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3rd March 2010
Good morning, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus...
- The countdown to the Festival starts here...
- Put your faith in the fluent jumpers...
- Stamina is key over every trip...
- Heads up... get ready to move fast...
The countdown starts here...
Cheltenham Festival 2010 is just a fortnight away - the best four
days of the racing year bar none. This is the championship fixture
of National Hunt racing attracting only the best UK and Irish horses
in training and a fair contingent of foreign hopefuls. Twenty-five
races and approximately £3 million in prize money up for grabs. If
that prospect doesn't put a smile on a racing punter's face then
nothing will.
Will we still be smiling at the end of it? The Festival is notorious
for being a graveyard for punters. Hardly surprising. Every runner
has been aimed at the festival and tuned to be pitch perfect on the
day. Every single runner is trying - guaranteed. Not a single runner
is being 'saved' for some future prize or being given an easy
'blow'. The result? Highly competitive races with multiple 'live'
contenders.
Picking winners isn't easy. However, bearing in mind some of the
unique challenges the Cheltenham course presents can help you avoid
latching onto losers and get you onto the scent of probables.
Put your faith in fluent jumpers...
There are no long flat sections at left-handed Cheltenham. The
course is undulating - meaning they go up hill and down dale. To
stand any chance of being competitive, horses need to be well
balanced and capable of jumping cleanly at speed whilst travelling
on the downhill sections. As befits championship racing - this isn't
easy.
For example, on the old course there's a downhill run to the final
turn and just one fence in the straight before the short uphill run
to the finishing line. It's this short uphill run to the finish
which forces jockeys to make their move on the preceding downhill
stretch. This can cause errors at the 3rd and 2nd last fences -
where so many festival dreams have taken a tumble in the past - with
horses travelling quicker than they might like as they approach
fences. The new course has only a single fence on the downhill
section but this can still prove tricky.
The bottom line is that any horse lacking fluency in its jumping is
likely to be found out - losing too much ground through errors or
exiting the race altogether. When it comes to punting you can do
yourself a real favour by taking the time to go through the runners
and weed out those who don't measure up to the standard required.
Scrutinising the 'comments in-running' earned by individual runners
in their recent races will quickly alert you to clunkers. Horses
with a recent history of blundering, hitting fences, losing ground
at fences or outright falling are not fit for purpose. Strike a line
through their names.
The Cheltenham Festival is no place for learners. The fences are
amongst the stiffest and most challenging in racing - and will need
to be addressed at red-hot speed. Any horse can be forgiven the odd
blunder but serial offenders must be discounted for betting purposes
at the Festival. Their flaws will be ruthlessly exposed.
Stamina is key over every trip...
The famous Cheltenham hill ruthlessly exposes any flaws in a horse's
stamina. Be sure that any horse you back has sufficient proven
stamina to get up the hill and see out the trip. Festival races are
invariably run at a searching pace throughout and this is sure to
find out horses who don't get the trip or that those only just get
it.
A lot of professionals will tell you that to win a Champion Hurdle
over 2 miles a horse really needs sufficient reserves of stamina be
able to stay 2m4f. Brave Inca and Hardy Eustace, both winners in the
last few years, bear this line of thinking out.
The Gold Cup offers additional illustrations that serious stayers
prosper at the Festival. In recent years a number of horses with
form at bigger distances than the 3m2f Gold Cup trip were staying on
at the end and ran into the places - Halcon Genelardais, Turpin
Green, Sir Rembrandt, Hedgehunter and Harbour Pilot, for example -
and at nice prices.
The point is that the fast pace Festival races are run at brings the
stamina of real stayers into play when the quicker horses are crying
enough.
It pays to apply this same logic to all festival races. When looking
through the recent form of runners, take time to identify those who
have been struggling to get home over the distance they'll be racing
over at the festival. The strong likelihood is that they will not be
challenging or running on up the Cheltenham hill at the end of a
race run at red-hot pace.
Next week I'll be outlining another very important consideration you
need to keep in mind when looking for winners at the Festival.
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Until next week, be lucky.
