Directory of Past issues - March 2009

3rd March - Three things you must do before betting on Cheltenham Handicaps

10th March - Cheltenham - day one: A 16/1 with everything in its favour

11th March - Cheltenham - day two: The heads-up on today's races

12th March - Cheltenham - day three: Three to watch the RyanAir and World Hurdle

13th March - Cheltenham - day four: Key trends to follow on the final day

17th March - Cheltenham again proves to be a Layers festival

24th March - A rare opportunity ahead of the flat season

31st March - Why the Grand National is NOT a lottery

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3rd March 2009

Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus...

• Numbers, edges, angles and insights...
  
• Playing the percentage game with the Festival handicaps...
  
• Age, weight and price give you the best chance...

Numbers, edges, angles and insight...

I spend a lot of time looking at numbers. I sift and sort datasets
so that I'm looking at something the rest of the market isn't. I
shake up the stats and look at them in new and unique ways. I want
to be working from information that the next man doesn't have
access to.

My objective is always to find a fresh perspective, to get an edge,
to identify angles I can base bets on, to obtain insight about
horses, circumstances or events that I otherwise wouldn't and to
make observations which help me play the percentage game when it
comes to splitting fields and taking a view about a race.

Sometimes my research and testing bears fruit - pointing at obvious
bets or things to swerve and avoid. At other times it is less than
conclusive. But even where the latter is the case, it can still
prove instructive and worthwhile.

This week I've been looking at the Festival handicaps. More
specifically I've been looking at the winners of the major Festival
handicaps since 2004 - the handicap events not designed for novices
and juveniles. I'm talking about the following races:

• William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase (Tue)
  
• Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Wed)
  
• Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Wed)
  
• Racing Post Plate Handicap Chase (Thu)
  
• Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle (Thu)
  
• Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup (Fri)
  
• County Handicap Hurdle (Fri)
  

Playing the percentage game with the Festival handicaps...

Since 2004 there have been five winners of each race giving me 35
horses in total to look at and test. By taking these winners as a
single group what I hoped to identify were some quick and dirty
methods we could use to split the big fields the festival handicap
races generally produce.

Not everybody can spend Festival week at the course or in front of
the TV (some people have proper jobs, for example). So when looking
at these big fields with a view to striking a bet it can save
valuable time if you're equipped to play the percentage game and
eliminate specific horses from your deliberations at a glance -
based on aspects of their profile like age, races this season, days
off track, weight to be carried and price.

None of these things on their own will point us directly at winners
- but, and this is why I spend so much time engaged in just this
type of research, they can help point you towards groups of horses
it pays to focus more of your attention on and away from those it
does not.

Age and weight considerations...

Let's look at age first. Of the 35 big festival handicaps since
2004, the ages of the winning horses break down like this:

What can we draw from these figures? The first thing is that older
horses are not the best bets in these races. The veterans have
produced just 4 winners from 35. The percentage call is to strike
horses of 10, 11 or older from consideration. You'll miss the odd
winner but you'll miss a sight more losers.

The younger horses do win the big handicaps. Taken together 5 and
6-year olds have won just under 25% of the handicap races we're
looking at. But where finding density of winners is concerned,
horses aged 7, 8 or 9 are the most fruitful territory to focus on -
producing 23 winners from 35 races (or just over 65%).

Where weight is concerned I've got just one thing to say - but it's
pretty important. Horses carrying big weight burdens should be
avoided in these races. Of the 35 races I looked at only 5 of them
were won by horses carrying 11-stones or more on their backs.

I don't think this trend is down to the demanding nature of the
Cheltenham course. I think it's more a question of exposure. The
horses carrying the biggest burdens were, by definition, further up
the handicap scale than those carrying lighter weights. They'd
already shown their ability and the official handicapper had
allotted his rating accordingly.

The winning horses further down the weight scale perhaps hadn't
shown their true ability. Maybe they had something in hand on the
handicapper and were running off a rating that underestimated their
true ability and the weight they should carry? Maybe they'd been
lightly raced or given an easy time until the big day came round?
These are theories and nothing more. But, if the past is any guide
to the future, carrying less than 11-stone is a definite advantage.

Races this season and days off track...

I had hoped that looking at how many races our winners had run
throughout the season leading up to the festival would prove
instructive. But it wasn't as conclusive as I'd have liked.

Before I conducted the research I predicted that the winners would
be relatively lightly raced. My thinking was that a lot of the
winners would have been specifically prepared for Cheltenham, kept
out of the handicapper's spotlight and wouldn't have had too hard a
season. But that wasn't how the results panned out.

Ten of the horses in my test groups had raced 6 or 7 times in the
run up to their Festival win - which amounts to a quite a workload.
On balance the percentage call is to draw the line at 4 runs for
the season. Of the 35 winners 21 had run 4 times or less that
season

More informative for our purposes is the break the horses had
directly before their race at the Festival. 26 of the 35 winners
had been off the track for no more than 42 days before winning at
Cheltenham. Only 3 winners had been off the track in excess of 100
days.

The best price band to play in...

Prices in the test group ranged between 4/1 and 66/1 - with 8
winners bigger than 33/1. That tells you something about the
competitive nature of these races and how difficult they can be for
punters to puzzle out. But drawing the line at 14/1 and avoiding
horses going off bigger is the best advice. That group produced 23
of the 35 winners.

One horse out of the last 35 winners of the big Festival handicaps
defied all but one of these micro-trends to win his race. He did it
at age 11, carrying 11-7, he'd had 6 races in the build up to the
race and he went off at 66/1. It was Mister McGoldrick in last
year's Racing Post Plate. No wonder he went past the winning post
in complete and utter silence - not a soul on-course had backed
him.

My concluding advice to those who want a quick and dirty method to
find the winners of these races is to stick to the age, weight and
price trends. The group of horses aged 7, 8 or 9, carrying less
than 11 stone and going off at 14/1 or less produced 18 of the
winners of the 35 races I looked at. That should give you something
to work with.

