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30th May 2008
Good afternoon, friends,
- What you know, what you don't and the stuff you can't...
- What Kieren did next...
- Coursework that will put you top of the class...
A twist in the Fallon and Catlin tale...
A couple of issues back I noted some comments made by Kieren Fallon on fellow jockey Chris Catlin during an interview on At The Races.
Fallon said, 'He's by far the most improved rider in England... He's strong, effective and looks good.'
On the basis that a rider of Fallon's calibre can be expected to know a decent jockey when he sees one, I suggested that Catlin was worth keeping an eye on this season and I outlined specific circumstances where it might pay to keep him in mind.
Now, my mind hasn't changed on this. Catlin's results and returns with the specific trainers I highlighted speak for themselves and you can follow the partnerships I drew attention to with confidence.
However, in the interests of fairness and in the spirit of sharing insights and information (after all that's why I write HRF) I feel duty-bound to report the contents of an email I received from HRF reader, Gary C, who suggests Fallon's appraisal of Catlin's riding abilities might not be driven by simple professional respect.
Gary says, 'Your piece on Chris Catlin has to be viewed in the context that Kieren Fallon is the partner of Kirsty Milzcarek, who is the best friend of Hayley Turner, who is the partner of Chris Catlin!! My reading between the lines was that Fallon was giving a leg up to Catlin, and should be viewed as such.'
The pitfalls of thinking between the lines...
Now I don't follow the tangled soap opera of relationships and romantic liaisons within racing, so I can't confirm or deny what Gary C says. But I've no reason whatsoever to doubt the man and I take him at his word.
Maybe Gary is right. And maybe he isn't. Fallon might very well have made the same comments whether or not Catlin represented potential brother-in-law material. We can't know. And we never will.
But we can take something instructive from this situation - if only a conclusion. Reading between the lines (as I did when I made my original assessment of Fallon's comments) is not a perfect science. Sometimes you get it right. But, because of what you don't and often can't know, you can miss an important detail and take actions based on faulty and wrongheaded thinking.
Whether or not that's the case here is immaterial. I raise the subject to highlight the risks thinking between the lines presents. It won't stop me in the future. I enjoy the clue-finding too much. And I enjoy it when I make a between-the-lines interpretation of what I'm seeing, hearing or reading and it directs me towards a winning bet or a lucrative angle.
Misinterpretations or getting it wrong are part of the game - to be expected and to be acknowledged when the facts emerge - and to be learnt from like anything else.
Word to the wise: Thinking between the lines of what you see, hear and read is a useful tool that can give you a sharp edge, point you to winners and reveal profitable angles. However, there will be occasions when the facts you aren't aware of trip you up.
Oh no, Kieren! Not you too...!
Kieren Fallon, a jockey I admire and a character I can't help but like, is the latest racing insider to join the pay-as-you-go tipping club.
His Cambridge office is currently sending out letters to punters like you and I and inviting 'serious' people to join a 'select group' prepared to invest 'reasonable' sums of money on one or two horses per week etc etc. You know the drill, folks.
And you know how I feel about this kind of tipping service. I'm not keen, to say the least. And I must admit I'm slightly disappointed that someone who figures highly on my list of personal heroes has chosen to walk this shadowy path.
I guess things must be tough right now for the banned ex-champion jockey, and on that basis I'm prepared to look the other way. But I have to remain consistent with my principles and advise you to give the service a swerve as I would with any other such service.
Tipping ain't easy - whoever you are!
The omens don't look too hot in any case. You may be aware that Fallon has recently set up his own website where registered users can access free information he provides on horses to follow, eyecatchers on the gallops and stable stars to watch out for.
Reading between the lines (told you I wouldn't stop!) of a snippy email Fallon recently sent to subscribers in response to 'many recent emails' it appears the information he's providing isn't meeting with too much in the way of gratitude.
