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28th March 2008
Good morning, friends,
- 'Dutch' your way to steady racing profits....
- Put your betting on turbo boost by joining the Lay Betting revolution....
Hedge your bets by 'dutching' for profits....
In previous issues of HRF I've talked about opposing overpriced favourites - either by laying them on the exchanges or supporting an alternative horse.
But what if you don't have a betting exchange account? Or what if you fancy 2 or 3 or even 4 alternative horses in the market? What then? Well, in those circumstances there's another strategy you can use to turn steady profits. Most people refer to it as 'dutching' but it's also known as 'backing around the board'.
Dutching is useful when you want to oppose one or more horses in a race but you're uncertain of the potential winner. It provides an effective way of making a profit from a race whilst minimising risk.
It works like this...
Instead of backing just a single selection, you back all the horses you think have solid chances of winning. The clever bit is that your stake is split to achieve the same amount of profit whichever horse wins the race.
Let's say Horse A is the 4/6 favourite in a race. You don't fancy its chances. The ground is against it, the trainer hasn't saddled a winner in three weeks and the jockey has an abysmal record at the course. You think the horse is overvalued. The price is too short - overestimating its true chances of winning. You think Horse A will get beat.
The horse is up against 12 opponents. You've done all your analysis and you've narrowed your list of probables down to three - but you can't pick between them. In your book they all have strong claims at nice prices: Horse B is 8/1, Horse C is 10/1 and Horse D is 12/1.
You could take a chance and back Horse D, the biggest priced horse on your shortlist. You might get lucky. But imagine how you'd feel if Horse B or Horse C won the race? Gutted, right? To avoid that scenario you could 'dutch' all three.
Here's how. Let's say your usual stake on a horse is £20. You split this to ensure you get the same profit whichever horse wins. In our example you would bet £7.97 on Horse B, £6.52 on Horse C and £5.52 on Horse D to guarantee a return of £71.70 and a profit of £51.70 whichever of your picks wins.
What about if you want to make a profit of £100 whichever of your picks wins the race? Simple, you just adjust your stakes accordingly. In our example, to guarantee a £100 profit you'd increase your stakes to £15.41 on Horse B, £12.61 on Horse C and £10.57 on Horse D.
You'll note the odd stakes. Feel free to round up or down for convenience. In the first example, £8, £6.50, £5.50. In the second, £15.50, £12.60, £10.50. This will lead to a slightly higher or lower profit depending on which horse wins the race - but nothing too significant.
Now, how did I work all these stakes out? Did I use my lightening quick mathematical brain?
Did I heckers like, guv'nor! I used an online dutching calculator.
My favourite is at www.ukhorseracing.co.uk/tools/DutchingCalculator.asp. It's free and easy to use. You can input decimal or fractional prices. And it's fast - just what you need when you need to act quickly. You don't want to be doing complex calculations on the back of a fag packet as the horses go to post. Dutching calculators might look a bit complex. But they aren't. The best way to learn is to go and play. Within minutes you'll be an expert - guaranteed.
Dutching isn't only useful for opposing overvalued favourites...
For example, I like to dabble in the big sprint handicaps on the flat. These races generally consist of 16-20 runners. A late break from the stalls, traffic problems in running or a stumble can all get your horse beaten. In sprints there's no time for horses to recover ground. I like to hedge my bets in these races and dutch 2, 3 or 4 selections. And in sprint handicaps the prices can make dutching a worthwhile and profitable option. 'Live' horses consistently go off at double-figure odds.
Another race I like to dutch is the Grand National. A big field combined with plenty of live contenders at fair prices makes it a perfect race to turn a profit in. The trick is to have the right shortlist of horses. We already did some preliminary field splitting for the National last week. Next week I'll be writing to you on Wednesday and Friday and building on this work - so that come race day you're equipped with a decent shortlist to go to war with. Watch your mailbox!!
Word to the wise: Dutching adds some insurance to your betting. Use the method to oppose overpriced favourites or to hedge your bets in big field races with multiple live contenders.
Isn't it about time you profited from the betting revolution?
Betting Exchanges have revolutionised the way I bet. But they remain something of an undiscovered paradise for many punters.
Like traditional bookmakers, betting exchanges offer all the racing markets you'd expect. The difference is punters bet against one another. There's no bookmaker. He's been cut out of the equation. And, believe me, that's the best thing that has ever happened to racing punters.
Betting Exchanges offer you direct and unmitigated access to profit opportunities previously denied you. On a Betting Exchange you can back selections as per tradition. But you also have the option to Lay bets - that is, bet against an outcome happening. In other words - bet on something NOT to happen.
Empowered with the option to Back or Lay as you see fit, you are in total control of your own destiny. Exchanges give you the tools you need to ensure profits or protect yourself from loss. These are major steps forward for us racing punters.
But that's not all. Exchanges also offer:
- value the bookmaker cannot deliver - exchange prices are up to 20% better.
- an environment where winning is not penalised. Win regularly with your bookie and he'll limit you or close your account altogether. This won't happen on the exchanges.
- efficient and transparent markets - a fair environment for the punter.
- The option of requesting your own prices if you don't like those that are available.
