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4th June 2010
Good afternoon, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus....
- Two classic days of racing....
- How to play the draw over sprint trips....
- What an Oaks winner looks like....
Two classic days of racing....
The 2-day Classic meeting at Epsom kicks off today at 1.40pm.
The highlight on today's card is the Group 1 Oaks over 1m4f (the
fillies' equivalent of the Derby) at 4.05 - but that's not all we
have to look forward to this afternoon. We've also got the Group 1
Coronation Cup at 2.45 - also over 1m4f but for older horses. And
we've got the Group 3 Diomed Stakes to kick things off at 1.40 - a
race over the extended mile for horses 3yo+.
Tomorrow the Group 1 Derby takes centre stage at 4.00 - supported
by the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes for fillies and mares over
the extended mile at 2.40 and some competitive handicaps.
Time is short and I want to get straight into the meat of today's
issue and give you a few pointers designed to help you twist a
profit out of the next 48-hours. So, onward....
How to play the draw in sprints....
Over the course of the 2-day meeting there will be 5 races over the
shorter distances - 5f and 6f. In races like these, where track
position impacts so much on the ultimate outcome of the race, you
are at a distinct advantage when you know which horses have the
plum stalls.
On the 5f straight - and Epsom is the fastest 5f strip in the World
- there's just the one race. It's the Investec Entrepreneurial
Class Dash, a Class 2 Heritage Handicap, run at 3.15 tomorrow. It's
the biggest 5f field you will see at Epsom this year - 19 runners
are set to go to post.
There's only been 5 big-field races over the minimum trip at Epsom
in the last 5 years - all of them a previous renewal of this race.
All were won by horses in stall 8 or higher. 3 were won by horses
running out of the really high-number boxes - 18/18, 15/18 and
17/20. 31 horses have run out of stalls 1 to 7 in big fields over 5
furlongs at Epsom - and none of them have won. The obvious message
is to focus on the highest parts of the draw where the advantage
lies and identify horse/horses best able to take advantage.
On the 6f - going left-handed round a single bend. The interesting
event here is the 17 runner Class 2 Distinctive Handicap which
closes tomorrow afternoon's card at 5.20.
The evidence is less conclusive. Since 2005 there have been four
races over 6f furlongs with this kind of size field - and they've
been won by horses coming from all over the draw - 17/16, 9/16,
5/17 and 3/15.
Looking at the horses which finished immediately behind the winners
does offer a slightly clearer picture. In addition to the 2
winners who managed the feat only 3 of the other 14 winners and
close-up finishers came from the top-half of the draw. The
percentage call is to focus your attention on the bottom half of
the draw from which most competitive runners have come.
What an Oaks winner looks like....
Big races tend to be won year-on-year by similar types of horses -
animals with a shared general set of attributes, characteristics
and achievements.
By studying the statistical make-up of a typical past Oaks winner
we can learn a great deal about the type of horse we are looking
for to win this afternoon's renewal.
Over the past couple of days I've been doing just that - studying
the last 10 winners of the Oaks. Based on that statistical
analysis, this afternoon's winner will measure up very closely to
the following profile:
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Finished 1st or 2nd last time out - meeting the criterion set
by 9 out of 10 recent winners.
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Achieved best Racing Post Rating last time out - a standard
set by all of the last 10 winners.
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Has raced at least twice - another standard set by all of the
last 10 winners.
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Has not raced more than 6 times - none of the last 10 winners
had raced more than half a dozen times.
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Has not raced more than twice this season - another stat to
which all the last 10 winners conform.
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Possessed sufficient speed to win over a mile - all 10
previous winners conformed.
Apply this profile to today's field - allowing for wiggle room
where you think it's appropriate - and you'll get the field down to
a manageable few. Of those still of interest to me after running
the field through the suggested filters, I like the look of Henry
Cecil's Timepiece - and that's where my money will be. But that's
just me... and you might see the picture differently.
