Directory of Past issues - January 2012

4th January - Two yards that produce January profits...

11th January - Grade 1 chase winners and Festival handicap stats...

18th January - Making sense of the Festival handicaps...

25th January - Smaller yard stats in the Festival handicaps...

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Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus....

• Saint Nicky delivers the Christmas pudding....
• Stick with the winning team during January....
• It's time to watch out for Noseda's runners....
• The best way to up your game in 2012....

Saint Nicky delivers the Christmas pudding....

In the last HRF column before the festive break I outlined how Nicky
Henderson and his team have developed the knack of producing profits
for punters during Christmas week (26th December to January 3rd for
our purposes) and he certainly didn't let us down. I hope you
managed to latch onto your fair share of winners and your portion of
the betting profits.

The yard performed overall pretty much as the historical record led
us to expect. Henderson's 44 runners produced 16 winners at 36.3% -
backing all the runners to £20.00 level stakes produced a neat
little profit of some £200.

• Barry Geraghty and A P McCoy hit their usual high strike-rates
  for Henderson over the period. The former rode 5 winners from 11
  whilst the latter went in on 3 from 5. If you backed all their rides
  to level stakes of £20.00 they produced a modest but welcome surplus of £74.20. It won't pay for a holiday in Barbados but it does cover a couple of rounds down at the local.

• Another angle I suggested you might consider involved backing
  the Henderson runners in Class 4, 5 and 6 events. If you adopted
  that approach during Xmas week then you enjoyed some very sweet
  pickings. While a lot of punters were focused on the yard's big guns
  the 18 runners contesting races in the lower class divisions
  produced 10 winners and profits amounting to £420.00 if you backed
  them to level stakes of £20.00. Merry Xmas!

• I also drew attention to the record of Henderson's 5- and 6-
  year-old runners during Xmas week. I can't necessarily explain why -
  but they always seem to go particularly well. This year was no
  exception. The yard sent out 26 runners from the 5- to 6-year-old
  age-band - generating 9 winners at 34.6%. To £20.00 level stakes the
  group produced a profit of £167.20 - that's not a bad week's work!

Stick with the winning team during January....

The Henderson yard is going so well at the moment I wouldn't try to
dissuade anybody from continuing to try and capitalize. The runners
going to post in non-handicap events over both hurdles and fences
are going particularly well right now - the last 28 such runners
from the yard producing 15 winners and £414.40 worth of profit
backed to level stakes of £20.00.

The stats suggest that the winning run will continue during January.
On the evidence of the last 3 years the Henderson yard excels during
the first month of the year. The last 200 runners sent out by
Henderson in the month of January have produced a total of 61
winners - a winning strike rate of just over 30%.

But you wouldn't have made a profit backing all to level stakes. Far
from it. Backing all 200 January runners to level stakes of £20
would have produced losses amounting to £462.20.

That's not the kind of result we're looking for. Clearly we need to
discriminate in our selections - using filters that limit our
involvement with losing horses. And Henderson's favoured jockey,
Barry Geraghty, is key when it comes to meeting that objective....

• Profit from the modest runners - It's Henderson's class 1
  horses that everybody likes to talk about but you can make hay
  backing his runners further down the classification scale -
  particularly when Geraghty is the man in the saddle. In class 3,
  4, 5 and 6 races in January with Geraghty onboard Henderson has
  produced 30 winners from his last 61 runners. They go in almost 50%
  of the time but the market overlooks them and profits run to £310.40
  off £20.00 level stakes. That's pretty tasty action.

• Keep your eye on the bumper horses - they won't produce a
  wealth of bets but they have a history of producing useful profits
  at this time of year. Geraghty's presence in the saddle is important
  once again. On Henderson bumper horses in January his last 16 rides
  have produced 9 winners. Backed to level stakes of £20.00 punters
  are ahead to the tune of £124.00. Avoid the Henderson bumper horses
  Geraghty isn't on.

• Henderson returns layoff horses to action at this time of year
  - there will be no shortage of runners from the yard which haven't
  seen a racetrack for 6 weeks or longer. They are worth backing when
  they show up - but only the ones that Geraghty is riding. When he's
  in the saddle of a Henderson runner in January which hasn't raced
  for 42 days or longer his record reads 19 wins from 47 runners. It's
  another 40%+ strike rate and another one the market hasn't fully
  cottoned on to. To £20.00 level stakes the profits amount to a more
  than acceptable £192.60.