He says, 'I have removed some of the recent 'gallop reports' and 'eyecatchers' from the website. This is not because such horses have lost (which is the reason most people are suggesting). Instead it's because the designers of my webpage only allow for 10 reports per page.... I'm doing my best to give something back to all the loyal people that have followed me and supported me over the years and a little recognition rather than numerous complaints and moans would be appreciated.'
Oh dear... complaints and moans tend to dry up when you produce winning information. When the ex-champion jockey - whose credentials, contacts and current involvement with the sport (he currently rides out for the Stoute yard) cannot be questioned - struggles to produce a steady flow of winners, it only serves to highlight there are no short cuts and no magic solutions when it comes to making make sense of and profits from the sport.
Word to the wise: Those who make their living from horse race betting don't just log onto some tipping website every day and harvest a cash crop of winners without effort. If it were that easy we'd all be doing it. Instead, the professionals do what most punters refuse to - they work hard, find their own angles and bet selectively in light of the findings.
Coursework that will put you at the top of the class...
With hard work and finding your own steady stream of winners in mind, here's some work you can do for yourself that will give you a definite edge over the majority of racing punters in the marketplace: get to know the layouts and characteristics of every racecourse in the land.
Getting an edge can boil down to being prepared to do what the rest of the market isn't. And getting to grips with the various personalities and idiosyncrasies of the British racecourses is a case in point.
I know punters who've played the horses for years and still can't tell you whether Goodwood is right or left-handed, whether sprints are run on the straight, right or left handed at Ayr, whether Sandown has an uphill finish or not and whether Doncaster is a galloping or sharp track.
Worse still, some of them (and some of these people actually work in the betting industry and consider themselves walking authorities on race betting) don't see the point of finding out.
Getting to grips with the different courses is something I worked hard on, and I'm continually refreshing my knowledge of the subject. For me there's a definite point to knowing the difference between the sprint tracks at Goodwood and Ayr, for example. There's definite value in the knowledge.
In some respects horses are like humans - in that many of them have specific preferences. Just as some horses like it soft and others firm, some reserve their best performances for courses with specific aspects.
Some might need a right handed track to perform at their best. Others might need an uphill finish. Some might bomb every time they're confronted with a galloping track. Others still might reserve their very best for tracks with sharp, tight turns that slow the big old gallopers down.
When you come to look at a horse's form record - particularly its wins and runs where it earned its best ratings - this kind of information can leap out at you. You can quickly and easily spot that the horse really appreciates a left-handed track or a stiff uphill finish over 7f or 8f. Or you might see that the same horse has shown it never does well at galloping, right-handers over the same distance.
No effort... No reward...
I'm pretty sure you can see that this kind of analysis can steer you towards good bets and away from bad ones? If a horse is getting its preferred track conditions today, he is worth further consideration. If he's getting what he's proven in the past he doesn't like then you can strike a line through his name with some degree of certainty.
But the fact is you'll never see these underlying patterns and trends if you don't know your stuff. To develop this kind of insight you first have to do the work. It's not easy - but what is that is worth having? Every track is different with multiple distances to take into consideration. It requires close study and plenty of time. But the results of such work make the effort more than worthwhile.
Start with one track at a time - either flat or jumps. Make notes. Compare and contrast the courses you look at. Put the effort in and you'll soon see the patterns develop. When you know your stuff off by heart - then you'll really have a tool for running the rule over participants in any race and splitting the field into probables and no-hopers.
Both the Racing Post and Sporting Life websites provide maps and descriptions of all UK and Irish racecourses and represent the best places to start your research.
Word to the wise: Get to grip with track aspects and you'll have knowledge and insight only a small proportion of the betting market possesses - that's a real edge.
Until next time, be lucky.
23rd May 2008
Good afternoon, friends,
- Specialization is the key to punting success on the horses...
- Two methods of sharpening your edge in the sprint handicaps...
Shotgun punting will blow big holes in your betting bank...
It's the time of year when the racing is wall to wall - from early afternoon to dusk. Today, for example, we have eight meetings in the UK and Ireland - over the jumps and on the flat. The racing starts at Brighton at 2.00 and finishes at Pontefract at 9.00. During the interim period more than 50 races will be run involving hundreds of horses.