I'll be back over the weekend with some thoughts on the jocks.

Until then, be lucky.

10th March 2009

Good morning, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus...

• Two reasons to take Binocular on...
  
• The 16/1 shot with everything in its favour...
  
• Consider this value big-field specialist...
  
• The men in form going into the Festival...

The long wait is over. The Cheltenham Festival and the best four
days in the racing calendar are upon us! There's a lot to get
through in this morning's letter. So, without further ado...

Two reasons to take Binocular on...

Binocular has headed the Champion Hurdle market for months. In some
quarters he's being referred to as the new Istabraq. Right now he's
5/4 to take the hurdling crown this afternoon. Nobody can deny that
the animal is a speedy and fluent hurdler. But, despite his
undoubted talent, I'm happy to oppose him at 5/4 on the basis of
two combined circumstances.

Firstly, Binocular remains relatively inexperienced with just 6
hurdle races to his credit. Nine of the last 10 Champion Hurdlers
had contested at least 9 hurdle races. Secondly, this afternoon's
Champion Hurdle field is the biggest in years with 24 confirmed
runners.

Sublimity is the only horse which has bucked the first trend -
winning the crown off just 6 runs in 2007. But it's interesting to
note that the inexperienced horse completed this feat in the
smallest Champion Hurdle field in the last decade - just ten
runners. The average field size over the last 10 years is 14.7. The
biggest field was 18 in 1998 and 2006. Binocular faces 23 rivals
this afternoon.

I'm not saying Binocular is unsuited to a big field. At the
Festival last year he finished 2nd of 22 in the Supreme Novices´
Hurdle. But the Champion Hurdle should be a step up from that and
he'll be facing a field containing more battle-hardened horses than
he did that day.

Binocular is a small horse too. In such a big field he will be
buffeted, bumped and surrounded by plenty of bigger horses. Will
his fluent hurdling stand up to the pressure? Will his heart be big
enough?

Take Katchit to retain his crown...

At 5/4 I'm happy to oppose him - and wager that one or two might
prove too good or too experienced for him on the day. And I'll be
opposing him with two horses which I feel are patently suited to
today's circumstances and conditions.

Firstly, I'm going to back Katchit to retain his crown. That
selection might surprise some because Katchit has disappointed in
his 3 races this season. I'll come to those races in a moment.
Before I do that I want to say that no horse in the race has a
better record at Cheltenham than Katchit. He's won 5 and finished
2nd once in his 6 starts at the course. Course form matters. We
know that Katchit can get up that hill.

Katchit is also suited by the big field. He remains undefeated in
races with 9 or more runners with 7 wins from 7 attempts. His
record in races over anything beyond 2 miles is also excellent with
9 wins from 10 efforts. Today's race is run over 2 miles 110 yards.

If you're going to back Katchit you want to catch him on a left
handed course in a big field. Those are the conditions he faces
today. Where you don't want to back him is on a right handed course
in a small field. His three races this season have confronted him
with just that set of circumstances. That's why I'm happy to ignore
them.

Katchit has never failed to make the 1st 3 in a Class 1 race -
today's race is a class 1. From 10 runs he's had 6 wins, two 2nds
and two 3rds. Trainer Alan King reported last week that Katchit is
showing up well at home. And there's no doubt that Katchit can
handle today's ground. At a best price 16/1 he's a steal and I'll
be backing him each-way.

I'll also be playing this big field specialist...

My objective is to make a profit on the race and, in addition to
backing Katchit, I'll also be putting a few pennies each-way on a
big-priced, big field specialist...

Snap Tie is a 6-year old trained by Paul Cole. He's had 5 career
runs in fields of 17+ and his form figures look like this: 12213.
He also handles Cheltenham. His 6 runs at the course have seen him
win one, finish second 3 times and third once in last year's
Supreme Novices´ Hurdle - where he was in with a squeak of winning
at the last. He obviously appreciates the fast pace a big field
generates and at a best priced 50/1 with Coral I think he's
underestimated and represents a bit of each-way value.

Winning form coming into the Festival...

Winning breeds confidence and confidence is a good frame of mind to
be coming into the Festival with. It pays to take note of who is in
that frame of mind and which strings seem to be going well right
now.

The best are not known as the best for no reason and AP McCoy is
certainly peaking at the right time. In the last 14 days he's
kicked home 14 winners from 37 runners at a huge strike rate of
37.8%.  A whopping 56.8% of his mounts have finished in the places.

My two picks for the top jockey at the Festival are also coming
into the Festival in decent form. Over the last 14 days Robert
Thornton has 8 winners from 36 rides - with 55.6% of his rides
finishing in the places. Over the last 7 days he's kicked 66% of
his rides into the frame. Barry Geraghty has 4 winners from 17
runners and 52.9% of rides finishing placed.

Other notables at the time of writing are Richard Johnson with 8
winners from 38 runners and 50% finishing placed. And Timmy O'Brien
is going well too with 7 winners from 25 runners and 52% of his
rides over the last 14 days finishing placed.

One rider who has ridden into a purple patch in the last 7 days is
Graham Lee with 7 winners from 24 runners at a strike rate of 29.2%

The strings coming to hand...

Alan King's string is going well. Over the last 14 days he's
saddled 13 winners from 49 runners - with 55.1% making the frame.
Over the last 7 days that figure rises to 68.8%. Good news for
those of us who've backed Robert Thornton to be top jockey.

Tom George's string is also flying. Over the same period he's sent
out 7 winners from 13 - with a whopping 69.2% finishing in a place.
Tartak, running in the Arkle, looks his best chance today. Jonjo O'
Neill, Nicky Henderson and the Hobbs strings also look to be going
decently.

Those are the men who have their strings firing as we go into
Festival week. All will be revealed from 1.30pm today. Bring it on!

Until tomorrow morning, be lucky.

11th March 2009

Good morning, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus...

• A quick look at the Champion Hurdle...
  
• Yesterday's good news...
  
• Where I'm at with the RSA...
  
