|
2nd June 2011
Good afternoon, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus....
- How to find this year's Derby winner....
Marking your card at Epsom....
It's a great shame in my view that the Group 1 Coronation Cup at
Epsom Downs (Friday 2.45) always seems to attract a small field...
and this year is no exception with just 5 runners going to post.
Run over the Derby and Oaks trip and contested by older horses who
have run or were slated to run in previous renewals of the two blue
riband events, the race has all the makings of a contest that should
be an eagerly anticipated year-on-year middle-distance classic...
but the small field takes away most of the shine.
I just can't understand why the £250,000 prize pool and the
availability of some Group 1 black type doesn't succeed in
attracting more entrants. It's a waste... Even so, despite the
paucity of runners, this year's renewal is a difficult one to call
with all the principals up against one stat or another.
Favourites haven't got the best record in the race - with just 3 of
the last 13 emerging victorious. On that basis 10/11 ante-post
jolly, St Nicholas Abbey - rejuvenated and redeemed last time out
with an impressive win in the Ormonde Stakes at Chester (which
earned him a 66 on my personal Performance Ratings) - can be taken
on.
The stats also say he's up against it as a 4-year-old. Only 3 horses
that age have won the Coronation Cup in the last 10 years.
The other 4-year-old in the field, Dandino, looks set to benefit
from the presence of stable mate Indian Days who will no doubt set a
pace off which the gritty son of Dansili can kick on. Dandino
backers have the advantage of knowing their man can handle the
tricky undulations of the Epsom track - particularly the downhill
sections that can unbalance horses - given his win in the Vincent
O'Brien handicap at this meeting last year.
The 5-year-old mare, Midday, will be the pick of punters going with
the market and age stats. But be aware she has plenty to overcome
herself. No female runner has won this race in two decades - and
plenty of top-quality girls have tried. Whilst she's won 5 Group 1
races against her own sex she's only taken on male runners once
before and on that occasion she lost. Granted that was over 2-years
ago and she's done most of her winning and improving since then. But
even so... Henry Cecil's golden girl has still got something to
prove.
All 3 of the main contenders in the Coronation Cup go into the race
with recent form measuring somewhere around 66 on my Performance
Ratings. They are difficult to split. If I had to stick my neck out
I'd back Dandino each-way at the prices (currently best-priced 9/1
with the firms). Indian Days will ensure he has the race run to suit
and on the figures he could easily cause an 'upset' and make the
first two. The sheer scale of the 'names' and 'reputations' he's up
against probably means he's over-priced and not without a bit of
value - but I wouldn't be going in hard
The six-point profile of a Derby winner.....
The formbook can't be relied upon when looking for the winner of the
Derby. All the runners are young, they are all lightly raced (all of
the last 10 winners had run no more than 5 times and no more than
twice during the season leading up to the Derby) and come the big
day all have the capability or the potential to improve markedly on
what they've produced prior to heading to Epsom Downs...
In these types of races the stats provide a better - or more
reliable - steer than the formbook. Year-on-year the winner of the
Derby conforms - more or less - to a specific set of statistical
criterion - what I like to call the Winning Profile. The horse or
horses in this year's field which measure up most closely to that
Winning Profile represent the best bets in the race.
Here's what you're looking for in six simple steps:
-
A Group 1 winning sire - 9 of the last 10 Derby winners were
sired by a horse which won a Group 1 race when actively competing on
the racetrack.
-
A sire with a specific stamina index - All of the last 10
winners were sired by a horse with a Stamina Index of at least 8.6f.
The Racing Post form records of individual horses - accessed through
the 'Search' function on the RP website - contain this information.
-
A Group race winner - 9 of the last 10 winners had won a Group
race before heading to Epsom.
-
An RPR of 114+ - All of the last 10 winners had performed to
that standard on Racing Post ratings in a race prior to the Derby.
-
A horse that showed stamina as a 2-year-old - 9 out of the
last 10 Derby winners raced over 7f or 8f on their racecourse debut.