Now those are pretty serious advantages. The bookmaker doesn't come close to competing. And that's why I've pretty much dumped fixed odds bookmakers. But, despite the advantages, swarms of punters continue to give their custom to the traditional bookmaker. Are you one of them?
Perhaps it's the unknown technology that puts you off? Perhaps you haven't yet realised that your relationship with your bookie is an abusive one - based on poor value, penalties if/when you win and every dice loaded in the bookie's favour? Maybe exchanges with their decimal odds and new-fangled terminology seem too complex or impenetrable?
Whatever, your decision not to engage with this betting revolution is hitting you in the pocket, my friend. You are denying yourself access to a Pandora's box of opportunity and potential profit.
- With that in mind you might be interested to know I have recently finished work on a Betting Exchange manual titled Join the Lay Betting Revolution and Win Big Money from Losers! I wrote the book with several intentions...
- to clarify the facts about betting exchanges and to debunk some of the disinformation that's been spread about recently.
- to highlight the many reasons you should consider dumping your bookmaker.
- to explain the new opportunities offered by the exchanges and how to take advantage.
- to share my own experiences and some of the ideas behind my own profitable betting on the exchanges
The book is not only a step-by-step guide to profiting from Betting Exchanges, but I've also gone one better...
For people new to Lay betting, who might not yet be confident enough to take the plunge themselves - I have reviewed the 20 best Lay tipping services currently out-there. This means anyone can start earning from the Betting Exchanges straight away - albeit with a little help from a Lay tipster.
My totally independent review will guide you to the most trustworthy, reliable and profitable services on offer - and don't think I'm exaggerating when I say some of the performances will blow your socks off.
- EXCLUSIVE OFFER: Look out for your chance to claim a copy of Join the Lay Betting Revolution and Win Big Money from Losers! coming your way soon.
Word to the wise: Exchange betting offers profit opportunities your fixed-odds bookie just can't match. I can tell you from personal experience that it's well worth the minimal effort of embracing the culture change and learning a few simple steps to big racing profits.
Until next time, be lucky.
21st March 2008
Good morning, friends,
Cheltenham is over but we can still learn a valuable lesson from the experience.... And with Aintree on the horizon there are two easy steps to help us identify horses which will not win the Grand National....
78% of short priced horses crashed and burned at the festival....
The Cheltenham festival is over. The racing jamboree moves swiftly on towards Aintree, Punchestown and a long, hot summer of flat racing. However, before we leave last week's events behind us, I want to take the opportunity to reiterate an important point we should bear in mind as we move forward.
Once again, the Cheltenham festival provided proof in action that the biggest race meetings are a fertile source of short-priced horses it pays to oppose.
At this year's festival 23 horses were sent off at odds of 4/1 or lower. Only 5 lived up to their billing in the press and the markets and obliged by winning their respective races - Garde Champetre, Albertas Run, Master Minded, Our Vic and Denman.
The remaining 18 horses proved that short-prices, pre-race press hype and overwhelming support from pundits and tipsters can grossly underestimate the true competitiveness of races at the top level. What they achieved in their races failed to live up to their pre-race reputations and prices.
It's no coincidence that so many short priced horses failed to win their races and that the bookmakers were tooting their horns about how profitable the festival was for them. Paddy Power is quoted as saying: 'It definitely turned into a bookies' meeting.' No doubt his competitors' experiences were similar.
The lesson here is clear: backing over-priced, over-valued horses ensures there's only one winner - the bookmaker.
I talked about the bad record of short-priced horses at Cheltenham before the festival began and again during the meeting. I hope you managed to avoid watching your money go west on some of thee pre-meeting 'certs' like Noland, Wonder Kid, River Liane and Ashkazar.
Identifying races and meetings where short-priced horses have a record of being overvalued is a subject I will return to as and when we can take advantage of the phenomenon.
For now, keep in kind that short-prices are no indication of winners at the pinnacle of racing. Top-class fields consist of multiple animals who can win - often at prices which underestimate their true chances. Your betting should reflect this fact.
Word to the wise: Punters whose portfolio of festival bets included plenty of short-priced animals took a good hiding and are still counting the cost. At meetings where racing is very competitive it pays to oppose short-priced horses and identify 'live' competitors at prices which underestimate their true chances of winning.
Straightforward Grand National trends we can start splitting the field with....
As I write there are 155 horses entered in the 2008 Grand National to be run at Aintree on the 5th April. You can check the entered runners and weights at the Racing Post website. Look in 'Early Closing Races' under 'Cards'.
Right now it's impossible to know what will run on the day. Let alone what will win. But, even at this early stage, we can start identifying horses that won't win - and the horses we can definitely avoid in the ante-post market.
For a start you can draw a line through any horse under 8 years old and any horse aged over 12.
No horse aged under 8 has won the big one in the last 67 years. There's no reason to believe that statistic is set to crack. Stamina is crucial in the Grand National run over 4 miles and 4 furlongs. Younger horses - replete with more speed than stamina - tend to struggle. Last year there wasn't even a finisher under 8 years of age.
Older horses, aged 13 or 14, are inevitably past their best. No horse older than 12 has won the Grand National in the last 84 years.
