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28th November 2008
Good afternoon, friends,
- A 25/1 winner that didn't pay out a bean....
- Pinpointing the Hennessey winner....
My 25/1 winner that never was....
Mention the words 'Hennessey Gold Cup' and it's nailed on I'll take you all the way back to 2002 and tell you the story of one of my worst-ever punting experiences.
In the days building up to the that year's renewal of the Hennessey I backed Gingembre - getting £50 on Lavinia Taylor's gelding with Hills at a stand-out 25/1. That 25/1 soon disappeared. I was surprised it had ever been that big. Connections were considering the horse for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, he'd already won the Scottish Grand National at Ayr the previous April and he'd also finished 2nd in the 2000 renewal of the Hennessey to the talented Kings Road.
The horse went off at 16/1 on the day and the race went according to plan. Gingembre ran an absolute cracker, picking up strongly after the last fence and looking all the way like the winner until Be My Royal, running off a featherweight, picked his pocket on the line - beating him by just half a length. I was gutted. I hadn't gone in each-way. I felt like I'd been mugged.
It later transpired that Be My Royal (never the same horse again) had traces of a prohibited substance in its bloodstream. Some years later, following a lengthy investigation, Be My Royal was disqualified and Gingembre was awarded the 2002 Hennessey - but way too late, of course, for punters like me to get paid out on our winning bets. It's the only time I've backed a 25/1 winner and not got paid out a bean - and, yes, I'm still bellyaching about it.
Split the Hennessey field using age and price trends...
Finding this year's Hennessey winner would go some way towards finally dulling the pain of that win that never was. And there are some very strong trends which enable us to split the field and get us some way towards a shortlist we can put under the microscope - age, market forces and recent form. Let's take a look at age trends first.
AGE: Take a look the table below. Runners aged 6 or 7 years old have dominated the Hennessey over the last 10 years - having won 8 out of the last 10 renewals and taken 28 of the 37 places available over the same period of time (75% of places from less than 50% of the runners).
AGE |
Winners |
Places |
Runners |
5yo |
0 |
0 |
3 |
6yo |
3 |
11 |
26 |
7yo |
5 |
9 |
55 |
8yo |
1 |
4 |
40 |
9yo |
1 |
2 |
28 |
10yo |
0 |
1 |
17 |
11+ |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Eight year-olds have produced one winner - that was the by-default win of Gingembre - and a very small proportion of the placed horses. The record of 9 year olds is not great either. Only one horse in double figure age has won in last 40 years.
These figures tell us our focus should be on the younger horses - the Hennessey is generally won by early-career chasers open to much more improvement than exposed and older rivals. I make 8 years-old my cut off point.
MARKET FORCES: 19 of the last 24 Hennessey winners went off in the first four in the betting market. 8 of the last 10 Hennessey winners went off at odds of 10/1 or less.
This tells us we're not looking for a big-priced long shot. Our attention should be focused on horses at the head of the market. As far as the Hennessey is concerned the money talks.
RECENT FORM: This is another good trend to latch onto. The last 12 winners were all placed 1st or 2nd last time out. 8 of 10 winners won last time out and all 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out.
WEIGHT: In recent renewals of the Hennessey weight hasn't appeared to be the issue it once was as the table below illustrates.
WEIGHT |
Winners |
Placed |
Runners |
11-0 or more |
4 |
6 |
46 |
10-13 or less |
6 |
21 |
127 |
Up until Trabolgan's win 3 years ago only one horse in 21 years had carried over 11 stone to victory. But the last 3 winners all carried big burdens to victory - State of Play and Trabolgan on decent ground and Denman's very impressive victory last year on stamina-sapping ground.
Right now the state of the ground is good to soft. However, should it deteriorate between now and race time then weight may well become a factor. Not every horse has the lungs and legs of a Denman and on softish ground it will pay to bear in mind horses carrying lighter weights.
Striking lines through the trend's qualifiers....
Striking a line through the older (9+) and the unfancied horses (12/1 or less) leaves us with a manageable shortlist we can subject to more intense scrutiny: Albertas Run (11-9), Big Bucks (11-7), Air Force One (11-7), Oedipe (11-0), Character Building (10-6) and Island Flyer (10-0).
It's at this point that things boil down to subjective opinion. And, as you know, when it comes to opinions every man and his dog has one. What follow are my own opinions. I urge you to take a look at each horse
yourself and come to your own conclusions - after all, finding the winner yourself is half the fun of race-punting.