Walk into any bookmakers shop in the country and you'll find an embittered gaggle of hardened patrons betting on as many of these races as time or diminishing funds allow. They'll be winging their money over the counter like there's no tomorrow and very little left of today.
One thing I can guarantee you - there will be no discrimination in their activity. 3-mile chases, maidens for 2 year olds, novice hurdles, sprint handicaps, sellers, conditions races, bumpers - all races are the same to these guys. The principle that guides their betting appears to be this: 'If the race is being run then I'm betting on it, pal!'
These punters can't possibly know all the horses they are betting on. They can't possibly be following some kind of systematic approach. Instead, they are in the grip of a random approach - betting on anything and everything - simply because it is being served up to them.
I refer to these gamblers as the punting equivalent of a sawn-off shotgun. They do not aim at any specific target. Instead they loose off volleys of shot in all directions, hoping to take the head off something - anything. It's an approach that can make a real mess of a betting bank. Bet like this and over time you will be a loser. Your bookmaker will love you like a son.
For better betting results you should focus your efforts...
There's so much racing that nobody on this planet can possibly be an expert in every area.
There's just isn't the time in the day. And any punter who sets out to be the Jack of all trades will end up master of none and short of money to boot.
With so much racing to choose from the key to being a winning punter is specialisation.
If you focus your attention on one small area of racing you can become an expert - and that's a real edge. You can know more about a small group of horses, a trainer, a course, a jockey or a specific race type than the vast majority of people you are betting against - with a minimum of effort.
And, if you do the necessary work the fruits will be seen in your betting performance. In-depth knowledge of one or two specific areas of racing will put you streets ahead of the average punter when it comes to avoiding bad bets and latching onto the good ones.
So what to specialize on?
Well, my advice is to focus on the specific areas you like and already know a little about. It's a case of personal preference.
For many years during the flat season I've specialised on the 5f and 6f sprint handicaps for older horses. Not everybody's cup of tea, for sure. But I like the area because I have a few methods and strategies which enable me to get an edge over the market for a minimum investment of my time.
Specialization in a specific area of racing doesn't mean you have to give up your job, sacrifice your family life and become a recluse. You don't have to devote your whole life to the effort. A couple of simple moves and a reasonable investment of time can pay real dividends and point you to bets the majority of the market will never latch on to.
To illustrate my point I thought it might be useful to share with you a couple of specific things I do with the handicap sprints I specialize in.
Spotting runs better than the bare result suggests....
In sprints at certain courses the draw can have an enormous bearing on the result. A good draw gives a horse a big advantage. A bad draw can scupper a horse's chances completely.
What I try and do is spot horses which run well from a bad draw - because these are future winners waiting to happen.
It's pretty simple to spot them. All you need do is study the racing results. You'll need to use the Racing Post (newspaper or website) or the Weekender or Raceform (both published midweek) because they contain detailed results - including information about which stall a horse ran from. Normal daily newspapers don't go into such depth.
Now, let's say we're looking at the result of a 16-runner 6-furlong sprint handicap at Course A. The stall in which a horse was drawn appears in brackets.
1st Big Boy (1)
2nd Bad Lad (3)
3rd Top Man (14)
4th Old Son (2)
It's a simplistic example, but it helps me illustrate clearly how the method works.
The horses drawn low enjoyed an obvious advantage - filling three of the first four places. But what's significant to me, and what I will be making a note of, is how well Top Man ran given he was drawn high.
Had the horse enjoyed the advantage of being drawn low then you'd have to conclude he might even have won this race. His poor draw has probably denied Top Man a win.
In short, Top Man is better than the bare result suggests. He is a winner waiting to happen.
Next time out I'd be backing Top Man assuming conditions and circumstances suit him. The wider market - who haven't taken the time to check the results out thoroughly - will be unaware of how on top of his game Top Man is. The market will underestimate him. You'll be surprised how often this simple method can direct you to next-time out winners/placers at nice prices.