The numbers strongly suggest the winner will be aged 8-12. It's too early to start picking the individual horse out. But that job will get easier as entries reduce in number closer to the race and the field takes some shape. So hold fire.
Weight also enables us to cross some horses from our list.
The National is a long and tough staying handicap. Too much weight beats National horses. Since the war there have been only five instances of horses winning the National carrying more than 11st 5Ibs. Two of those sterling efforts were produced by National specialist, Red Rum. Last year only one horse carrying 11st 5Ibs or more actually finished the race.
Using that weight as our cutting off point we can confidently dismiss the chances of 12 horses set to carry that kind of burden by the handicapper this year.
These two simple moves, which will take you 5 minutes to go through, reduce the field by 27 - including striking a line through Simon and Mr Pointment who are both prominent in the ante-post market.
This is just a start. There's a long way to go yet. But I'll be helping you reduce the field further in our upcoming issues so we can get some live ones running for us in the Aintree showpiece event.
Word to the wise: Age and weight trends in the Grand National enable us to scrub horses highly unlikely to win. Strike a line through all horses aged under 8, all horses aged over 12 and all horses set to carry more than 11st 5Ibs in the handicap.
Until next time, be lucky.
14th March 2008
Good morning, friends,
The last day of the festival has dawned and a true clash of the titans awaits us in the Gold Cup – the most eagerly anticipated contest in racing since Arkle and Mill House locked horns back in 1964.
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Gold Cup 2008 - The time for talking is over...
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Unpredictability is the only sure thing in racing...
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A recap on selections for this afternoon's Coral Cup...
Kauto Star v Denman - It's showtime!
By 3.45 this afternoon we will know the answer to the big question. Kauto Star or Denman for the Gold Cup? All the talking has been done. Every pundit and his dog has had his say. The preparations are complete. The bets are on. Now it's down to business.
Denman is unbeaten in eight starts over fences. He's a bold front runner and looks like he stays forever. Kauto Star is the reigning champ. He comes from off the pace – though he's expected to run closer to the pace today. Surprisingly, for a horse with a Gold Cup under his belt, questions have been raised about whether he stays the trip – most notably by Denman's connections.
Paul Nicholls, trainer of both horses, thinks Kauto stays. Harry Findlay, Denman's colourful co-owner, says that if Kauto beats Denman over the Gold Cup trip then he's the best chaser he's ever laid eyes on. Kauto's owner, Clive Smith, reckons that's exactly what Kauto Star will prove. 'We can beat Denman and we will beat him,' says Smith. And he makes the case that Denman has still to prove he gets the trip up the Cheltenham hill.
Ruby Walsh had to choose between Kauto Star and Denman. He admits he wasn't sure. 'I don't know. I hope I'm on the right one. It may be a lot closer than most people think.' Sam Thomas, piloting Denman, has said little – content, perhaps, to let actions speak louder than words.
Any closer to calling the winner? No? Me neither. But I can't wait to find out.
As a betting heat the race doesn't appeal. It's impossible to look beyond the short-priced big two for the winner and difficult to pinpoint which of the remainder will win what seems like a scrap for third-place honours. Cases could be made for and against half a dozen.
So, hang the betting! Some races just don't require added spice – and this is one of them. The thing to do is sit back and enjoy a racing spectacle which, if it lives up to the hype, racing fans will still be talking about in years to come – much as grizzled old buffs still reflect on the Mill House v Arkle race. Let battle commence!
Word to the wise: At 3.30 make sure you are sitting comfortably in front of your TV with no distractions. Clashes of this magnitude come round once in a blue moon. Do not miss it!
The only thing predictable about racing is its unpredictability...
Gordon Bennett! What a Cheltenham! It seems like every long-standing statistic and trend has been stood on its head and spun anti-clockwise.
- Katchit wins the Champion Hurdle as a 5 year old.
- Master Minded wins the Champion Chase as a 5 year old.
- Inglis Drever wins a third World Hurdle – as a 9 year old.
- The Reynoldstown Chase (run at Ascot) produces the winner of the Royal & Sun Alliance Chase, Albertas Run.
Even the fully-exposed Mister McGoldrick got in on the act by winning the Racing Post Plate at the ripe old age of 11! Who could see that one coming? You'd need a crystal ball. Available at three figure odds on Wednesday night, you could gauge just how much of a shock his win represented by the all-consuming silence he met with as he passed the winning post. If a single living soul backed him, I'd like to hear from them. You could hear a pin drop on course.
But I guarantee the bookies' hearts were singing like fat little blackbirds.
The only thing you can rely on in racing is its sheer and unwavering unpredictability. Just when you think you know what's what, it does what you least anticipate. At the moment you believe you know what to expect, racing confounds you by delivering what you believed to be impossible, improbable or downright implausible. Racing takes the Mickey, it tests your resolve to breaking point and, as I know from repeated personal experience, it can make you look like a fool.
Yes, the unpredictable outcomes of racing can have you curled up in the foetal position and howling yourself daft. But it is the very same unpredictability which draws us back time and again like moths to the flame. Unpredictability is the constant standing challenge we racing punters must overcome to make the profits we seek. It's tough, it can be hard-going – but it's fun.