Just a quick word on the draw in the Oaks. A lot of pundits are
talking about a low draw being a possible advantage. I don't see it
that way. Six of the last 10 winners were drawn halfway or bigger.
5 of the 6 recent renewals of the Oaks contested by 14 or more
runners (as is the case today) were won by a horse drawn halfway or
higher.
Until next time, be lucky.
9th June 2010
Good afternoon, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus....
- Hats off to Hamish....
- Another sprinter ready to win....
- How I will be making my World Cup Profits....
- Winning bets the rest don't latch onto....
Hats off to Hamish....
I love it when a plan comes together - especially one that puts a
few purple sheets in the old wallet.
Regular readers will recall that back toward the end of April I
nominated Hamish McGonagall as a winner waiting to happen following
his performance at Beverley. He'd finished 3rd of 16 runners
despite being disadvantaged by a low draw. At the time I said:
'Giving weight to the other horses finishing around him he was only
beaten 3 lengths by the winner. Given a double-figure draw he might
well have improved on his performance - and it's my view that Tim
Easterby's 5-year-old is better than the bare form suggests.
The Beverley race was Hamish McGonagall's first appearance on the
race track for 172 days and we can expect him to come on for it.
The horse has finished 1st or 2nd in big field sprints 10 times in
his career to date - and 9 of those finishes have been achieved
when running off a break of 30 days or less. If he's out pretty
quickly then he could well be a betting proposition.'
On 5th May he was 2nd at Chester. A couple of weeks later he was
back out at York - winning a 16 runner event at 7/2 after opening
bigger in the morning. And on Saturday at Epsom his streak of fine
form continued with a win in a 15 runner event at 5/1 - beating
Striking Spirit (a horse we were very interested in last year -
along with Brave Prospector - following their respective runs in
the Stewards Cup at Goodwood).
I know a few of you made a note of Hamish McGonagall when I
highlighted his prospects - and I hope there's plenty more of you
out there who've made a few points of profits on the horse in the
last few weeks.
I wouldn't abandon him just yet either. He's gone up in the ratings
from 92 to 99 but there's no sign that his upward curve is tapering
off. His last two runs have seen the 5-year-old produce his best
speed figures to date. Until he shows signs of going off the boil
and requiring a break, I would continue to take a keen interest in
his upcoming engagements. He has no entries at this point in time.
Another sprinter ready to win....
Keep a close eye on any entries made for the minimum distance
sprinter, Masta Plasta.
The Dandy Nicholls 7-year-old sprinter has impressed me on his last
3 runs. He was 3rd in the race that Hamish McGonagall won at York.
A week later he was 2nd of 5 at Beverley. On Saturday at Epsom he
was 5th of 16 - despite being disadvantaged by the draw. The 4
horses that finished in front of him - and the 3 directly behind
him - all ran out of stall 9 or higher.
Masta Plasta was also giving away weight all round - but still
managed to finish close up and beat his 4 stable mates in the race
to the line.
Epsom's 5f strip is the quickest minimum distance strip in the
World. On Saturday the whole course was riding very fast -
evidenced by plenty of winning times inside the standard for course
and distance. Masta Plasta struggled a little for pace but finished
the race off very well - albeit too late to break into the places.
Like Hamish McGonagall, Masta Plasta has put together an impressive
and consistent series of speed figures in the last few weeks. He's
evidently in form and he's capable of putting in a big run and when
conditions and circumstances are against him.
If he gets the rub of the green in an upcoming race then I take him
to take one of these big field events at some point - and who
better to place him with to win than the sprint master, Dandy
Nicholls?
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Ideally, you want Masta Plasta over 5f on ground that
contains the word firm - that's where his most impressive speed
figures have been achieved.
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I'd also want to be backing him on a straight 5f course - all
his 5 wins have come on straight courses. He's 0/2 on right-handed
courses. I wouldn't want to be backing him going left - he's gone
left over 5f and 6f on 7 occasions and never looked remotely like
troubling the scorer.