• Strong trends for the Ballymore Properties Novice Hurdle...
  
• What fits the bill for the Coral Cup?...
  
• It matters most who your money is on with...

There's a lot to say and limited space to say it. So...

A quick look at the Champion Hurdle...

My picks for the Champion Hurdle both got into the top third of
finishers but didn't get into the frame. Hats off to Punjabi - last
year's 3rd place finisher. It was some finish off the fast pace.

The horse to note is 2nd placed Celestial Halo. Along with Hardy
Eustace and Osana, he set that blistering pace. But whilst the
other two cried enough and dropped back through the field,
Celestial Halo battled all the way to the line to be denied by
Punjabi's late surge and a neck - a fabulous effort.

Now for the good news...

My quick and dirty guide to identifying selections in the major
handicaps led a number of you to Wicheta Lineman (5/1) and Nenuphar
Collonges (17/2) each-way in the William Hill Handicap Chase.
Congratulations if you got on. Wicheta Lineman backers should raise
a glass to A P McCoy. After the horse had traded at 60.0 in-play on
the exchanges, McCoy did all but get off and carry the horse up the
hill to win. Fantastic ride. 

Connections scratched Star De Mohaison from this race. He'll be
rerouted to the Gold Cup. If, like me, you've backed him for
Friday's race, let's pray for better ground.

Forpadydeplasterer, Wicheta Lineman, Punjabi and Grand Champetre
all underlined the significance of previous good Festival form with
their wins. So too Kalahari King and Celestial Halo with their 2nd
placed efforts. Bear this in mind for the remainder of the week -
it's a pattern likely to be repeated.

Barry Geraghty didn't let me down either. With two wins on the
first day he heads the Top Jockey standings. I backed him at 8/1.
He's now a best-priced 3/1. Robert Thornton drew a blank (though he
was 2nd in the Supreme Novices and 3rd in the William Hill). Alan
King says his best hopes run later in the week. So I'm not writing
'Choc' off just yet.

Second and third places are important. The Top Jockey is decided on
the basis of wins. In a tie then a countback of 2nd and 3rd places
applies. Here's how the major players are looking at this early
stage:

Moving swiftly on...

Where I'm at with the RSA Chase...

I made a case for Ballyfitz each-way for this race at 33/1 on
February 27th. The horse has shortened since and I've taken the
opportunity to lay the win portion of my bet on the exchanges at
22.0. I now have a 12 point bet to nothing running for me. If you
backed Ballyfitz then I advise you to do the same because two
things worry me.

One, Ballyfitz likes to run from the front. Having seen how
Tuesday's races panned out I feel he's vulnerable to hold-up horses
on the softish ground. Secondly, I'm concerned about Nigel-Twiston
Davies's string. He can't buy a winner at the moment. His runners
yesterday give us little encouragement. Three pulled up. One
finished 8th and the other 12th. He's had a single winner from 27
runners over the last 14 days.

Having protected my win stake on Ballyfitz I'm backing Massini's
Maguire each-way. He's got previous Festival form and there's no
doubt he'll handle the ground. The Hobbs yard is going well too. In
the last 14 days his 38 runners have produced 7 winners at 18.4% -
42% of these runners have made the frame. Massini's Maguire is
generally available at 12/1.

Strong Trends in the Ballymore Novice Hurdle...

Go Native's win in yesterday's opener confirmed some strong trends
in the Novice hurdle events. Like 24 of the previous 30 winners of
these races, (the Supreme, today's Ballymore Properties and
Friday's Triumph Hurdle) Go Native was going into the race off the
back of a win. And like 28 of the 30 previous winners he was going
into his Festival race boasting a 50% or better win strike rate.

Those trends offer us a strong steer when looking for competitive
horses in today's race- eight qualify. Karabak is current race
favourite - and one of the qualifiers. He beat Somersby's back in
January and that form was franked yesterday with Somersby's 3rd
placing in the Supreme Novices.

However, the McCoy factor might be at work where the 11/4 price is
concerned and I'm leaving that alone. Karabak has already been
beaten by Mad Max at Ascot in November. Trained by Nicky
Henderson's whose hurdlers have been on fire this year, I prefer to
take the 13/2 available about him with bet365 and Totesport.

The other one I like is the Nick Williams horse, Diamond Harry.
He's unbeaten in 6. He's been tested and not found wanting in G1
company. He acts at the course, on the going and at the trip. He's
9/2 and appears to be drifting as I write. I can't see why. If he
were trained by a 'name' he'd be favourite. Williams hasn't had
many runners recently - but he's had two go decently on the AW and
Maljimar was very unfortunate to be beaten into 2nd by Wicheta
Lineman yesterday. 

I'll be splitting my stake, backing both to win only and expecting
to strike with one or the other.

Two for the Coral Cup...

We found the winner of this last year in Naiad Du Misselot. It's a
race I like to get stuck into. My quick and dirty field splitting
method conforms to recent trends in the big Festival handicaps and
is designed to help me play the percentages. It enables me to
significantly reduce the field and produce a shortlist of
probables.

I'm looking for 7, 8 or 9 year olds carrying less than 11-0 and
trading at 14/1 or less in the market. Right now Ambobo at a best
price 11/1 and Psycho at a best price 8/1 fit the bill. Both have
Festival form. Ambobo was 6th of 20 in last year's Jewson Novices'
Handicap Chase. Psycho was 2nd in the 2008 renewal of the County
Hurdle. Both look to have been laid out for this - and shouldn't
have any problems with conditions.

As ever I offer my own picks not as 'tips' you should automatically
follow - but more as an insight into how I work and the methods I
use to identify betting opportunities. Feel free to follow,
disagree and/or oppose. We all have an opinion. The betting markets
would be dull territory if we didn't. Whatever you do, whatever
you're backing, I wish you all the best of British.

It matters most who your money's on with...

