Directory of Past issues - March 2011

2nd March - The tools for splitting a Festival field

11th March - Get the Festival off to a flier in the Supreme

15th March - How to cash-in on Day 1 of the Festival

16th March - Get your money back on losing bets at Cheltenham

17th March - Make sure your Pertemps pick matches the winning profile

18th March - The winning formula for Day 4 at the Festival

30th March - The Festival shorties produce the profits again....

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2nd March 2011

Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus....

• Getting to grips with the unfashionable....
• A profile of the Foxhunter winner....
• A tool for splitting the field....

Getting to grips with the unfashionable....

The Foxhunter Chase is not everybody's cup of tea. It's the amateur
equivalent of the Gold Cup - its run over the same course and trip -
and the race represents the highlight of the season for the hunter
chasing crowd.

For the rest of us it's a bit of a puzzle - because we don't know
much about many of the horses down to run in the race. The field is
an eclectic mix of experienced chasers on the downgrade as age
catches up with them and bonafide new-kids-on-the-block using the
race as stepping stone between point-to-point racing and jump racing
proper.

A horse can only run in the Foxhunter Chase if it has qualified by
finishing either 1st or 2nd on two occasions in a Hunter Chase, by
winning two open point-to-point races, or by having won one open
point-to-point race and either finished 1st or 2nd  in a hunter
chase.

Despite its amateur status the race attracts the attention of the
big yards and they support it in force. Kingscliff and Sleeping
Night - both quality chasers - have won the race in recent years.

This race has a reasonable history of producing surprise winners -
at nice prices. Five of the last 10 winners were returned at prices
between 16/1 and 33/1 - so nobody would chastise you for looking in
the nether reaches of the market in search of a 'live' dark horse.

A profile of the Foxhunter winner....

If you were looking for a bet in this race then you're looking to
shortlist horses that most closely fit a specific profile:

For a start there should be no issues with stamina. The extended
3m2f trip - encompassing the stiff uphill finish - takes some
getting. Particularly so if the pace is on. You don't want to be
siding with a horse where any doubts exist about its stamina. This
is a race where speed horses still unproven at the trip tend to find
very little sympathy. All of the last 11 winners of the Foxhunter
had won a race over at least 3 miles before showing up at
Cheltenham. Stick with that bunch.

Your next stop should be the Racing Post Ratings achieved by the
horses with the requisite proven stamina. You're not going to see
the type of ratings associated with the runners in the Gold Cup
proper - but ratings of the previous Foxhunter winners provide a
reliable guide nevertheless. Ten of the last 11 Foxhunter winners
had recorded a Racing Post Rating of at least 128 prior to winning.
A horse with a rating which falls below that standard is up against
it. It doesn't mean it can't win. But it does mean it must improve
significantly on whatever form it's produced before in order to
figure. 

Horses running off the back of a long racecourse lay off have been
at a disadvantage in recent times. If you're considering backing a
horse that's been off the track for longer than 5 weeks then make
sure it has a track record of being able to go well without a recent
run. A recent run is a definite plus point. Ten of the last 11
winners had raced within the last 33 days.

This is a race where I'm definitely discriminating against the
elderly. Plenty of the horses going to post in this race will be in
the twilight years of a lengthy career on the National Hunt circuit.
And you can dismiss the oldest with a sense of confidence. Over the
last 11 years 50 horses aged 12+ have gone to post in the Foxhunter
- registering just one win and 2 placed efforts between them. I'd be
going for one of the young bloods.

Horses aged 8 or younger have produced 8 win or placed efforts from
63 triers. You might want to use 10-years-old as a cut off point: 18
of the last 20 winners were aged 10 or younger. Five of the last 6
winners were either 9- or 10-years old.

It's by no means essential to have run at a previous Festival. But 4
of the last 11 winners - including last year's winner, Baby Run -
had run at the Festival in a previous year. Notable form is
particularly interesting - all 4 of the previous Festival runners
performed with credit and recorded a top 4 finish.

The form profile is a mixed bag so tread carefully: Long term the
trends say that good form is a key component in the profile of a
Foxhunter winner. Twenty of the last 25 winners won on their final
racecourse appearance before running in this. However, my analysis
of Foxhunter Chases run over the last decade or so suggests that
results might be on the turn. Only 7 of the last 11 won last time
out.

A tool for splitting the field....

That should give you some assistance if you're looking to split the
Foxhunter field into 'live' contenders and the horses most likely to
be making up the numbers.

That's the beauty of producing a profile - it offers a quick and
effective way of identifying the runners in a big-field race that
are most likely to be still contesting the race at the finish.

It means you don't have to wade through the form of every runner - a
gargantuan task. Instead you can shortlist the probables and run a
through formbook rule over them to establish the very best bets in
the field.