• Focus on the younger horses - once again the ones of specific
  interest are the ones ridden by Barry Geraghty. On 4-, 5- and 6-
  year-old runners for Henderson in January (in bumpers, over hurdles
  or over fences) Geraghty's last 61 rides have produced 27 winners at
  44.2% and £183.80 worth of profit to level stakes.

That's something to be going on with...

It's time to watch out for Noseda's runners....

On the all-weather during January it will pay you to look out for
Jeremy Noseda's entries. It's at this time of year his 3- and 4-
year-old AW runners start to shine. His runners won't produce a
mountain of bets but they do have a record of producing useful
profits here and there.

Over the last 3 years Noseda's 31 January all-weather runners have
produced 12 winners at 38.7%. Backed to £20 level stakes the runners
have produced profits of £165.60.

• Noseda is particularly good at producing his horses to win on
  the all-weather off a break. Off breaks of 42 days+ his January all-
  weather runners are 6 wins from the last 11 runners. Profits amount
  to £174.80 to £20.00 level stakes.

• He sends most of his all-weather runners to Lingfield. That
  appears to be the favoured option. But for putting purposes it's
  better when he sends his runners to Southwell, Kempton or
  Wolverhampton. Backed as a group the last 13 runners he's sent to
  those courses have produced 6 winners and profits of £140.40 to
  £20.00 level stakes. These are clearly opportunities worth waiting
  for.

The best way to up your game in 2012....

Of course Nicky Henderson and Jeremy Noseda are not the only
trainers who like to start the New Year with a flood of winners in
specific areas of the game. There are plenty of other handlers who
have a history of preparing specific groups of horses to strike
during January. Punters who know where to look can pick up some
tasty profits.

This is exactly the kind of information I like to provide every
Thursday as part of my Racing Angles service - which goes out to
discerning punters 3 times a week. Tomorrow I'll be giving my
subscribers the lowdown on more trainers to follow over the jumps
and on the all-weather at this time of year - backed up with all the
statistical evidence you need to take advantage.

Right now you can sign-up for a month-long FREE trial of the service
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If this is the year you're looking to kick on with your race punting
then consider trialing my Racing Angles service. It's about stats
and angles that get results. It could be exactly what you're looking
for in 2012.

Until next time, be lucky.

Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus....

• Playing the Nicholls statistics in Grade 1 chases....
• Henderson continues to produce the profits....
• Something you won't see very often....
• Festival handicap stats....

Playing the Nicholls statistics in Grade 1 chases....

When Kauto Star won his 5th King George at Kempton on Boxing Day the
victory underpinned a significant stat in relation to Grade 1 chases
run in Britain.

Paul Nicholls-trained horses have won 44 (30%) of the last 147 G1
chases to be run in this country - a stat that is even more
remarkable when you consider that the next trainers on the list are
Nicky Henderson and Henrietta Knight both of whom are just about in
double-figures in terms of Grade 1 wins.

Nicholls has the ammunition to throw at these Grade 1 events for
sure - but the horses still have to be trained and targeted
effectively. When it comes to preparing chasers for raids on
Grade 1 races Nicholls is the undoubted master.

I've been taking a look at the numbers and there are a few stats
that could be helpful in rooting out future G1 chase winners trained
by Paul Nicholls going forward....

• Look to the French - 36 of his 44 G1 chase winners were
  French-bred.

• The rest period is significant - 34 of his 44 G1 chase winners
  had been off the track for at least 3 weeks and no more than 8
  weeks.

• The man in the saddle - Ruby Walsh rode 32 of the 44 G1 chase
  winners trained by Nicholls since the beginning of 2000. His rides
  clearly merit special attention.

• The market is clued up - 42 of his 44 G1 chase winners were
  sent off as one of the front three in the market.

Just a few things to note and bear in mind as we head towards the
business end of the 2011/12 jumps season....

Henderson continues to produce the profits....

In last week's issue of HRF I suggested that runners from Nicky
Henderson's yard are worth considering throughout January - a month
where he can usually be relied on to send out winners at a 30% ratio
to runners.