-
A horse foaled early in the year - All of the last 10 winners
were foaled prior to 7th April (the Racing Post website includes
this information on the form records of all horses).
Flaws in the Queen's horse....
Carlton House has been a strong favourite for Saturday's Derby since
winning the Dante Stakes at York last month. However, his
participation was in doubt for a while after he strained an ankle
whilst cantering earlier this week.
It was announced a few moments ago that he will take his chance and
run... but I think he'll get beaten anyway - and not because of the
ankle injury. I certainly wouldn't want to be on the horse at the
type of short prices he's traded at since his York win. All this
week I've been outlining my case in Racing Angles (my paid service).
There are a couple of key weaknesses in his statistical profile that
it's going to be very difficult for him to overcome.
I've run out of space in this issue. But if you want to get the
detail behind my thinking you can access Tuesday's Racing Angles
column with my compliments. Just click on the link below to view the
entire article...
www.RacingAngles.co.uk
And if you like the type of statistical analysis you read then give
Racing Angles a try for a whole year without risking a single penny.
Click here to join now >>
Until next time, be lucky.
8th June 2011
Good afternoon, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus....
- The flies in the ointment....
- The solution to the 'problem'?
- The bookie speaks with forked tongue....
- A Derby-day strategy to bear in mind for next year....
The flies in the ointment ....
Question: What have Sole Power and Flashman's Papers got in common?
Answer: Both these horses won a Class 1 event on the turf having
been sent off at 66/1 or bigger by the market. Sole Power famously
won last year's Nunthorpe Stakes at York - sent off at an SP of
100/1. Flashman's Papers won the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal
Ascot back in 2008 - also priced at 100/1.
Aidan O'Brien's At First Sight finished 2nd in last year's Derby
priced at 100/1 - after looking like he was going to steal it from
the front for a few fleeting moments. An additional 14 horses have
been placed 2nd in Class 1 events on the turf since April 2005 -
priced up at 66/1.
I mention these high-price performers in big races for a reason. In
the immediate aftermath of Saturday's Derby at Epsom Ryan Moore, who
rode 3rd placed Carlton House for the Queen, complained that his
mount's chances had been scuppered - at least to some extent - by
the presence in the race of what he referred to as 'rubbish'.
He was speaking specifically about 100/1 shot Marhaba Malyoon who
was falling back through the field at a crucial point in the race -
forcing Ryan Moore to make his challenge wider out on the track than
he would have preferred. Castlemorris King also ran in the race -
sent off at 150/1 - and he too was going backwards as the better
horses got down to business.
There's a school of thought that says big-price no-hopers like these
- or 'flies in the ointment' as the Queen's racing advisor, John
Warren, called them on Sunday - should not be allowed to run in the
big showpiece races. Why? Because they can make a tangible
difference to the outcome of major races without actually being good
enough to get competitive or contest the finish themselves.
Do the good big-price performances justify the bad?
So do the big-price wins of Sole Power and Flashman's Papers (and
those additional 2nd place performances) nullify that argument?
Probably not - to be fair. They are just a handful of runners from a
total of 1102 big-priced horses which have contested Class 1 events
on the turf since 2005.
With the benefit of hindsight, some of those horses probably
shouldn't have been trading so big to begin with. Sole Power, for
example, recently won another Group race - the Temple Stakes at
Haydock - proving that his Nunthorpe win was no fluke and that his
price undervalued him on the day.
Five of the 2nd placed big-price runners were contesting a race with
a small-field. Eight of them were young and very lightly-raced
animals - open to improvement that made a mockery of their SPs.
Others came from small yards - unfashionable with punters and
overlooked in races full of runners from the bigger stables most
punters like to bet.
The other 1085 big-priced Class 1 participants were beaten by an
accumulative total of 19,385 lengths - or almost 18 lengths per
horse - a stat that condemns them as uncompetitive at the class as a
group and justifies their big market prices. Most of them were
probably running for no other purpose than to give their connections
a day out at a big meeting or in the hope of running into a bit of
down-the-field place money.
The solution to the 'problem'?