It's probably too late to do all the work involved in that yourself
in time for this year's Festival... there's a hell of a lot of work
involved... but if you like the profile approach and you want to
find out exactly how to split the field in 20 of this year's
Festival races then you should get the lowdown on my Winning Profiles....

http://www.shopatoxonpress.com/CHMOP/

I'm providing all the information you need to split the Festival
fields yourself... and - if you haven't the time to do that work
yourself - I'll be going through the runners myself and I'll tell
you which horses make the shortlist - and most betting appeal - in
bonus emails delivered direct to your inbox next week - so that
you've got the profile picks to hand on the eve of the Festival....

Each day of the Festival I'll be sending an email to cover any last
minute considerations that might affect what the profile is
saying... You can check out all the details by clicking on the link
below. More from me next week...

http://www.shopatoxonpress.com/CHMOP/

Until then, be lucky.

11th March 2011

Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus....

• Get the Festival off to a flier in the Supreme....
  
• Here's how to go about it....
  
• The beauty of doing things this way....

Get the Festival off to a flier in the Supreme....

What can you tell me about Gibb River? Or Marsh Warbler? Or Magen's
Star?

Probably not too much, right? These are young horses - fresh off the
flat last summer - and with only a handful of races over the jumps
behind them. 

The first-named is a 5-year-old hurdler trained by Nicky Henderson -
going into the Festival on the back of 3 straight hurdle wins. Marsh
Warbler is a 4-year-old juvenile hurdler out of Brian Ellison's yard
and is also unbeaten in 3 starts over hurdles. The last-named - 6-
years-old and trained by Tommy Stack - has won his last two over the
smaller flights. All 3 hold an entry in the Festival opener on
Tuesday - the Supreme Novices' Hurdle.

I don't offer these horses as tips. I'm simply using them to
illustrate an example - not too much is known about the runners in
the Supreme. Not much can be known. These horses - being novice
hurdlers - are at the beginning of their National Hunt careers - and
their racecourse experience is strictly limited.

And, when you consider there will be upwards of 20 horses of this
type contesting Tuesday's opener, you get some idea about how
difficult a task it can be to pick the winner.

Fortunately, this is where a race profile comes into its own. By
measuring this year's runners against the commonalities shared by
previous winners of this race we can identify and isolate those
horses most likely to be troubling the scorers this year and discard
those most likely not to be. In short a profile provides a rational
basis on which to split a big field like the Supreme.

Here's how to go about it...

• Strike a line through contenders with poor form: The winner
  will be in good heart. The stats suggest you can safely ignore
  runners who have put in poor performances in the run up to the
  Festival. Nine of the last 11 winners of the Supreme had won last
  time out.

• Good form will be a consistent feature of the horse's record:
  It will not be some patchy achievement or isolated incident. Winners
  of the Supreme tend to have produced good form throughout their
  hurdle careers. All of the last 11 winners had won at least 50% of
  their hurdle races before arriving at Cheltenham.

• The winner will be highly rated coming into the Supreme: On
  Racing Post Ratings 10 of the last 11 winners were rated 132 or
  more. On official ratings - allotted by the official handicapper - I
  would stick with the same figure (132). 5 of the last 6 winners -
  and 8 of the 14 horses who got competitive during that time by
  finishing within 4 lengths of the winner - were rated 132 by the
  official handicapper going into the race.

• The winner will not be coming off a long layoff: 10 of the
  last 11 winners had run within the last 45 days but the shorter term
  trends suggest we can go a bit further here. 4 of the last 6 winners
  and 11 of the 14 competitive horses had run within the previous 28
  days - suggesting that more recently raced animals have a slight
  edge.

• The winner is most likely NOT to have Festival form: Only one
  winner in the last 11 had previously contested a race at the
  Cheltenham Festival.

• The winner will not be exposed over hurdles: All of the horses
  to win the race in the last 6 years - and all of the 14 horses that
  ran competitively in defeat had contested between 2 and 6 hurdle
  races.

• The winner will not be overly experienced in any code. In the
  last 6 years 5 of the race winners and 13 of the 14 competitive
  horses had run in no more than 12 races - of any type.

Going through each of those steps and then discarding horses that
patently don't fit the profile will reduce the field to more
manageable levels. There's room for wiggle. Whilst horses worth
backing will meet the most important and essential criterion you can
issue a pass if a horse doesn't meet a lesser point of the profile.

For example, I want horses in good form with a high winning strike
rate. I'm not prepared to compromise on that. But if a horse had
raced in the last 35 days I'd maybe not discard him purely on the
basis of being outside the 28-day window I mentioned. In short
there's room for subjectivity and some weighting. 

The beauty of doing it this way....

No doubt you will see how much assistance this process can give you
if you're looking to split the Supreme field into 'live' contenders
and the horses most likely to be making up the numbers.

That's the beauty of producing a profile - it offers a quick and
effective way of identifying the runners in a big-field race that
are most likely to be still contesting the race at the finish.

It means you don't have to wade through the form of every runner - a
gargantuan task. And it means you don't have to dust off the old
crystal ball to try and solve races involving multiple young and
unexposed runners you don't know squat about.

