|
5th June 2009
Good afternoon, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus...
- Where the flat falls down against the jumps...
- Strong trends help create a Derby shortlist...
- Where the trends leave me...
Where the flat falls down against the jumps...
You'll often hear people complaining during the National Hunt
Season because every big fences and hurdles race that takes place
throughout the winter is both considered and presented by media and
press commentators as a preliminary event leading to the Cheltenham
and Aintree Festivals in March/April - rather than as an important
race in its own right.
But I'm not one of the complainers in this instance. The two
Festivals, a far as I'm concerned, are the Championship meetings
toward which the entire National Hunt season slowly builds.
Positioned towards the latter end of the jumps season, the
Festivals represent a natural climax to months of racing and ensure
that the whole jumps programme follows a coherent narrative that
punters can follow, engage with and understand.
The flat programme suffers in comparison. Blue Ribbon races are
dotted about the schedule. Before May is out the 'best' 3yo milers
has been crowned in the 1000 and 2000 Guineas. Royal Ascot and it's
week of Championship races has been and gone before the end of
June. Between the Guineas and Royal Ascot, on the first Saturday in
June, the 3yo middle distance king and queen are crowned in the
Derby and the Oaks respectively.
Of course, the Investec Derby will be contested at Epsom Downs on
Saturday afternoon. A punter only has to try to make sense of the
Derby for a few moments before another big difference between Flat
and Jumps racing smacks you in the kisser like so much wet fish -
there's not much to go on. The horses are only 3yos, lightly raced
and unexposed. For the average punter it's hard to conclude
anything hard and fast about them at all.
Compare this with the big jumps races where the runners have been
around for years - giving punters ample opportunity to get to grips
with them as individuals, establish their preferences, recognize
their patterns and identify when they should or should not be bet.
The 2yo and 3yo programmes on the flat seldom get much of my
attention. The racing just doesn't suit my profiling or other
preferred selection methods. Nevertheless, profiling is not always
king. When it comes to the Derby we can instead make use of some
strong historical trends to construct a shortlist of probables.
Strong trends point towards the Derby probables...
There are all manner of trends you can look at - either
individually or in combination. They act as a decent guide in a
race like the Derby - enabling you to look at how each participant
measures up against the general profile of previous winners and
then take a view.
Recent form trends, for example, look at how previous winners of
the Derby performed in the period leading up to the Epsom meeting.
Looking at this data can be instructive. Of the last ten winners of
the Derby:
- All had run once or twice during current season
- All had finished in the first 2 on all starts during current
season
- All had registered an RPR of at least 115 last time out
- All had been on the racecourse during the last 30 days
- 80% won last time out (the exceptions were 2nd in the
Guineas)
- 80% had won over 1m 2f (the exceptions were 2nd in Guineas)
- 60% had won a G1 as a 2yo (the remainder hadn't previously
run in a G1 race)
Trial race trends over the last decade are also instructive:
-
Bear in mind two races run last year, when tomorrow's Derby
runners were 2yos - the Racing Post Trophy (3 winners from 6 Derby
runners) and the Dewhurst (2 winners and 1 place from 3 runners).
This year those respective races were won by Crowded House which
runs tomorrow and Intense Focus which doesn't.
-
The Dante is a race to note. From 9 Derby runners over the
last ten years 3 won and 3 placed. Going back a bit further,
Shahrastani, Reference Point and Erhaab also won at the Knavesmire
before their Derby triumphs. This year's Dante was won by Black
Bear Island.
-
The Derrinstown Derby Trial is another race to note -
producing the 3 Derby winners and 3 places from 7 runners over the
last decade. This year's Derrinstown Derby Trial was won by Fame
and Glory.
-
Chester's Dee Stakes has produced 2 Derby winners from 5
runners. This is a positive for South Easter.
