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7th July 2010
Good afternoon, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus....
- A partnership worth following....
- One to note for next year's Lincoln....
- Spread your wings....
A partnership worth following....
'Richard Hughes is my favourite rider.' So said Cheshire-based
trainer Patrick Morris directly after the in-form jockey had
snatched victory in the final strides of a Class 6 handicap event
at Bath on Monday on Ask Jenny - a moderate sprinter with some 54
previous races under her belt.
Given that the day before Hughes was riding Dick Turpin to Group 1
success at Chantilly, it says something about the rider's commitment
to his patrons and their respective causes - whatever the level -
that his mind was fully on the job and not still stuck up in the
clouds.
'He's an absolute genius,' said Morris. 'He gets every horse to run
well, but he's brilliant on moderate horses.'
When a trainer starts speaking about a jockey in such glowing terms
it's a cue for punters to dig a little deeper. And, after reviewing
the stats, I'm not surprised Morris is so keen to sing the praises
of Richard Hughes. On the evidence of the numbers the partnership
is certainly one to take note of for the future.
Stephen Craine is the default booking for the Morris yard - having
taken 88 rides for the trainer in the last two years or so. He's
ridden 10 winners from those rides but shows a level stakes loss for
backers.
Hughes, on the other hand, Richard Hannon's retained number 1,
appears to be the booking of choice for Morris when he's saddling a
runner with a 'live' chance - and the rider is available.
He doesn't ride too many for the yard - just 18 since the beginning
of 2006 - but the minimal instances when yard and jockey combine are
well worth looking out for. Hughes has won on 4 of those 18 Morris
rides at a strike rate of 22.2%.
That's a great boost for a small, unfashionable yard that flies
pretty much under the radar and for which every penny of prize money
is vitally important. And it's proven to be a consistently
profitable angle for punters to follow too. The Morris/Hughes combo
backed to level stakes has delivered a 21 point profit since 2006.
To win long-term on the horses a punter needs a portfolio of
profitable approaches with which to attack the layers - and
supporting the rides Hughes takes for Morris represents just
such an approach.
There are no entries for the combination over the next few days -
and it might be some time before they join forces again - but the
effort of monitoring future entries is definitely worthwhile given
the nature of the relationship, the jockey's obvious commitment to
the yard's cause and the bottom line performance they've combined to
produce over the last few years.
One to note for next year's Lincoln....
Camerooney caught my eye when winning at Newcastle on June 26th in a
Class 2 handicap. It was his first effort at that level - most of
his previous efforts being in races at Class 5 and Class 6.
The win was the horse's 4th win on the turf since April (he came 2nd
in the other race). His form figures in 2010 - including his efforts
on the all-weather - read 1131211. Prior to 2010 the 7-year-old son
of Sugarfoot had raced 17 times without once visiting the winning
enclosure.
Trainer Brain Ellison has said he can offer no explanation for where
the obvious improvement has come from. Perhaps he is being too
modest. The horse was switched to the Ellison yard in October 2009
and maybe that change of scene and Ellison's handling of the horse
account for the marked improvement in fortunes.
Prior to joining Ellison Camerooney was campaigned at distances well
in excess of a mile. Since being dropped back to distances around a
mile we've witnessed the very improvement Ellison says he is at a
loss to explain.
At Newcastle Camerooney did have the benefit of making all up the
stands rail - a significant advantage on the day. But the result was
no fluke. The Split Second speed rating of 109 is a genuine Class 2
rating and backers should have no doubts that the horse can go in
again at this level.
Previous speed ratings of 107, 103 and 106 - in his 3 runs prior to
Newcastle - also support the theory that the horse has genuinely
improved rather than enjoyed some freakish run of fluke wins.
The horse is now going to be given a break. The Ellison plan is to
prepare the horse for a serious assault on the Lincoln Handicap at
Doncaster at the start of next season.
That's some way off, I admit. But make a note. Over a mile
Camerooney is obviously a serious performer - his speed ratings tell
us that much - and come next spring the wider market may well
discount the Newcastle win as being solely down to the draw
advantage he enjoyed on the day. And that would be a big mistake....
Spread your wings....
I often talk about backing with traditional bookmakers. I also talk
a lot about backing, laying and trading on the betting exchanges.
But there's also another option for making profits out of your race
betting - spread betting.
Right now I'm working on a FREE special report focusing on the
racing markets made available by spread betting firms, how they work
and - most importantly - the strategies, tactics and methods you
should be using to get an edge and cash in on these betting
opportunities.
I'll get this report to you towards the end of next week. So keep an
eye on your email box.
Until next time, be lucky.
20th July 2010
Good afternoon, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus....
- Signs, signals and flags....
- Options when you want to oppose....