Instead you can shortlist the probables and run a through formbook
rule over them to establish the very best bets in the field.

It's way too late to do all the work involved in that yourself in
time for all the races at this year's Festival... there's a hell of
a lot of work involved... but if you like the profile approach and
you want to find out exactly how to split the field in 24 of this
year's Festival races then you should get the lowdown on my Winning
Profiles service...

http://www.shopatoxonpress.com/CHMOP/

I've put a report together containing all key points to use when
splitting the field in those 24 races... and on Monday I'll be
providing the service users with a definitive eve-of-race bulletin -
outlining the best bets in every race based on the winning
profile...

I'll reduce each race to a shortlist of three picks - based on price
and designed to reflect as many of your individual betting
strategies as possible.

Where applicable and appropriate I'll be picking the short-priced
horse that most closely fits the profile, a mid-price horse and a
big-priced option for the each-way players. I'll also be picking out
short-priced lay opportunities where individual horses patently
don't fit the race winning profile.

Then on the day of the races themselves I'll be in touch every
morning - to address any last minute considerations such as the
state of the going, news from the yards, market signals and any
other stop press intelligence we should be taking into account with
regard to the selections.

I'm hard at work on the races as we speak. I'll put the finishing
touches to my analysis over the weekend - as the fields cut up - and
by Monday morning (the eve of the Festival) I'll be ready to rock
and roll with my final selections. That's the plan! If you want to
get onboard it would be great to have you... you can find out much
more and sign up here...

http://www.shopatoxonpress.com/CHMOP/

Until next time, be lucky.

15th March 2011

Good morning, friends,

In your bonus Horse Racing Focus email today....

• Chalking up points on Day 1....
  
• Targeting the Spinal Research Handicap Chase....

Chalking up points on Day 1....

We wait all year and before you know it the Festival is upon us....
It's day one, there's much to look forward to and much to comment
on.... So without further ado....

Day one is all about speed with the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, the
Champion Hurdle and the Arkle, the championship event for novice 2-
mile chasers, all done and dusted by the time the hands of the clock
hit half past three.

The opener, the Supreme is a good race if you like to back bigger-
price runners - perhaps each-way in the hope of getting some early
points chalked onto the board. The average SP of the last 6 winners
is just over 16/1 - illustrating that the market can get this wrong
and its opinion shouldn't put you off backing a decent-priced horse
if you think you've found an undervalued 'live' contender. Over the
years it has certainly paid punters to look away from the race
favourite - the jolly has a poor record in this heat. Favourites did
win 3 on the trot between 2002 and 2005 but only 6 race favourites
in total have managed to win in the last 31 runnings.

In the Arkle it traditionally pays to adopt a cautious attitude.
There have only been two winning favourites since 1992 - but the
market is never too far away from the truth pre-race. All of the
last 11 winners were sent off at odds of 11/1 or less. The average
SP of winners since 2005 is just over 6/1. A punt at a big price is
probably a wasted stake.

The Spinal Research Handicap Chase (formerly the William Hill
Trophy) offers another early opportunity to bet at decent prices -
but going mad is not advisable. Only two favourites have won this
race since 1977. But, whilst the market seems to get it consistently
wrong with the horse it sends off at the top of the betting, it
isn't usually too far wrong in its assessment of the winner. Of the
last 11 winners 8 were sent off at prices between 5/1 and 10/1 - but
don't let that stop you backing a bigger priced horse each-way in
this big-field event. The average winning SP in this race (over the
last 6 Festivals) weighs in at just over 18/1. If you're backing
each-way be sure to take advantage of the enhanced place terms of
1/4 1-2-3-4-5 plenty of the bookies will apply to the race.

The Champion Hurdle is another Festival race where market opinion is
worth taking note of. Eight out of the last 11 winners of the
Champion Hurdle were sent off at odds no bigger than 10/1. In the
last 20 years 18 of the winning Champion Hurdlers were to be found
in the first six in the betting. Enough said. The winners of the
race between 2005 and 2010 recorded an average SP of just over 10/1
- slightly skewed by Punjabi's 22/1 out-of-the-blue success in 2009.

Targeting the Spinal Research Handicap Chase....

The Spinal Research Handicap Chase (2.40) is the first Festival
handicap and attracts a heated round of betting. There's a big field
to consider and it's a bit late in the day to start wading through
the form of the runners.... But if you're looking for a bet
nevertheless it wouldn't hurt to use the race winning profile to
sort the most likely from the least attractive....

• Stick to the right age band: The last 11 winners of this race
  were aged 7- to 10-years old. No horse aged 11+ has been placed
  since 1997 - from 34 runners. In the last 6 runnings no horse of
  that age has even got competitive.

