Directory of Past issues - May 2009

7th May - Where to get your key trainer data

20th May - Why the going is good for Layers right now

29th May - Do you commit these three betting sins?

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7th May 2009

Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus...

• Where to get your 14-day trainer form data...
  
• Identify and study gambling yards...

Dipping into the mailbag...

HRF generates quite a mailbag for me. Occasionally other
commitments mean it takes me a little while to respond - but I
always get there in the end. I appreciate all your comments, I'm
grateful for your feedback and, when possible, I'm happy to answer
any questions you might have about something I've written.

Some of my articles generate more interest than others. Sometimes
an article will draw the same question from multiple readers.
Another will attract a dozen examples of the same request. In such
cases I tend to figure that the answer or the additional
information requested would probably be of interest to the wider
HRF readership.

Some recent issues of HRF have generated a fair bit of response...
And one or two requests appeared time and again... So in the
interests of openness and sharing information...

Where to get your 14-day trainer form data...

In April I wrote a piece that included references to 14-day trainer
form statistics. A number of you wrote asking where you could
access that data and do your own research.

The paper version of the Racing Post carries 14 day trainer form
tables - listing an individual trainer's runners, winners and
places over the period and the number of runners he is due to send
out on the day. The information is bare bones. But to the practiced
eye it does give a pretty instant indication of yards coming into
and hitting form. 

Go the Sporting Life home page and then select 'Racing' from the
menu on the left-hand side of the page. Then select 'Stats'. Here
you will find seasonal, 14-day and 7-day stats for trainers,
jockeys and trainer/jockey partnerships (for Flat and Jumps).
 
The lists are not comprehensive. What you're looking at are stats
on a selection of trainer's rather than the whole shebang. But
there is more information here - with win and place strike rate
percentages.

You can click on any trainer's name and you'll see a pop-up window
containing more information - including the handler's current 14-
day performance and his seasonal record presented one above the
other. This makes it easy to see when a trainer is outperforming
his seasonal average - a sure sign his string is in reasonable
heart.

Back on the Racing Post website you can look at any trainer's 14-
day form list. Let's say we want to have a look at Richard Fahey's
runners over the last 14 days. Go to the Racing Post home page. The
search function is on the right-hand-side. Type 'Fahey' and select
'Trainers' from the dropdown menu. Then press the red button to
start the search.

The result will list every trainer named Fahey in the database. Our
man is R A Fahey. Double-click on his name. A pop-up window should
open containing data and stats relating to Richard Fahey and his
runners. The opening tab shows you his runners and their
performances over the last 14 days. There's no statistical
breakdown of runners, wins, places etc. But it's a good place to
get an overview of the string and its form over the relevant
period.

Identify and study gambling yards...

Earlier in April I wrote a piece about specialisation and suggested
some areas that might be of interest. One of these was studying
trainers and identifying yards that gamble. I think I got about a
dozen emails asking me how to go about this. It's not an angle I
specialise in but I've dabbled from time to time and if I wanted to
quickly identify a few gambling yards I might go about it like
this... 

First, I'd be going through the Racing Post on a daily basis and
paying close attention to the 'Spotlight' comment attributed to
each runner. Now and again you'll find comments like 'interesting
if the market moves for him' or 'watch for market attention'.
Chances are you've found a yard with a track-record of getting the
money down when horses are really fancied.

It pays to subject such yards to further scrutiny:

• When horses from the yard are backed in - what's the
  win/place strike-rate? Are they short-prices? Who does the yard
  like onboard? Do they strike in specific types of race? With a
  specific type of horse? Does the yard like to land the spoils at
  specific tracks - maybe the local track?

• What does the trainer say before the race his backed-in
  runner wins - bullish, playing the horse down or silent? And what
  about afterwards - vindicated, surprised or looking like he's
  pulled a right flanker? We can learn something here. Human beings
  are creatures of habit - learning the patterns is learning
  something of the man or at least about how he operates. The
  objective has to be to spot signs of 'live' horses.  The trainer's
  behaviour and what he chooses to say can give us direction.