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York appears to suit. He's won twice there - one of them a
Group race back in 2005. The Curragh in Ireland has also been a
happy hunting ground for the horse - he's had a win and a 2nd place
finish there.
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This lad needs pace. Small fields do not suit. He's been
tried in fields with less than 9 runners on 11 occasions and drawn
a complete blank.
How I'll be making my World Cup profits....
Back Germany, Italy, Denmark and Serbia in the World Cup Outright
market on the betting exchanges. As the tournament progresses
expect the prices on each of these teams to contract. When they do
you should lay them, guarantee yourself some free bets to nothing,
liquidate your stake and reinvest... and so on.
Also look to play turnarounds and over-reactions in the 90 minute
market of individual matches.
That's the Nick Pullen approach to twisting a decent profit out of
the next 4 weeks. It's the best football betting advice this racing
man can give you.
But if you really want to attack the World Cup betting market from
a position of strength - with a distinct edge over the wider market
- then you have to do some serious legwork quickly. Either that or
get some kind soul to do it for you.
Where football is concerned I prefer the latter option... I want
someone to do the donkey work of compiling all the relevant stats,
crunching all the numbers, making all the calculations, doing all
the basic analysis and preparing the results in a format I can
access at will and scrutinise at my leisure to find the best bets
in any market on any match at the World Cup....
Basically I'm looking for quality stats-based information that can
tell me - with certainty - proven facts that other punters are
guessing at or establishing on the basis of 'gut instinct'.
For example, I want the kind of service that can tell me - at a
glance - which teams I should be backing to rack up plenty of
points in the bookings market based on the evidence of previous
games.
As it happens I know the answer to that question - the teams you
want to be focusing on where red and yellow cards are concerned are
Serbia and Slovenia. How do I know? Easy. I signed up for the World
Cup Profit Service World Cup Profit Service .
Winning bets the rest don't latch onto....
The service has been set up by and is being conducted by my good
friend, Matt Nesbitt. If you've ever used either his Premier League
or Champions League betting advisory services then Matt will need
no introduction whatsoever.
If you don't know Matt then it will help to tell you that both the
above-mentioned services provided selections with a 73% strike-rate
this season - and produced fantastic profits for punters. And
that's the 4th profitable year in succession.
I expect a similarly profitable World Cup because I know how hard
he works and I've already had access to and I'm actively using the
World Cup Profit Service website. Check it out yourself. You can
access all the stats, analysis, advice and recommendations Matt
will be providing for the entire 1st phase of the tournament -
completely risk-free thanks to a money-back guarantee.
You can sign up right now and verify what I'm saying about the
quality of the stats and how easily you can transform those stats
into winning bets that the rest of the market simply aren't
latching onto.
When you do sign up for a look-see you won't be risking a penny,
there's no obligation and you'll also get a FREE report - yours to
keep whether you decide to use Matt's service or not - outlining
the ONLY 7 bets you need to place this summer.
It's the service most of my World Cup bets will be based on. But
that's just me. You must check it out for yourself. See what you
think.
Until next time, be lucky.
18th June 2010
Good afternoon, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus....
- The lowdown on playing Michael Jarvis....
Jarvis excels with 3-year-olds....
It's been a good couple of years for Michael Jarvis and his yard.
In 2008 his 493 runners produced 108 winners at a strike rate of
21.9%. He followed that performance up in 2009 with a win percentage
of 19.5% for that 12-month period.
Six months into this year and Jarvis is riding high with 35 winners
from his 125 runners to date. That's a strike rate of 28% and shows
a profit of 16 points for level stakes backers.
The first thing that's noticeable when you scrutinise the Jarvis
record is his performance with 3-year-old horses. Since the
beginning of 2008, Jarvis has saddled 219 winners - 137 of those
winners (62.5%) were 3-year-olds. The 3-year-old runners also
account for 104 (47.4%) of his 219 (56%) 2nd place finishes and 71
of his 127 3rd place finishers.
Playing the sweet spots...