12th March 2010
Good afternoon, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus....
- Key trends in the Champion Hurdle....
Key trends in the Champion Hurdle....
The Grade 1 Champion Hurdle - run over the extended 2 miles on the
Old Course and taking in 8 obstacles - is the showpiece event on Day
1 of the Festival. That's Tuesday - for the uninitiated. Open to
horses aged 4 and over the race offers a total prize fund of
£370,000.
This year's Champion Hurdle looks a very often affair with multiple
horses seemingly capable of taking the prize if conditions suit and
they show their best on the day. However, there are some strong
trends in the Champion Hurdle that you can use to split the field
into the probables and the not-so-probables.
Different trends will point to the strong and weak points in
different horses. No single horse will measure up to every trend.
The trick is to take a view on which trends you find most convincing
and which horses most closely match the profile of previous race
winners.
These are the key trends it will pay to bear in mind for Tuesday's
Champion Hurdle:
Recent form is a key pointer - the horses that tend to win the
Champion Hurdle more often than not come into the race with a
winning performance under their belt last time out. 22 of the last
26 winners of this race conform to the trend. 8 out of the last 10
winners won last time out. That trend doesn't help the case for
Zaynar - he lost at Kelso last time out looking beaten for pace. 9
out of the last ten winners had won at least one race during the
season. 8 out of the last 10 winners had won a Grade 1 or a Grade 2
hurdle race at some point during the season leading up to the
Festival.
Youth trumps age in the Champion - up until recently it was pretty
easy to deal with the 5-year-old runners in this race. It was just a
simple case of striking a line through their names. But things seem
to be changing. Katchit won the race as a 5-year-old (the first 5-
year-old to do so since 1985) in 2008. And last year the 5-year-old
age group supplied the 2nd, 3rd and 4th place finishers in the race
- Celestial Halo, Binocular and Crack Away Jack. This recent trend
suggests that youth isn't the impediment it once was. However, age
is still an impediment. Just 3 winners have won the race at age 8 or
over since 1951.
Have experienced but don't be too exposed - 9 out of the last 10
winners of the Champion Hurdle had raced at least 9 times but no
more than 25.
The market knows the score - the market doesn't often get this race
wrong and out-and-out surprises are few and far between. 17 of the
last 19 winners were sent off in the 1st six in the betting. This
is another trend broken by last year's winner, Punjabi. But, taking
a longer term view, the percentage call is to confine your interest
to horses towards the head of the betting.
Course form is of real significance - 16 of the last 21 winners of
the Champion Hurdle had already notched at least one win at
Cheltenham before going for the title. Punjabi defied this trend
last year but taking a broader look suggests that horses without a
win at the course are at a disadvantage.
Previous Festival form counts - 14 of the last 18 winners of the
Champion Hurdle had previously finished either 1st or 2nd in a race
at a previous Cheltenham Festival. Looking at a list of just the
last ten winners of the Champion Hurdle there isn't a single one
with no form at a previous Festival. 8 of the 10 had already scored
a Festival win.
Irish eyes have been smiling - raiders from across the Irish seas
have won 7 of the last 11 Champion Hurdles and so the Irish horses
merit special consideration. The market evidently fancies the Irish
horses to make it 8 titles from the last 12 with Go Native, Solwhit
and Dunguib making up the current 1st three in the betting.
Fitness has been important in the past - all of the last 10 winners
of the Champion Hurdle came into the race 51 days or less since
having their last prep run for the race. This is a stat that doesn't
help the case for backers of Go Native, Khyber Kim or Starluck which
will have been off the track 80-, 94 and 80 days respectively come
the 16th March.
Key race trends - Go Native has two big stats to turn over if he is
to take the title. He won the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at last year's
Festival - but no reigning winner of that event has gone on to win
the following year's Champion Hurdle since 1971. He also won the
Christmas Hurdle at Kempton - a race which has produced just one
Champion Hurdle winner from the last 19 runners. The most
instructive trial races for the Champion Hurdle in recent years have
been the Irish Champion Hurdle run at Leopardstown in January and
the Festival Hurdle run at the same course in December. Solwhit won
both this season. Previous Champion Hurdle runners merit special
attention and a shortcut to finding this year's winner of the
Champion Hurdle might be to look at which horses ran in last year's
renewal. 6 of the last 10 winners of the race had appeared in the
field the year before.