• Don't back a horse under a burden: This race is run over 3m,
  the pace is always fast owing to the big field and stamina is
  absolutely paramount if a horse stands a chance of racing to the
  line. The last thing a horse needs is a big weight strapped to its
  back and horses slated to carry lighter weights have had the edge in
  recent times. The last 11 winners carried less than 11 stone.

• Stamina is a key factor: You want to identify runners which
  have already demonstrated they can handle the rigorous test they are
  going to be confronted with here. Ten of the last 11 winners had
  already won over 3m before triumphing in this race.

• Hit the ratings right: Past renewals tells us that there's not
  a lot of point in backing horses too far up the official ratings. No
  winner has been rated 150 or more by the official handicapper in the
  last 28 years. All of the last 11 winners were rated between 127 and
  143 and that's the band to focus on.

• Look for the form horses: Good form coming into the Festival
  is a positive. In this race 9 out of the last 11 winners finished in
  the 1st three last time out. Six of the last 8 winners had won on
  their previous outing. 

• Leave the old stagers alone: Where this race is concerned too
  much experience is definitely too much. Nine out of the last 11
  winners had run no more than 11 times over fences. Only 3 horses
  which had run in more than 15 chases actually got competitive in the
  race itself.

• Look for the rested horse: In the last 6 renewals of this race
  no horse which had been on the track in the two weeks prior to the
  race actually managed to get competitive.

That should give you a shortlist of solid contenders to make a final
selection from.

If you like the look of one at a bigger price and you fancy backing
it each-way then be sure to take the bet at Best Odds Guaranteed
with the bookie. That way if the price drifts before the off you'll
get paid out at the bigger SP.

And make sure you get the best of the Enhanced Place Terms on offer.
In handicap races with 16 runners or more plenty of the bookmakers
offer to pay 1/4 the odds on the first 5 finishers rather than the
first 4. If the 33/1 shot you've backed each-way finished 5th you'll
be glad you took the time to shop around.

Until tomorrow, be lucky.

16th March 2011

Good morning, friends,

In your bonus Horse Racing Focus email today....

• Chalking up the points on Day 2....
• Targeting the Coral Cup....

Chalking up the points on Day 2....

Good morning. I hope you got the Festival off to a decent start
yesterday. Sometimes I think the action happens just a little too
fast.

We spend so many months thinking about these races... looking them
over... forming opinions... testing theories... making judgements...
moving towards final selections... and then the races happen all at
once in a kind of heap.... One following hard on the heels of
another... and the whole thing over in what feels like just a few
short hours... The message is to enjoy it whilst it lasts - every
last moment.

We're not only trying to pick winners this week - there's an
opportunity to find a few winners for the weeks ahead and on into
next season. The best National Hunt horses in the country are on
view this week and if you watch all the races closely - maybe a few
times apiece - there are plenty of clues to future winners on offer.

Today we kick off with the National Hunt Chase which offers an early
opportunity for the big-priced aficionados. There's only been one
winning favourite since 1992 and in recent years we've seen winners
returned at 40s, 33s (x2), 14s and 11s. The winners over the last
half dozen renewals recorded an average SP of more than 23/1. Get
stuck in!

In the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle you can expect
the market to be somewhere close to getting it right. You're looking
here for a solid price rather than something spectacular - 23 of the
last 25 winners were sent off occupying a berth in the top 6 of the
betting market. The last 6 runnings have produced an average winning
SP of just under 9/1.

The RSA Chase doesn't fall to any old horse and there's very little
chance of a dark horse flying under the market's radar for the
entirety of the season - as an average winning SP of 6/1 over the
last half dozen years illustrates. Three of the last 4 renewals were
scooped by the race favourite. That's not a recommendation that you
blindly bet the favourite - just an illustration that the market has
the race sussed 8 years out of 10.

Unfancied horses don't do the job in the Champion Chase and 26 of
the last 29 winners started at single-figure odds. Ten of the last
12 winners were sent to post at no bigger than 5/1. You have been
warned. The average winning SP over the last 6 years is just under
6/1.

Where the Coral Cup is concerned the market gets it wrong with far
more frequency than it gets it right and the race has seen some
thumping big gambles foiled by big-priced outsiders. Since 1994 only
one favourite has obliged and recent winners have returned at 33s,
14s (x2), 11s and 10s. Winning SPs over the last half-dozen years
average out at almost 15/1 - so there's plenty of encouragement to
root out a big-priced contender. If you're backing each-way be sure
to take advantage of the enhanced place terms of 1/4 1-2-3-4-5
plenty of the bookies will apply to the race.

The Fred Winter has provided plenty of shock value in its short
history. The first two runnings produced big shocks in the form of
40/1 and 20/1 winners. There have been two additional double-figure
priced winners - and plenty of double-figure price place finishers.
There have been two winning jollies to sweeten the pot for favourite
backers but overall the last 6 years' winners have produced an
average winning SP of 16/1.