Would we want it any other way? Not me, guv'nor. Where would we be without the unpredictable? How dull would racing (and life) be without it?
Sure, we lose battles and skirmishes. That does not mean we lose the war. When events confound our expectations and leave our wallets a little lighter than we'd like, we put it down to experience, learn what we can from it and fight on. And we celebrate like drunken monkeys the battles we do win.
So, in the time-honoured spirit of battle-hardened racing punters and drunken monkeys the world over, here's a recap of what I predict, and where I intend to put my money, in this afternoon's Coral Cup (rescheduled from Wednesday)...
7 year olds with the right rating in the Coral Cup...
The Coral Cup day promises to be a red-hot betting heat - and it's a race I like to get stuck into. The record of favourites is poor – only one winning favourite in the last ten years.
A couple of trends enable us to significantly reduce the field.
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Age – Per runner, 7-year old participants have been the most competitive group over the last ten years.
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BHB Ratings – Per runner, horses rated 135-139 or 130 and lower have been the most competitive.
Taken together, these trends point us towards two 'live' contenders with just the right profile at mouth-watering prices: PYLEIGH LADY and NAIAD DU MISSELOT. Both look laid out for the race – only having had two runs apiece this season. I'll be splitting my stake and backing both horses each-way.
At time of writing Pyleigh Lady can be backed at a very healthy 40/1 generally. Naiad Du Misselot is best priced 9/1 with Ladbrokes.Bear in mind that Bet365, Blue Square, Boylesports, Paddy Power and Coral all offer enhanced place terms on the race – 1/4 odds on the first five home. Be sure to get your each-way bets on with those firms. Bet elsewhere and you'll only be paid out the first four.
Word to the wise: 7-year olds and horses rated 130 or below have a record of being very competitive in the Coral Cup... taken together these trends point to PYLEIGH LADY at 40/1 and NAIAD DU MISSELOT at 9/1. Remember to back them both each-way.
The Coral Cup is at 1.40pm today...
Click here for the latest odds:
http://odds.sportsxtra.co.uk/horse-racing/cheltenham
Until next time, be lucky.
13th March 2008
Good morning, friends,
It's not just the horses who'll need stamina over the next couple of days. We punters will need it too with two days of mammoth cards at the festival to make up for losing yesterday to the weather. But I'm not complaining. We've got two fabulous days' racing and punting to look forward to.
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Festival form and solid race times indicate a 7/1 winner of the Ryanair Chase....
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A horse that 'smells' like an overlooked plot horse in the Racing Post Plate....
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'Talking' horses get stuffed on day one....and there will be more to follow...
Previous festival form and race times point to the winner of the Ryanair Chase....
When the festival extended to cover four days in 2005, plenty of sour-faced knockers grumbled about the quality of the festival being diluted. Some still do. I don't agree. And the Ryanair Chase at 2.55pm (one of the races added to the programme to facilitate the extension) is one reason why.
Run over 2m5 the race provides a genuine championship event for the quality horses lacking the basic speed needed to compete in a Champion Chase and those bereft of sufficient stamina to compete over the Gold Cup distance.
All three runnings of the race to date have been competitive affairs with no more than 3 lengths separating the first three home on each occasion. This year's renewal promises no less. Not an easy race to call - but I believe I've identified a horse with a huge chance of winning at a very nice price.
Call me a racing anorak (and I've been called worse, believe me) but I'm a fanatical student of race times. I spend more time analyzing race times than my psychiatrist considers healthy. And close inspection of the recent race times achieved by the runners in this year's Ryanair Chase point me squarely in the direction of Ferdy Murphy's L'ANTARTIQUE - currently trading at a best priced 6/1 with Coral.
With a 100% record at Cheltenham (one of them at the last year's festival) and both wins coming over today's race distance, L'Antartique already appealed strongly.
But when I looked more closely at L'Antartique's race times in the Jewson Novices' Handicap at last year's festival and in the Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase in November, well... then I got really excited.
In both races the horse ran very close to the Racing Post's standard time for course and distance - a really good signal in this judge's book that the horse is quick enough to compete with the best. Looking at race times recorded recently by the opponents he faces this afternoon only compounds my certainty that L'Antartique will take all the beating.
The horse ran badly on its last two runs - and its reputation took a bit of a battering. But those runs were over 3m and 2m1f - both the wrong distance for the horse, one being too short and the other too long. L'Antartique ran particularly badly in his last race over 2m1f at Newbury - dropping right out the back and looking pretty poor to anybody watching. In his defence he rallied in the closing stages of the race. But questions were asked.
The fact is he cries out for today's distance and those last two performances can be ignored. He's been aimed at this race all year and I expect Ferdy Murphy will have him bang on. The ground will not be a problem and I anticipate a massive run from the 8 year old. So much so, I'm almost minded to advise you to bet win only - but I'll leave that decision to your discretion.
Word to the wise: L'ANTARTIQUE's recent race times over course and distance mark him out as the one to beat this afternoon... his previous festival form is the cherry on the icing. Ryannair Chase, 2.55pm.
For the best odds, go to...
http://odds.sportsxtra.co.uk/horse-racing/cheltenham/day-3/2-55---ryanair-chase
Could this be a Pipe plot horse available at 20/1?