Turning a horse's bad luck into a good bet next time out....
Something else I do is to try and spot horses which experience bad luck in sprint races but still manage to finish their races well. Again, these can be future winners in waiting.
I'm interested in horses which break slowly from the stalls, or horses which get barged and put out of their rhythm, or horses which stumble or have their heels clipped and lose ground, or horses who get trapped behind a wall of competitors and don't get a clear run - yet still finish the race strongly. Such horses suggest there is more to come given better fortune.
Given better fortune under conditions and circumstances that suit, these horses represent good bets undervalued by the rest of the market.
Making the most of this angle requires some effort. Sure, you can rely on race reader comments in the Racing Post or whichever form guide you use. But you'd be surprised at how much the average race reader misses.
It really is worth your while recording the races you are interested in and watching the race over and over again. I've been known to watch sprint handicaps up to 24 times - focusing on a single runner from start to finish each time. It does my girlfriend's head in - but I can't let that bother me. To stop would be to cut off a source of some nice priced winners for me.
Watching races in this kind of detail can reveal all kinds of useful information missed by the race readers (who can't possibly see everything) and which goes unreported in any coverage or form assessment of the race. Being in possession of information the rest of the market is unaware of is a true cutting edge. Over time the value of such information will be reflected in your betting performance.
Word to the wise: You could never hope to study every horse in training or every type of race at every conceivable distance over both codes in such detail. But if you specialize on a specific area then you buy yourself time. The workload is manageable and possible. And the fruits of this labour will be reflected in a better betting performance.
Until next time, be lucky.
Greetings!
- The clues in the race-card
- Wanted - volunteers to road-test a brand new betting service
In response to a number of emails, today I'm going to run through the information - or 'clues' for our purposes of sniffing out winners - available on all meetings' race-cards. Including what it means, why it's there and the impact it can have on a runner's chances.
Although the layout might vary according to the publication or format, all race-cards list essentially the same information and are freely available in the daily racing papers, online and (for selected meetings) in most newspapers.
At the top of the card, you'll typically see the race details. See example below:
| 3:40 |
Queen Elizabeth Stakes |
2m 3f |
| |
Prize money £150,000 |
|
This tells you the time (in this case 3.40pm), the name of the race (Queen Elizabeth Stakes), the distance (2 miles, 3 furlongs) and the prize money (£150,000). Sometimes you will also be advised of the 'class' of the race and regularly updated websites will also provide a guide to the type of ground too.
Gazing downwards, you'll see the list of horses contesting the race. Usually looking something like this:
| No. |
Form |
Horse |
Trainer |
Age |
Weight |
Jockey |
Colours |
| 1 |
1-21U3 |
NAILED ON CERT |
A. Trainer |
9 |
11-10 |
A. Jockey |
Red cap/ Yellow silks |
When it comes to your betting, forget the idea of 'lucky' numbers or colours - or any perceived omens in the horse's name. All this will do is relieve you of your money and make you the bookies' best friend.
The number and colours are purely to help you identify your runner if you're actually watching the race. It is the Form, Weight, Trainer and Jockey that can help provide the clues to how it is going to perform.
Form
The row of numbers before the horse's name tells you where it finished in its most recent races. 1,2,3 mean first, second and third place finishes and 0 normally indicates a placing outside the first 3 or 4.
A dash (-) is used to separate this season's form from last, 'P' means the horse pulled (did not finish). An 'R' means the horse refused to race, 'F' indicates a faller and 'U' that the rider was unseated (the last two reflect jump races).
Weight and Age
These two figures are often displayed together - the horse's age ahead of the weight (in the example above, the horse is 9 years old and carrying 11 stone 10 lbs. This is the total weight, including the jockey and any handicaps.
As I've mentioned in previous weeks, a horse's age can have a major bearing on its performances. Horses generally need to mature for their best and most reliable performances, particularly key over jumps or longer distances.