Finally... the Champion Bumper. On the face of it the market doesn't
have too bad a record - 14 of the last 18 winners were sent off in
the 1st six in the betting market. But, when you combine that stat
with the knowledge that 8 of the last 9 horses heavily fancied in
this race (sent off at 3/1 or less) were beaten, you can see it's a
difficult race to call right. Two big priced winners in the last 6
years contribute to an average winning SP of 16/1.

Targeting the Coral Cup....

The Coral Cup (4.00) is a big-field handicap hurdle event that takes
some solving. Use my race winning profile to split the field into
'live' contenders and horses showing up to make up the numbers....

• Good form is a key: Nine of the last 11 winners had finished
  in the top 6 in their final race before Cheltenham. Six of that
  group won their races. An upward curve of form is a definite
  requirement. 

• Our man is not an out-and-out 2 miler: The race is over 2m5f
  and the pace will be stiff. A winner of this needs stamina. It has
  to stay. All of the last 11 winners of this race had already won a
  hurdle race at a trip between 2m2f and 2m6f.

• Observe the class barrier: What kind of form have previous
  winners boasted prior to the Festival? Well, 10 of the last 11
  winners had won a hurdle race at Class 3 or higher.

• Ditch the journeymen: Nine of the last 11 winners had run no
  more than 16 times over hurdles prior to the Festival. A look at the
  shorter term trends: 5 of the last 6 winners had contested no more
  than 13 hurdle races. Nine of the 11 competitive horses beaten over
  the same period had also raced 13 times or less. Less experience is
  the percentage call.

• Prioritise the optimum age-band: Five of the last 6 winners
  were 7-years-old or younger. Eight out of the 11 horses that ran
  competitively in defeat were also 7-years-old or younger. The
  percentage call is youth over age.

• Rest has played a part in preparation: Veer towards the
  fresher horses coming into the race - all of the last 6 winners had
  been off-track prior to Cheltenham for at least a month.

• Watch the weight: Eight of the last 11 winners were carrying
  no more than 11-0. The Cheltenham hill is formidable at the end of a
  fast-run race. Every pound of extra weight will take its toll. And,
  in a race like this, I'm also acutely aware that there will be one
  or two plot horses on sweet little ratings that will be flying up
  the hill with so much less lead in the saddle. 

That should give you a shortlist of solid contenders to make a final
selection from.

If you like the look of one at a bigger price and you fancy backing
it each-way then be sure to take the bet at Best Odds Guaranteed
with the bookie. That way if the price drift before the off you'll
get paid out at the bigger SP.

And make sure you get the best of the Enhanced Place Terms on offer.
In handicap races with 16 runners or more plenty of the bookmakers
offer to pay 1/4 the odds on the first 5 finishers rather than the
first 4. Bet365, Betfred, Blue Square, 888 Sport and Coral are all
offering 1/4 odds on the first 5 home in today's Coral Cup. If the
33/1 shot you've backed each-way finished 5th you'll be glad you
took the time to shop around.

Get the latest odds on the Coral Cup here >>

Until tomorrow, be lucky.

17th March 2011

Good morning, friends,

In your bonus Horse Racing Focus email today....

• Chalking up the points on Day 3....
• Targeting the Pertemps....

Chalking up the points on Day 3....

On we go into Day 3... where the World Hurdle is the headline act.
Big Buck's goes for a third consecutive success. Until a few weeks
ago the race had the look of a Coronation about it and Big Buck's
probably represented a Festival banker for wide swathes of the
market. But the emergence of young pretenders both here and in
Ireland has added some unforeseen but welcome spice to the pot.

• If you think Big Buck's is going to win today's big race, open
  a new account at Betfair and if he fails to make it three in a row
  you'll get your 'Money Back'. For more information about this offer
  including full terms and conditions, click here >>

The Ryanair Chase represents something of a Championship for the
top-quality middle-distance chasers and none of the renewals run at
the Festival to date has disappointed. This year's field looks like
producing another high-quality and competitive affair. A conservative
approach pays more dividends than an extravagant tilt at the big
price runners. The market sent off 5 of the 6 winners of the race at
prices of 6/1 or less - and the average winning SP is just a shade
over 6/1.

Expect a big gamble in the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle - especially in
respect of Irish runners. But don't get yourself too sucked in by
where the money is going. It often ends up in the wrong place. The
last 7 winners of the Pertemps Final were sent off at prices ranging
from 10/1 to 50/1 (there were two 50-/1 winners!) and the average
winning SP over the last 6 years weighs in at over 20/1.That tells
you that picking a Pertemps winner is no cakewalk. But on the upside
there's plenty to play for (especially in the each-way markets) if
you can identify an undervalued horse.

There's only been one winning favourite since 1981 in the Byrne
Group Handicap Plate. The race has a history of generating shock
winners at tasty prices. Since 2000 the winners of this race have
been sent off by the market at prices ranging from 12/1 to 66/1 -
including winners at 18s, two winners at 25s, a winner at 33s and a
winning 66/1 shot in 2008 - producing a whopping average winning SP
of 28/1 over the last 6 years.

