than others.
Next week I'll bring you some analysis of the draw factor at the all
weather tracks.
Don't lay blind!!
The last issue of HRF excited a big postbag. And, on the strength of that
issue, it seems some of you have started blind laying 4/1 and under shots
on the all weather. Fair enough. If that's what you want to do then over
the long term you will make a profit. But be aware that you'll also
experience an awful lot of ups and downs. There can be long runs of
results going for you and long sequences of results going against you –
which you'll have to have the temperament to weather and withstand.
I would never recommend laying blind. I don't do it myself and I wouldn't
advise you to. My intention when highlighting the record of horses going
off at 4/1 or less on the all weather, under Tony McCoy, in 2yo maiden
races etc is to draw your attention to groups of horses where plenty of
losers can be found. I am flagging up fertile ground for exchange layers.
I am interested in laying short-priced animals. But I don't just lay a
horse because it is 4/1 or less. The horse's price merely draws my
attention to the animal. I then take a close look at its profile and its
form record to see if I can identify flaws that the wider market is not
taking into account. If I can find such flaws I will lay the horse. If I
can't I won't. I will let the animal run without involving myself in the
outcome. In this way I avoid laying winners – and sometimes I miss out on
laying a loser.
The point is I use my discrimination. I find that works best for me.
Prices are merely a guide to animals that are of interest to me as an
exchange layer. But I don't invest my money solely on the basis of what
the wider market tells me (in the form of a short price). I invest on the
basis of what my own analysis, insight and observations lead me to
believe. There's a big difference. I maybe should have highlighted this
stance as part of the last issue.
Go all-weather racing for free…
You can go all weather racing for free at Wolverhampton all this month.
The kind folk down there are giving free admission to the Grandstand
enclosure at all their meetings throughout January.
If you're within the catchment area (and maybe even if you're not) it's a
great opportunity to have a day at the races. And if you've never sampled
all weather racing before then it's a good chance to do so without having
to put your hand in your pocket for the admission price.
If you want a free ticket then you will have to book it. You can call the
course on 01902 390000. You can text RACE to 60070. Or you can email:
info@wolverhampton-racecourse.co.uk.
I might even see you down there!
Until next time, be lucky.
14th January 2010
Good afternoon, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus...
- Draw biases offer an all-weather angle...
- 5 ways you might use draw stats...
Draw biases offer an all-weather angle...
We've got just about ten weeks of the all-weather season proper
stretched out ahead of us. In the past I would have been totally
disinterested. However, the weather over the last couple of weeks -
and a complete dearth of jump racing - has led me to engage with the
format. And I've got to admit that, having dug about and found a
couple of angles, I'm beginning to enjoy it.
Speed figures, collateral form and the differences that exist
between each of the English tracks all offer plenty of potential
angles to the all-weather punter. So too do draw biases. And that's
where my focus is this week.
I'll come to races over 7 furlongs and a mile at each course next
week. This week I'm concentrating on races over 5 furlongs and 6
furlongs at each of the 4 all-weather courses - Lingfield,
Southwell, Kempton and Wolverhampton.
In making my statistical analysis I have focused on races over those
distances throughout 2009 and into 2010 so far. In order to keep the
focus on what is happening NOW I didn't want to go any further back
into historical data. Biases change over time and what was or wasn't
happening 2 or 3 years ago will not prove relevant or instructional
to bets we want to place today, tomorrow or next week. I also
decided to focus solely on races with 9 runners or more.
Lingfield - avoid stall 1 and play the percentages...
Races over 5 furlongs take place around 2 left-handed bends with a
maximum of 10 runners. When looking at these races I would
completely discount whatever is running out of stall 1. 28 runners
have run out of the stall over 5 furlongs in the last year and none
of them have managed to win. Of the 28 winners of 5 furlong races
over the period 17 (61%) have come out of stalls 2, 3, 4 or 5 - and
horses set to run from those stalls should be looked at closely.
In a race round 2 tight bends you might think the horse drawn widest
would be at a distinct disadvantage - but the facts don't fir the
theory. Stall 10 has produced 5 winners over the period and knowing
that might give you an edge over the wider market which I believe
will generally take the view that the widest horse can't win.