Trainers and Jockeys
Another key area. You'll see many Trainer/ Jockey partnerships, as well as Jockey/ Horse partnerships - based on the Trainer's understanding of what certain horses need from their rider, or purely in the interests of building familiarity.
The more clues you can have prior to the off, the better. But even the most basic of pre-race information published here - and freely available in most newspapers - is essential before even considering parting with your hard-earned.
I'll be returning to the subject of sniffing out winners to more forensic levels of detail in future weeks.
Word to the wise: Leave all 'lucky' number, names and colours at the door. The more pre-race information you can get the better. Get 'forensic' - the clues are there.
Until next time, be lucky!
9th May 2008
Good afternoon, friends,
- Big Slick - a winner flagged up in advance if you were watching....
- What Fallon said about Catlin and how to use it....
- What they say can help you make the game pay....
Winner finding clues.... The truth is out there
As with any other field of endeavor, racing - or racing punting - rewards mental engagement and action. It punishes passivity and laziness. In short... finding winners requires work.
Fortunately, the work is bearable. You don't have to roll your sleeves up, work up a sweat or maul your tripes out. Winner-finding clues present themselves to us all the time. In this situation all we have to do is engage our eyes, ears and critical minds and make sure we notice.
You will need to be in the right place at the right time. But, where racing is concerned, fortune definitely favours the couch potato. The right place and time can be on your settee, in front of the TV, when the racing is on. You just have to be there and remain alert to what you see and hear.
Big Slick - a winner flagged up in advance....
Take the afternoon of 1st May. Racing UK are covering the meeting at Redcar. The Maiden Auction has just been run and won by Knavesmire ridden by T Williams. He's being interviewed and congratulated for his ride. Towards the end of the segment, Williams mentions to the interviewer how much he's looking forward to his first ride at Musselburgh the following day.
Jockeys often say such things. But, and feel free to call this an intuitive response or reading between the lines, this wasn't just a jockey making the usual mealy-mouthed noises to oblige the trainer and connections. There was discernible enthusiasm and confidence underpinning what he said - you could sense his expectation and intent. At least I could.
When my intuition kicks in, I tend to sit up and pay attention. I follow the instinct. Jockeys can be expected to feel good about riding horses with genuine chances. My intuitive response was that this jockey felt good and, whether he intended to or not, he was communicating to anybody who cared to listen that his mount the next day had serious chances.
It didn't take long to figure out which horse he was talking about. A quick visit to the Racing Post website and a look at the following day's card revealed that the runner in question was Big Slick. Fast forward 24 hours and Big Slick, with T Williams onboard, made all to win the handicap by two and a half lengths at the very rewarding price of 6/1.
It was all there in advance.... if you were watching, listening and alert enough to notice.
The TV racing coverage can provide plenty of winner-finding clues and little edges. The best of these aren't always obvious and require the active participation of your observational and critical facilities. But that's a small price to pay for a profitable steer.
Word to the wise: Watch closely, listen carefully and think between the lines when watching the racing coverage. The rewards are worth the effort.
What Fallon said about Catlin....
I watched Kieran Fallon being interviewed by Matt Lucas on At The Races last week. The interview covered Fallon's successes, the recent Betfair court case, his current drug ban and the events surrounding it, but Lucas also asked Fallon for his assessment of various flat jockeys.
Given that Fallon is a six-time Champion Jockey with over 1000 winners under his belt - including numerous classics and group races - has ridden 100+ winners in a season 8 times, and has worked for some of the best trainers in the business (Michael Stoute, Aiden O'Brien, Henry Cecil, amongst other luminaries), it's fair to say his appraisal of any jockey would be instructional. And so it proved.
Having heard him comment on Ryan Moore, Jamie Spencer, Richard Hughes and Jimmy Fortune, I was interested to hear Fallon comment on Chris Catlin, saying, 'He's by far the most improved rider in England.... He's strong, effective and looks good.' Fallon went on to express his surprise that Catlin hasn't yet landed a top job at a major yard but predicted that this will happen sooner rather than later.