• Is there any specific bookmaker who always seems to go
  'short' on a live one from the yard? Has that firm got a line on
  the yard? Might their stance with their morning prices give you an
  early indication whether or not a runner is fancied? When to take a
  price or not?

These are just ideas... Food for thought...

Until next time, be lucky.

Good morning, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus...

• Short-price layers get the turkey...
  
• Identify stony ground and steer clear...
  
• Who gets the job done?... And who doesn't?

Short-priced layers are getting the turkey in May...

We're almost 2 months into the new flat season now and this is
where things begin to get interesting. Trainers have got plenty of
work and a run or two into their charges, the ground has firmed up
and those of us who like to take a bit of a sabbatical after the
jumps season winds down are suitably freshened up and ready to re-
engage with the markets.

So where do I start? What do I do? How do I connect with the huge
British turf flat programme, make some sense of it and identify
good angles I can exploit to make a bit of much-needed 'turkey'.

Well, for me, it's pretty straightforward. Before I even start
trying to identify 'winners', I like to take a look at the other
end of the spectrum and try to find losers. Most of the money I
make from racing comes from laying short-priced horses on the
exchanges - so it makes sense to focus my primary efforts in that
area.

Finding and laying 2 or 3 short-priced losers a week can provide a
decent 'wage'. Even when it goes wrong and a horse I've laid wins,
I can live with the losses because I'm laying at short-prices and
my liabilities are minimal. I only need to get it right a few times
more than I get it wrong to be ahead of the game and well in
profit.

So far, May has been a decent month for the layers of short-priced
horses on the betting exchanges. Up until end of racing yesterday,
47 horses had been sent off on the flat during May at prices less
than Evens (or odds-on). Of these, 22 justified the short price and
won their races. The remaining 53.2% lost - producing a 12.23 point
profit for layers. In other words, if you'd laid all 47 runners to
a £100 stake on the exchanges you'd be £1223.00 to the good with 12
days racing still to capitalize on.

Find the stony ground and steer clear...

That's not bad money? Of course, it's not always so
straightforward. Laying blind over a protracted period will expose
you to the full range of situations and emotions it's possible for
a racing punter to experience. There will be times when you're well
ahead and dancing in the streets, times when you're some way behind
and down in the dumps and large swathes of time when you're
somewhere in between.

However, the fact remains that the layers have got their noses in
front this flat season. Take March and April into account alongside
May and the situation looks like this: 89 odds-on runners, 51 odds-
on winners and an outcome that favours the layers to the tune of 7
points. Had you laid all 89 runners on the exchanges to the tune of
£100 you'd be sitting on a £701.00 profit for the season so far.
Not bad, but not great - and we can improve on it.

For a start we can identify the stony ground where our profits are
least likely to grow. Take race-distances, for example. Looking at
the performance of short-priced horses in relation to the distances
that they were running over provides some useful instruction. The
table below shows you the performance of short-priced horses during
March, April and May at various distances:

Even with just a cursory inspection, it's clear that races over
shorter distances are the races you want to be looking at when
seeking out short-priced horses to lay. Beyond 10f the strike rates
of short-priced horses increase and profits from laying them drop
off significantly.

Maybe in races over shorter distances mistakes are harder to put
right, bad luck gets harder to reverse, time to get in the right
spot runs out quicker, more runners make life more difficult, draw
positions take on more meaning? Whatever, shorter distances get
more short-priced horses turned over than longer distances. That's
good to know. You can formulate your strategy accordingly.

Identify who can get the job done...

Knowing who can get the job done with a short-priced runner is also
useful. Some trainers have a better record than others when it
comes to converting market favourites into winners. The same is
true of jockeys too.

Looking purely at this season's stats it's clear which trainers are
capable of producing horses whose subsequent performances justify
the short-prices the market sends them off at.