I'm a big fan of the big handicaps - and they don't get any bigger than the festival handicaps. They're not easy to puzzle out with plenty of runners and live contenders. But I like a challenge and with big prices available about horses with real 'live' chances, the potential rewards make the effort worthwhile.
The Racing Post Plate (4.05pm) is one race I like to get involved in. Only one favourite in the last 10 races has won (Majadou in 1999) and that's the kind of stat I like. It suggests we can look with some confidence for bigger price runners that the wider market is underestimating.
Martin Pipe literally farmed this race from 1997 to 2002 - winning it four times during that period. This year the Pipe Team - led these days by son, David - has entered LUICFER BLEU. It's had only a single race this term - running 3rd from 6 over 3m1f in a hurdle race at Kempton. Previous to that run the horse raced over fences, winning two over a similar distance to today's before running 4th against some classy opponents in the 2007 renewal of the Racing Post Chase over 3m at Kempton.
My reading of the form tells me the horse doesn't stay 3 miles. And I have more than a sneaky feeling that the drop back to today's trip of 2m4f will enable this horse to produce something unexpected - despite going up almost 20lbs in the weights for his Racing Post Chase performance. I certainly think he'll go a sight better and closer than some bookies are suggesting - available prices range from 14/1 to 28/1 (with Boylesports best priced at 28s). Another plus is jockey Tom Scudamore who is riding with real confidence at the moment.
I'll be backing the horse each-way to small stakes.
Word to the wise: Sometimes a horse just smells right... and LUCIFER BLEU smells like one who might produce more than his big price suggests. Boylesports go 28/1, Totesport 25s, Paddy Power 20s. Racing Post Plate, 4.05pm.
To check the latest odds, go to...
http://odds.sportsxtra.co.uk/horse-racing/cheltenham/day-3/4-05---racing-post-plate-handicap-chase
Keep on looking for reasons to oppose the short-priced hype horses....
As I outlined earlier in the week, the Cheltenham festival is fertile ground for false favourites. With festival races being more competitive than the market and elements of the media would have you believe, short prices generally overestimate the chances of the horse concerned.
With only a single day's racing behind us we've already seen three short-priced talking horses get stuffed - Noland, Sizing Europe and Wonder Kid. Over the next two days we can expect to see other surefire 'bankers' shot down in flames.
Of today's runners, Master Minded, Mossbank, Inglis Drever, Dont Push It and Zaarito look set to have their reputations tested to destruction at prices shorter than 4/1. By the end of the day I expect we will be able to add at least some of those names to our lengthening list of horses who failed to live up to their short-priced reputations.
Word to the wise: Look upon these overbet horses as friends. Being overbet they create opportunity - the opportunity to back 'live' opponents at bigger prices which underestimate their true chances of winning. That's value.
Until tomorrow, be lucky
12th March 2008
Good morning friends,
Today was due to be Coral Cup day - the first big handicap hurdle of the festival. But due to the high winds, the race has been re-scheduled to take place on Friday (at 1.40pm).
But this won't stop it being a red-hot betting heat - and it's a race I like to get stuck into.
Bear in mind that Bet365, Bluesq, Boylesports, Paddy Power and Coral all offer enhanced place terms on the race - 1/4 odds on the first five home. Be sure to get your each-way bets on with those firms. Bet elsewhere and you'll only be paid out the first four.
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Two trends and simple deduction pinpoint two 'live' ones in the Coral Cup ....
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Taking the time to dig around will help you avoid bad bets....
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And why a sledgehammer need never be part of a bettor's armory. To win long term we need to learn to lose well....
Look for 7 year olds with the right rating in the Coral Cup....
One thing to like about the Coral Cup is the record of favourites in the race. It's not good. In the last ten years only one favourite has obliged - Xenophon in 2003 at 4/1. Other renewals over the last decade have seen a succession of undervalued horses scupper some monster gambles at big prices.
The SPs of the other winners since 1997 have ranged from 13/2 to 33/1 - averaging out at almost 18/1. That's my kind of race, friends - full of live contenders at juicy prices.
That doesn't mean it's going to be easy. There's always a big field for the Coral Cup and this year is no exception with 28 set to go to post. However, my research over the past few weeks has identified a couple of trends which enable us to significantly reduce the field. And I've latched on to a couple of 'live' contenders with just the right profile at mouth-watering prices.
First off, per runner over the last decade it's the 7-year old participants who have proven to be the most competitive on my figures. Secondly, horses rated 135-139 on the BHB ratings and those rated 130 or under have been the most competitive.
Taken together, these trends enable us to discount the majority of the field and focus our attentions on the horses most likely to be competitive and give us a good run for our money - 7 year olds with the right official ratings.
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 Racing Post Ratings (RPR) are produced by the Racing Post. They measure the merit of a horse's performance in a specific race and are based on collateral form. If horse X beats horse Y in a race when both horses are carrying the same weight then horse X will be awarded a higher RPR. Ratings are expressed in pounds (lbs). A horse with an RPR of 150 is considered 12lbs better than a horse with an RPR of 138.