- The more right you are the more you win....
Signs, signals and flags....
Racing isn't static. It is a living thing in a state of constant
flux. Nothing stays the same. Conditions, circumstances and market
opinions change on a daily basis. Horses, yards and riders dip in
and out of form. Trends, patterns and winning angles come to
prominence, persist for a while and then die away. Results come to
reflect new realities, influences and themes.
If you're going to make long-term profits from your betting then you
need to keep your finger on the pulse. You need to be watching for
the signs, signals and flags that can lead you to profitable courses
of action.
For example, during July Godolphin handler Saeed Bin Suroor has sent
out 6 horses which were sent off by the market at 6/4 or shorter.
Dafeef (5/4), Mureb (5/4), Roayh (Evens), Ragsah (5/4), Sahafh
(8/11) and Yamal (5/6) all lost - failing to live up to market
opinion. Another one lost at Hollywood Park in America - Gayego
(6/4).
His yard might not be firing on all cylinders. The market may have
simply over-estimated the quality of the short-price runners. But
the fact is that Suroor's short-priced horses are not living up to
their billing and, until the yard shows signs of recovering from the
mini-slump, it's worth considering going against the market and
opposing the short price runners from the yard.
Three ways to oppose horses...
When you spot a horse or horses you want to oppose (it could be the
next short-priced Godolphin runner or some other selection) there
are multiple options available to you:
You can oppose the horse by backing other runners to beat it.
You can oppose a horse by playing bookmaker and laying it on the
betting exchanges. In effect you are betting that it will lose. In
this scenario every other runner in the race is running for you. If
any of them beat the horse you are opposing then you win the
backer's stake.
You can use another option. You can oppose the horse on a market
that rewards you with more winnings the more 'right' you are about
the horse not winning - the Individual Race Index market offered on
most races each day by the spread betting firms.
Introducing the Individual Race Index...
This spread betting market revolves around the performance of
individual horses in individual races.
Horses are awarded points on the basis of their finishing position.
The point structure varies and depends how many runners are
contesting a race.
In races with 12 runners or less the point structure will be:
- 1st place = 50 points
- 2nd place = 25 points
- 3rd place = 10 points
- 4th place or worse = 0 points.
In races with more than 12 runners the point structure will be:
- 1st place = 50 points
- 2nd place = 30 points
- 3rd place = 20 points
- 4th place = 10 points
- 5th place or worse = 0 points.
In practice this is how it works...
BAGPIPE is running in the 2.45 - an 11 runner race - and the spread
firm have fixed the spread on Bagpipe at 17-20 points. No other
horse in the race is valued so highly. What this means in practice
is that the spread firm's market makers reckon the horse is good
enough to win.
I think the spread firm's market makers are over-valuing the horse.
I believe the horse will finish down the field. I 'sell' (oppose)
the horse at 17 on the Individual Race Index for £2.
Bagpipe subsequently proves me right, runs a clunker and finishes
last. I sold Bagpipe at 17. The horse scored zero points. I win £34
- which equates to 17 (the difference between the points Bagpipe
scored - 0 - and the price I sold her at - 17) x my £2 stake.
Had Bagpipe run better than I'd expected and finished 3rd she would
have scored 10 points. Not such a good result but I would still have
made a profit of £14. That's a 7 point win - the difference between
the number of points Bagpipe scored (10) and the price I sold her at
(17) multiplied by my £2 stake.
The Individual Race Index is a great option for maximizing returns
on horses you want to oppose. But there is a downside....
Spread betting offers an alternative way of betting to the
traditional bookmakers, the Tote and the exchanges. But it isn't for
the faint-hearted. When you place a bet with a bookie or the tote,
or when you get a bet matched on the exchanges, you know in advance
of the race being run exactly what your potential liabilities amount
to.
With spread betting your liability (or your returns) only becomes
apparent as the race unfolds.
What if Bagpipe had won?
Let's say I'd been wrong and Bagpipe had won the race and scored 50
points.
That would not have been quite such a good result for me. I chose to
'sell' (or oppose) Bagpipe at 17. Now I have to face up to a loss.
And it's only now that the race outcome has been determined that I
know what that loss amounts to. Its 33 points x my £2 stake. I'm £66
down.
The £66 is the difference between the points Bagpipe scored (50)
less the price I sold Bagpipe at (17) x my stake of £2.
Spread betting - as with any other form of betting - comes complete
with risk attached. On one hand it can offer exceptional returns
when you get it right. The more right you are the more you are
rewarded. However, spread betting can punish you when you get it
wrong. And the more wrong you get it, the heavier the punishment you
receive.
Spread betting - and all it's 'spread' 'buy' 'sell' terminology -
can appear complicated on first encounter. But it's really not. And
once you get your head around how the spread markets work it really
can offer another dimension to your race punting.