The Kim Muir Challenge Cup is an interesting race for the big-price
each-way player. Six of the last 8 winners won at double-figure
prices. The average winning SP over the last 6 years equates to
15/1.

Targeting the Pertemps....

The Pertemps Handicap Hurdle is one of those puzzles hardened
punters pride themselves on solving from time to time... and there
have been juicy priced winners and placed horses in recent times. If
you fancy playing then be warned - it's a big field. You can
help yourself get closer to the truth quicker by splitting the field
using my race winning profile. Here's how:

• Weight is an informative pointer: This is a staying hurdle run
  over 3m. The big-field and the occasion will ensure a red hot early
  pace and by the time the runners reach the stiff uphill run to the
  post legs will be tried and weight in the saddlebag will be
  beginning to tell. Ten of the last 11 winners carried 11-2 or less
  to victory.

• The trips tell a tale: If you're going to back a horse running
  over 3m at Cheltenham - the most physically demanding course of them
  all - then you don't want there to be any doubts about your
  selection getting the trip. Thirteen of the last 18 winners of
  the Pertemps had advertised their staying credentials prior to
  running at the Festival - by winning a race over a 3m trip.

• How old are the winners of this race? The first thing to say
  is that there has only been a single winning 5-year-old runner in
  the last 36 years - and that age-group is best left alone. All of
  the last 11 winners were aged between 6- and 9-years. Results
  in the last 6 renewals suggest that the percentage call is to strip
  out the 6-year-olds. Five of the last 6 winners (and 9 of the 16
  horses that ran competitively in defeat during that period) were
  aged between 7- and 9-years. It's your call!

• Observe the Class barrier: Horses racing in this will all be
  at different stages of their career - having taken different routes
  to get here -and no doubt they will all be heading in different
  directions afterwards. But there is a quick way of establishing
  what all the different form lines mean and placing a value on the
  worth of the form in the context of this Pertemps race.  Nine out of
  the last 11 winners had won at Class 3 or higher before heading to
  Cheltenham. Best form below that value has not been good enough in
  recent times.

• Veer towards the newcomers: Eight out of the last 11 winners
  had run between 6 and 15 times over hurdles before winning this. The
  last few renewals suggest the trend is shifting towards winners with
  less runs than 15. Four winners out of the last 6 winners had run in
  9 hurdle races or fewer. I would veer towards the more lightly-
  raced types - making 6 runs my minimum requirement.

That should give you a shortlist of solid contenders to make a final
selection from.

If you like the look of one at a bigger price and you fancy backing
it each-way then be sure to take the bet at Best Odds Guaranteed
with the bookie. That way if the price drift before the off you'll
get paid out at the bigger SP.

And make sure you get the best of the Enhanced Place Terms on offer.
In handicap races with 16 runners or more plenty of the bookmakers
offer to pay 1/4 the odds on the first 5 finishers rather than the
first 4. If the 33/1 shot you've backed each-way finished 5th you'll
be glad you took the time to shop around. Until tomorrow, be lucky.

Until next time, be lucky.

18th March 2011

Good morning, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus....

• Chalking up the points on Day 4....
  
• Targeting the Grand Annual....

Chalking up the points on Day 4....

We've reached Day 4 and if you're still standing your ground on the
betting front then there's still plenty to play for. If you're
winning then you're looking for a nice bonus prize or two. If you're
losing... don't lose heart. One winning bet on a horse at the right
price can overturn quite a few losers. Two payouts and the bottom
line for the week can look a lot different....

Today's headline event is the Gold Cup where Imperial Commander
defends his crown. Past champions - and older than is ideal - Kauto
Star and Denman seek to prove that age is no bar to winning another
Gold Cup. Whilst young pretenders, Long Run, Diamond Harry and
Pandorama will be looking to initiate a changing of the guard at the
top of the chasing tree.

But before we get an answer to all our questions in that race
there's much for the punter to play for...

The recent introduction to the Festival of the Fred Winter Novices'
Hurdle has succeeded in making the Triumph Hurdle a little easier
for the market to solve - the Fred Winter provides an alternative
running option for 4-year-old novice hurdlers and since it was
introduced to the programme in 2005 all 6 winners of the Triumph
have been returned at single-figure prices by the market. The
Triumph's reputation of being a race for big shocks is being eroded.
Recent winners have produced an average winning SP of just over
11/2.

Massive price winners of the County Hurdle are something of a
collector's item. In the last 36 years 32 County Hurdles were won by
a horse sent off by the market at no bigger than 16/1. Ten of the
last 11 winners started at no bigger than 20/1. But there's good
news that should provide sufficient encouragement for each-way
punters who like to back live outsiders at decent prices - 18 placed
horses over the last 11 years started at 25/1 or bigger. One 50/1
winner in 2008 contributes to an average 6-year winning SP of 20/1.