I'm prepared to scratch Oedipe without any further consideration because Nicky Henderson's stable jockey, Barry Geraghty, is not onboard. He's chosen to go to Newcastle instead to ride the strongly fancied Punjabi in
the Fighting Fifth Hurdle.
I'm also happy to scratch Albertas Run. Jonjo O'Neill's charge won the G1 Royal and Sun Alliance chase at the festival in March - the same race Trabolgan and Denman won before taking the Hennessey the following season. But O'Neill's yard is not in the best of form right now - and I'd rather be on something coming from a yard where the horses are bouncing.
Big Bucks is only 5 years old, he's carrying a fair old weight and he's also coming into the race without a prep run. Okay... Big Bucks won first time out last year but that was in a 4 runner race with only one other live contender to run against. And, for my money, the horse is better in a smaller field than he'll face tomorrow. He's had 13 runs in fields with 12 or more runners and won only twice. His previous record also suggests he does most of his best work after Christmas.
Where the Pullen money will be on Saturday....
There's quite a buzz for the Tom George's Island Flyer. But what I don't like about the horse in a field this size is its make-all style. There's bound to be a few taking it on for the lead early on and pressing it as
the race unfolds. The horse is the most inexperienced of the leading contenders. Will its jumping hold up under such intense pressure at a red hot pace? Will being taken on for the lead mean the horse takes too much out of itself? Island Flyer had a tough race last time out and I think tomorrow will prove a step too far a tad too soon.
Which leaves me with the two I'll be backing - Air Force One and Character Building.
Air Force One is expected to come on from what was a cracking seasonal reappearance at Ascot. He can be backed at a best priced 6/1 with the firms and at 7.2 on the exchanges.
Character Building finished third in this race last year and I expect him to improve for another year of maturing under is belt. Stamina is proven, he likes the course and he'll appreciate the cut underfoot.
Though he's only had a blow over hurdles after being off the track with injury, he came through that race very well. This race is his stated target and when you consider Character Building went into last year's Hennessey without a prep run, we can expect him to be tuned up and ready. Right now he's a best priced 7/1 shot with the firms and 8.8 on the exchanges.
You'll find the latest odds right here:
http://odds.sportsxtra.co.uk/horse-racing/saturday/newbury
Now bring it on!
Until next time, be lucky.
21st November 2008
Good afternoon, friends,
- The jockey... friend or foe?
- In praise of spirit, enterprise and preparation...
- I'm all ears for this retired rider...
Next time you're about to knock the jock...
Remember this... It ain't easy being a jockey. Not only do they risk life and limb - accepting all manner of broken bone and worse as mere part of the game - but they also get a pretty bum rap a lot of the time.
Think about it. We've all been in the bookies or on the course when some half-cut punter's bet has gone for a burton. Who's always the first and foremost focal point for his abuse? Who gets it in the neck? Who is always to blame? That's right. The poor old jock. Our punter has never even been on the back of a Blackpool donkey. But when that bet goes down, he's shouting and bawling about the jockey's ride like he was born in the saddle.
Of course, some of the jocks don't help themselves or their counterparts in the weighing room. Missing the break, going off like an express train, getting boxed in, failing to ride out a finish, dropping the hands, getting pegged on the line... none of it goes down too well with the punter.
And then you've got the bad boys... those who break the rules and work in cahoots with exchange layers - sullying the sport in the eyes of enthusiasts and detractors alike. There are times when it might seem like the workaday jock is at the root of all that goes wrong in the sport!
Fact is jockeys are a real easy target. Too often it gets forgotten that whilst there might be a few bad lads plying their trade there are many more who are straight as an arrow and always trying.
And too often it gets forgotten that whilst sometimes a jock can get it wrong on a horse, there are times when his spirit, enterprise and preparation win the day - for owner, trainer and punter alike. At those moments... that jock can feel like your best pal.
In praise of spirit, enterprise and preparation...
Jason McKeown would have certainly felt like your best china if you'd backed Hoopy in the 3m1f handicap chase at Cheltenham last Friday. He'd lost his whip when his mount blundered at the first ditch. Approaching the third last, McKeown had the cool and the presence of mind to persuade the rider on a fading King Harald to donate his whip to the cause. Given a couple of cracks on the backside Hoopy got competitive, stayed on strongly and took the spoils at 15/2.
McKeown landed himself a reprimand in the stewards' room and a two-day ban for improper riding. But he made a lot of friends too. Those punters weighed-in by the bookies to the tune of 15/2 were in the bar toasting the lad for possessing the wit and the gumption to do what it took to get his horse home first. Forget the tweed-jacket brigade - punters want to see their jockeys do what it takes to win.