Ratings have proven instructive - 9 out of the last 10 winners had
scored a Racing Post Rating of at least 157 before going for the
Champion. 8 out of 10 had already scored a Topspeed figure of 152.
- I have previewed all the major races at next week's festival
in my exclusive report "The Cheltenham Blueprint". Download
your FREE copy here...
http://www.horseracingfocus.co.uk/pdf/cheltenham2010.pdf
Until next time, be lucky.
19th March 2010
Good afternoon, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus....
- The dashing blade and the tank....
- What the trends have to tell us....
- My Gold Cup bets....
- What to look for in the Triumph and the Bartlett...
- How to play the finale... the County Hurdle...
- Plus - claim a free £100 bet on the Gold Cup this afternoon...
The dashing blade and the tank....
No sooner do the four days of the Festival arrive than the whole thing is
behind us again. The final day has dawned - and it's all about the third
in the trilogy of Gold Cup showdowns between Kauto Star and Denman. It's
the biggest and most eagerly anticipated Gold Cup renewal since the early
1960s when Arkle and Mill House traded punches.
This ongoing rivalry between Denman and Kauto Star is equally high-
profile. Stabled just yards from one another, they have has captured not
only the imagination of racing fans but also that of the wider public who
might not ordinarily be expected to know a racehorse from a rocking
horse.
Where these two giants of the jumps game are concerned, everybody seems
to have an opinion. There's no hiding place. There's no sitting on the
fence. It's a case of choose a camp, wrap the appropriate scarf around
your neck and get your money down. You're either a Kauto Star man or
you're a Denman fan.
I've got to admit that I'm more of the latter than the former - and my
position has little or nothing to do with a rational analysis of cold
hard facts. It's a position based on something felt rather than something
thought.
Kauto Star is great. There's no doubt - the formbook speaks for itself.
But I don't warm to him as I do to Denman. The French horse possesses
something of an aristocratic or cultured air and maybe that's what I
object to on an intuitive or 'gut instinct' level. Where Kauto Star is
all dashing blade and ooh la la, Denman is the big raw Irish lad from
down the road who can roll his sleeves up and pull a plough when called
upon.
Speaking purely as a fan of the sport, there's nothing I'd like to see
more this afternoon than Denman win. Speaking as a punter, I'm not sure
the underfoot conditions are going to suit. There's been a millimeter or
so of rain overnight but the ground is good as of 10am this morning and
that suits Kauto Star.
Is Denman an each-way punt at 5/1? He has quality. There are question
marks after coming to grief in his final prep run under Tony McCoy, but
if he's on song it is reasonable to expect him to be there or
thereabouts. It's your call.
What we can learn from the trends....
Past winners can teach us much about identifying future winners. Specific
races throw up similar types of winners time and again. Analysing the
trends can help us identify the right kind of horses. The Cheltenham Gold
Cup has some solid trends.
Strong age trends - 15 of the last 16 winners were aged between 7 and 9.
Just 1 winner from the last 16 has been was older than 9. That stat
stands against the 10-year-olds Kauto Star and Denman.
On the ratings - Of the last 9 winners 8 were rated 166 or higher - a
good stat for supporters of Kauto Star, Denman and Imperial Commander.
A Grade 1 win ticks a box - the last 10 winners of the Gold Cup had
already recorded wins in Grade 1 fields. All 10 had recorded a Graded
chase win earlier that season. A win over 3 miles is also a plus point
coming into the race. 8 of the last ten winners had won at that distance
going into the Gold Cup.
Key race trends - the most reliable clue in recent years has been the
King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day. The race has provided 7 of
the last 9 Gold Cup winners and was won in imperious fashion this season
by Kauto Star.