Kudos to bet365, Totesport and William Hill who gave punters a
fighting chance in the Champion Hurdle yesterday by going 1/4 1-2-
3-4 places. Most firms went 1/4 1-2-3. But one firm that should
hang its head in abject shame are Skybet who stood alone, stuck to
the each-way 'rules' and went 1/5 1-2-3. Pure greed, folks. There's
no other explanation. Vote with your feet. Don't bet using the red
button.

There are plenty of firms offering enhanced places, best odds
guaranteed, free bets, cashbacks and all manner of other
concessions throughout the Festival. Shop around for the best bet
you can get. Check the press and the bookie websites. Little bits
and pieces gained here and there add up to a big result at the end
of the week.

Don't forget the Tote either. The Tote win payout beat the SP in 17
out of 25 Festival races in 2008. Yesterday Tote win dividends beat
the SP in 4 of the 6 races.

Until tomorrow, be lucky.

12th March 2009

Good morning, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus...

• A good price for the Gold Cup... 2010!
  
• A Sire that's having a good Festival...
  
• The battle between fav backers and short-price layers...
  
• Runners from the race that produces most Festival winners...
  
• The one I'm on for the RyanAir...
  
• The two I'm on for the World Hurdle...
  
• Something for the Handicap players...

Willie Mullins and Cooldine...

Willie Mullins had a great day yesterday - becoming joint-top
current Irish trainer at the Festival along with Edward O'Grady.
Wins with Mikael D'haguenet and Cooldine in addition to a win with
Quevega on Tuesday take his career total to 15 wins. Despite having
a likely 8 runners still to come this week, it's no certainty he'll
hit the back of the net again. None are particularly fancied in the
markets.

Cooldine's win was exceptional - beating 2nd place Horner Woods by
16 lengths with Massini's Maguire a further 9 lengths back in
third. Since the turn of the Century only Denman has won the RSA by
a double figure distance or anywhere close to it - 10 lengths in
2007. The following year he confirmed his class by winning the Gold
Cup.

Bearing in mind that Kauto, Denman, Neptune and the rest of the
current crop will be another year older come next year's renewal,
the 10/1 with Hills for Cooldine to win the 2010 Gold Cup looks
like a nice price to me. And if you can get bigger - then even
better.

Ruby Walsh and a kick in the guts...

After riding the Mullins pair Walsh took the Champion Chase as
expected on Master Minded. That puts him on 4 wins for the meeting
and means he replaces Barry Geraghty at the head of the Top Jockey
standings. Geraghty only chalked up a single 3rd place (on Petit
Robin) from his 5 rides - to add to Tuesday's 2 wins. McCoy added a
2nd place to his win and one 3rd on Tuesday.

As for Robert Thornton: he drew a blank and got a hefty kick in the
stomach when falling on Big Zeb in the Champion Chase. He missed
his last two rides - one of them, Saticon, finishing 3rd under sub
Wayne Hutchinson. Them's the breaks. Thornton will need to be
cleared by course doctors to be back in the plate today. He's
booked for Voy Por Ustedes amongst others.

It's all in the blood...

It's been a cracking 48 hours for Presenting and his progeny. On
Tuesday Drombeag took 3rd place in the Cross Country. Yesterday
Horner Woods ran a cracker to take 2nd in the RSA at 66/1. In the
Champion Bumper Dunguib and Some Present finished 1st and 2nd. The
winner looked particularly impressive - winning at a canter. If he
takes to fences, he'll be some machine.

For those who might like to run the rule over the blood that's
doing the business, Presenting has a few more offspring out today. 
Crescent Island and Slash And Burn represent him in the Jewson
Novices' Chase. Ballydub and The Sliotar run in the Pertemps Final.
Whatuthink is the rank outsider in the World Hurdle. Silverburn
flies the flag in the Freddie Williams Festival Plate. Presenting
has more entries for Friday.

Battle of the layers and the fav backers...

In the last two Festivals it's been profitable for exchange layers
to oppose horses trading at 4/1 or lower in the final minutes
heading up to the off. In 2007 26 horses went off at 4/1 or less
and only 5 won. In 2008 24 horses went off at short prices and only
5 won.

It's not so clear cut this year. Short price backers and short
priced layers are pretty much neck and neck at the end of day two.
So far there have been 14 runners at 4/1 or less. Nine have failed
to live up to their prices. Five have won (going in at 7/2, 2/1,
5/2, 9/4 and 4/11) more than wiping out the profit from successful
lays.

Looking at the overnight markets for today's racing it looks like
the next battles in this war will be fought over Voy Por Ustedes,
Kasbah Bliss and Punchestowns. Unless something else on tomorrow's
card receives some monster support from the market, that might be
it for Thursday.

The race that produces most Festival winners...

... is the King George VI Chase run at Kempton on Boxing Day. Over
the last two decades 15 Festival winners contested the race earlier
in the season. No race on the calendar has a better record.

Runners from this season's King George field will be appearing
thick and fast over the next two days - many of them contesting the
same races.

Voy Por Ustedes, Imperial Commander and Our Vic contest the RyanAir
Chase today.

Kauto Star, Albertas Run, Air Force One and Snoopy Loopy will be
running in the Gold Cup on Friday.

Gwanako for the RyanAir Chase...

I backed Gwanako each-way for today's RyanAir chase back in
February. I got on him at 16/1 and had hoped his price would
shorten. It hasn't - he's still 16/1. But nothing has altered my
view or led me to look elsewhere.

Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh developed the habit of finding the
right horse for this relatively new addition to the Festival.
They've won it twice - with Thisthatandtother in 2005 and Taranis
in 2007. Last year they saddled Turko to a 3rd place finish.

Gwanako has previous Festival form going for him - a 2nd place
performance in last year's renewal of the Racing Post Plate. Having
watched him race last year I feel he's open to sufficient
improvement to surprise a few in what is a Championship event for
the two and a half milers.

I'm already on for the World Hurdle...

I also picked out my runners for the World Hurdle in February. I
backed Fair Along each-way at 12/1 and had a small play on
Mobaasher each-way at 33/1. Neither price has altered - but nor has
my view.