Races over 6 furlongs are run around 3 bends with a maximum of 12
runners and once again runners from stall 1 are really up against
it. 57 have tried over the last year and just one has been
successful. Short price runners from stall 1 over 5 or 6 furlongs at
Lingfield are clearly decent candidates for laying purposes.
Over 6 furlongs winners come from pretty much all parts of the draw
but the percentage call is to focus special attention on runners
from stalls 9, 10, 11 or 12 which have produced 22 out of the 58
(38%) winners over the sample period.
Southwell - go low in the sprints...
5 furlong races are run on the straight at Southwell and have up to
14 runners. The percentage play is to focus your attention on
runners from stalls 1,2,3,4, 5 and 6. These stalls have produced 34
(76%) of the 45 winners over 5 furlongs at Southwell over the test
period. Backing runners in stalls 10 or bigger is not advisable -
over the period 107 runners have run out of those stalls and just 7
have triumphed.
6 furlong races take place around 2 bends. 40 (71%) of the 56
winners over the period have run out of stalls 3 to 9 inclusive.
That's the percentage play. Runners from stalls 10 or bigger have
scored just 9 times from 151 runners. Avoiding these high-stall
runners will mean you miss a few winners but swerve a damn sight
more losers.
Kempton - high numbers are best
At right-handed Kempton the 5 furlong sprinters run around 2 bends -
with a maximum of 12 runners per race. Only 28 5 furlong races have
been run over the last year - and 50% of those have been won by
horses racing out of stall 9 or higher.
Over 6 furlongs races are run around 2 bends - again with a maximum
of 12 runners per race. Of the 84 winners of 6 furlong races over
the text period 48 (57%) have done the winning out of stall 8 or
higher. Runners from stall 1 have the worst record - just 3 wins out
of 67 - and are best avoided.
Wolverhampton - another course where it pays to go low...
5 furlong races are run around 2 tight left-handed bends. The course
configuration appears to suit those drawn low over 5 furlongs. Of 57
winners over the test period 28 (49%) were drawn in stalls 1, 2 or
3. Just 10 winners over the minimum distance were drawn in stall 8
or higher.
6 furlong races take place on the straight. Over the test period
there have been 91 qualifying races and 59 (65%) of the winners were
drawn in the first 7 stalls.
Using these stats...
You can use these stats to split the field of any race over 5
furlongs or 6 furlongs into probables and the less likely.
Exchange layers might look to oppose short-priced fancies running
out of the wrong part of the draw.
Keen race watchers might look for horses that run well from a bad
part of the draw - and back them next time out (assuming they get a
good draw next time) on the basis that they could be winners waiting
to happen.
Forecast, Tricast and Placepot players might want to make multiple
selections from the best parts of the draw.
Punters who like to dutch 2 or 3 runners in order to try and squeeze
a profit from every race might also want to focus their efforts
solely on those runners with the draw on their side.
Just a few ideas. Next week I'll be back with some stats for races
over 7 and 8 furlongs.
Until then, be lucky.
20th January 2010
Good afternoon, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus...
- All weather draw biases over 7f and 8f...
Moving on to 7 and 8 furlongs...
Last week we looked at how draw biases might help us split the field
and identify the most interesting runners for betting purposes over
the sprint distances at England's 4 all-weather tracks - Lingfield,
Kempton, Southwell and Wolverhampton. This week I'm focusing on the
effects and impacts of the draw in races over 7 furlongs and a mile.
In making my statistical analysis I have focused on races over those
distances throughout 2009 and into 2010 so far. In order to keep the
focus on what is happening right NOW I don't want to go any further
back into historical data. Biases change over time and what was or
wasn't happening 2 or 3 years ago will not prove relevant or
instructional to bets we want to place today, tomorrow or next week.
I have also confined my analysis to races with 9 participants or
more.
Lingfield - where to focus and what to avoid...
Races over 7f and 8f at Lingfield are run left handed around 3 tight
bends with a field maximum of 14 runners at 7f and 12 runners at 8f.