Catlin's name won't appear at the head of many punters' lists of the top flat jockeys. He's still relatively off-the-radar and unfashionable. But Fallon has obviously identified something in the rider - and if he is right then Catlin is worth keeping an eye on.
Partnerships it could pay to latch onto....
Based on the general principle that the best time to get on any bandwagon is before it leaves the station, I felt sufficiently motivated to take a closer look at Catlin's record. I wanted to run the rule over him and identify circumstances where it will pay to keep him in mind this season. My research highlighted some interesting partnerships Catlin has forged with smaller trainers.
I've made a note to look out for Catlin riding horses trained by J R Weymes. Over five years, Catlin has ridden 21 times for this trainer - winning 6. Last year that record improved to 3 winners from 4 rides and produced a profit of £37.83 to level stakes if you backed them.
I'm also going to be taking an interest in Catlin's rides for S Gollings for whom Catlin has ridden 4 winners from 28 runners over the last five years at a £27.00 profit to level stakes.
Also his rides for G R Oldroyd where the record last year was 4 winners from 20 mounts at a profit of £43.00 to level stakes.
Finally, SP Griffiths's older runners (4yo+) will be of interest when piloted by Catlin. Last year the pair struck twice from just 3 runners at a £7.50 profit to level stakes.
Word to the wise: Learn from the greats. Those who have been there, done it and bought the tea towel are well worth listening to. Their insight can inform your thinking and point towards lucrative betting opportunities you might otherwise have missed.
What they say can help you make the game pay....
Racing is the beat I police and, as such, I spend a lot of time watching the racing coverage on TV. It's a dirty job - but someone's got to do it. But that's not all I do. I also spend a lot of time on the Internet in the search for information that will inform my betting.
I like figuring out the handicaps - and the Chester Cup run on Wednesday was no exception. The first thing I try to do in any race is find ways of splitting the field into probables and horses for which reasons exist to oppose them (these can turn into lays on the exchanges).
This generally takes a bit of work - at the very least some study of the form of each runner. But, the work doesn't always have to be onerous. Sometimes, everything we need to know in order to make a sensible and effective gambling decision is instantly available to us. You just have to be prepared to look and do a bit of thinking.
When you check a horse out on the Racing Post website, there's plenty of data to look out. And, where Wednesday's Chester Cup was concerned, looking at the previous quotes made by some connections with regard to their Chester Cup runners, proved very instructive.
Take Wing Collar, for example. Comments previously made about this horse enabled me to strike it from my list of probables.
Out of the mouths of connections....
In the top right hand corner of the Racing Post website there's a search bar. Type 'Wing Collar' into that and then doubleclick on the link it produces. This will bring up a tabbed window containing all manner of information on the horse.
Click on the 'quotes' tab. This will enable you to see a comment made about the horse in 2005 by trainer, Tim Easterby. 'He's a big, galloping horse, a typical In The Wings...'
What this told me is that Wing Collar would not be suited by the tight nature of the Chester track - which is only a mile in circumference and requires horses to handle tight turns. Galloping types ideally require long stretches of track to build up to top speed and full momentum. The tight turns of Chester work against galloping types - and these types are unlikely to produce at the track.
Wing Collar could be laid on the exchanges at 16/1. That's too much of a liability in my book. I like to lay shorter prices and I swerved the bet. But, in the time it took to read a few words, from a quote made in 2005, I knew I could strike a line through Wing Collar's name with some confidence.
Highland Legacy looked likely to go off favourite in the race. And I got quite excited when I read the previous quotes made about him. In April, following a race at Ripon, his jockey, Neil Callan, made the following observation: 'He does want some cut in the ground.'
I'm currently based in Stoke, not a million miles from Chester. In the 48 hours leading up to the off, the whether had been hot and sunny - ideal for drying out ground. My feeling was that Highland Legacy would not get the cut in the ground he needs to produce his best. Watching the races before the Chester Cup it was clear the horses weren't producing the kickback you see on softer going.