-
No 2000 Guineas' winner has won the Derby since Nashwan in
1989. It takes an exceptional young horse to win the Guineas over
1m and then follow up over 1m4f at Epsom just a few weeks later.
New Approach won last year's Derby after finishing 2nd in the
Guineas. Guineas runners in this years Derby are Sea The Stars, Gan
Amhras and Rip Van Winkle.
Market trends are another area that provides instruction:
- 100% of the last 10 winners were in the first 4 in the
betting.
- 100% were priced at 7/1 or lower.
- Favourites have won 4 of the last 10 renewals.
- In the last thirty years, only one horse - High Rise - has
won the Derby at odds exceeding 14-1.
Where the trends lead me...
That last trend is strong. I use it as the starting point in my
field splitting and discard all runners priced above 14/1.
Next I'm looking at that earlier stat which told us all the last
ten winner of the Derby had registered an RPR of at least 115 last
time out.
After putting the runners through those filters, I'm left with 5
runners - Black Bear Island, Fame and Glory, Gan Amhras, Rip Van
Winkle and Sea The Stars. The latter three of these ran in the
Guineas. Though New Approach came out of the Guineas to win the
Derby last year, history is littered with Guineas winners and
placed horses which struggled at Epsom despite being highly
fancied.
Given that historical signpost I'm happy to side with two of the
O'Brien horses, Black Bear Island (with Ryan Moore the interesting
booking onboard) and Fame and Glory. At 17/2 and 4/1 with the firms
respectively, or 9.2 and 5.6 on Betfair, I'll be backing them both
to win and hoping one of them has been placed in the right part of
the race to prevail.
That's how it looks from here.
Until next time, be lucky.
12th June 2009
Good afternoon, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus...
- Where my Royal Ascot interests will lie...
- Time... A side-effect of specialization...
- Short prices and lay opportunities at Royal Ascot...
- A Royal Ascot resource...
Where my Royal Ascot interests will lie...
It's the time of year when the mind turns to Royal Ascot - a 5-day
meeting of the highest quality beginning on Tuesday 16th June.
There are 17 Group races spread over the meeting - 6 of those Group
1s - and over £3.5 million in prize money up for grabs.
It might sound like I'm planning to get heavily involved. But
that's not the case. The Group and Listed races (in addition to the
races for 2-year-olds and those limited to 3-year olds) aren't
suited to my ways of working. I prefer to get involved in races
contested by older horses with established patterns of form I can
analyse, interpret and base decisions on.
Don't get me wrong. I'm a racing fan as well as a punter - and I'm
looking forward to the big races. But, aside from the possibility
of a short-priced lay in one of the biggest races, I'll be steering
clear of betting in the premier events and instead focusing my
efforts on the Handicap races for older horses with plenty of track
experience and a form trail I can get my teeth into.
-
On the Tuesday my focus will be on the 2m4f Ascot Stakes
Handicap, a Class 2 event for horses aged 4yo+ and rated 0-95 by
the official handicapper. 2m4f is an extreme distance on the flat -
more akin to jump racing. And that's an angle it pays to bear in
mind. National Hunt trainers, more used to working with animals at
this kind of distance, have fared well in this race - Martin Pipe
(twice), Sue Smith, P R Webber, Tony Martin and Dermot Weld have
all saddled the winner in recent years.
-
On the Wednesday my attention will turn to the Royal Hunt Cup
(Heritage Handicap) a Class 2 race over a mile for horses aged
3yo+. This is a very competitive race and it pays to look for
horses with 'live' chances at decent prices. Favourites have a poor
record in the event - none have won in the last 10 years. Nine of
the last 10 winners went off at 8/1 or bigger - 6 at double-figure
odds.
-
On Friday I'll be taking an interest in the Wolferton Handicap
(Listed Race), a Class 1 race run over 1m2f and contested
by horses aged 4yo+ and rated 0-110. Then there's the Class 2
Buckingham Palace Stakes (Heritage Handicap) over 7f for 3yo+
horses rated 0-105.