Festival form is a clue - 10 of the last 12 winners had won or placed at
a previous Festival.
Last time out form - a decent showing last time out is a good indicator.
20 of the last 22 winners finished in the first 4 in their last run
before going to the Festival. All of the last ten winners had raced more
at least twice and no more than times during the season running up to the
Festival. The last 8 Gold Cup winners went into the race off a 1st or 2nd
place finish last time out.
Young pretenders - of the last 18 winners 9 were relatively new-on-the-
scene second-season chasers. 9 out of the last 10 winners had raced over
fences more than 6 times. 9 out of the last 10 winners had raced less
than 13.
Another savvy market - as is the case with all these Championship races,
the Gold Cup market is reliably informed. Winners don't tend to get to
the race unsupported. The last 9 winners of the race were sent off in the
first 3 in the betting.
My Gold Cup bets....
Apply those rules to today's race and it's almost impossible to look
outside the first four in the market. Kauto Star is an unattractive
betting proposition for me at 8/11. I don't want to play Denman for place
money at 5/1. I'm more tempted by the prices on offer for there being a
change in the pecking order this afternoon. Imperial Commander is 9.6
(8.6/1) on the exchanges. Cooldine is 12.0 (11/1). I'll be backing both
to win.
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What to look for in the Novice hurdles...
When it comes to the Triumph Hurdle there are three key trends that will
help split the field. First, 14 of the last 16 winners won last time out
(1 winner, Scolardy, was subsequently and controversially demoted but
I've included him for these purposes). Second, 11 of the last 16 winners
started in the first 4 in the betting. Third, of the last 16 winners 14
had already won at least two hurdle races before taking the Triumph.
The Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle is a recent addition to the Festival
programme and we only have 5 previous runnings of the event to look at -
but those runnings have instruction to offer. All 5 winners could were
located in the first 5 in the betting market. All 5 winners had at least
3 times hurdle races under its belt. 3 of the last 4 winners had
Cheltenham wins prior to taking this. 4 of the last 5 winners had raced
at least twice at Cheltenham. 15 horses have won or placed in the race's
short history - 14 of those horses had either won or finished 2nd in
their final prep run.
The County Hurdle...
There will be plenty of punters hoping the County Hurdle is the race that
gets them out of the frying pan on the final day of the week. Their hopes
will be raised by the fact that 10 winners of this event have been sent
off at double figure prices. There's been a single 50/1 winner in that
time but 32 of the last 35 renewals were won by a horse starting at no
bigger than 16/1. 38 of last 47 winners were aged 5 of 6. The more recent
movement is towards the 5-year-olds. They've won 7 seven of the last
11 renewals despite providing only 20% of the runners in the race over
the period. 12 of the last 21 winners finished either 1st or 2nd on their
last start.
That's all for this Festival. I'll be back next week with the inquest,
what we have learnt during the week and how we can use it going forward
to Aintree and Punchestowns. I'm really excited about some of the
pointers we can take from this week's events.
Until then, be lucky.
25th March 2010
Good afternoon, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus....
- Another great Festival.... for the layers....
- Horses to take out of the Festival....
- My hoodoo horse....
- Bad trot at the Festival... spare a thought for my pal...
Another great Festival.... for the layers....
Well, Cheltenham is done and dusted for another year and once again
it proved to be a great Festival for the exchange layers prepared to
take on the short-price horses.
Of the 21 horses sent off by the market at odds of 4/1 or less only
3 managed to win their races - the other 18 got beaten - proving the
point that Festival races are more competitive than the press, the
media pundits and the massed ranks of racing punters would have you
believe.
A short price does not guarantee a winner at the Festival. Far from
it. And short prices in Festival markets, rather than attracting
your attention as a backer, really ought to be seen as a sign that
the market is overreacting to either something it has seen or
something it has been told.
There are no cast-iron, nailed on bankers at the Festival. That's
what the past 4 or 5 Festivals have taught us and it will pay
backers and layers alike to take the lesson onboard for next year.
This year Dunguib typified the type of 'wonder horse' that the media
and the punters like to latch onto and steam into over the winter.