Given these circumstances, Highland Legacy's 4/1 price looked overvalued and the horse represented a definite lay opportunity. In the event, Highland Legacy ran a decent race but could only finish 5th, beaten just over 9 lengths. I came out of the race with a nice profit from my lay - a profit built on the back of just ten minutes digging on the Racing Post website, a bit of thought and some observation.
Word to the wise: Time spent researching is time well spent. Often, the information we need to make effective betting decisions is surprisingly easy to uncover - sometimes staring us right in the face.
Until next time, be lucky.
2nd May 2008
Good afternoon, friends,
- Tipsters who say they can't get on are telling porkies....
- The Guineas winner will need a fine blend of speed and stamina....
Introducing my new pen pal....
Last issue I talked about the pitfalls of getting involved with 'pay-as-you-go' tipsters - specifically the bad value you're exposed to when backing their selections and putting a stake on for the tipster in addition to your own.
The 'pay-as-you-go' boys and their claims have been on my mind again this week. And it's impossible for me to leave the subject alone until I've revealed the truth about a common claim they peddle in order to entice you into their clutches. My intention is to extinguish completely and finally any smoldering desires you might harbour about using such services.
This week I received a letter from Geoff Huffer - trainer of last year's 2000 guineas winner, Cockney Rebel. Mr Huffer's training credentials can't be questioned. His record speaks for itself with over 600 winners (including three Royal Ascot successes, an Ayr Gold Cup 1-2 and a Cesarewitch) and a hard-won reputation for turning cut-price horses into Group winners.
But Mr Huffer is no longer a trainer, having relinquished his licence. He's now ploughing a very different furrow. In his letter he tells me that he now plans to 'concentrate on the betting side where there are huge sums to be made over the coming months.'
'Obviously,' he continues 'I am very friendly with all the top trainers and jockeys in Newmarket.... I also spend 5 mornings a week watching all the work that takes place in the town and because of who I am, I get to know far more than any other work watcher.'
Then he gets down to his reason for writing to me out of the blue. '.... I mean business and I can be a massive help to you in your quest to make money from your bookmaker.'
Relying on the kindness of total and utter strangers....
At this stage I must clarify that Mr Huffer isn't writing to me because I write Horse Racing Focus. Or because he knows me. Or because he has heard of me through my career in this business. He's written to me for one reason only - because my name and my fourth most-recent address appear on some ageing mailing list in his possession. I'm a complete stranger to Mr Huffer.
Nevertheless, Mr Huffer has written because he needs my help. Why? Because he has 'big problems in placing money with the bigger bookmakers.'
Now, there's no doubt that Mr Huffer has played his part in betting coups that have netted serious money for the connections of horses he's been associated with over the years. How much of it ended up in his pockets I can't say. But this reputation for pulling off 'huge punts' over the years is, Mr Huffer says, the reason why he now can't get his bets on and take advantage of his insider knowledge.
So.... he finds himself requiring 'a select group of discreet and patient people' who can place £100 on his behalf on horses he earmarks as winners.
In short, Mr Huffer is offering a 'pay-as-you-go' tipping service. He gives you the tips. You put your money on - and £100 for Mr Huffer. If the horse wins you send him his winnings. If the horse loses, you pay nothing.
Does any of this strike you as odd?
Mr Huffer writes a convincing letter. He can point to great success as a trainer. He lives close to Newmarket (flat racing headquarters) and is doubtless well-known there and privy to all manner of information unavailable to the masses. On the face of it he's everything you'd want from a professional tipster. But, when I analysed what I was being told, I just couldn't make any sense of it.
For example, is Mr Huffer suggesting he is blacklisted by EVERY bookmaker in creation?
You will know as well as I do just how many bookmakers are out there touting for business. Can he really be feared and red-flagged by them all? It's unlikely. So why doesn't he get on with one of the firms that hasn't blacklisted him?