-
On Saturday, the final day of the meeting, there's the
Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap), a Class 2 event over 6f for
3yo+ rated 0-110. Though 3 favourites have won this in the last 10
years, I'm still of the belief that the Wokingham is another event
where it pays to look for 'live' horses at bigger prices. The other
7 winners all went in at double figure prices. Another detail to
note is that the race hasn't been won by a 3yo since 1987.
-
On the Saturday there's also the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes
(Heritage Handicap), another Class 2 event. This time over 1m4f for
3yo+ horses rated 0-105.
Time... A side-effect of specialisation...
Because I'm prepared to specialize and focus the lion's share of my
attention on specific areas of the fixture list, I know in advance
what my Royal Ascot itinerary consists of. And because I'm thinking
ahead I know exactly which horses I need to analyse and come to
some conclusion about between now and race day. And I can make the
time to do it.
The longer you have to study, the better chance you have of
identifying nuances and anomalies that help you produce a betting
angle. Over the long term, punters whose selections rely on a quick
scan of the newspaper in the moments leading up to the race
generally get what their poor levels of preparation deserve - a
financial mauling.
Between now and the beginning of the meeting I'll be studying the
runners in my races and making some sense of what conditions and
circumstances they need to produce of their best. Some will be
suited to Ascot. Others won't. Some will need specific types of
ground underfoot. Some will need the blistering pace of a big
field. Others will prefer the more sedate gallop a smaller field
produces. It's up to me to figure out which horses have conditions
in their favour.
Short-priced fancies frequently fail...
My methods are also good highlighting those horses that will not
have conditions in their favour. When one of these is a short-
priced runner then I've identified a Lay opportunity. I'd expect to
find one or two of these over the course of the meeting. Recent
history shows us that Royal Ascot produces plenty of short priced
runners who fail to live up to the market assessment of their
chances.
Since 2003 173 runners have gone off at Royal Ascot priced at 4/1
or less. Of these 131 failed to win. Had you laid them all to a £1
level stake you'd be £32.87 in front. To a £100 level stake that's
a profit of £3287.00.
At 3/1 or under there have been 97 runners with 67 of them failing
to win and producing a £13.54 profit for layers to a £1 level
stake. Shorten the price filter to 2/1 and under and profits dip
substantially. 49 runners have produced 29 losers but produced only
a meager profit for layers of £3.54 to a level £1 stake.
4/1 is my cut off price at Royal Ascot - and I don't lay them
blindly. I discriminate - only laying when my own analysis of a
short-priced horse suggests that, when measured against its past
performances, prevailing conditions or circumstances are
sufficiently against it.
A really useful Royal Ascot resource...
Before I sign off I should tell you about a really useful resource for punters
preparing for Royal Ascot. It's Gavin Priestley's Trends Guide for Royal
Ascot - covering every single race (30 in all) at the meeting.
The guide covers previous race trends, trainer trends, pace
analysis, key race trial analysis, average age and weight of past
winners and instructive profiles of this year's leading contenders
- all laid out in really user-friendly sections and tables.
During the meeting there will be a daily service meaning you get
briefed on every race with all the very latest figures, stats,
trends and race analysis.
It's a very good service well worth a look if you're looking for
good angles for Royal Ascot. As always check it out for yourself.
There's a lot more information about the service here.
Until next time, be lucky.
19th June 2009
Good afternoon, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus...
- Yeats takes his place amongst the greats...
- Key trends for today's Royal Ascot races...
- Something big is in the pipeline...
Yeats takes his place amongst the greats...
The showpiece Royal Ascot meeting gallops relentlessly towards
Saturday's conclusion. The highlight thus far must be yesterday's
renewal of the Group 1 Gold Cup and the march of Yeats into the
history books with his fourth successive win in the race.