Official Ratings (OR) follow the same principles as RPRs. They are produced by the official handicappers who work for the British Horseracing Board (BHB). The OR is used to determine the weights horses will carry in handicap races. OR ratings reflect what a horse has achieved prior to going into a race as opposed to what it achieves in a race.
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Leg Spinner fits the profile but doesn't make much appeal at his short price - despite the fact that Tony Martin (trainer of the last winning favourite, Xenophon) saddles the horse.
Bedlam Boy qualifies but is carrying too much weight. Only one winner in the last 10 years, Sky's the Limit, has been saddled with as much or more lead. Pablo Du Charmil lacks experience in big fields and I believe this will find him out.
Which leaves PYLEIGH LADY and NAIAD DU MISSELOT. Both look laid out for the race - only having had two runs apiece this season. I'll be splitting my stake and backing both horses each-way.
At time of writing Pyleigh Lady can be backed at a very healthy 40/1 with Victor Chandler and Paddy Power (who are paying 1/4 odds on the 1st five home!). Naiad Du Misselot is best priced 8/1 with Paddy Power.
Note: Due to the re-scheduling of the race until Friday, not all bookmakers have their markets up. Check again on Friday morning for a full list.
Word to the wise: 7-year olds and horses rated 130 or below have a record of being very competitive in the Coral Cup ... taken together these trends point to PYLEIGH LADY at 40/1 and NAIAD DU MISSELOT at 8/1. Remember to back them both each-way.
Muirhead was a loser on Monday night never mind Tuesday afternoon....
Muirhead was well fancied for yesterday's Supreme Novices' Hurdle. He was well tipped up. For example, Marcus Armytage writing in the Irish Independent on Tuesday morning highlighted his chances. Muirhead's price contracted just before the off - owing to a flood of supporting money. The horse was sent off as 8/1 co-favourite.
Personally, I couldn't believe what I was seeing and I wasn't in the least bit surprised when the horse failed to travel a yard, finished 12th of 19 finishers and was beaten almost 47 lengths in the process. Not because I'm some kind of know-it-all genius but because I'd read that the horse wouldn't win (or words to that effect) the night before the race was run.
That's right. You didn't misread that. I did say the night before.
That's when I read a Press Association report quoting Noel Meade (Muirhead's trainer) as saying: 'He (Muirhead) hasn't been eating as much as we would have liked him to over the last couple of days since he travelled over, but hopefully that will be OK. I would like to see him eat a bit more than he has been doing, but he is drinking. It's the first time he's been away.'
The Irish Independent went further, quoting Meade as saying the horse was 'lighter' then he would like.
Horses that don't eat don't win races - certainly not at the highest level. It's that simple. And the information was available to anybody who cared to look the night before the race took place. We can only assume - given yesterday's events - that large swathes of the market don't care to look. The bookies must have been laughing themselves stupid. I guarantee you that the bookies would have been aware of the horse's less than ideal preparations.
Muirhead was a shocking bet. A real stinker. But it's too late now for those who lumped on him. They've already done their dough.
Word to the wise: The morale of the story is simple and straightforward. Taking the time and trouble to look into things - doing a bit of work and establishing the facts - can help you avoid bad bets.
Is this the world's worst loser....?
To win at racing - or any other form of gambling - requires a certain temperament.
Not all punters possess it.
Take, as an extreme example, John McCormac of Ballyfermot who lost 2 euros on a horse in a Paddy Power bookmaker shop, took a taxi home, picked up a sledgehammer, returned to the shop and smashed the place up (destroying 27 television screens) causing 17,835 euros worth of damage in the process. A Paddy Power spokesman said 'That's the first time we've had someone go berserk.'
I don't know Mr McCormac personally. But I can tell you he isn't cut out for the racing game.
Winning at the racing is a long-term game. And losing is part of that game. As racing punters we acknowledge and accept that we are going to experience losing runs. To survive we must know how to lose well. One thing is for sure - we will get plenty of practice. Nobody can pick the winner of every race. Nor every other race. Nor every 3rd race - consistently.
The trick - and the best we can hope for - is to intersperse the losers we inevitably back with sufficient winning bets at sufficiently good prices to turn a profit over the long-term. That must always be our objective.
Hopefully the winds will have died down at Cheltenham tomorrow and we'll have a full card. Until then, be lucky.
P.S. For a run-down of the rescheduled race cards for Thursday and Friday, check out...
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/other_sports/horse_racing/7268828.stm
Tuesday 11th March 2008
Welcome to Horse Racing Focus - and the first of your daily Festival specials.
Cheltenham provides the best four-days of racing on the calendar - bar none. Twenty-five races, £3 million in prize money up for grabs and EVERY runner and rider guaranteed to be performing at their absolute maximum.
For the next four days we can walk tall with a spring in our step and hope in our hearts. And with a bit of luck - cash in our wallets!
I'll be writing to you every day this week. Providing unique insight and analysis on the big races, to give you a winning edge.
In today's Horse Racing Focus...
Age and experience point us towards undervalued horses in the Champion Hurdle and the William Hill Handicap.... And why you should be punting each-way at the festival....
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An overlooked trend says AFSOUN is too big at 25/1 for the Champion Hurdle....
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Take NEW ALCO to build on last year's efforts when trends were against him....