Clearly, if you're looking to narrow your focus on Jarvis runners to
the profitable sweet spots then concentrating on his 3-year-old
runners is one avenue of exploration. This year is certainly panning
out to pattern. 21 of the 35 Jarvis winners this term have been 3-
year-olds. Of his 82 3-year-old runners to date this term 50 of them
have finished in the 1st three.
As you know I'm not a big backer of race favourites. But where
Jarvis and his 3-year-old runners are is then anybody would be
prepared to think again. 28 Jarvis 3-year-olds have been sent off
favourite by the market this term - 15 won and backing all
qualifiers to levels takes would leave you holding a 12.8 point
profit.
June and July are particularly good months for following the Jarvis
3-year-olds in non-handicap events. The last 65 3-year-old non-
handicappers to run for Jarvis in either June or July have produced
21 winners and 32 points of profit for punters.
If you wanted a micro-system for making a profit out of Jarvis then
try this one: back all his 3-year-old runners at Haydock, Newbury,
Kempton (AW), Yarmouth and Nottingham. These are the courses where
Jarvis has excelled most with his 3-year-olds over the last 5 years.
Following this system since the beginning of 2005 would have
produced 75 winners from 270 bets at a strike rate of 27.7%. Profits
to a level stake amount to just over 100 points.
A sweet ride provider for the jocks....
Jarvis will is one of those trainers who appears to be able to
produce winning horses no matter who is onboard them.
Since the beginning of 2008 7 jockeys have taken 15 or more rides
for the Jarvis yard - and all 7 have been on sufficiently well-
prepared horses to boast a strike of 20%+ for the yard.
That said, Phillip Robinson is the yard's number one pilot and
Jarvis will be delighted with his progress since getting back into
the saddle following an injury-delayed start to the season.
Robinson's 40 rides to date have produced 12 winners at 30% - and
punters who kept the faith to level stakes are 18.5 points to the
good.
Neil Callan remains in favour with Jarvis. He's been handed 31
opportunities to date this term and has won on 10 - producing a
profit of 10 points. Frankie Dettori has also been a significant
booking this year - his 15 rides for Jarvis producing 6 winners.
Jarvis knows how to tune them up....
You must never be afraid of betting a Jarvis 3-year-old first-time-
up off a break. The figures tell us that Jarvis is something of a
master when it comes to preparing his young horses to compete for
prizes without a racecourse blow beforehand.
Since 2005 Jarvis has sent 188 runners to the track off 100 days
away from the track or more. 52 won and produced a profit of 65
points to level stakes.
In fact Jarvis can bring his three-year-olds back profitably from
any break in excess of 6 weeks or 42 days. 311 of his runners over
the last 5 years went to the course of a 6-week break or longer - 80
won and produced a level stakes profit of 89 points.
Hopefully there are a few pointers of interest there that will help
you find a way to play Jarvis and his string for profit in the
months ahead.
Until next time, be lucky.
25th June 2010
Good afternoon, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus....
- Pointers for the Northumberland Plate....
- A disgraceful deal at Coral....
Pointers for the Northumberland Plate....
The big race this weekend is the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle.
It's a Class 2 handicap for horses 3yo+ and is run over 2 miles. The
going is currently good to firm and 21 runners are set to go to
post.
It's a big field. But there are various trends and statistics we can
work with to reduce the field to a manageable group - consisting of
those horses which most closely fit the profile of recent winners
and which enjoy most advantage.
It's well worth the effort. Favourites don't do well traditionally -
just one has won the race in the last decade - and backing bigger
priced horses has met with considerable reward. The market sent 5 of
the last 6 winners off at prices between 14/1 and 33/1. Seven of the
last 10 were priced up at 12/1 or higher.
For punters who like to back - win, place or e/w - at big prices
then this is an ideal race. Here are some methods you can use -
individually or in conjunction with one another - to split the field
and identify those runners which most closely match the strongest
trends.