The three market leaders led the field home - meaning there were no
surprises. Geordieland finished 3rd meaning that yesterday was the
4th time from 4 goes that Jamie Osborne's charge has come up
against Yeats in this race and been beaten. It's hard to envisage
Geordieland going one better next year should Yeats be in the race.
Geordieland is the same age as Yeats (8 this year and 9 next year)
and so is not open to any tremendous improvement that might
overcome the gulf in talent that exists between the two horses.
If you're looking for an improver from this year's race to take
into next year's then second place Patkai is the obvious candidate.
Michael Stoute's charge could not make an impression on Yeats in
the final furlong yesterday. But at just 4 years-old Patkai is open
to improvement. With another year of maturity and strengthening
under his saddlecloth, Patkai might go one better and end up in the
winner's enclosure next year.
It's unclear whether or not Yeats will try for a fifth Gold Cup at
next year's Royal Ascot meeting. Owner of the horse, John Magnier,
wasn't sure. Trainer Aidan O'Brien seems opposed. He told
reporters, 'I don't think so. I think he's so unique I'd be afraid
to race him after this.'
Until the champ's plans are confirmed, I'd steer clear of the 5/1
available about him to do the five-timer next year. It might look
like a tempting price given that Yeats has gone off at 8/13, 11/8
and 6/4 in his last three Gold Cups. But given that the horse owes
nobody a penny and is reported as being more difficult to work with
as time goes by, it wouldn't surprise me if connections choose to
go out right at the very top and cash in on the horse's bloodstock
value.
And spanks the bookies backsides to boot...
Call me nasty and vindictive but I do like to see the bookmakers
take a financial kicking. And that was another reason to smile
yesterday when Yeats went in.
For 3 years Yeats has been the ultimate in Royal Ascot bankers for
plenty of punters - and bookmakers are counting the costs again
this morning. Industry-wide losses on Yeats yesterday are reported
to run to £10 million - hitting bookies both large and small where
it hurts. A Ladbrokes representative says, 'Yeats has cost the
bookies more money than any horse in Royal Ascot history.' Yeats is
a grand horse.
Up until end of racing on Thursday (Day 3) the Royal Ascot meeting
has once again thrown up plenty of short-priced losers for the
layers to cheer. But, as is usually the case, it doesn't pay to lay
all short-priced runners indiscriminately. So far 21 runners have
been sent off at odds of 4/1 or shorter (my own personal cut-off
price for lays). Of these 14 have lost and provided layers with a
profit. The other 7 won.
Twice as many losing short-priced horses as winning short-priced
horses might suggest that the indiscriminate layers are in profit -
but that's not the case. Of the short-priced horses which won only
one was an odds on shot, the others (10/3, 11/4, 7/4, 4/1, 4/1 and
6/4) hit layers with liabilities that wipe out profits from winning
lays.
The trick at Royal Ascot is to only lay horses when you feel sure
you've identified a genuine weakness in them. Blind, indiscriminate
laying will get you into trouble. There's no shortage of horses
beaten at short-prices at Royal Ascot - year on year. Being patient
and identifying just 3 or 4 of these over the course of the meeting
will leave you in a better place than playing as if every single
short-price runner is a certainty to get beat.
Key trends underpinning today's races...
Many of you will be preparing for another day's top quality racing
- maybe looking at the form, watching the build-up or just
gathering your thoughts. Some of you will be at work - perhaps
following the action on your desktop.
For those of you who are still considering or looking for your bets
here are some at-a-glance statistics and pointers you may find
useful when looking at the runners and the riders in today's races:
Albany Stakes G3 (2.30)
- 100% of the 7 winners of this race had not raced more than
twice during the current season.
- 80% had not won over 6 furlongs.
King Edward VII Stakes G2 (3.05)
- 90% of the last 10 winners had not previously won at the 1m4f
trip.
- 90% had won during the current season at distances in of 9f+.
- 80% came from the first 3 in the market.