In the run-up to the Festival he was considered a sure-thing for the
Supreme Novices' Hurdle - the 'banker' of the meeting for many - his
final 4/5 price tag illustrating the market's view that if the race
were run 10 times then Dunguib would finish in front 5.5 times or
so.
In the end, the one time the race got run he got beaten - not just
by race winner Menorah but by 2nd place finisher Get Me Out Of Here
(who looks like a chaser in the making).
Dunguib probably did well to finish so close to the front two given
the uncharacteristic slow pace in the early stage of the race - a
tactical feature of the event which negated his stamina. Dunguib is
a really useful animal - I think we'll see him at his best if and
when he takes to fences - but he is not the winged Pegasus the
market mistook him for.
Before the Festival I gave my Racing Angles members an exclusive
download 'Opposing the crowd at Cheltenham' a contrarian strategy
that produced 108 'winners' from 141 bets between 2004 and the end
of the 2009 Cheltenham Festival.
The main point of the download was...
'Over the last few years the Cheltenham festival has proved to be a
fertile source of short-priced horses that get turned over. Festival
races are more competitive than the market would suggest and laying
more fancied runners on the exchanges has been a profitable strategy
to adopt in recent times.'
And last week can hardly have gone any better for people that heeded
this advice...
"...First time in years I've won money and made a profit at
Cheltenham..."
'Hi Nick
Thanks for some great work at Cheltenham! Thanks to you I steered
away from Kautos Star and backed Imperial Commander. Also following
the trends prevented me doing my money on the short priced "good
things". First time in years I've won money and made a profit at Cheltenham.
Keep up the good work mate!'
Bernie, email
To read more member comments about by my Racing Angles service, and
to put it to the test FREE please click here.
Horses to take out of the Festival....
Win, lose or draw at the Festival... there's always something to
walk away with... even if that something is just a series of
pointers we hope to turn into profit a little further down the line.
This year's Festival did not disappoint. Whilst the winners take the
prize money, the plaudits and the headlines, it can be instructive
and beneficial to identify those horses which ran with promise and
potential albeit a little bit further back in the field.
Take Radium, for example. Nicky Henderson's 5-year-old was having
only his 4th career run in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys'
Handicap Hurdle beaten just over 3 lengths by Pause and Clause.
Radium might well have finished closer but for a stumbling after the
final flight. In addition to Radium there were 6 additional 5-year-
olds in the race - none of the others finished better than 9th
against the older horses and radium beat the next 5-year-old home,
Saticon, by over 13 lengths. Whether or not he runs again this term,
if he stays sound and progresses over the summer recess then he is
of interest to backers next season.
Tom George's 6-year-old, Othermix, has now had 5 chases and is yet
to break his winning duck but his 2nd place finish at 50/1 in last
week's 20 runner Jewson Novices' Handicap Chase marked him out as a
horse with plenty of potential. He was keen early on which didn't
help his cause but he was still challenging the winner Copper Bleu
at the 2nd last and managed to rally on the run in - though he was
held by that stage.
Albertas Run got them well strung out in the Ryanair Chase - finally
building on the promise of his 2008 RSA Chase win. His only win in
his 11 runs since then had come in the Amlin Chase at Ascot in
November but the drop back in trip to 2m5f did the trick and Tony
McCoy was able to use the horse's natural stamina to run the others
into the ground. It never ceases to amuse me how quickly history
gets rewritten and following his win last Thursday Albertas Run -
who had been widely considered short of championship class over the
last couple of years - was being spoken of and written about as
horse who would have been a King George winner had Kauto Star not
been around to beat him into 2nd place in the 2008 renewal at
Kempton. What a difference one day in the sunshine can make to a
horse's reputation.