He hasn't let us down so far. I outlined last week that his non-
handicap runners were going particularly well and that trend has
continued over the last 7 days. The last 13 non-handicap runners
over hurdles and fences have produced 7 wins. Profit over the week
amounts to some 11.6 points - or £232.00 to level stake bets of £20.

Barry Geraghty's rides have also been a source of profits over the 7
day period - 8 rides producing 3 wins and 6.9 points of profit.
That's £138.00 worth of surplus - making it a happy and profitable
start to the New Year for backers of the Henderson/Geraghty
partnership.

Overall the Henderson yard is sending the winners out at a rate of
33.3% right now - more than 50% of his runners making the first 3 in
their races. There should me more to come as the month progresses.
Check out last week's column for the lowdown on strong angles for
betting the yard's runners.

Something you won't see very often....

You won't see this too many times during your punting career....
yesterday's 12-runner Novices' Hurdle at Taunton was won by 200/1
shot, Lights Of Broadway. He was followed home by 50/1 chance Wishes
And Stars in 2nd and 33/1 shot Fortuna Rose in 3rd. The Straight
Forecast paid £3484.42 and the Exacta paid £1749.20. That's nice
work if you can get it.

Lights Of Broadway went to post completely friendless in the market
- opening at 150/1 before drifting out to 200/1 SP. It was a sweet
little touch for the bookies who had taken the lion's share of the
betting money for 15/8 chance Pyleigh Lass - the grey mare finished
4th (rubbing salt into the market's wounds by finishing a length out
of the places).

It got me to thinking about horses sent off at 200/1 or bigger.
Exactly how many of them do go in - and in what kind of races?

There's no point asking a question without making some attempt to
provide the answer. So here's what I discovered after trawling
through all the races run on the flat, on the all weather, in the
bumpers, over hurdles and over the fences in Britain since the
beginning of 2000.

On that evidence hurdle races do seem to be the percentage play but
even I have to admit defeat when it comes to framing a system that
might lead to long-term profits. All we can say for sure off those
stats is that the average 200/1 shot would be more realistically
priced up at 1000/1+ - and even that's being generous to the
bookmakers.

If you still fancy backing horses at 200/1 or bigger than you can
get all the advice you really need right here.

Festival handicap stats....

The Cheltenham Festival is on the horizon now and my pre-meeting
preparation has already begun in earnest. Over the last few days
I've been crunching the numbers related to the handicap races run at
the Festival.

Looking at race types as a group - as opposed to individual races in
isolation - can provide significant pointers which enable you to
zero-in on the types of horses that make good bet selections. The
approach can also help you swerve the types of runners that
generally don't make good bets.

• For example, you generally wouldn't want to be putting your
  cash down on a mare running in a Festival handicap. Since the 2000
  Festival 95 mares have gone to post in Festival handicaps and
  produced just 2 wins between them. The percentage play is clearly to
  avoid them.

• It's a slightly different story with fillies. Only 8 have gone
  to post in the last 11 Festivals - all of them in the Fred Winter
  Juvenile Novice's Handicap Hurdle - and 3 of them won. Gaspara won
  in 2007, Silk Affair in 2009 and What A Charm won it last year (and
  it is worth noting that the first two ran under a penalty). If you
  absolutely must back a lady to win a Festival handicap then the Fred
  Winter is the obvious race to target.

• When betting in the Festival handicaps you should also
  consider sticking to selections that have run during the 6 weeks
  leading up to the meeting. From time to time horses do win Festival
  handicap races off a long break - just as Junior did for David Pipe
  last year. When he won the Kim Muir he hadn't seen a race
  track for 75 days. But the percentage play is to stick with horses
  running off a break of 42 days or less. Such horses have won 75 (or
  74%) of the 101 handicap races run at the Festival since 2000. The
  770 horses to go to post in a handicap over the period having been
  off the track for more than 42 days produced just 27 winners between
  them.

• That said it is worth noting that David Pipe was responsible
  for 4 of those 27 wins, Willie Mullins for 3 and Ferdy Murphy for
  another 3. That trio appears to have mastered the knack of winning
  the Festival handicaps with horses coming off long breaks.