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The nature of the festival demands Each-Way betting....
The past can teach us much about the present - especially in the field of prediction.
I've been hard at work for a few weeks now analyzing past festival races and looking for hidden trends. I'm delighted to bring you details of exactly where my money will be today... and why...
An overlooked and compelling trend in the Champion Hurdle....
See You Then, Night Nurse and Persian War are three of the best hurdlers to grace a racecourse in the last 40 years. They're also the last three horses to win a Champion Hurdle at the tender age of 5 - in 1985, 1976 and 1968 respectively.
Since See You Then's 1985 success, 73 five year olds have lined up in the Champion Hurdle. All have failed to win. It's a compelling statistic - one that stands squarely against the chances of Katchit and Punjabi in today's renewal. As a rule, five year-olds tend to lack the maturity to win the big one.
However, my research has uncovered a useful trend concerning 5 year old runners in the Champion Hurdle - a trend that points us towards a great value bet in this year's renewal.
Horses that run in the Champion Hurdle as five year olds and then return to run in a subsequent renewal tend to do very well - measuring up to and/or improving on their previous effort. The experience of running in the race as a five year old stands them in good stead for a more meaningful assault on the hurdling title as they mature in years and grow stronger.
Look at the evidence over the last 10 Champion Hurdles. There are only four examples but they build a strong case:
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In 1997 Theatreworld ran in the race as a 5 year old finishing 2nd and earning an RPR of 162. Returning in 1998 Theatreworld ran up to form finishing 2nd again and earning an RPR of 159.
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I'm Supposin' also ran as a 5 year old in 1997 finishing 4th with an RPR of 159. In 1998, as a 6 year old, the horse went one better finishing 3rd with an RPR of 158.
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In 2000 Hors La Loi finished 2nd with an RPR of 166+. In 2002 (there was no race in 2001, the year of foot-and-mouth) Hors La Loi won the Champion Hurdle with an identical RPR of 166+.
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In 2005 Al Eile finished 7th with an RPR of 160. In 2006 Al Eile ran 4th earning the same RPR.
All of which makes me very bullish about the chances of AFSOUN in this year's race. Last year, as a 5 year old, Afsoun ran 3rd earning an RPR of 165 and finishing the race so well he would have snatched 2nd from previous champion, Brave Inca, given just a few more strides.
Trained by the top festival trainer, Nicky Henderson, having won his last race (another key trend of Champion Hurdle winners), capable of acting on any ground and proven to get up the Cheltenham hill in fine style, AFSOUN appears to be grossly undervalued and overpriced at 25/1 generally to go close this time. He's a real each-way value bet. And that's where my shilling is today.
Word to the wise: Participants with a run as a 5 year old do very well on their return at 6... and AFSOUN demands to be taken at 25/1. He'll be charging up the Cheltenham Hill at the finish when many of his opponents have cried 'enough'. Good performances from Katchit and/or Punjabi augur well for their chances of taking the title next year!
Get on last year's young pretender at a nice price in the William Hill....
For similar reasons I've taken a fancy to NEW ALCO in the William Hill Handicap. Six year olds have a poor record in the race. Ferdy Murphy's charge was 6 years old last year when he finished 6th of 23 in last year's renewal having been sent off the 7/1 co favourite. As the youngest horse in the race his performance was impressive.
This year New Alco is carrying 4lb less on his back. His BHB rating of 145 places him squarely in the ratings band that has produced most competitive performances per runner over the last 10 years. And with another year's strengthening under his belt I expect the horse to improve on last year's effort. I'm delighted to be able to back him each-way at the generally available 12/1.
Word to the wise: NEW ALCO's solid effort as a 6 year old last year promises more this year... and at a better price.
At the festival it pays to play Each-Way....
With every horse trying and every race contested by multiple 'live' contenders finding festival winners is tough. A horse could run the race of its life at the festival and still only place. For that reason I like to back competitive horses each-way at big prices.
Overbet hype horses are a common phenomenon at the festival and this assists my strategy. When a horse is overbet it creates value elsewhere in the market. Horses with real chances are available at juicy prices which significantly underestimate their true chances of winning and/or placing - making each-way punts on them a very attractive proposition. My two fancies for today are cases in point.
Word to the wise: Take advantage of the larger market's tendency to overreact to hype horses. Back undervalued horses each-way at big prices and make the festival pay.
Until tomorrow, be lucky.
7th March 2008
A look at the Cheltenham Festival 2008
Some basic methods sort the probables from the possibles.... and a reminder that there's no such thing as a 'cert' at the Festival.....
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Latch on to fluent jumpers....
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Identify horses with sufficient reserves of stamina....
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Opposing short-price festival horses can pay dividends....
Cheltenham Festival 2008 is upon us - the best four days of the racing year bar none. This is the championship fixture of National Hunt racing attracting only the best UK and Irish horses in training and a fair contingent of foreign hopefuls. Twenty-five races and approximately £3 million in prize money up for grabs. If that prospect doesn't put a smile on a racing punter's face then nothing will.
But will we still be smiling at the end of it?