Then there was Davy Russell on Dix Villez in the Cross Country race. At one point he appeared to cut a corner on the course. I must admit I was the first one off the sofa and throwing my arms up in the air. 'He's cut a corner! What the *&%$"! hell's going on? They'll have to have an inquiry into that!' Dix Villez made good on his advantage and was first home. Sure enough the steward's inquiry was called.
Davy Russell knew exactly what he was doing...
On the walk back to the winner's enclosure, being interviewed by ATR, Russell seemed spectacularly unperturbed. It turned out that prior to the race he'd spoken to the course officials, outlined his intended action, established he wasn't cutting a corner and confirmed he was well within his rights to take the course he took. In other words the guy had prepared to succeed - and in so doing he'd done his rivals up like the proverbial kippers.
Apparently, Russell likes the cross country chases and he obviously likes to get an edge over the competition. As a punter, that's exactly the type of jockey you want on your side - wide awake, switched on, full of enterprise and going out of his way to find the angle that gets the horse carrying your hard-earned cash home ahead of the field.
Just in case you're interested Dix Villez was returned at 28/1 - and the price before the off was plenty bigger on the exchanges. If you were on Dix Villez.... I bet you a pound to a penny Davy Russell is on your Xmas card list. And if he isn't then he should be!
A smart jock is worth his weight in gold to a punter - and when a jock demonstrates those smarts it's as well to make a mental note. Next time you might be the punter cashing in as a result.
Its not just current jockeys we should pay attention to either. A smart ex-jockey can be just as valuable out of the saddle as he was in it.
'Who hath ears to hear, let him hear...'
I doubt punting was the topic when those words were first uttered. But disciples of racing would do well to open their ears to ex-jockey, Mick Fitzgerald. He's now working as part of the At-the-Races team and on Monday he was covering the jumps fixture at Leicester.
And he's a man worth listening to. Twenty years riding, a winner of numerous big races including the Grand National, leading rider at the Cheltenham festival two-years running, long-time stable jockey for top jumps trainer, Nicky Henderson... he knows a thing or two about the game. And 5 minutes listening to him can give you some real insight and offer some crucial clues to finding winners.
Talking about the ground at Leicester he referred to it as having a unique and permanent sticky quality. He compared the track to Chepstow insomuch as horses either take to it or they don't. Later on in the coverage he said it was his opinion you could almost blindly back horses which have shown some decent form at Leicester previously. Mujamead (16/1), Desert Secrets (16/1) and Norman the Great (9/4) - all with decent previous form at Leicester - won their respective races on Monday afternoon.
Fitzgerald also came clean and admitted he'd never really liked riding at Leicester - referring to the fences on the chase course as 'stiff' and 'trappy'.
'Who hath ears to hear, let him hear'... In less than 100 words he's given us two angles for finding winners and avoiding losers at Leicester in future. Keep on your side horses that have already shown they have a liking for the track. In chases avoid horses with black marks against their jumping - stiff, trappy fences are likely to catch dodgy jumpers out.
And one final thing, Mick reckons Venetia Williams is one trainer who is able to prepare her string to perform at the East Midlands track. Her 5-year record bears this view out. Over that time she's had 31 runners in chases and ten winners at a strike rate of 32%. Whenever she sends a chaser to Leicester it is worth taking a close look.
Until next time, be lucky.
14th November 2008
Good afternoon, friends,
- Insist on 100% proof when it comes to unknown tipsters...
- Strong trends point the way in tomorrow's Paddy Power Gold
Cup...
- Know how you stand where trip and ground are concerned...
'Nick, can I take this tipster at face value?'
That's probably the most-frequently-asked question in my HRF
postbag - bar none.
Some tipster comes along promising the Earth, tooting his horn
about an amazing track-record of success and insisting that any
punter worth his salt needs to pull on his dancing boots and join
in the party.
Take this recent example: HRF reader, CF, gets a letter from a
tipster based in London. The tipster claims to have hit 114 winners
from 156 selections over the last 12 months - a strike rate of just
over 73%. And that's some strike rate on the horses - believe me,
folks. Try hitting a 73% strike rate on the football - and there's
only 3 possible outcomes on a football game. You see what I mean?
Our tipster works off a staking plan - bets are advised at
recommended stakes of 1 to 6 points. To a £50 per point stake the
tipster claims to have produced a net profit for subscribers of £71,400 over the year.
That's some performance - assuming its true! No wonder the national
pressmen have taken an interest! The tipster's letter claims his
service has been positively reviewed in the Daily Express, Sunday
Mirror, News of the World and the now defunct Sportsman.