Over the last few days over on Racing Angles I've been producing
more of these kinds of angles - in more detail. Right now my
publisher is offering a FREE 1-month trial of the Racing Angles
service...

Sign up today and you get immediate access to the Festival materials
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That covers it for today, friends.

Until next time, be lucky.

Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus....

• Where the stats point in the Festival handicaps...
• The 11-year sweet spot in terms of age...
• On breed - support the away teams...
• Relative newcomers are better bets than the veterans...

As you know, I'm a racing man through and through. But I'm not
adverse to a punt on other sports - I just have to make sure I'm in
possession of some good advice. At this time of year I am usually on
the look out for advice on the Six Nations rugby, which starts in
February. My first port of call is always this guy - Mr X. In years
gone by he's been known to pick 12 out of 14 winning bets from the
tournament, turning 47 points profit.

This year's Six Nations coverage can ONLY be found in Mr X's new
Live Sport Profits service. The doors open any day now. You can join
me on the waiting list here...

www.oxonpress.com/prioritylist/

And when it comes to the racing, at this time of year there's only
one thing on my mind - Cheltenham...

Where the stats point in the Festival handicaps...

There have been 101 handicap races run at the Cheltenham Festival
since 2000 - in which a total of 2234 horses have gone to post.
Today I want to take a brief look at a couple of specific areas
where the stats suggest it might pay to look for potential handicap
bets during Festival week... and a couple of considerations you
should make when you come to make your own selections nearer to the
time....

The 11-year sweet spot in terms of age...

There are Festival handicap events open to horses aged 4yo+ - the
Coral Cup and the Martin Pipe Conditionals Handicap Hurdle - but
these events haven't produced any 4-year-old winners over the last
11 Festivals (though it should be noted that the Martin Pipe
race has only been on the Festival programme for the last 3 years).

But runners aged from 5-years-old all the way up to 12-years-old
have won handicap events open to horses aged 4yo+ and 5yo+ and the
winners of Festival handicaps look pretty evenly split across the
age-groups as the following table illustrates:

The 9-year-olds have produced the most winners - almost 21% of the
handicap winners produced by the last 11 Festivals. But there's
nothing overly conclusive to draw from that. 7- and 8-year-old
runners have also produced a respectable quantity of winners.
And on the face of these bare figures only the older runners could
be summarily dismissed from consideration with any real sense of
conviction or confidence.

It is only when we come to look at how many runners each age-group
has required to produce the winners that we see something
interesting....

The 9-year-old runners have produced more than 20% of the handicap
winners over the last 11 Festivals despite providing only 14% of the
runners in the races.

Incredible as it may seem the 9-year-old handicappers have actually
been profitable to follow - as a group - over the last 11 Festivals.
If you'd backed all 296 to a £10 level stake you'd be sitting on a
profit of £975.00 going into the 2012 Festival. I don't recommend
doing that as a betting strategy! I offer it as a point of interest
and as possible evidence that the market overlooks 9-year-olds for
younger horses perhaps a little more often than is entirely
sensible.

It should be noted that the 5-year-old handicappers also show a
percentage of winners that outstrips the percentage of runners in
the Festival handicaps. Over the last 11 years the 5-year-olds have
provided 8.8% of the handicap field and 12.7% of the handicap
winners.

On breed - support the away teams...

I know the bookmakers, the press and the pundits like to build up
the Britain v Ireland rivalry at the Festival. But, in reality, I'm
not sure that too many punters are sufficiently partisan to swerve a
bet on a horse they really fancy on the basis that it isn't running
for the 'home' team.

In any case, where the Brits are concerned at least, rooting for the
home team via your betting activity could make for a pretty
miserable Festival - especially where the handicaps are concerned.

Which side of the notional divide a specific horse falls is
generally demarcated by the location of the yard it runs out of. But
taking it one step further - and admitting the French, the Germans
and the Americans into the mix - it's an interesting exercise to
take a look at which breeds prevail most often at the Festival.

Where the handicaps are concerned if you wanted to come over all
jingoistic and stick to supporting the British-bred animals my
advice would be stay at home and keep your money in your pocket.
British-bred horses account for just 19 of the last handicap winners
at the Festival.