If we want a situation where the result in major races isn't flung
into doubt or controversy by post-race comments about 'rubbish' and
'flies in the ointment' then maybe the authorities need to consider
introducing a system whereby participants in the biggest races have
to have attained a certain level of performance in order to run - on
Racing Post ratings, for example, or in the view of the official
handicapper.
It's a process that appears to work well in athletics. To even be
considered for a place at the Olympics an athlete must have attained
a certain time, distance or level in his/her respective discipline.
It's just a thought.
In the meantime, and in the interests of a rounded story, I think
the final word should go to David Simcock - trainer of Marhaba
Malyoon, the horse Ryan Moore referred to as 'rubbish'. He said
yesterday:
'To be brutally honest, if Ryan Moore felt he was hampered by two
outsiders then maybe he should be more aware of what is going on
around him... and if he considers himself an unlucky loser then he
shouldn't, because the winner came from even further back.'
It's hard to argue with him.
The bookie speaks with forked tongue...
Whenever a bookmaker starts talking up the chances of a short-priced
horse in a big race then your antenna should start twitching.
Remember Cue Card at this year's Cheltenham Festival? It was a
short-price for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle. Every bookmaker's
representative on the block was talking the horse up as though it
couldn't lose. Lots of bookies sought to entice punters to bet with
them using the horse as bait - offering to pay back stakes if Cue
Card won and suchlike. The result: Cue Card lost - well beaten in
the end.
The bookmakers love to latch on to and talk up a short price horse
they secretly believe has flaws that will get it beat. We saw the
phenomenon again last week - with William Hill doing almost anything
bar bend over in order to get the punters to bet the Queen's horse,
Carlton House, at a short price.
When Carlton House suffered a strained ankle on the gallops William
Hill spokesperson, Kate Miller, was quickly on the phone to any
media outlet that would listen saying the horse was good enough to
win on three legs.
On Saturday - as part of an exclusive offer with the Racing Post -
William Hill offered punters betting on the Derby via the RP's phone
app a deal whereby they'd get their money back if Carlton House won
the Derby.
The clues were there. William Hill fancied the short-price fancy to
get beat - and so it did. It's something to be aware of and to look
out for in the future.
A Derby-day strategy to bear in mind for next year....
Readers of my Racing Angles service (check out the free-to-view
archive here) were already primed to oppose Carlton House on May
31st - when I first outlined its failure to meet some key standards
in the statistical profile of a typical Derby winner.
-
First off, it hadn't hit the required standard on my
Performance Ratings...
-
Second, sire Street Cry's record over the 12f trip at the top
level was questionable..
-
Third, Carlton House had been foaled later in the year than
ALL of the last 10 Derby winners.
On Saturday these flaws proved a little too much to overcome. On the
other hand the winner, Pour Moi, did meet the major criterion of the
winning profile and I put it up as a shortlisted horse the day
before the race... highlighting the value of using statistical
profiles as a sharp-edged field-splitting tool...
And here's something to bear in mind for next year.... Aidan O'Brien
has developed the knack of sending out big-priced 2nd and 3rd
stringers to place in the Derby... At First Sight ran 2nd last year
at an SP of 100/1. In 2009 Masterofthehorse placed at 16/1 and in
2006 Dylan Thomas placed at 25/1.
This year Treasure Beach did the business finishing 2nd at 25/1...
unfortunately I personally latched onto Memphis Tennessee in my
Racing Angles column when he was trading at 28/1 - and he just
missed out on placing with his 4th placed effort just under a length
behind race favourite, Carlton House. A loser on the day but a moral
victory of sorts...
O'Brien's 2nd and 3rd stringers are good horses in their own right
and seem to be consistently overlooked once the market has
identified what it considers his primary runner.
If you'd like to try my Racing Angles service for a whole year -
without risking a single penny - sign up here...
Until next time, be lucky.
14th June 2011
Good morning, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus....
- An angle for the layers at Royal Ascot....
- First-day races where the jolly regularly gets beat....
- Stats to help you take the shorties on....