When there are 9 or 10 runners in a 7f race you want to avoid horses
draw in stall 1 which has produced just 1 winner from 32 runners
over the test period. Focus your attention instead on runners from
stalls 2 to 8 inclusive. These stalls have produced 29 (82.8%)
winners in the 35 races analysed over the test period.
When the 7f races are contested by 11 or more runners the percentage
call is to look at horses running from stalls higher than 7. These
have produced 30 (55%) winners of the 55 such races. In fields of 14
you can pretty safely strike a line through the runner from stall 14
- a stall which has produced not a single winner from 25 runners
over the test period.
Over a mile in fields of 9 or 10 it pays to go high. 12 (39%)
winners of the 31 races analysed have come out a stall bigger than 9
(Note: in a 9 or 10 runner race a hose can still run from stall 11
or 12 if there is a non-runner lower in the draw).
In fields of 11 or 12 pay special attention to runners in stalls 7
to 12 inclusive which have produced 28 (60%) winners from 47 races.
Stalls 1, 2 and 3 are best avoided completely having produced just 7
winners from 137 combined runners.
Southwell - go middle for diddle...
Races over 7f and 8f on the fibresand at Southwell are run left-
handed around 2 bends with maximum field sizes of 14 runners.
In fields of 9, 10 or 11 over 7f avoid runners from stalls 1 and 2
and horses running from any stall bigger than 9 - the winner to
runners ratios are poor from these stalls. Instead focus on stalls 3
to 9 inclusive which have produced 14 (82%) of the winners in the 17
races analysed.
In fields of 12 or more over 7f it's a similar story - a middle draw
is the percentage play. 19 (59%) of the winners of the 32 races
analysed have run out of stalls 5 to 10 inclusive.
As a side note stall 6 seems to be the hoodoo stall over 7f at
Southwell (in fields of 9 or more runners) with not a single winner
from the last 42 runners.
In fields of 9, 10 or 11 over 8f focus your attention on stalls 4 to
9 inclusive. Horses running from these stalls have produced 31 (79%)
of the 39 winners over the test period. The story is very similar in
fields of 12+ over 8f - 13 (59%) of the 22 winners have started the
races in stalls 4 to 10 inclusive.
Kempton - Where the winners are coming from...
Races over 7f and 8f at Kempton are run right-handed around 2 bends
with a maximum field size of 16.
In fields of 9 to 12 runners over 7f I would focus my attention on
horses running from stall 6 or higher - over the test period these
have produced 43 (67%) winners of the 64 races analysed.
In fields of 13+ over 7f focus attention on stalls 5 to 12 inclusive
- the part of the draw where 27 (71%) winners of the 38 qualifying
races have broken from. Avoid stall 1 which has scored a blank from
35 efforts.
In fields of 9 to 12 runners over 8f stalls 8 and higher have proven
the most productive having housed 26 (47%) of the 55 relevant
winners. In fields of 13+ runners over 8f the reverse is the case
and the percentage call is to go lower and focus on stalls 2 to 8
inclusive where 30 (65%) of the 46 winners started their races.
Wolverhampton - low is generally the way to go...
Races over 7f 32 yards at Wolverhampton are run around a left handed
bends. Races over 1 mile and 141 yards are run around two left
handed bends.
In fields of 9 or 10 runners over 7f 29 (71%) of the winners of the
41 qualifying races have run from stalls 2 to 5 inclusive. The lower
numbers are the call.
In fields of 11 or 12 over 7f it's a similar story with stalls 1 to
7 producing 47 (67%) of the 70 winners over the test period.
In fields of 9 or 10 runners over 8f stalls 1 to 7 are again the
call with 24 (77%) of the 31 winners of qualifying races over the
test period running out of stalls 1 to 7 inclusive.
In fields of 11+ runners over 8f the evidence is less conclusive but
the sweet spot of the draw appears to be stalls 4 to 9 inclusive
where 33 (52%) of the 63 winners have been housed over the last year
or so.
Until next time, be lucky.
29th January 2010
Good morning, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus...
- Gordon is a surprise package...
- Keep your powder dry until May...