The percentage play is to focus your attention on Irish- and French-
bred horses - between them they account for 80 (79.2%) of the 101
handicap winners since 2000. For the record the German-bred horses
are yet to win a single Festival handicap - from 64 runners.

Relative newcomers are better bets than the veterans...

Mister McGoldrick won the 2008 Racing Post Plate having raced 33
times over fences. Buena Vista won last year's Pertemps Final having
previously raced 29 times over hurdles. Burntoakboy, Creon, Kadoun
and Royal Predica have all won Festival handicaps in recent years -
over either fences or hurdles - having already raced 20 times or
more in races of that type.

Exposed horses of veteran status can and do win the big Festival
handicaps - but such wins are the exception rather than the rule.

When looking for bets in the Festival handicaps the stats tell us it
is far better to look amongst the more lightly-raced candidates.
Personally I would make a dozen races worth of experience my cut-off
point. Here's why:

• 43 (or 74%) of the 58 handicap chase winners at the Festival
  over the last 11 years had raced just 12 or fewer times over
  fences...

• 32 (or 74%) of the 43 handicap hurdle winners at the Festival
  over the last 11 years had raced just 12 or fewer times over the
  smaller flights...

One of the things plenty of punters like about the jump racing is
that old stalwarts appear on the track year on year. Punters have
time to get to know a horse.... to develop a connection with it....
maybe even an emotional connection.... a connection that leads to
the punter siding with and supporting the horse... because he is
familiar with it... when maybe he should be looking elsewhere...

Don't fall into the same trap at the Cheltenham Festival. Shun the
old and familiar runners... and look to support more-lightly raced
horses instead... the stats say they win more often. You might not
know the lightly-raced horses so well when you back them but the
stats suggest you're likely to remember them for all the right kinds
of reasons.

P.S. Over the next few weeks in Horse Racing Focus I'll be bringing
you plenty of stats, pointers and signposts that will enable you to
zero-in on good bets at the upcoming Cheltenham Festival. But, if
you want the complete lowdown, consider signing up to my thrice-
weekly Racing Angles service - where I'll be covering the Festival
stats down to the very last detail. Right now you can sign up to
trail the service for a month completely FREE of charge or
obligation. Click here for more details.

Until next time, be lucky.

Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus....

• Smaller yard stats in the Festival handicaps....
• Zeroing in on the Mullins-trained contenders....
• It's only a matter of time with Nick Williams....
• T J Taaffe warrants a mention in dispatches....
• Stick with ALT Moore's lightly raced handicappers....

Small yard stats in the Festival handicaps....

Over on my Racing Angles service at the moment I'm giving my readers
the lowdown on how best to play the handicappers sent to the
Cheltenham Festival by the top yards - those of David Pipe, Jonjo
O'Neill, Paul Nicholls, Nigel Twiston-Davies, Venetia Williams,
Nicky Henderson, Alan King and Philip Hobbs. Between them those
yards account for 40% of the 101 winners of Festival handicap events
run at the meeting since 2000.

But, of course, it's not all about the big established handlers.
Amongst the smaller yards, the less well-known yards and the yards
that are relatively new to the jumps scene there are training
outfits whose record in the Festival handicaps is worth noting and
digging into a little more deeply.

Looking at the previous runners that have done well for those yards
in past Festival handicap events - and identifying characteristics
common to those runners - could prove very helpful this time round.
The exercise can help us pinpoint this year's possible the live
contenders.

That's the theory at any rate - now let's put it into practice....

Zeroing in on the Mullins-trained contenders....

Willie Mullins, top Irish trainer, isn't exactly unknown to racing
punters. It's common knowledge that he targets his string at the
Festival events. And his runners merit respect - he's saddled 21
Festival winners (3 ahead of Edward O'Grady) making him the leading
Irish-handler currently training.

Compared to the Big British-based yards he's relatively modest in
terms of the volume of entries he makes in the Festival handicap
events - sending just 30 handicappers to Cheltenham from 2000
onwards. But that from that small group he's managed to produce 3
winners, five 3rd placed finishes and three 5th placed efforts. In
other words 36.6% of his runners made the frame.