- A 'dark horse' jockey to bear in mind....
An angle for the layers at Royal Ascot....
Favourites (including joint-and co-favourites) at the Royal meeting
since 2006 - the year the reformatted Ascot track reopened for
business - have produced a bit of a mixed bag for the punting
fraternity.
As a group the 136 jollies sent to post have returned 38 winners at
a winning strike rate of just under 28%. But backing them at SP has
not proved profitable - the Royal Ascot fav backers are more than 11
points down over the period.
That said there won't be too many layers licking their lips at that
outcome either. Those figures amount to just 2 points of profit per
year - assuming you could lay at SP on the exchanges - and that's
not much reward for quite a bit of effort over 25 days of racing.
But there is one decent angle for layers: Oppose jollies in the
handicap events but don't lay horses set to go off bigger than 4/1.
Since 2006 a total of 22 Royal Ascot horses have been sent off in
handicaps at SPs of 4/1 or shorter. Just 2 of them justified that
level of market support and won their races - a paltry winning
strike-rate of just 9%. At SPs the exchange layers are 14 points up
opposing them.
It's an approach which requires patience but in the kind of big-
filed handicap races run at Royal Ascot it always has a strong
chance of producing profit. Bear in mind that you don't have to lay
the qualifiers on the exchanges to benefit from the market's self-
destructive tendency to overvalue horses in Royal Ascot handicap
events. You can oppose a qualifier simply by backing one or multiple
horses at bigger prices to beat it.
First-day races where the jolly regularly gets beat....
When it comes to taking on short-priced horses then 2 of today's
opening 3 races provide solid opportunities. The Queen Anne Stakes
and the King's Stand Stakes are not handicaps but they do have a
history of getting the jolly turned over. There's been just one
winning favourite in both races over the last decade.
Both Canford Cliffs and Goldikova are short in the Queen Anne Stakes
at 2.30 and whether you back one of those or one of the others there
are one or two stats you need to bear in mind....
-
A 4- or 5- year old has won this race every year since 1985.
Whilst that stat undoubtedly suits Canford Cliffs and a few others
in the race it's one that will have backers of 6-year-old Goldikova
(the winner of 13 Group 1 races) reaching for the indigestion
tablets. Over the last 10 years 21 runners have tried to defy the
stat. One recent superstar to fall foul of it was Rakti who was
fancied by the market to defy the passing of time back in 2005. He
was sent off at odds-on to prevail as a 6-year-old and got turned
over.
-
Nine out of the last 10 winners of this were colts or
geldings. Goldikova did the business for Freddie Head last year but
she's the only mare to win this race in the last half-century.
Plenty of decent females have tried and failed in that time. As
recently as 2008 Finsceal Beo and Darjina were sent off at the head
of the market only to fall a little short. Goldikova is special but
- despite her trend-busting performance last year - the boys have
long held the advantage in the Queen Anne and she's another year
older this time round. Freddie Head's other runner, Flash Dance, is
also a mare.
-
Seven of the last 8 winners of this race - and all of the last
5 - had won a Group 1. This is a stat that stands against Cityscape,
Ransom Note and Flash Dance.
Nineteen runners go to post in the Kings Stand Stakes at 3.05.
Australian runners have a great record in this race but even so,
Star Witness, is going to have to have everything go his way to
justify his 4/1 price tag (writing late Monday night)....
If you fancy taking him on then there's a couple of stats that can
help you reduce the field and zero-in on likely types...
-
Look for a horse that stays 6f - the 5f trip at Ascot is a
stiff test and a sprinter needs a bit of stamina in addition to raw
speed. Nine of the last 10 winners had won over 6 furlongs. Recent
winner of the Temple Stakes and ante-post 2nd favourite for this,
Sole Power, is one runner who has yet to prove capable of winning
over the 6f trip.
-
Don't discount the foreigners - six out of the last 10 winners
were trained overseas so don't scratch horses simply because you
don't recognise their names or those of their trainers.