Fair Along loves the track. From 12 career runs at Cheltenham he's
won 4 times, finished second 3 times and finished 3rd 4 times. He
always seems to run his race on the undulations. His best RPR and
his best speed figure were both recorded at the track. He was 2nd
in the 2006 renewal of the JCB Triumph Hurdle.
 
Mobaasher also has Festival form - finishing 4th in last year's
Pertemps Hurdle. And on the other occasions he's run at Cheltenham
he's finished 1st and 3rd. In terms of RPR ratings, what he has to
make up on the principle runners isn't insurmountable. At 33/1 I
think he represents a spot of value.

Three big handicaps to figure out...

My quick and dirty guide to making selections in the major
handicaps didn't quite do the trick yesterday in the Coral Cup.
Ninetieth Minute did carry less than 11-0 and was backed into 14/1
(our price threshold) in the minutes leading up to the off. But, at
only six years old, the winner did us on age. 

However, there are 3 big handicaps on the card today - the Pertemps
Hurdle, the Festival Plate and the Kim Muir. The quick and dirty
method plays the percentages - focusing on the group of horses aged
7, 8 or 9, carrying less than 11 stone and going off at 14/1 or
less.

This group has produced 19 of the winners from the last 37 renewals
of the major Festival handicaps. If you're short on time this
method will give you a list of probables in no time at all. It's a
great field splitter.

Where the Festival Plate is concerned you might find the following
statistical facts helpful when coming to a final decision. Thanks
to the HRF reader who fired these over to me late last night:

• 15 of the last 17 winners had run at the Festival previously.
  
• 15 of the last 17 winners finished in the first 4 last time
  out.
  
• French-bred horses have won 5 of the last 9 renewals. In the
  other four renewals they took 2nd place.
  
• There's only been a single winning favourite since 1981.
  
• Eight from the last 10 winners went off at 12-1 or bigger.

Until next time, be lucky.

13th March 2009

Good morning, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus...

• A day for the short-price layers...
  
• Presenting is well represented in places...
  
• Walsh sews up title as Geraghty battles on...
  
• Star de Mohaison and the main event...
  
• The other one running for me in a free bet...
  
• Key trends for the County and the Triumph...

It's Friday the 13th but let's not bother ourselves too much with
superstition...

Short price layers get their noses in front...

Thursday was a good day for the layers of the short priced Festival
horses. Voy Por Ustedes, Kasbah Bliss and Punchestowns were all
heavily fancied prior to the meeting and in receipt of sustained
money on the day - and all three got turned over. Poker De Sivola
turned into the mystery gamble of the day in the Kim Muir - being
backed into 7/2 from a morning tissue price of 7/1 - and that got
beaten too.

The overnight markets for today's races suggest there might be a
few more short prices to take on - with Kauto Star probably the one
most exchange layers will have lined up in their sights.

Presenting has another good day...

I flagged up Presenting in yesterday morning's letter as a Sire
enjoying a very good Festival. And it continued yesterday
afternoon. Each-way backers were rewarded with Crescent Island
landing 3rd in the Jewson Novices' Handicap Chase. The horse went
off at 25/1 after being widely available at a tasty 33/1 before the
race.

Just over half an hour later The Sliotar followed up with a
cracking run to finish in the places in the Pertemps Final. Backed
into 33/1 by the off, the David Pipe runner had been available at
40/1 in the minutes before the race.

Presenting has more offspring out today...

Defending Champion, Denman, flies the Presenting flag in the Gold
Cup. Cockney Trucker represents him in the County Hurdle. Toby
Belch and Weapon's Amnesty contest the Albert Bartlett Novices'
Hurdle. Presenting Copper and Hangover go in the Martin Pipe
Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle.

The Top Jockey title is all tied up...

Barring some kind of miracle (and I'm not holding my breath) Ruby
Walsh will be crowned Top Jockey at the end of the day's racing.
Big Buck's in the World Hurdle made it 5 winners for the meeting.
Paddy Power have already decided to pay out on those who braved the
short price available about Walsh at the top of the meeting.

Barry Geraghty is still plugging away manfully to land the each-way
portion of my 8/1 pre-Festival bet - which pays out 1/4 1-2-3. His
second on Punchestowns in yesterday's World Hurdle strengthens his
position.

Today he has a strong-looking book of four rides. Nicky Henderson's
hurdlers have been flying this year and Geraghty rides Zaynar in
the Triumph Hurdle and Dave's Dream in the County Hurdle. Both are
fancied. In the Gold Cup Geraghty is aboard the Queen's runner,
Barbers Shop. And in the Grand Annual Chase he rides My Petra. I'd
expect him to consolidate his position on the leaderboard today.
Another winner would probably guarantee a payout.

Today's main event...

The Gold Cup is the be all and end all for me today. Regular
readers will be aware of the case I've made for Star de Mohaison
and that I've been on to win or place at nice prices since mid-December.
It's been a fraught time. Had the ground not been on the soft side at
the start of the week Star would already have run in the William Hill
on Tuesday and my ante-post money might already be up the swanee.

As it is Star goes for the big prize today with Timmy Murphy
onboard. All the talk in the build up to the Festival has been
about Nicholls's other three runners - Kauto Star, Denman and
Neptune Collonges. There had been hardly a word from Ditcheat about
the horse that won the 2006 Grade 1 Royal and Sun Alliance Chase
and then, just three weeks later, landed the Grade 2 John Smiths
Mildmay Chase at Aintree.

Then on Tuesday word came from Nicholls in his Racing Post column
that Star de Mohaison was in the form of his life. That was good
news. Now all I need is for the ground to keep drying out. So
please God, no rain overnight or in the run up to the race. The
forecast is good - no rain and a breeze.

The other one running for me...

Back in February I highlighted Barbers Shop as a trading
opportunity. He could be backed at 25/1 (26.0) on the exchanges at
the time. I was pretty sure his price would contract. Owned by the
Queen he was certain to be the recipient of plenty of press
attention in the run up to the Festival - something that influences
the market. We've seen a fair bit of that in the last few weeks.