- Where there's been feast... and famine...
The numbers game...
I spend a lot of time looking at various stats, crunching numbers
and figuring out different ways of looking at them. Sometimes I know
what I'm looking for - or at least I have some idea of what I'm
trying to establish. Other times it more of a fishing expedition -
throw the line into the water and take your chances.
There's something very pleasing about the latter approach. You never
quite know what you're going to bring to light or learn. It's
surprising how infrequently the exercise is a complete waste of
time. There always seems to be something to glean from the process -
an angle, an insight or a slightly deeper understanding of whatever
area I happen to be looking at.
Gordon is a surprise package...
Gordon Elliot has surprised a few people this season. And he
probably surprised a few last season too. Right now he's sitting
20th in the Great Britain Jumps Trainers Championship with 31
winners from 107 runners at a strike rate of 29%.
To put that impressive strike rate into perspective - Paul Nicholls
won the Championship last year with a seasonal strike rate of 25%
(remember the Championship goes to the trainer who wins most prize
money - not to the trainer with the best ratio of winners to
runners).
To put Elliot's current strike rate into further perspective you
might be interested to learn that only a single handler in last
season's top 30 trainers got anywhere near that strike rate of 29% -
Gordon Elliot. From his 82 runners last term he sent out 24 winners
at exactly 29%.
His form this season is no anomaly or aberration - it's solid
evidence that the County Meath trainer knows how to get the best out
of his string when he sends his runners over the Irish sea. Funnily
enough he doesn't do quite as well at 'home' In the last 2 seasons
he's saddled 369 runners on Irish courses and just 35 winners at
9.48%. Maybe his charges do better over here because of the better
ground they encounter.
Leave his runners alone for the moment...
If it's already occurred to you to check out Elliot's entries over
the next few days - then think again. Now is not the time of year to
be wading into the yard's runners. Looking at his record since the
beginning of 2008 it's clear that January, February, March and April
are something of a fallow period for the yard - 147 runners in those
months have produced just 9 winners at just 6.1%. (To further
underline the point Elliot has sent out 19 runners since January
17th producing just a single winner).
Make a note to start taking an interest in the yard once the spring
festivals at Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown are behind us. The
summer jumps programme is the bread and butter for the Elliott yard.
310 runners in the months of May, June, July, August and September
have produced 65 winners at 21%. That's when we want to be
subjecting the yard's runners to closest scrutiny.
Where the handler excels...
Looking at his runners in Great Britain and Ireland as a whole since
the beginning of 2008 reveals that Elliott has his best results with
his non-handicap chasers and his bumper (National Hunt flat) horses.
With the chasers he's saddled 17 winners from 66 runners (in
addition to fourteen 2nd and 3rd places). With the bumper horses
he's produced 12 winners from 46 runners (with none 2nd and 3rd
place finishes to boot).
There aren't too many clues when it comes to the pilots on his
horses. Elliott uses a wide variety of jockeys both in Ireland and
on the British mainland. However, based purely on strike-rates the
most significant bookings for the yard appear to be Jason Maguire
(22.2%), AP McCoy (47.6%), P Carberry (20%), Brian Hughes (35.7%),
Davy Russell (26.3%) and Barry Geraghty (20.8%).
Where there's been feast... And famine...
Perth is by far the yard's happiest hunting ground - both over here
and in Ireland. Elliott has had 5 times as many winners at the
Scottish course as he has anywhere else. His runners there have to
be respected. He's saddled 93 Perth runners since the beginning of
2008 and 30 of them have done the business for the backers. Horses
from all parts of his yard - chasers, hurdlers and bumper horses -
win there.
No other course produces anything like the results the yard extracts
from Perth. But the Elliott record does indicate that two places you
don't want to be pumping money onto his runners are Cheltenham where
the yard has a record of 1 winner from 17 attempts or Navan where 50
runners have generated just 3 winners.
Like I say, when you throw the line into the water you never really
know what you're going to pull out. It might not be something we can
use to great effect immediately - but come May we'll have a little
bit more of an idea about how we can best play the Gordon Elliott
runners.
Until next time, be lucky.
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