-
Nine out of the last 10 winners had been sharpened up for this
race with two prep runs prior to Royal Ascot - on historical trends
Arctic, Kingsgate Native, Monsieur Chevalier, Astrophysical Jet and
Swiss Diva lack the prep races necessary to have the winning edge
here.
-
Nine out of the last 10 winners had won a Group race prior to
showing up at Ascot for this - Sole Power, Arctic, Kingsgate Native,
Monsieur Chevalier, Astrophysical Jet and Swiss Diva all fall down
on other stats but conform to this one. Star Witness, Overdose,
Tangerine Trees, War Artist and Rose Blossom are also Group winners.
And I wouldn't discount Group Therapy who finished 2nd in a Group
race at Goodwood.
A 'dark horse' jockey to bear in mind....
Ryan Moore is 4/7 to be 'Top Jockey' at the Royal Meeting and it's
easy to see why. One, he's in rare form right now having ridden a
686/1 5-timer at York on Saturday. Two, he's got a book of rides
this week that most jockeys would trade a limb for... riding for Sir
Michael Stoute, Aidan O'Brien's Ballydoyle team and other such
notables as William Haggas, Richard Hannon, Jeremy Noseda and even
David Pipe who is running Junior in this afternoon's Ascot stakes.
But be aware of one jockey who probably doesn't have sufficient
depth or quality of bookings to win the Top Jockey title this week
but who rides Ascot as well as, if not better, than any other rider
on view this week....
Johnny Murtagh's last 126 rides at Ascot have produced 23 winners at
a shade over 18% - and to level stakes those rides have produced in
excess of 64 points of profit.
Granted, he won't have the benefit of Ballydoyle's horses to help
him along this time round but we saw what he is capable of last week
at Epsom on Dancing Rain in the Oaks.
I'd be very surprised - on the basis of his stats at the course - if
Murtagh doesn't pay his way this week to level stakes each-way. It's
just a thought.
£200 in cash for Extrabet account holders?
Some of you will have heard on the grapevine that Extrabet is the
latest sports-betting firm to go bump. They close their doors for
the last time on June 23rd. Now, I won't be shedding any tears over
that - but right now if you happen to be an Extrabet account holder
you should take a look at what spread-betting firm, Sporting Index,
is putting on the table just in time for Royal Ascot...
If you're an Extrabet account holder, and you don't already bet with
them, Sporting Index are prepared to double their usual offer for
new account openers and give you £200 cash when you place a total of
5 bets....
It's just a little something to bear in mind... something to sweeten
the pot... if you were planning to play any of the spread markets on
the Royal meeting this year. Check out the details here.
I'll be providing statistical insight into every race at Royal
Ascot (today through Saturday) as part of my Racing Angles
service... If you'd like to try the service for a whole year -
without risking a single penny - then sign up here.
24th June 2011
Good afternoon, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus....
- The profile of a Northumberland Plate winner....
- Why I swear by the Winning Profile....
- The acid test at Royal Ascot....
The profile of a Northumberland Plate winner....
This year's renewal of the Northumberland Plate will be run on
Saturday afternoon at Newcastle (3.05pm). If you're looking for the
winner of this famous handicap run over the stamina-sapping 2 mile
trip then it will pay to consider the kind of attributes, stats and
characteristics carried into the event by previous winners....
-
On the flat the 2-mile trip is an extreme test of stamina and
the stats strongly suggest you don't want a horse over-burdened with
weight. Instead focus your attention on animals set to carry 8-11 or
less. Nine of the last 10 winners carried that kind of weight to
victory. So too did an additional 19 placed horses. Top weights have
an abysmal record - producing no winners and just a single placed
effort in the last decade. On this basis Overturn looks vulnerable
toward the top of the market. He carries 9-10 tomorrow and is as
short as 11/2 with the firms.
-
Where official ratings are concerned I would be looking to
side with a horse rated 90 or higher - 7 of the last 10 winners
conformed to that stat.