When the Cheltenham Gold Cup comes round you should be aware that
the race conforms to the typical Championship race profile. All of
the last 10 winners started in the first 3 in the betting. The
average winning SP over the last 6 renewals of the race tips the
scales at just under 4/1. But do not despair if you like to back
bigger price animals - 10 horses have placed at prices of 33/1 or
bigger since 1997.

In the Foxhunters 5 of the last 10 winners were returned at prices
between 16/1 and 33/1 - so nobody can be chastised for looking in
the nether reaches of the market in search of a 'live' dark horse.
The average winning SP weighs in at 14/1 over the last 6 years.

Don't expect a big outsider to take the Grand Annual. The race is
the final event of the week and will represent the 'get out stakes'
for punters sitting on big losses for the meeting. And the race
gives punters a fighting chance. Thirty of the last 36 renewals were
won by horses that started at no bigger than 10/1 - so your efforts
should be focused on the runners in the top quarter of the market.
The average 6-yearly winning SP is just over 11/1.

Targeting the Grand Annual....

For many punters the Grand Annual Chase will represent the fabled
'Get Out Stakes' - the last opportunity of the Festival meeting to
turn the tides of fortune and snatch last-minute redemption from the
pincer-like grip of defeat.

An average winning SP of 10/1 over the last 6 years suggests punters
have a fighting chance of picking the race right. And, in the spirit
of sympathy - should any be required - I present my race winning
profile to help you sort the 'live' hopes from the no hopers...
here's what you need to bear in mind:

• You need to stay 2m2f: All of the last 11 winners had won over
  a 2m trip before turning up here. But a closer look at the race -
  and the stats - reveals something much more interesting. You have to
  be able to stay quite a bit further than 2m to be able to win a
  Grand Annual. The pace in this race is blistering - much quicker
  than most of the runners will be used to - and horses that just
  about get the 2m trip will be flagging. Twelve of the last 14
  winners had won over 2m2f+ - and similar horses in this year's
  renewal are of considerable interest.

• Consider the course form carefully: Course experience is
  significant. 6 the last 9 winners had won at Cheltenham before
  winning the Grand Annual.

• Certainly don't discount previous Festival efforts: The stats
  show that Festival form has been a significant pointer to past
  winners of this. Seven of the last 11 winners had previous Festival
  form - including Pigeon Island, last year's winner, who had run
  previously in the 2007 Supreme Novice Hurdle.

• Stick with the lightweights: In chases over the minimum
  distance it's all about speed and fluent jumping. Carrying big
  weights assists neither and the stats in this race confirm the view.
  None of the last 11 winners carried more than 10-11 to victory.

• Take heed of the ratings data: Ten of the last 11 Grand Annual
  Chase winners were rated 129 to 143 on the official handicapper's
  scale coming into this race - 8 of them were rated between 129 and
  134.

• Make the round dozen your cut-off point: The stats say that
  too much experience is a bad thing going into a Grand Annual. None
  of the last 11 previous winners had raced more than 12 times over
  fences when winning this race.

• Strike a line through the veterans: Sticking with that anti-
  age theme - 10 of the last 11 previous Grand Annual winners won at
  9-years of age. Horses exceeding this requirement can be considered
  candidates for scratching.

• Pay careful attention to the novices: Five of the last 11
  renewals of the Grand Annual were won by horses that contested a
  novice chase during the current season - all were rated between 129
  and 134 on the official scale.

That should give you a shortlist of solid contenders to make a final
selection from.

The Racing at Cheltenham might be coming to an end but there's
plenty of other opportunities to make money coming up, if you have
access to the right information....

Cash-in on the Premier League football this weekend

Racing is my number one game - but I do enjoy my football too. Never
more so than when I'm twisting a few quid out of the bookmaker -
like I have done over the past few weeks with 7 of my last 10 bets
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Now, I'd like to puff my little chest out and put my football
betting prowess down to my own brilliance. But the truth is a bit
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Give the service a try until the end of the season and see how much
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The next bets are this weekend, so act fast....

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Until next time, be lucky.

30th March 2011

Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus....

• The cryptic nature of Festival races....
  
• Opposing the crowd pays dividends ....
  
• The short priced horses ran down to expectation....

The cryptic nature of Festival races....

Towards the end of February I sent you a couple of free Festival
previews - one of which was called Opposing the Crowd at the
Cheltenham Festival.

In that preview I outlined some of the basic reasons why the market
as a whole finds it so difficult to identify and back winners in
volume at the meeting:

• Every runner that shows up at the Festival - whichever race it
  is contesting - has been aimed, trained and tuned up to be pitch
  perfect on the day.

• Every single runner is trying - that's guaranteed. Not a
  single runner is being 'saved' for some future prize or being given
  an easy 'blow' in preparation for some race in two weeks time.

• Every single runner is there with aspirations of winning. The
  result is 27 highly competitive races with multiple 'live'
  contenders going hell for leather against one another in all of
  them.