I've included 5th placed finishes in the results because - where the
handicaps are concerned - plenty of bookmakers offer enhanced place
terms on these races bringing 5th place into play for the each-way
backers. And there is no shortage of punters who back each- way in
these big-field events - lively contenders can frequently be got at
a price that makes the exercise worthwhile.

Eight of the Mullins-trained horses that made the frame in a
Festival handicap went off at double-figure SPs - one at 10s, one at
14s, three at 16s, one at 20s and two at 50s. So there is clearly
some benefit to identifying consistent characteristics in the horses
which proved most competitive.

• Look for horses off the track for 21 days or more - all of the
  11 Mullins-trained horses that made the frame conformed to that
  statistical yardstick.

• Horses ridden by claimers are of significant interest - of the
  30 horses sent by Mullins into a Festival handicap 6 were ridden by
  claimers (they ride with an allowance and take weight off a horse's
  back - a vital edge in a handicap). Two of the six won - one at 20s.
  Another two made the frame - at 16s and 50s - securing handy place
  returns for each-way backers.

• Focus on his horses in the bottom half of the field - in
  handicap events the highest-rated horses carry most weight and the
  lowest saddlecloth numbers. Where Mullin's-trained handicappers are
  concerned you should focus most attention on the horses in the
  bottom half of the field. Since 2000 bottom-half-of-the-field-
  runners produced the yard's 3 handicap wins over the period and 4 of
  the placed efforts. None of them carried more than 11-3.

It's only a matter of time with Nick Williams....

Nick Williams hasn't managed to win a Festival handicap to date -
but his record in the events suggests it is only a matter of time.
His 10 runners in Festival handicaps have produced 6 in-the-frame
finishes - beaten an average of just 5 lengths. His handicap runners
merit a once over.

There are no really strong micro-trends - the sample of runners is
to small - but it is worth noting that the yard has enjoyed most
handicap success at the Festival with their higher-rated horses. All
4 horses rated 140+ on the official scale placed. All of the 4
that didn't were rated lower than 140.

In it is also worth noting that 5 of his 6 placed runners had been
off the track 5-weeks or more prior to running at the Festival.

T J Taaffe warrants a mention in dispatches....

T J Taaffe doesn't have many runners these days. He's saddled just
27 horses on the race track since the beginning of October. Nor did
he have any runners at last year's Festival. But he's well worth a
mention here just in case he sends one to a Festival handicap this
year - his record in the handicap events demands it. His last 14
Festival handicap runners have produced 2 wins and an additional 5
placed efforts.

His 6- and 7-year-old runners have enjoyed most success - that age
band producing both winners and 4 of the additional placed efforts.

None of his festival handicap winners were rated any higher than 140
- only one going to post with more than 11-1 on its back.

Stick with ALT Moore's lightly raced handicappers....

ALT Moore is another handler worth a mention. His last 17 Festival
handicap runners generated 3 wins and 5 additional placed efforts
between them. When Moore sends a handicapper to the Festival it is
worth running the rule over it.

The sample is small - again - but the stats do offer some direction
(albeit of the tentative variety)....

• His lightly-raced runners are the ones to concentrate on -
  Moore handicappers going to post at the Festival with a dozen or
  fewer races behind them (a dozen hurdle races for horses in handicap
  hurdles or a dozen chases for horses in handicap chases) are
  responsible for all 3 winners and 3 additional placed efforts. Only
  3 horses with that kind of experience-level going into the race have
  failed to make the frame for Moore.

• Moore is another handler who likes to give his horses a chance
  at the weights - all his 3 winners and 3 of the additional placed
  horses ran out of the bottom-half of the field with all of them
  carrying less than 11-0 to post. Only one of his 8 frame-makers was
  rated in excess of 140 on the official scale.

That's all we've got space for. There's more Festival-based material
to come in forthcoming issues. Next week I want to take a look at a
couple of bloodlines with festival pedigree - sires with a
consistent record of producing horses that bring betting returns
come March at Cheltenham.

Meanwhile the Festival preparation is well underway over on Racing
Angles. There's a stack of winner-finding stats to come in the weeks
ahead - and there's already plenty of useful material in the site
archive. If you fancy trialing the service and checking out how we
work you can sign up right now for a month completely free of
charge.

Until next time, be lucky.