-
Draw biases are ordinarily associated with races run over much
shorter distances. This race may well be run over 16f - but the draw
is very important to the outcome. Where they start in the
Northumberland Plate tells you an awful lot about where they will
finish. Look at a map of Newcastle racecourse and you'll see that
the 2m start is right on top of a sharp left-hand bend - and not far
afterwards there's another. The layout of the 2m course is not
advantageous to runners drawn high. They must either run on the
outside or use up valuable energy early in the race in a bid to get
closer to the inside rail and a more favourable racing position.
Overturn won out of stall 21 last year - a remarkable feat - but
he's one of only 4 horses to win from a double-figure stall in the
last dozen renewals. The percentage play is to stick with horses
drawn lower.
-
I would avoid horses older than 7. This only discounts My Arch
in this year's field. But he's one less to bother about. Only one
horse older than 7 has won the race in the last decade. Six- or
seven-year olds have won 4 of the last 6 renewals.
-
You don't want to be investing your money on a horse unproven
at the trip or where some doubt exists that it will get it.
Newcastle is a pretty stiff test of a horse - even on the flat - and
you want to know you're on one with the legs to handle the
challenge. Look for a horse with winning form over 14f (1m6f) or
further. Nine out of the last 10 winners went into the race having
met that criterion.
-
Most of tomorrow's field produced a decent effort last time
out and the stats suggest it will be needed. 8 of the last 10
winners finished in the top 5 last-time-out. None of the last 10
winners was coming into the race completely fresh. All had raced
within the last 55 days - either on the flat or, as was the case
with Overturn last year, over hurdles.
Don't be afraid to support horses at bigger prices - 8 of the last
10 Northumberland Plate winners were sent off at double-figure
prices and only one favourite has obliged in the last 10 years. For
me it's a race where I want to be supporting 'live' contenders -
identified using the Winning Profile above - at nice each-way
prices.
Why I swear by the Winning Profile....
Over the last couple of years my methods of approaching big horse
races have changed... or, more accurately, they've evolved....
Nothing stands still and anything that does tends to get overtaken
and left behind... or covered in moss and weeds at the very least...
Three years ago my default approach to the big races was to get my
head stuck into the form book for hours on end... seeking to assess
each individual runner entered into a race... objectively measuring
its preferences against the conditions and circumstances it was
likely to meet with on race day. On that basis, all factors weighed
against one another, I'd reach some conclusion about which horse or
horses were most favoured....
The approach was long on time and effort... it was a real slog...
and I got to figuring that there must be quicker ways of making the
game pay... shortcuts I could adopt... stepping stones I could use
to get from A to B a damn sight faster than I was managing with the
head-down and hit-the-formbook approach...
Over the next couple of years I started looking less at the field
for an upcoming renewal of a big race... and looking more at horses
which had won the race in the past.
More specifically I started looking at the types of horses that had
won the race in the past... the attributes, characteristics,
achievements and traits they had carried into the race...
What I discovered was that horses with very similar statistical
profiles tend to win specific races year-on-year.
I also discovered that rather than ploughing through the formbook
studying the form records of every single runner set to contest an
upcoming renewal... it made more sense... and took a damn sight less
time... to actually split the upcoming renewal field on the basis of
that statistical profile or the Winning Profile as I call it - an
outline of what the prospective winner will look like based on the
stats and not unlike what I've outlined above for the winner of
tomorrow's Northumberland Plate....
The acid test at Royal Ascot....
I had some good successes at the Cheltenham Festival earlier this
year... but it was clear I still needed to tweak my methods a little
and Royal Ascot last week presented a really good opportunity to
test my progress.
I've got to say I'm really pleased with how things went.
The big handicaps at the Royal meeting are really complex puzzles.
And, if you're consistently seeing them well, then you know you're
doing something right...
I provided my Racing Angles readership with coverage of the 1st 4
days at Royal Ascot. As you know, I don't consider myself a
tipster... I think of myself more as a provider of statistical
analysis and insight that runs alongside the mainstream racing
coverage... so I didn't nominate 'selections' for every race at the
meeting...
But I did stick my neck out on some of the handicaps... based on my
Winning Profiles for those races.... (Check out my original comments
and analysis in the free-to-view Racing Angles archive...) and I
couldn't be happier with the outcomes.