Imperial Commander (the King George strikes again) hasn't done us
any harm either. He beat Barbers Shop into 2nd place in the Paddy
Power Gold Cup Chase at Cheltenham in November. That form is
looking even stronger after Imperial's win in the G1 RyanAir Chase
yesterday. Add to that the Festival performances of Three Mirrors
and Maljimar, who also ran in the Paddy Power, and it's not
surprising that punters have latched on and backed Barbers Shop in
to 11/1, 10/1 and 9/1 in places.

I've protected my stake and laid Barbers Shop off on the exchanges
at 11/1 (12.0). The upshot is that Barbers Shop is running for me
at 14/1 in a no-lose situation. The word from the industry is that
Barbers Shop could go off at single figures. But I'm not willing to
take the risk. If the market comes in heavy for Kauto and/or Denman
then Barbers Shop might just be pushed back out. I'm happy to lay
at 11/1 while I can.

I want Star de Mohaison to win. If he can't win I want him to
place. If Barbers Shop wins then the result won't be quite so good
as if Star de Mohaison does - but I can console myself with that
14/1 payout and another winner for Barry Geraghty, my Top Jockey
pick. So there you have it - that's where Nick is at with the Gold
Cup.

Onto the County and the Triumph Hurdle...

The Festival Plate trends in yesterday's letter led quite a few of
you to the winner, Something Wells, and a 25/1 payout (33/1 for
those who backed him in the morning with firms offering Best Odds
Guaranteed). Good work.

My quick and dirty Festival handicap method led one or two of you
to an e/w payout on Buena Vista in the Pertemps.

Today's County Handicap Hurdle is another strong betting heat. Here
are some key trends that might help you in your deliberations:

• Horses starting no bigger than 16/1 have landed 32 of the
  last 34 renewals.
  
• 6 of the last 10 renewals were won by 5 year-olds.
  
• Of the last 46 winners 37 were aged either 5 of 6.
  
• Horses older than 7 have won just 4 times since 1959.
  
• 17 of the last 20 winners finished in the first 4 last time
  out.

And don't forget what I said on Wednesday about the Novice Hurdle
events. Winners have a long history of going into their races off
the back of a win and boasting a 50% or better strike rate.

This week both Go Native and Mikael D'haguenet confirmed these
strong trends with their wins in the Supreme and the Ballymore on
Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. You can use the trend to split
today's Triumph Hurdle field and narrow your focus onto likely
candidates.

That's all from me for this Festival. It's always over too quick.

Until next time, be lucky.

17th March 2009

Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus...

• Layers come out on top again at the Festival...
  
• My 'Lay Betting' manual - now available via Paypal...
  
• Presenting progeny was significantly underbet...

Layers come out on top again at the Festival...

Over the last few years the Cheltenham festival has proved to be a
fertile source of short-priced horses that get turned over.
Festival races are more competitive than the market would suggest
and laying more fancied runners on the exchanges has been a
profitable strategy to adopt in recent times:

• In 2006 22 horses went off at 4/1 or less. 16 were beaten.
  
• In 2007 26 horses went off at 4/1 or less. 21 were beaten
  
• In 2008 24 horses went off at 4/1 or less. 18 were beaten.

During this year's Festival 27 horses were sent off at odds of 4/1
or less. Only six rewarded market supporters with a win. The rest
were turned over. Among them were Binocular, Kasbah Bliss and Voy
Por Ustedes - each widely touted as a 'banker' in the run up to its
respective races.

Short-prices are no indication of winners at the pinnacle of
racing. As far as recent Cheltenham Festivals are concerned, short-
prices often indicate a horse that is overbet - where its price
overestimates its true chances of winning. Top-class fields consist
of multiple animals who can win - often at prices which
underestimate their true chances. Your betting strategy for future
Festivals should incorporate this fact.

Presenting... the top 2009 Festival Sire...

Something else I'll be bearing in mind for future Festivals is the
progeny of Presenting. He had 21 runners last week and plenty of
them ran into the money at decent prices:

• Drombeag - 3rd in the Glenfarclas Handicap Chase at 15/2
  
• Dunguib - 1st in the Champion Bumper at 9/2
  
• Some Present - 2nd in the Champion Bumper at 25/1
  
• Horner Woods - 2nd in the RSA Chase at 66/1
  
• Crescent Island - 3rd in the Jewsons' Novices Handicap Chase
  at 25/1
  
• The Sliotar - 4th in the Pertemps Final at 33/1
  
• Cockney Trucker - 3rd in the County Hurdle at 17/2
  
• Weapon's Amnesty - 1st in the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle
  at 8/1
  
• Denman - 2nd in the Gold Cup at 7/1

That's not a bad haul from 21 runners. On top of those in-the-frame
finishes Presenting Copper ran well to be 5th of 16 in the Martin
Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle at 16/1. China Rock was
4th of 14 in the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle having been sent off at
25/1. And Hennessey was 5th of 19 in the National Hunt Chase
Challenge Cup at 33/1.

It's hard to avoid the conclusion that Presenting's progeny was
consistently underbet - and that's something to file away for next
year. From 122 runners in total at Cheltenham since 2004,
Presenting's runners have hit the frame just about 33% of the time.
His progeny like the track.

Taking a closer look at Presenting its clear his chasers are
generally better than his hurdlers both at Cheltenham and in
general. The average Official Rating his chasers have achieved is
95 compared with 79 for his hurdlers.

However, at Aintree it appears to be the other way round. The
fourteen chase runners Presenting has had go round the Liverpool
track have drawn a blank. His six winners at the track have come
from the 19 runners over hurdles he's produced. Just goes to show
that nothing is straightforward in this game!

As Phillip Hobbs would testify...

The Somerset handler entered 17 horses at the Festival and not a
single one of them won a race. Then on Monday he sends out 5
runners and scores with 5 winners! Rhys Flint steered Yetholm,
Leading Contender and Giordano Bruno to victory at Taunton whilst
Richard Johnson, who also endured a luckless Festival, rode Chiaro
and Tzora to victory at Hereford.