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Take a fresh approach - this race comes very hard on the heels
of Royal Ascot. Recent renewals have favoured horses which swerved
that meeting. Seven days is very little time in which to recover
from a hard race over the Ascot 2 mile trip and 7 of the last 10
winners confirmed the value of arriving at Newcastle fresh.
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On the scales - 2 miles is a stamina sapping trip on the flat
and a big field pace is sure to add to the challenge. It shouldn't
surprise us then that weight - or, more accurately, lack of weight -
has proven significant in recent times. The heavier burdened horses
have struggled. Of the last 10 winners of the Northumberland Plate 9
carried 8-11 or less - and this is true for each of the last 7
winners.
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Identify horses on the upgrade - improving sorts have fared
well in this race over the last decade. Seven of the last 10 winners
had posted a career high Racing Post Rating in their final prep runs
before turning out at Newcastle.
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Staying evidence - look for horses which have already
demonstrated they can handle the stamina demands of races at longer
trips. Isolate those horses which have already scored a win over
trips of 1m6f+. Nine of the last 10 winners of this event met that
criterion.
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The class question - looking at the stats there does seem to
be a class barrier to winning this race. 8 of the last 10 winners of
this race had placed in a Class 2 event or better. 7 of the last 10
winners had won or placed in a race valued at more than £33,000.
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The draw - ok, it's a 2 mile race. But the evidence of recent
renewals says that the draw matters. Low-third stalls have
definitely had the edge over recent years. The last 70 runners
starting from the low third of the draw have produced 6 of the
last 10 winners and 18 of the 31 placed horses. Of the last 7
winners 5 were berthed in stalls 7 or lower.
Horses which measure up well on multiple of these criterion - and
there is wiggle room for subjective interpretation - can be said to
have the winning profile for this race and merit serious interest.
Be sure to get the best deal....
In handicap fields of this size you should expect to be paid out on
each-way bets at 1/4 the odds for the 1-2-3-4. Right now almost
every firm in the jungle is meeting that deal. Corals are on
exception though - they will only pay out the 1/4 odds on the 1-2-3.
That's a disgraceful state of affairs - a stance that seeks to
capitalise on the gullible and the foolish who bet blind with Coral
- in the shops, on the phone or on the web - and fail to shop about
for the best deal available. Anybody backing each-way in this race
with Coral should submit themselves to a rigorous head examination.
If you're planning on betting each-way then I'd hang fire until
tomorrow morning. It may well be the case that some of the firms
will offer enhanced place terms tomorrow - where they will pay out
the 1/4 odds on finishers 1-2-3-4-5. It would surprise me if this
weren't the case.
Until next time, be lucky.
30th June 2010
Good afternoon, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus....
- The fastest horses win the sprints....
- Speed figures offer direction....
- A Group class horse.... coming out of a handicap....
- Another sprinting filly to follow....
The fastest horses win the sprints....
It doesn't take a nuclear physicist to figure out that most sprint
races on the track are won by those horses that can run the fastest.
Over longer distances races unfold less quickly and there's time for
jockeys to play a waiting game or to employ tactics and strategy.
Sure, there's an element of strategy over the sprint distances - a
jockey might want to set the pace, make sure he's racing up with the
pace or hold his horse up for a late challenge. But in races that
take a little over a minute to run the heat is on from the word go
and the most important considerations are to break cleanly and
quickly from the stalls and then to cover the ground to the winning
post as quickly as the horse is physically able to.
To the sprint follower horses with speed are of considerable
interest - and, as the season progresses, it's worth noting horses
when they demonstrate they have pace and put in high-grade speed
performances.
Speed figures offer direction....
Just about the fastest way of identifying the fastest horses is to
compare and contrast speed figures.
You can produce your own speed figures. But be warned - it's a
labour intensive business that will eat heavily into your spare
time. Unless you're prepared to make that sacrifice I'd focus
instead on using speed figures that are easily accessible and freely
available.
For example, you could use the Topspeed figures - as employed by the
Racing Post website, the daily print edition and the Weekender
results section.