The Festival is notorious for being a graveyard for punters'. Hardly surprising. Every runner has been aimed at the festival and tuned to be pitch perfect on the day. Every single runner is trying - guaranteed. Not a single runner is being 'saved' for some future prize or being given an easy 'blow'. The result? Highly competitive races with multiple 'live' contenders.
Picking winners isn't easy. However, bearing in mind some of the unique challenges the Cheltenham course presents can help you avoid latching onto losers and get you onto the scent of probables.
Latch on to fluent jumpers....
There are no long flat sections at left-handed Cheltenham. The course is undulating - meaning they go up hill and down dale. To stand any chance of being competitive, horses need to be well balanced and capable of jumping cleanly at speed whilst travelling on the downhill sections. As befits championship racing - this isn't easy.
On the old course there's a downhill run to the final turn and just one fence in the straight before the short uphill run to the finishing line. It's this short uphill run to the finish which forces jockeys to make their move on the preceding downhill stretch. This can cause errors at the 3rd and 2nd last fences - where so many festival dreams have taken a tumble in the past - with horses travelling quicker than they might like as they approach fences. The new course has only a single fence on the downhill section but this can still prove tricky.
The bottom line is that any horse lacking fluency in its jumping is likely to be found out - losing too much ground through errors or exiting the race altogether. When it comes to punting you can do yourself a real favour by taking the time to go through the runners and weed out those who don't measure up to the standard required.
Scrutinising the 'comments in-running' earned by individual runners in their recent races will quickly alert you to clunkers. Horses with a recent history of blundering, hitting fences, losing ground at fences or outright falling are not fit for purpose. Strike a line through their names.
The Cheltenham Festival is no place for learners. The fences are amongst the stiffest and most challenging in racing - and will need to be addressed at red-hot speed. Any horse can be forgiven the odd blunder but serial offenders must be discounted for betting purposes at the Festival. Their flaws will be ruthlessly exposed.
Word to the wise: back dodgy jumpers and your hopes of making a profit will take a nosedive.
Latch on to horses with proven stamina...
The famous Cheltenham hill ruthlessly exposes any flaws in a horse's stamina. Be sure that any horse you back has sufficient proven stamina to get up the hill and see out the trip. Festival races are invariably run at a searching pace throughout and this is sure to find out horses who don't get the trip or that those only just get it.
A lot of professionals will tell you that to win a Champion Hurdle over 2 miles a horse really needs sufficient reserves of stamina be able to stay 2 and a half miles. Brave Inca and Hardy Eustace, both recent winners, bear this line of thinking out.
It pays to apply the same logic to all festival races. When looking through the recent form of runners, take time to identify those who have been struggling to get home over the distance they'll be racing over at the festival. The strong likelihood is that they will not be challenging or running on up the Cheltenham hill at the end of a race run at red-hot pace.
It pays to keep on the right side of horses with previous good form at Cheltenham - particularly Festival form. This stands to reason - these horses have already proven they have the necessary stamina to compete at the course. When assessing Irish runners, good form at Navan and Naas is a strong indication that a horse will get up the Cheltenham hill. Both tracks have similar stiff, uphill runs to the finish.
Word to the wise: Make sure your horse is a stayer. If it hasn't got sufficient stamina to get home, making a profit will turn into an uphill battle you just can't win.
Opposing short-price festival horses pays dividends...
The Cheltenham Festival is particularly fertile ground for finding false favourites to lay or oppose. The big races attract maximum press and TV interest and certain horses get focused on more than others (after all the press has to produce stories). The betting public tends to latch on to these horses and overbet them. It's often irrational. And the short price generally overestimates the chances of the horse concerned.
Take a look at Cheltenham 2007 - just one illustration of my point. Of horses sent off by the market at odds of 4/1 or lower, only Kauto Star, Wichita Lineman, Denman and Heads On the Ground obliged - justifying the market view. But just take a look at the horses that didn't live up to the pre-race billing of the press and the market:
Amaretto Rose 2/1
Fair Along 100/30
Detroit City 6/4
Aran Concerto 5/2
Well Chief Evs
Mad Fish 4/1
New Little Bric 7/2
Monets Garden 7/4
Black Jack Ketchum 2/1
Opera Mundi 7/2
Gungadu 2/1
Lounaos 7/2
Whyso Mayo 2/1
Saintsaire 5/2
Fair Along (again) 3/1
What this tells us is that the big races are generally more competitive than the market would suggest - fertile ground for finding value price winners or opposing hype horses on the exchanges. Don't get sucked into the view that a horse can't lose. Short prices are not synonymous with certainty. Every race is being contested by multiple 'live' runners. Opposing over-valued horses can pay handsome dividends.
Right now horses like Noland, Sizing Europe, Wonder Kid, Master Minded, Twist Magic, Inglis Drever, Franchoek and Chomba Womba look set to comprise this year's 'unbeatable' talking horses. History tells us some, if not all, will be stuffed and fail to justify their short prices. Look upon them as your friends. Their short prices create value elsewhere.
Word to the wise: Buying blindly into market hype can hit you where it most hurts - in the pocket.
Build these considerations into your selection process and you'll avoid a lot of losers and find yourself on the right side of the right kind of horses.... at tasty prices.
Until next time, be lucky.
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