That's all for this week. After last week's exertions it's as well
to take a breather before launching into angles for Aintree and the
start of the flat season - which I'll be back with next week.

Until next time, be lucky.

24th March 2009

Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus...

• Turkeys, shysters and charlatans...
  
• Over £19,000 in profit since July 2006...
  
• Why steering clear of the Festival impressed me...

A quiet time that could prove very useful...

The period between Cheltenham and Aintree represents a natural lull
in the racing calendar. The very best horses either ran at
Cheltenham or are being prepared for Aintree - or both.

Sure, the flat season gets underway this week and the Lincoln is
run at Doncaster on Saturday. But for me it's way too early to get
involved in the flat. I prefer to steer clear until the form
settles down. For me the flat season doesn't really start until
Guineas weekend.

Next week my attention will be fully focused on Aintree. This week
I've spent most of my time doing 'background' work in readiness for
the new flat season - updating the databases and spreadsheets I use
to analyse draw statistics and pace figures. I've also taken some
time to renew my familiarity with the individual characteristics of
the flat tracks - particularly over the 5f-8f distances I tend to
specialize in.

It's been a week of spadework and planting seeds which will
hopefully bear fruit in the summer months to come. But that doesn't
mean there's nothing to report. Far from it. This temporary calm in
the otherwise constant ebb and flow of the racing calendar offers
an opportunity to brief you on the results of a little
investigation I conducted recently...

Turkeys, shysters and charlatans...

From time to time HRF readers will write in and ask me what I know
or what I think about a specific tipping service. I'm always happy
to do a little digging on a reader's behalf and the fact is it
usually doesn't take very long or very much effort to figure out
that a service is untrustworthy, untested or unrealistic - or even
all three. Approximately 95% of services I'm asked to look into
fall down on one or more of the following criteria:

• Ridiculously over-hyped or plain fabricated returns
  
• 'Unique' methodologies that make no sense when applied to
  reality
  
• No evidence of tips being independently proofed
  
• No verifiable track record (services appearing from nowhere -
  most destined to disappear just as quickly)
  
• Selective record-keeping - where losing selections
  mysteriously fail to appear on the permanent record
  
• No customer service element to the service
  
• Exorbitant fees which bear no relation to the quality of
  results achieved
  
• Poor reputation amongst punters on the betting forums.

Spend an afternoon looking into some of the worst of these services
and you can find yourself badly in need of a hot shower and a bar
of soap. There are some real shysters out there preying on racing
punters. And plenty unwittingly fall into their clutches. The tales
of woe and loss I've heard from the used and abused would make your
toe-nails curl.

However, just occasionally, I'm asked to look at someone or
something that has real value to racing punters. It doesn't happen
very often but, when it does, I make a note. It happened recently
when I was asked by an HRF reader what I knew about a guy called
Paul Ruffy...

£19,000+ to the good since July 2006...

The honest truth was that I didn't know a single thing and I had to
do a fair bit of digging about. But I liked what I found. Fact is I
have a lot in common with Paul Ruffy insomuch as we both turned our
back on the world of employment to pursue our race-punting on a
full-time basis. And we both took that big decision after spending
a significant amount of time honing our respective methods and
angles.

Paul Ruffy is a like-mind doing something a little different. In
tandem with my betting I write HRF and share information that
hopefully other racing punters find informative and useful.
Alongside his betting activities Paul operates one of the most
successful tipping services in the business - and it has to be one
of racing's best-kept secrets.

I consider myself pretty well informed when it comes to the racing
and related areas. I make a big effort to acquaint myself with
what's out there and what's going on. But I've got to admit that
Paul Ruffy's Winning Racing Tips service has eluded my radar until
now.

I'm pretty disappointed with myself in truth. Why? Because I ought
to have been aware of the service before now - given that it's one
of the very rare services out there that doesn't fall into any of
the 'shyster' categories I outlined above.

How the service stacks up...

For example, Winning Racing Tips has a verifiable track record
going back to the inception of the service in July 2006. A
comprehensive spreadsheet can be downloaded direct from the Winning
Racing Tips website - this contains all selections and results
enabling you to review and rate the service without obligation.

And the service does the business - if you're prepared to play a
long term game. Since July 2006 subscribers have enjoyed a 48%
strike rate with the each-way selections and profited to the tune
of £19,000+ to £100 stakes - that's average bank growth of 16% per
month.

All selections are proofed to Racing Index, an independent service
that monitors tipping services and their performance in fine
detail. And, far from attracting criticism on the racing forums
(one of the reasons this service has probably evaded me) Winning
Racing Tips gets the nod of approval from independent reviewers
like the Secret Betting Club, Bet Investor and the Betting School
Private Members Club.

What so impressed me about the Festival performance...

That might sound like the Winning Racing Tips service provided a
string of winning bets during the Festival. But it didn't. In fact
the service barely got involved in the Festival at all. That's what
was so impressive.

The Festival provides some of the most competitive racing you're
likely to see. It's notoriously difficult to pick winners and the
fact that Winning Racing Tips stayed out of the action spoke
volumes about the clear-thinking behind the service. Whilst every
other tipster on the block was churning out selections for every
Festival race, Ruffy preferred to keep his powder dry and wait for
better opportunities in less competitive racing elsewhere.

In fact, the only time the service got involved was in the Champion
Chase when Ruffy recommended a classic each-way thieving bet. With
Master Minded so short in the book, other horses were trading at
juicy prices. Working on the factual basis that whatever happened
with Master Minded other horses would run into places, Ruffy
recommended an each-way bet at a nice price on Petit Robin - which
duly finished second. He spotted the value opportunity and
subscribers reaped the benefit.

I've worked with bookmakers and I can promise you one thing -
that's the kind of thinking they don't like to see. Good each-way
thieves (as they are known in the industry) get marked up, limited
or closed down completely. They're seen as shrewdies and bookies
don't like them because they eat into profit margins.  It's exactly
the type of thinking you want from a tipster - and it's an obvious
strength of the Winning Racing Tips service.