-
In Wednesday's 28-runner Royal Hunt Cup the Winning Profile
reduced the field to a shortlist of 3 - including winner, Julienas,
who could be backed at 20/1 on the morning of the race. Start Right
also appeared on the shortlist and only just failed to run into 5th
place - on which plenty of bookmaker's would have paid out each-way
bets.
-
On Thursday the Winning Profile reduced the 29-runner
Britannia Handicap field to just 4 runners one of which, Sagramor,
duly obliged at 8/1 - having been easy to back at 10s earlier in the
day.
-
Also on Thursday the Winning Profile split the King George
field down to a shortlist of just 2 - including winner Brown Panther
who was advised when he could still be bet at 8/1.
Now that I feel I am really hitting the straps with my Winning
Profiles I'm going to be basing more of my Racing Angles content on
that approach - in conjunction with my usual statistical analysis.
I know plenty of you HRF readers like the Winning Profile material I
provide in this column from time to time ... so I just wanted to
give you a heads-up that going forward you can get access to a lot
more of that kind of thing on my Racing Angles service... which you
can try risk-free right now for a full year...
Get on board here...
www.shopatoxonpress.com/RA77HRF/
In the meantime I hope the profile points you to a decent bet in the
Northumberland Plate
tomorrow....
Until next time, be lucky.
29th June 2011
Good morning, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus....
- The bookmaking industry's sweetheart....
- It's a Street Cry thing....
- Where Carlton House gets interesting....
- 12/1 trading value...
The bookmaking industry's sweetheart....
If bookmakers were to start sending bouquets of flowers to horses
then Carlton House can be confident that his name would appear
prominently on Interflora's dispatch rosters this week.
His 4th placed finish in Sunday's Irish Derby at the Curragh
represented the second time this season the 3-year-old son of Street
Cry had disappointed his backers at short prices - ensuring on both
occasions that the layers returned to their well-appointed castles
grinning from ear to ear.
At Epsom Downs earlier this month he was sent off the 5/2 favourite
in the English version of the Derby - only to finish 3rd behind Pour
Moi and Treasure Beach. The excuses or the explanations for his
defeat - depending on how you chose to interpret these things -
followed no more than a length to the rear.
Admittedly, not all such rationalisations were offered up by his
connections... Some were put forward by punters talking out of their
pockets.... But the injury he sustained on the gallops in the week
leading up to the race... the wide draw... the slow start... the
position at the back of the field... the trouble in running he
experienced at the hands of rag horses going backwards... being
forced wide on the final bend... the loss of a shoe in the final
furlong... all these things conspired to suggest his defeat was both
unavoidable... and easily reversible...
In fact, given the range and depth of calamities that befell him at
Epsom and given that he finished only a length and a neck behind the
winner you might be forgiven for concluding that the Queen's horse
won the moral victory if not the plaudits that afternoon.
Punters playing the Irish Derby market on Sunday certainly seemed to
adopt that view - supporting the horse into 5/4 favouritism - a
price that suggested he had a 44% chance of winning the race.
The market was confident. In some quarters the winnings were
probably already half-spent before the stalls had been loaded. But
in the event Carlton House wasn't able to live up to the market's
estimation of his chances. Treasure Beach beat him home again,
Seville reversed their Dante form and Memphis Tennessee reversed
their respective positions in the English Derby. Carlton House was
beaten more than 2 lengths by the winner.
Now, in some quarters at least, Carlton House's ability to actually
win a Group 1 contest is under review. How fickle this game of
racing is. One day you have it all laid out in front of you. The
next the obituaries are being drafted. Maybe those flowers will come
in handy?
It's a Street Cry thing...
But let's just hold onto our horses for a moment... Let's not throw
the baby out with the bath water...
Whether or not Carlton House wins a Group 1 race will be of
considerable interest to connections. It's a 'black type' issue that
will impact on the horse's stud value and the stud fees it will or
won't command further down the road. But to racing punters like us
it's neither here nor there. What we want to know is can the horse
win a race - any race - and produce a return for us. That's the name
of our game.