Add to that the fact that there are multiple races specifically for
young, lightly-raced horses - open to improvement that simply can't
be measured or accurately predicted.

And add to that the fact that in the handicap races shrewd trainers,
eager to gain every single edge they can, will have protected the
handicap marks of their 'live' runners by limiting their racecourse
appearances and making sure - one way or another - that their
charges are not seen at their best until the big day at the
Festival. It's another one of those situations you can only guess
at. You cannot know for certain.

Now add to all that the usual happenstances that can affect the
outcome of an individual horse's race - bad luck, trouble in running
and physical breakdown - and you've got a recipe for cryptic
difficulty. Is it any wonder that punters find the Festival races
fiendishly difficult to solve?

Opposing the crowd pays dividends....

The bottom-line point is that in an environment as competitive as a
Festival race you are going to find multiple horses with strong
chances of winning.

And, when that's the case, there's a strong chance that the horses
trading at the shortest prices are overvalued by the market - the
short price overestimates the horse's true chances of winning the
race.

That observation has certainly been given credence at the most
recent Festivals. Between 2004 and 2010 the market sent 162 Festival
horses off at SPs of 4/1 or under. Just 36 of those horses won - the
other 78% lost.

Clearly, as a group the short-price Festival horses are of
significant interest to exchange layers because, as a group, they
produce a high volume of losing performances - and can be layed
(opposed) on the exchanges for relatively low liabilities.

And opposing horses from that group was the course of action I
recommended again at this year's Festival in Opposing the Crowd at
the Cheltenham Festival. I hope you managed to find time to read the
preview before the Festival. If not, just to recap, I said:

'Festival races are more competitive than the market would suggest
and laying more fancied runners on the exchanges has been a
profitable strategy to adopt in recent times... Top-class fields
like those found at the Cheltenham Festival consist of multiple
animals who can win - often at prices which underestimate their true
chances. Your betting strategy for the forthcoming Festival would
benefit from incorporating that fact.'

And so it proved once again...

The short-price horses ran right down to expectation....

Punters who followed the advice and zeroed in on the horses trading
at the shortest prices - with a view to laying them on the exchanges
- had plenty of cause to be happy.

At this year's Festival 29 horses were sent off by the market at SPs
of 4/1 or shorter. Just 7 of them managed to justify the market
support by winning their respective races. The other 22 (or 76%) of
them got beat - a losing strike rate percentage in line with what
we've come to expect over the last 7 year cycle.

Here's a full checklist of this year's Festival shorties and the
overall outcome of their races....

Had you managed to lay all these runners at SP (unlikely to say the
least because prices tend to be slightly bigger than SP on the
exchanges) you'd have made a profit in excess of 4 points.

But laying all the qualifiers on the basis of price alone isn't the
point - or necessarily the best way forward. The price merely
indicates that the horse is worth focusing on more closely as a
potential lay.

For example, I would never have given any consideration to laying
Quevega or Big Buck's. Both were sent off short but their respective
form records suggested this was because they were the best horses in
their respective races on all known form - not because they were
over-hyped or overvalued by a market missing a trick.

The trick with identifying a fruitful group of horses is to cherry
pick the individuals within the group that best suit a lay strategy
- the horses with evident and obvious holes in their form records.
Horses like:

• Time for Rupert - who traded at short prices without having
  contested a Graded chase and having only raced twice over the bigger
  obstacles - both deal-breakers in recent renewals of the RSA chase.

• Cue Card - who went into the Supreme well fancied despite not
  meeting the profile of a Supreme winner (having failed to win last
  time out) and despite going into the race off a longer than
  desirable break from the racecourse.

• Imperial Commander - whose connections expected him to go to
  Cheltenham and produce of his best against the very best chasers on
  the block with just one seasonal racecourse appearance under his
  belt - and that some 118 days earlier.

I think some punters want to latch onto to every winning bet - and
that desire to be involved in every potential win can lead to
involvement with a lot of losers. The selective approach pays best.
One successful lay per day over the Festival - to a £100 level stake
- produces a profit of £400 minus commission. And that would
represent a good return on the week for the majority of smaller-
scale players.

Bear the shorties in mind next year....

When next year's Festival rolls around it will be worth bearing in
mind the recent record of Festival shorties. They are a route to
profit. For me, they are the most obvious source of Festival
pickings out there.

Next season I'll be taking the opposition of Festival shorties a
step further and I'll be laying any horse trading at short prices
for any Festival race - from October onwards.

If a horse I've laid actually gets to the Festival intact and still
at a short price then the stats say it stands a good chance of being
turned over...

If it drifts in price between the time I lay it and the off time for
the race at the Festival then I will simply back the horse at a
bigger price and guarantee myself a no-lose bet-to-nothing on the
horse...

And by laying the horse early I'll also be set to benefit from any
circumstance or event that renders the horse a non-runner... because
it will be paid out as a loser on the exchanges...

Just a few thoughts to be going on with....

Until next time, be lucky.