Take Barry Hills. This season he's had 7 runners go off at odds-on.
Six of them have won. You don't want to be laying his short-priced
runners at the moment - particularly when either Richard Hills or
Michael Hills are onboard. Their figures for the season suggest
they too are men who can get a short-priced job done - and not just
for the old man. Richard is 4 winners from 4 rides on odds-on shots
this season. Brother Michael is 4 wins from 5 odds-on rides.

Other notables are Brian Meehan who, in partnership with Jamie
Spencer, is 3 winners from 4 odds-on runners. Michael Stoute is 6
from 7. Luca Cumani is 2 from 2.

One trainer who is of interest to layers is John Gosden, the
current leader in the Flat Trainers Championship. He's had 7
runners go off this season at odds-on and only 2 have won. Another
trainer who hasn't been doing the business is Peter Chapple-Hyam.
His 4 odds-on runners have produced just the one winner - and that
when Jamie Spencer took the ride.

Spencer is a jockey who can handle the pressure and get a short-
priced job done for the fav backers out there. Others worthy of
mention this season are Richard Hughes who is 4 from 4 on his odds-
on rides, Royston Ffrench who is 2 from 2 and Neil Callan who is 3
from 3.

Until next time, be lucky.

29th May 2009

Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus...

• Are the right people influencing you?...
  
• Avoid the Knocker...
  
• Lose the After-timer...
  
• Drop the Fabricator...

What type of influences are you surrounded by?...

There's an old saying. It goes something like this: Over time you
become the people you surround yourself with. So what's that got to
do with race betting, Nick? Everything, my friend. The success or
failure of your race betting activities will, to a large extent, be
determined by the type of company you keep.

The kid who hangs out with members of the Chess club and the maths
swots is likely to earn some decent exam grades. The other kid who
knocks about with the slackers and the happy slappers is heading
for a very different future. In the same way, the racing punter who
finds the right kind of crowd to bounce off will do well. The
racing punter who falls under the influence of the wrong crowd is
on a hiding to nothing.

From time to time over the years it's been my misfortune to
surround myself with exactly the wrong sort of punters. Whilst it
has always been my objective to profit from my betting, some of the
decisions I've made regarding the personnel of my 'inner circle'
have detracted from this aim.

These days I think I've got this monkey off my back. I have a very
small inner circle of shrewd racing punters I'm in regular contact
with. As well as good company they provide me with a sounding board
for my ideas and, in addition, they are always happy to share their
own. They take the game as seriously as I do, they put in the hard
yards and follow the game as assiduously as I do myself and, most
importantly, they work from angles that make sense to me.

Its taken time to gather this loosely affiliated group around me.
One or two of their number I've known most of my life. Others I've
met on racecourses and in online forums. One or two I met whilst
working in the betting industry. One or two I've met as a direct
result of writing this column. I consider these people my think
tank, my brains trust and the group I would entrust with finding
the right bet if my life depended on it. 

It wasn't always this way, as I say. In years gone by I've been
surrounded by all manner of bad influence - punters who for one
reason or another effect your betting efforts for the worst over
time. Here are just three types of influence you need to avoid like
the plague if you're serious about boosting your betting
performance to the best it can be:

Avoid the Knocker...

The knocker is easy to spot - he's usually got his backside welded
to a bar stool. The thing about the knocker is his cynicism. Racing
is fixed. The punter cannot win. Nobody can understand the game.
Anybody who says they can or do is a liar. Anybody who, in
mitigation, points to past betting performance is branded a fraud
or a fantasist. Trainers and jockeys are bent. The authorities are
in cahoots with the bookmakers. Bottom line: Anybody who gets
involved betting on horses must have a few slates loose.

Something else about the Knockers... They love it when you lose. In
their minds, every time you lose you underpin their theories. And
let's face it you're going to be picking more losers than winners.
So you're going to be hearing a lot off the Knocker. 'You can't
pick your nose'. 'The horse you backed started at 10 to 1 and it's
just finished at quarter past three'. 'It was pulling a milk cart
on Monday morning.' Hear something enough times... it starts to get
into your head.