Right now I'm experimenting with the Split Second speed figures
produced by Raceform - ratings that express the speed of a horse in
terms of lengths per mile. The figures produced are 'pure' speed
ratings - as opposed to speed ratings altered to take weight carried
into consideration.
Not everybody is a fan of the Split Second ratings - their reasons
being many, varied and individual. But one thing I like is that the
figures enable you to produce 'par' ratings for different classes of
races.
For example, to win a Class 1 Listed race a horse would generally
need to be good enough to post a speed rating somewhere round 110-
112 on the Split Second scale. To win a Group 1 race you'd expect a
horse to be registering a speed figure around the 116-118 mark.
These 'par' figures can be helpful in identifying horses capable of
winning again at the level they are currently contesting - and can
also help you identify those horses capable of winning better races
than the ones they are currently running in.
A Group class horse.... out of a handicap
Laddies Poker Two's recent win in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot
represented a hell of a training performance for Jeremy Noseda. The
horse had been off the track for 610 days, was having only its 5th
race, was encountering firmish ground for the first time and
overcame it all - with flying colours - to easily beat the 26 other
runners home.
She not only landed a massive gamble for supporters but achieved a
Split Second rating of 112. The Wokingham is a Class 2 Handicap. But
a rating of 112 designates Laddies Poker Two as a filly that can
step up and prove competitive at Listed and Group class.
That isn't to say her rating guarantees her a win in higher class
company - simply that she is capable of competing at that level
given the right circumstances and conditions. For a backer that's
good information to have to hand.
If, next time out, the Noseda filly is pitched into Listed or Group
company for the first time then a lot of backers will shy away from
supporting her - saying she's unproven at the level, up against
better horses than she's faced before and in need of further
improvement.
Speed rating followers will not be quite so dismissive though given
the quality of her Wokingham win on the speed scale. On that basis
they will more likely conclude that she's already demonstrated
sufficient class and ability to step up and produce at the higher
grade. If the circumstances and conditions are right for the horse,
and the price is right, then the speed rating crew might well wade
in and get the money down.
Speed ratings are not a tool which automatically point to winners
time after time - but they do provide a consistent scale of
measurement and context that can inform your thinking about a horse
or a race and give you an edge or an insight not available to the
punters who don't use speed ratings as part of their analysis
process.
Another sprinting filly to follow....
Invincible Ash is another sprinter to bear in mind. M Halford's 5-
year-old recently made a mockery of her previous efforts with an
impressive win in a 25 runner Open handicap at the Curragh over 6
furlongs. She beat the field by a massive 5 lengths and, if
anything, appeared to be still going away at the end.
Her performance earned her a Split Second rating of 111 - suggesting
she is capable of competing and winning at Group level.
If I was going to be critical I could say that she benefitted for
the significant advantage of racing against the stands rail and that
the rating flatters her performance - and whether or not that is
true remains to be seen.
I could also say that the replacement of her usual blinkers with a
sheepskin noseband relaxed the horse and contributed towards the
improvement shown.
But, I'm prepared to give her the benefit of the doubt for the
moment. The improvement might also be down to different tactics
employed in the Curragh race. Invincible Ash is a horse which has
generally been held-up. At the Curragh she made the running -
and that might be the key to getting the best out of the filly.
She's down to run tomorrow night at Leopardstown in a 6 furlong
event for fillies and on recent performances looks like the one to
beat. Three of her 4 career wins have come off breaks of 14 days or
less - so a 4 day break between races should not be a problem.
The firmish ground should not present a problem. Though the horse
has never been tried on genuine firm ground, her best performances
have come on the firmest ground she has faced.
Of course, there are no guarantees - but she's in form, she's fast
and, on her last performance, she is capable of scoring another
victory. I suspect the price will be on the short side and that
could put me off. But Invincible Ash is certainly capable of taking
a big, high-class race if she can run up to the speed rating she
scored at the Curragh.
Until next time, be lucky.
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