The two I take from the Ryanair Chase moving forwards are the 2nd
and 3rd place finishers, Pocquelin and J'y Vole. They were two of
only three 7-year-olds in the race - the other being Petit Robin
which finished down the field - and did well to finish in front of
older horses with more experience. Barbers Shop, Deep Purple, Voy
Por Ustedes, Tranquil Sea and Planet of Sound all finished behind
the Nicholls and Mullins horses - beaten 5 to 30 lengths. With their
respective primes still in front of them Pocquelin and J'y Vole look
set to be central players in England and Ireland at 2m5f and up over
the next couple of seasons and I'd expect them to pay their way.
I'll bring you a little more post-Cheltenham analysis next week -
along with a few more pointers for moving forward. Right now I want
to pay tribute to a couple of animals we might not see again at the
festival.
A horse that owes me a few quid....
I couldn't resist backing Monkerhostin at 16/1 on the exchanges as
the runners lined up for the Glenfarclas Handicap Chase over 3m7f
last Tuesday. Monkerhostin is one of those horses that owes me
money. I've never drawn a single penny on him.
When I've backed him he's lost. When I've laid him he's gone and
won. And on two occasions when I've backed horses against him he's
gone and turned me over... most notably in the totesport Masters
Handicap Chase at Sandown earlier this season and in the 2008
renewal of the Gold Cup Chase run in April at the same course.
He'd never run over cross country fences before last week but he's a
flexible and durable animal who - despite being 13-years-old - has
retained the will to compete and win. Throughout his career he's
handled everything asked of him or thrown at him and my thinking
last Tuesday was that if he took to the new style fences then he
might well go closer than his 16/1 price tag suggested.
In the event, I didn't have to risk any money finding out. Within
seconds of the off his price in-running had contracted to 12/1 and I
was able to lay my bet off to guarantee myself a 4 point bet to
nothing.
In the end the plan didn't come off. And I'm pretty sure I won't be
getting many more chances to recoup the money this horse has cost me
over the years. But I don't begrudge him. He's been a great servant
to racing - winning 5 graded hurdle and chase events and the 2004
Coral Cup at the Festival. It will be great to see him leave the
sport intact and still in possession of plenty of zest. I just wish
he hadn't had the sign on me for all these years.
Spare a thought for my pal....
If you had a bad Festival and did a bit of your money then I
commiserate... but it could be worse. Losing money is one thing.
Getting it right, putting the bets on and then not getting your
payout is something else again.
But that's what's going on with punters who backed Binocular over
the winter for the Champion Hurdle. Punters like my pal, Tony the
Postie, who backed Binocular all over the winter and up until a week
or two before the Festival was holding 20 or so ante-post vouchers
for the Nicky Henderson trained 6-year-old.
When Nicky Henderson announced that Binocular wouldn't contest the
Champion and was being put away for the rest of the season on the
back of some disappointing efforts over the winter, my pal did what
plenty of others did. He took the announcement at face value and
destroyed the slips.
Imagine the force with which his jaw hit the floor when Binocular -
far from being scratched from the race - turned up to run. Then
imagine the stomach-churning, soul-destroying, blood-curdling horror
when the horse went on to take the crown looking like the best
Champion Hurdler since Istabraq last donned the JP McManus gold and
green hoops.
But no worries. The honest bookies would pay up? Right? Not
completely. Kudos to William Hill and Coral. I don't often have much
good to say about the big beasts in the betting jungle - but both
have paid out plenty of punters nationwide despite the vouchers not
being to hand.
But not so much kudos to Betfred. He won't pay out. Not on your
Nellie. He's using the situation to hang onto the winnings. No
ticket - no payout. Despite the circumstances involved, old chrome
dome Fred Done is not for moving - marking himself out as the
hungriest grabber on the High Street.
Here's the irony. Right now there's a poster in our local Betfred
shop window telling the story of how a goat ate somebody's winning
betting tickets - but good old Betfred paid out anyway.
The poster (as is usually the case with a Fred Done promotion) is
designed to put Fred Done in the best light possible. Fred Done is
the big guy punters can trust. Fred Done is the guy who treats you
better than the other bookies. Fred Done is the punters' champion.
I've got no problem with that - except when reality fails to measure
up to the hype and the whole thing is revealed as just so much
corporate bulls**t.
Until next time, be lucky.
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