Coronation Stakes G1 (3.45)
- 90% of the last 10 winners had earlier run in one of European
1000 Guineas races.
Wolferton Handicap Listed (4.20)
- 90% of the last 10 winners had run twice or less during the
current season.
- 90% were beaten on the latest start.
- 70% were aged 4.
- 70% had won at distances between 9f and 11f.
Queen's Vase G3 (4.55)
- 90% of the last 10 winners had won earlier in the season.
- 80% had won over 12f or longer.
Buckingham Palace Stakes Handicap (5.30)
- 6 of the 7 winners of this race had won over the specialist
7f distance.
Find the best odds on all today's Ascot races here:
http://odds.sportsxtra.co.uk/horse-racing/2009-06-19/ascot/
Something big is in the pipeline...
For the last few months I've had my head down because I've been
working on something that's always been a bit of a dream. In the
next few weeks that dream is going to become a reality - and I
think serious racing punters like you are going to like what I've
been up to.
Anybody who has spent any time around me over the last few years
will tell you that I'm not wholly impressed with the quality of
information and advice the racing punter has available to him.
Sure, there are lots of sites, publications and services providing
different levels of raw data or straightforward tipping services.
But where does the racing punter go when he wants to access an
ongoing stream of racing angles that produce profit, methods that
consistently find winners or information and data that isn't
available to the mass of punters?
Until now there really hasn't been anywhere to go. The racing press
isn't interested in giving punters the tools and skills they need
to become better and more profitable punters. Instead, 99% of
services, sites and publications want to hang on to the tools, the
blueprints, the angles and the methods. They only want to supply
punters with the finished product - be it a tip, a recommendation
or a glorified and bare-bones summary of individual runners.
It's high time for something different... something unique....
something that turns this situation on its head... something that
delivers not only profit but also insight and instruction.
Tipsters like to give a man a fish. They like to feed their punters
one day at a time. And that works for plenty of punters (or doesn't
depending on the tipster). I'm more of a believer in teaching a
punter how to fish. That way he can move towards feeding himself in
the weeks and years ahead.
I can't say too much more right now. But I wanted to give you a
heads up. Keep your eye on your HRF emails. What I've been working
on is still a couple of weeks from completion. But, when it's ready
to be unveiled, are going to be the first to hear all about it.
Like I say, I think you're going to like what I've been up to.
Until next time, be lucky.
24th June 2009
Good afternoon, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus...
- Nuggets of gold in 5 minutes flat...
- How to profit from Michael Stoute...
- The sweet spots in the William Haggas string...
- The right angles for Chapple-Hyam runners...
A guide rather than gospel...
When it comes to my race betting activities very little makes me
happier than being in possession of a set of statistics I believe
point towards future winners and future profits.
I invest an enormous - some would say ludicrous - amount of time
poring over racing data, anlaysing statistics and looking for
patterns or pointers I can use to inform my bet selections. It
doesn't always come off. I am fallible. Often miserably so. So too
are the 'numbers'.
Fact is that numbers can only tell you so much. Horses are not
machines and they have scant respect for calculations, percentages,
ratios, rates and all the rest of it. Nor can the numbers and other
data predict that a horse is having an off day, suffering from a
virus or the effects of a turbulent trip to the course.
Numbers offer the punter a retrospective guide. They are not to be
taken as gospel. That said the very best betting experiences come
when what the numbers strongly suggest actually comes to pass on
the racecourse.
In these instances you've done the work, taken a view, backed it
with hard cash, seen your judgement validated and reaped the
reward. It doesn't get any better. Work hard enough, get it right
just often enough and you can turn a profit long term on your race-
betting.
Anybody can get a decent steer by giving some attention to the
numbers. Statistical analysis doesn't have to involve super-
computers, a team of eggheads or mathematical flair. Nor do you
need to take a fortnight off work to get the job done. A few
minutes spent studying a trainer, for example, can deliver the
punting equivalent of pure gold.