What's stopping him getting his money down on course?
And doesn't Mr Huffer have family, close friends or trusted associates who can help him get his bets on without revealing himself? How come he's reduced to contacting complete strangers like me for help?
And, last but not least, what's preventing Mr Huffer from getting his bets matched on a betting exchange? On the betting exchanges nobody can or will limit his ability to bet. Nobody he'd be betting against would know who he is, what he's betting on or how successful he is.
Unlike with a bookmaker, where the opposite is the case, he won't be marked up, his stakes won't be limited and his account will not be closed down because he is winning. Winning is encouraged on the betting exchanges. You can bet as much as you like. You can win as much as you like. You will not be penalised for it.
When the ideal solution is ignored.....
A betting exchange account is the ideal solution for Mr Huffer and his little problem. As it is for all the other 'pay-as-you-go' tipsters who peddle their dubious wares on the back of similar 'I can't get on... I'm a victim of my own success....' stories.
Betting exchanges enable them all to get their bets on. If they really want to. Whenever they want to. And, what's more, betting exchanges mean they can get on without having to share their insider information with a single living soul.
In short betting exchanges blow their claims about not being able to get on and needing your help with gambles right out of the water - exposing the claims as little more than a double-edged ruse designed to build credibility on one hand and to rationalize what is being proposed on the other.
The fact is these people don't want to bet. At least not using their own money. They want to bet using your hard-earned cash instead. That way the potential rewards come without any attendant risk to them.
Of course, 'pay-as-you-go' tipsters will argue blind that the information they provide is of the highest quality and value. But how much value do you place on a tip from a source who doesn't feel confident enough to back it with his own cash despite having the opportunity to do so readily available to him?
Mr Huffer was an extremely talented and successful trainer of racehorses. Right now he's a 'pay-as-you-go' tipster hoping the credibility he earned as a trainer will convince gullible punters to place bets for him on a no-risk-to-Geoff-Huffer basis. Take my advice and make sure you're not one of them.
Word to the wise: When a tipster tells you he can't get his money down and needs your help with pulling off gambles - run for the hills. Exchanges enable anybody to bet - anonymously and without restriction. The 'I-can't-get-a bet-on' boys are sharp operators who want to access potential profits whilst you take all the risk. Avoid them.
A 2000 Guineas horse must possess a mix of speed and stamina....
The Newmarket Guineas meeting marks the start of the flat season proper for me and over the next 24 hours I'll be finalising my selection for the race.
The 2000 Guineas traditionally requires the winner to demonstrate a fine balance of speed and stamina. The pace is fast and the winner needs to be quick enough to be up with it. But the winner will also need to kick on off that fast pace and stay the mile right up to the line.
Plenty of horses demonstrate the necessary speed but what about the stamina? This is the unknown quantity.
But we do know one thing for certain. IBN KHALDUN is one of only two runners in the race with winning experience at Group level over a mile - the distance over which the Guineas is contested. His wins at Doncaster and Ascot last term prove his stamina and suggest his jockey, Frankie Dettori, can ride him into heat of battle with total confidence that his mount will still be scrapping at the business end of the race.
The other with a win over a mile at group level is Scintillo. But that win came at San Siro in Italy and what he beat that day is open to question.
Raven's Pass and New Approach, both market fancies and rightfully so, are group winners over 7 furlongs and definite contenders. But both are yet to be tested over the mile.
For 3-year old horses, still growing and maturing, that extra furlong coming off a red hot pace can represent a bridge too far - certainly first time up. It isn't unusual to see fancied horses weaken significantly in the final throes of the guineas. IBN KHALDUN is sure to get the trip. He is battle tested at a mile and sets the current benchmark at the distance for this season's Guineas field. It's an important factor to bear in mind when you come to analyse the race yourself.
Word to the wise: When you consider the runners in this year's 2000 Guineas, bear in mind that IBN KHALDUN is the only runner in the race with proven form at Group level over a mile.
Until next time, be lucky.
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