The tipster wants our HRF reader to join in the fun. And here's the
good news! He only wants our pal to part with the best part of £400 for the privilege! So can the tipster be trusted? Can we take what
he says at face value? Is he a rip-off merchant? Or is he really
what he says he is - a guy who can unlock tens of thousands of
pounds worth of betting profits over a 12 month period?
Two simple moves to make for peace of mind...
Okay... let's quit fretting for a moment. Can we trust this tipster
and what he says? There are two simple moves we can make to get the
definitive answer to our question (and these moves will work their
magic for any unknown tipster who approaches you or who you happen
across)....
-
Ask the tipster where he 'proofs' his tips. Plenty of places
offer proofing services to tipsters - the Racing Post and Racing
Index to name but two. What happens is tipsters send their
selections (before they run) to the proofing service. This way
their true results are on record and any claims they make can then
be verified by potential clients. Unknown tipsters who don't proof
their tips should be left alone. They are either too lazy to proof
- or they have some other reason they don't want details of their
true performance on record.
-
When a tipster mentions press attention or something similar
- request proof of it. Any business or service will be happy to
provide links to or photostats of such high praise. Why wouldn't
they? I would - wouldn't you? Tipsters who lay claim to such
coverage and praise but can't or won't provide the evidence lack
any credibility whatsoever. Don't get involved with them.
If a tipster stands up to these two tests then he's worthy of
further consideration. If not, he isn't - end of.
Strong trends in the Paddy Power Gold Cup...
The jumps season really comes to life now with the three-day Open
meeting at Cheltenham getting underway today.
The feature race of the weekend is Saturday's 20-runner Paddy Power
Gold Cup chase, run over the extended two and a half miles. And
there are some pretty strong underlying trends to point us in the
direction of likely winners.
-
8 out of the last 10 winners of the race carried 11-3 or less
to victory. It took two pretty classy animals - Our Vic and Cyfor
Malta - to buck this trend. The likelihood is that a big weight
will prove too big a handicap on the testing Cheltenham track and
softish ground.
-
8 out of the last 10 winners were aged between 6 and 8 years
old with not a single winner at 5 or a single winner over 9 years
of age during the period. Ideally we're looking for a younger
chaser - most likely a progressive 2nd or 3rd season chaser.
Trip and ground considerations are crucial...
The two and a half mile trip is a specialist distance for chasers -
suiting those horses which aren't quick enough to produce their
best at 2 miles or strong enough to compete at the top levels over
marathon trips. It will pay to bear that in mind.
It will also pay you to keep a weather-eye on the going. As I write
the going is soft - good to soft in places. Though Cheltenham takes
rain very well, the conditions underfoot are likely to be
demanding. They ultimately finished strung out and weary in the
first this afternoon (won by Hoopy) - which underpins the view that
racing this weekend will be testing.
Right now there's a drying wind blowing across the course and
there's not much in the way of rain forecast over the next 24
hours. Keep your eye out for official going changes between now and
the big race.
Given the above analysis, Silverburn is a definite contender but
makes little appeal at 7/2. For me, Imperial Commander needs to
find a bit on the formbook. Bible Lord will not likely appreciate
the soft going. Maljimar probably wants the ground to dry out a bit
from where it's at right now - but would be a serious contender if
it did. And part of me hopes it does because I've had a nibble on
the horse at reasonable prices on the exchanges.
But that's enough of my woes. Given how things stand right NOW,
Don't Push It and Barbers Shop look well suited.
And if you're looking for one at a big price to give you a run for
your money then take a close look at Sky's the Limit.
Ground and trip are just right for Edward O'Grady's runner - and
it's already had an early-season pipe-opener unlike many in
tomorrow's race. If he's going to come good and deliver on his
early-career promise - this is a real opportunity to do so.
Given the conditions, Sky's the Limit's an each-way proposition at
a stand-out 33/1 with William Hill. Snap a bit of that up. But move
quick before it disappears. I don't think it will last long!
If you're having a bet on tomorrow's big race, you'll find the best
odds here:
http://odds.sportsxtra.co.uk/horse-racing/saturday/cheltenham/2-35
November 7th 2008
Good afternoon, friends,
- Good enough but no cigar... Just yet...
- Getting a win into perspective...
- Where the real proving gets done...
The champ is back but just hold those horses
There is nothing in racing - and I mean nothing - that compares with watching a top quality chaser go about its business over the fences. And that's exactly what we got at Down Royal on Saturday with the much-awaited reappearance of Kauto Star in the Grade 1 Champion Chase run over 3 miles.