If you would like to find out more about spread betting, there's no
better place to start than the Sporting Index website...
It clearly explains how their bets work - including the fact that
you can lose more than your original stake. And I'd advise you check
out their excellent Training Centre after you have opened your
account.
Plus at the moment you can get £100 cash-back with every new
account.
Just click on the logo below to find out more...
Right now one or two of the spread markets are whetting my appetite.
I've taken a particular fancy to the Winning Distances market spread
firms offer for each meeting. I'm working on one or two approaches
to try and get an edge over the market makers. More on that
imminently.
Until next time, be lucky.
30th July 2010
Good afternoon, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus....
- What to make of King Torus....
- Ten years of winners - put this service to the test for free!
- Pointers for the Stewards' Cup....
What to make of King Torus....
King Torus won the Group 2 Veuve Clicquot Vintage Stakes at Goodwood
on Wednesday - coming away from the field at the end and scoring
comfortably by 6 lengths.
It was a visually impressive performance but the evidence provided
by the clock urges caution and suggests we shouldn't get too carried
away. This bare form may well turn out to flatter the colt.
On my speed figures Richard Hannon's 2-year-old rated 41 for his
performance earlier this week and was just a little way better than
par for juveniles that win at this 7 furlong trip. Every other
runner in the race produced a rating some way off the figure I'd
expect 2yo group horses to achieve. We have to ask whether King
Torus really beat anything on Wednesday.
Crown Prosecutor, race favourite with Kieran Fallon onboard, was
stepping up to 7f for the first time and it clearly didn't suit. He
finished distressed and we can expect him to drop back down to the
6f strip in keeping with his pedigree. Stentorian appears to need a
mile.
This was King Torus's 3rd win in 4 runs this term and his 2nd this
month having already scored a Group 2 success in the Superlative
Stakes at Newmarket's July meeting. The Goodwood performance was an
improvement on that effort - a race some judges believe King Torus
was lucky to win.
Supporters of the 2nd place horse that day, Ecliptic, will be
heartened by the King Torus win on Wednesday. At Newmarket Ecliptic
looked to have the race in the bag before hanging badly right in the
final furlong, conceding vital ground and ultimately making King
Torus's job easier than it ought to have been. Both finished almost
3 lengths ahead of the others.
With that experience under his belt we can expect Ecliptic to have
learned a little more about his job and to improve. And with King
Torus having franked that Newmarket form at Goodwood - regardless of
how the form ultimately works out - we can expect plenty of punters
to get behind Ecliptic next time out.
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Pointers for the Stewards' Cup....
For me the showpiece event of the Glorious Goodwood festival is
tomorrow afternoon's Stewards' Cup - 28 runners got to post for the
dash up the 6f strip.
Last year's 14/1 winner, Genki, heads the market this year. He's a
best price 7/1 to retain his title. Roger Charlton's runners in this
event certainly merit respect. In the last 10 years he's saddled 4
contestants and 2 of those have won.
That said if you're looking to build a case for opposing him then
age trends can form a strong plank of that argument. Genki is now 6-
years-old and, given the lessons of the last ten years, that puts
him at a disadvantage. 9 of the last 10 winners were aged either 4
or 5.
If you're looking for a feeder race that produces winning horses for
this event then look no further than the Wokingham run at Royal
Ascot. The Wokingham has produced 10 of the last 14 winners of the
Stewards' Cup. It makes no difference where a horse finished in the
Wokingham - most that subsequently went on to win the Goodwood event
finished nowhere.
Dandy Nicholls is ordinarily well represented in this race. Over the
last decade he's entered 4.5 runners per year. This year it's just 2
- and one of them is our old friend Striking Spirit (currently
available at 14/1) - a horse which has been on my hotlist since
running well in last year's renewal from the wrong side of the draw.
Striking Spirit has not managed to get his nose in front since then.
But he did finish 2nd in this year's Wokingham behind Laddies Poker
Two and was 2nd of 15 behind another old friend, Hamish McGonagall,
the time before that. He pitches up at Goodwood in just about the
best form of his career and the 6-week break since his last race
will suit him perfectly - he's proven in the past he can perform
first time up.
Tradition says you want to be drawn high. But things have been a
little more inconclusive in recent years and horses have won and run
well from all parts of the draw. My own preference is for my horse
to be low or high - but not in the middle where horses can end
up a little way adrift of a rail. That said the last 4 winners have
run from a middle position in the stalls.
This afternoon at 2.45 the 28-runner Rolf Group Stewards' Sprint is
run over course and distance and can offer pointers about any
prevailing bias in the draw.
Until next time, be lucky.
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