Nuggets of gold in 5 minutes flat...
I know quite a few of you will recall my HRF issue at the end of
April when I reported on the fruits of some quick and basic
research and analysis I'd just performed. I highlighted Clive Cox
and his string - which showed all the statistical signs of running
into form.
Up to that point Cox had saddled 11 winners from 44 runners at a
strike rate of 25% - producing a £37.45 profit for punters to a £1
level stake. Analysis of his 14-day form stats suggested his string
was really firing and, on the basis of the numbers, I recommended
keeping an eye on Cox's runners. The numbers proved to be a good
guide. Cox has subsequently produced a further 16 winners from 86
runners at a profit of £50.38.
I also recommended taking note of runners trained by Richard Fahey
- another handler with 'numbers' that suggested his string was on
the boil. At the time he'd saddled 28 winners from 164 runners and
produced a profit of £79.39 to a £1 level stake. Once again, the
numbers were bang on the money. Fahey has sent out another 46
winners from 266 runners producing a profit of £51.57 to a £1 level
stake.
Fahey has a big string and nobody would want to back all his
runners blindly. On the basis of the numbers I suggested focusing
on Paul Hanagan's rides - and for the season to date he's produced
a profit of £113.02 to a £1 level stake when riding for Fahey.
This is not to crow. Far from it. I revisit the advice at the end
of April merely to illustrate that a few minutes spent looking at
the statistics can steer just about any punter - no matter how
inexperienced - to sources of upcoming and profitable winners.
The right angle when approaching Stoute runners...
Michael Stoute is on fire at the moment. From 146 runners this
season 39 have been first past the post - at a staggering strike
rate of 27%. But you don't want to be backing Stoute's runners
blindly. If you'd backed all his runners this season to a £1 stake
you would be £16.51 out of pocket.
Closer inspection of the statistics, however, enables us to
identify a specific pool of his horses which are winning frequently
AND producing that all-important profit. Stoute has had 39 runners
aged 4 or older this season - 14 of them have won at a strike rate
of 36%. Backing these runners blindly would have you £14.11 in
profit. Right now the angle which pays with Stoute is to avoid his
younger runners and latch onto his older ones.
You might also take note of his runners on the All-Weather. From 8
runners he's had 3 winners, 3 seconds and 2 thirds.
Sweet spots in the William Haggas string...
William Haggas is another trainer in good form. From 126 runners
he's produced 29 winners at a strike rate of 23%. Backing blindly
to a £1 stake you'd be £12.79 up. But a quick look at the
statistics can help us condense his runners of interest and improve
on those returns:
-
Focus on the handler's 3yo runners. He's sent out 81 this
season - 19 have won and produced a profit of £25.38 to a £1 level
stake.
-
His 7f-8f horses appear to be the ones doing most of the good
business. From 63 runners over these distances 13 have won at a
strike rate of 21% and produced a profit of £25.85.
-
It's significant when Haggas books Ryan Moore. He's done it 5
times so far this season and Moore has piloted 4 of those runners
into the winner's enclosure. If you'd backed these rides blindly to
a £1 stake you'd be £11.00 in front.
The right angles for Chapple-Hyam runners...
Peter Chapple-Hyam is having a decent season. With 20 winners from
92 runners he's operating at a strike rate of 22%. What's more, if
you'd backed his runners blindly you'd be up to the tune of £33.10
to a £1 stake. But the numbers can help us focus our attention and
get even better returns:
-
Focus on 3yo runners - 18 of this season's 20 winners are
from this age group. Where older horses are concerned the winning
strike drops off significantly.
-
Focus on runners in maiden races. The yard has produced 13
winners from 34 runners in maidens at a strike rate of 38% and a
profit to a £1 stake of £50.77. Compare this with runners in
handicap races where from the same number of runners the yard has
produced only 6 winners at 18% and a meager £4.50 profit.
Until next time, be lucky.
|