Over time you plan to pick sufficient winners to get your nose in
front. But your long term view means nothing to the Knocker. He
doesn't know or care what you're trying to achieve. He just wants
to knock something he doesn't understand. Or maybe something he's
been defeated at earlier in life. Dig deep enough and just under
the skin of your average knocker you find an unfulfilled punter who
just couldn't get to grips with the game - and can't bear the
indignity of you perhaps doing something he couldn't.

Lose the After-timer...

The thing about betting is that in order to be good at it you need
to make sense of events before they happen. This represents a
challenge for everybody who laces up the punting gloves. But, for
some punters, it represents a challenge too far and they opt for
another approach instead - they make sense of races after they've
taken place but present the outcome as consistent with their pre-
race predictions. These punters are known as after-timers.

The After-timer is never wrong. He always gets it right. Not
surprising really when you consider he's picking once the result is
known. And he's always quick to tell you just how right he got it.
Just as the race winner passes the post, there he is, looming at
your elbow like the shadow of death. 'Told you. I said that'd win
it. Nailed on that was.'

What he forgets is that pre-race he nailed his colours to the mast
of half the runners in the field. Ask him where his dollar was
invested and you'll inevitably discover he was only watching. For a
man who never gets it wrong the After-timer can be absurdly
backward when it comes to stepping up and getting a few quid on his
pre-race opinion. Fact is, the After-timer isn't in the slightest
bit interested in betting - whether it be making or losing money.

The After-timer just wants to be right. He just wants to be seen to
be the man with the right opinion, the man who stands above the
fray and almost telepathically reads the myriad signs to come up
with the right answer time after time. It's not about informed
speculation. For the After-timer it's all about vanity and self-
regard. Bottom line: the only things you're going to learn off the
After-timer are the results.

Drop the Fabricator...

Fabricators are harder to spot. Fabricators work on the basis that
they've read something or heard something on the TV that you've not
read or heard - something they can then pass on as a product of
their own knowledge or analysis. And, let's face it, there's so
much information and coverage of racing out there, that nine times
out of ten they're going to get away with it.

Once again, the motivation has much to do with self-regard and
vanity rather than honest exchange of information and analysis
between like-minded punters. The objective is not to inform but to
impress. Bottom line: what the fabricator brings to the supper
table are the dishes from another man's table.

You never know what you're going to get with the Fabricator. He
might be expressing an excellent analysis from the lips of another.
Or he might be expressing his own view. Either way, he's dangerous.
The former can lead you to take the latter to heart.

Pricewise often falls victim to the Fabricator. I've lost count of
the times I've been in a pub, on a racecourse or in a bookie's
where some punter has articulately lifted the Pricewise analysis
from the Racing Post and presented it as his own summary of the
race and the likely outcome. Pricewise has a pretty formidable
record. Punters who present his tips and analysis as their own are
going to enjoy some success and they're going to be seen to pull
off some right royal betting coups now and again. It makes a guy
look good amongst his circle.

But betting isn't about looking good. It's about learning your
sport and finding your own unique angles from which you can profit.
The Knocker and his cynicism, the After-timer and his all-pervading
need to be right and the Fabricator's need to be seen to be smart,
will not help you.

Look around at your inner circle. These are the people who can help
you, take you on and improve you. These are the people who can
provide insight, informed analysis and angles. These are the people
you can bounce ideas off, get feedback from and work in tandem
with. But only if they are the right kind of punters - those who
actually engage with their sport, commit to undertaking the
necessary work and are intent on reaching their own conclusions. 

The Knocker, the After-timer and the Fabricator (and there are
others) only create an environment of smoke, mirrors and deception.
Commit to dropping such people from your punting circle and
surrounding yourself with shrewd minds that can actually help you
develop as a punter. Sooner or later you become the people your
surround yourself with.

Until next time, be lucky.