And the answer is clearly yes - yes he can. Just not at the 12f
trip. At least not in the kind of high-level races he's been
campaigned in this month.
Let's not forget that Carlton House is the progeny of the sire,
Street Cry. And that being the case the stats tell you that any
strong expectations of Carlton House being a performer at the 12f
trip at the very top level were always going to be vulnerable to
revision. Take a look at the figures:
Over the period 2009 to date 7 horses sired by Street Cry contested
races over 12f worth £20,000 or more to the winner worldwide. Just
one won. That was Shocking who won the 2009 Group 1 Melbourne Cup
run over 2m at Flemington. And even that win is open to question.
Shocking's victory undoubtedly had a great deal to do with a
pedestrian early pace that enabled the horse to conserve energy and
then hit its straps in a fast finish.
Street Cry progeny can win more frequently at 12f+. But those wins
tend to occur in lesser-value races and even then the strike rate
does nothing to support the argument that Street Cry's sons and
daughters get 12f+ well. In events over 12f where the winner takes
home less than £20,000 a total of 13 Street Cry sired horses have
won from 176 triers at just 7.4%.
Rather than supporting Street Cry's progeny at 12f+ you should be
looking to oppose them - especially when the market backs them into
short prices. You will not get rich laying such animals on the
exchanges - but over time you can expect to see a dribble of profit.
Nine Street Cry runners have been sent off at 4/1 or shorter in 12f+
races since 2008 - none of them won.
If connections want to persist in racing Carlton House over 12f+
then they might want to consider finding a race in France - where
the early pace in such races is invariably slow and generally leads
to something resembling a sprint finish.
That kind of scenario might well see Carlton House win at 12f at the
top level. There are no guarantees, however - he would always be
vulnerable to a strong pace and we have no stats to work with in any
case. No Street Cry progeny have run in France at trips of 12f+
during the last 6 years - so the theory remains exactly that - but
the French angle is worth bearing in mind... just in case.
Where Carlton House gets interesting....
So... if the stats tell us that we ought not - for the sake of our
pocket - be supporting Carlton House at trips of 12f+ then where
might we want to support him?
For conclusive guidance we should turn, once again, to the stats -
and they tell us we definitely want to be focusing on him when he
runs over shorter trips.
In top level races it's at trips of 10f or shorter where Street
Cry's progeny come very much into their own. Thirty horses sired by
Street Cry have prevailed in races worth £20,000 or more to the
winner since 2006. All bar one of those wins came at trips of 10f or
shorter.
The message is clear - in the really classy events Street Cry
progeny want to be running at 10f or shorter. For me, that's the
kind of trip where Carlton House becomes interesting and a backable
proposition.
After two defeats at 12f - albeit relatively close defeats in the
biggest European races for 3-year-old middle distance runners at
this time of the year - it is highly likely that trainer Sir Michael
Stoute is considering dropping the horse back in trip. I wouldn't
presume to tell the great man his business - but, if he is thinking
that way, the stats suggest his thinking would be right.
And finally...
12/1 trading value...
I'm always on the lookout for a big price that I can trade later for
a profit. I do it all the time myself with the racing. And I keep my
eye on a variety of tipping services to alert me to big value
opportunities in other sports.
Over the years I've found the most consistent of these - when it
comes to great value ante post prices - is The Insider service, ran
by an ex-odds compiler who goes under the name 'Mr X'...
His selections have made a profit every year since its launch in
2001. A decade of profits is an exceptional achievement.
And The Insider goes from strength to strength. At Wimbledon this
week, members are sitting on 12/1 each way for Maria Sharapova
(placed in April). She's now in to the semi finals and down to 5/4
favourite - meaning Insider members are in a great position to make
money once again.
If you want to check out the latest big value bets for yourself -
and get yourself on some great prices for upcoming events including
the new football season - you can get your name down for a Risk-Free
Trial of The Insider here.
Until next time, be lucky.
|