This is one service worth trialing for free...

As you know, I never recommend you do anything that I'm not
prepared to do or try for myself. In fact, I urge you to always do
your own thinking and come to your own conclusions. And that's the
case here.

Right now you can sign up and trial the Winning Racing Tips service
for 28 days - no fees, no strings, no obligations and no downside.
The tips are sent via email and/or text message. If you're looking
for a top-quality tipping service then check it out for yourself.

Take a look around the website. There's a lot of information on
there about the service and its performance - plus Paul Ruffy is
happy to deal with questions and queries (unlike a lot of
tipsters).

Until next time, be lucky.

31st March 2009

Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus...

• The Grand National is not a lottery...
  
• Stamina, freshness and reliable jumping are key...
  
• Strong trends offer some potent pointers...

The route to finding 'live' Grand National runners...

The Grand National will be run at Aintree on Saturday. Forty
runners over 4 miles and 4 furlongs with 30 fences to be negotiated
between the starting tape and the finishing post - some of them
monsters. Plenty of people will tell you the race is little more
than National Hunt's equivalent of the lottery - but I disagree.

The Aintree showpiece handicap is a horse race just like any other
and, despite the idiosyncratic nature of the event, there are
definite angles that can help us find competitive runners.

Firstly the race makes specific demands of horses. To win run a big
race in the National a horse has to measure up to very specific
criteria. Secondly, the Grand National is one of the best trends
races on the calendar. Though trends are not by any means the
definitive route to finding winners - they do offer a rational
means of splitting the field and discounting runners from
consideration on the basis of what historic runnings of the race
have taught us.

The final field is yet to be determined. But, even at this early
stage, we can go a long way toward separating the probables from
the unlikelies. Our first port of call should be the specific
demands the race makes of horses...

Stamina and plenty of it...

The National is run over 4 miles and 4 furlongs. It's a real test
and when it comes to betting in the race I won't put money on any
horse which has not previously demonstrated it has the stamina
required.

Ideally, I like my National horses to have proven form in chases
run over at least 3 miles and 2 furlongs. This is a personal
preference - but to me it makes sense. I like my National horses to
have won decent money at longer distances - a simple way of proving
they are competitive over gruelling trips.

There is room for a little flexibility. If a horse has shown to be
running on well at the end of a 3-mile contest, for example, then I
wouldn't dismiss it. But anything less and I'm sceptical. I don't
subscribe to the view that two-and-a-half milers make the best
National horses and recent history supports me. To put things into
perspective, Gay Trip (1970) was the last Grand National winner who
hadn't previously won over at least three miles.

Gritty, proven stayers like Hedgehunter, Bindaree, Silver Birch,
Amberleigh House and last year's winner, Comply or Die, are the
type to have on your side when push comes to shove at the business
end of the four and a half mile National marathon.
Battle hardened stayers can be relied upon to still be racing when
speedier animals used to racing over shorter distances have blown a
gasket.

Freshness on the big day...

In addition to proven stamina, I like my National horses to be
fresh. I discount horses which have already had too hard a season
of racing. I work on the principle that horses rested and laid out
for the National are those most likely to meet the stamina
requirements.

Again, it's simple but logical deduction. Horses which have been
racing throughout the NH season are likely to lack the physical
edge and racing zest necessary to find the reserves of stamina and
guts needed to be competitive in the big one. Four races or less
over the current season is my personal cut off point.

A track record of reliable jumping...

Finally, a National horse needs to be a reliable fencer. The
National fences represent racing's most stringent test of a horse's
ability to jump fluently at speed. Mistakes mean lost ground at
best or being on the deck and out of it at worst. The Grand
National fences reward virtue. A horse absolutely has to be able to
take the fences fluently at speed to stand a cat in hell's chance
of being in contention.

So, I don't like to see too many falls, blunders or comments about
inefficient jumping in a National horse's record. Particularly not
in the current season. If a horse struggles at its fences at more
ordinary tracks, it's going to struggle at Aintree. Jumping
problems are unlikely to correct themselves over the massive
Aintree obstacles.

Inexperience over fences also counts against horses. Each of the
last 10 Grand National winners had run at least ten times over
fences before going off at Aintree.

To find live National runners there's no substitute for going
through the form of every runner to identify in your own mind which
horses meet the above criteria. It's worth the effort. Some of the
qualifiers will be completely underestimated by the wider market
and will go off at very healthy prices!

Strong trends give us some potent further pointers...

Past runnings of the Grand National offer useful pointers to what
we're likely to see unfold on Saturday afternoon.

• Age trends tell us that Grand National winners have to be in
  their physical prime. Ten of the last thirteen winners were aged 9
  or 10. No horse aged 12+ has won the race in the last 85 years. And
  horses younger than 8, whilst they might be speedy, don't possess
  sufficient reserves of stamina. None has won in the last 68 years.

• Class trends tell us that bad horses simply don't win the
  National. Each of the last 21 Grand Nationals was won by a horse
  running off an official rating of between 136 and 157. Also look at
  races horses have won. Each of the last ten winners of the National
  had already won a race worth at least £17,000 before triumphing in
  the National.

• Weight trends tell us to focus our attention on the horses
  not over-burdened with lead. Last year the first 10 home in the
  National all carried less than 11st 5lbs. And 11st 5lbs is a good
  cut off point. Only 5 winners since the war have carried more than
  11st 5lbs to victory and the great Red Rum accounted for two of
  those. The winner is likely to be carrying less.

There are no hard and fast rules, of course. These are only
guidelines. It pays to use your discretion as and where you see
fit. You might want to give more weight to some areas than others.
I'll leave that up to you. But, if you can isolate horses in their
prime, not burdened by too much weight, of sufficient class and
experience with stamina, freshness and a good jumping record to
boot - well, you've identified horses with real chances!!

Until next time, be lucky.