He jumped well, saw the race out impressively on the soft ground without being extended and he beat the 5-runner field by a reasonable enough margin - Light On The Broom 11 lengths back in 2nd and Knight Legend a further 11 lengths back in 3rd. The Listener ran no kind of a race in 4th - beaten by a mile. Turpin Green got rid of his jockey three from home.
On any given day a horse can do no more than beat the field put in front of it. So figuring out what Kauto Star actually beat on Saturday can give us some valuable perspective. Perspective is a useful tool - it offers a critical yardstick against which press attention, hyperbole and market opinion can be measured. And it gives us something else - a concrete footing on which to base our judgements.
So what do we know of the vanquished?
Both Knight Legend and The Listener are doubtful stayers. In a small field this wouldn't normally be a problem - small fields generally mean a slower early pace. So it was slightly bewildering to watch both horses rob themselves of chances by running one another into the ground. Having set such a frantic pace neither horse was ever going to be competitive during the final stages. Just as Kauto Star's stamina reserves could be expected to kick in - their's would be giving out.
Turpin Green ran soundly enough until rider and horse parted company. No-one can say for sure where the horse would have finished had it completed.
All we do know is that three fences from Turpin Green's exit from the race meant Kauto Star only had to stand up and account for Light On The Broom.
And what can we say of him?
He's a 12 year-old veteran and went into Saturday's race off a losing streak of 26 runs stretching all the way back to May 2005 when he won a handicap at Down Royal. Running off a mark of 135 - compared to Kauto Star's rating of 179 - the horse had been on the go in recent months. Saturday's race was its 6th since June.
We're talking journeyman fighter here, folks. In Grade 1 events this guy is the pug the real prospects are expected to whip like a dog. Light On The Broom was there for a bit of prize money - not as a prospect. He might not win many races - but he can still pick up prize money for connections. He's won them almost £100,000 over fences - and only 20% of that is in races he's won.
Saturday's race paid over £3000+ for 4th place and £9000+ for 3rd. You can see the trainer's thinking: if he stands up all the way round (and the horse doesn't fall much) there's a strong chance of a payout. Jumpers fall, pull-up, unseat, breakdown and run badly.... My man only needs one to drop out or finish behind him.
And fair play to connections. The plan paid off again - better than they expected I'll bet. 2nd place and just under £20,000 to keep them warm on the way home. The handicapper has since raised Light On The Broom to 144 in the ratings - proof, should the connections of the horse need any, that every silver lining has a cloud.
So what does this tell us?
For a horse like Light On The Broom to finish only 11 lengths behind Kauto Star suggests he showed massive improvement and ran an absolute barnstormer - not likely given his veteran status and journeyman profile. The fact is that the underlying quality of Kauto Star's win isn't as strong as the performance might have appeared visually. Kauto Star did what he had to. There's more to come. But we still don't know how much.
Saturday's race tells us that Kauto Star is fit, able and well-capable of winning substandard G1 races. It doesn't give us any solid indications about the horse's enduring credentials at the very highest level. It doesn't confirm that the horse will dominate the big races as it was doing last season until defeats to Denman at Cheltenham and Our Vic at Aintree, where Kauto Star tired really badly (it was his 6th race of the season) sparked talk of decline.
What exactly did those races at the back end of a busy season take out of the horse? He raced 6 times last season - was he slightly overused? Did the effort just remove the shine? Or has it blunted the edge for good? Was he under the weather? Was it just a blip? Can he retain his peak - or he dipped for good? Are rumours of decline well-founded or hopelessly premature?
These are the questions which have been raised. But we won't get the answers until the horse is pitched into the heat of battle, eyeball to eyeball, with the caliber of horses we can expect to be serious players in Grade 1 chases over trips around 3-miles this season.
We're not talking here about Light On The Broom, Knight Legend and The Listener. We're talking instead horses like 9 year-old War of Attrition who appears to be back on the trail. Or the 8 year-olds, Denman and Exotic Dancer. And the younger 7 year-old animals with plenty of scope for progression and improvement, Voy Por Ustedes, Tidal Bay, Neptune Collenges and Albertas Run.
Kauto Star did exactly what was required on Saturday. But that will not be sufficient to dominate horses of this quality. And it's only when he comes up against this class of opponents, and push really does come to shove, that we'll we know for sure what reserves remain in Kauto Star's tank. It's only then we'll know for sure whether or not the blade has been truly resharpened. The real proving is still to come.
And that's the great thing about being poised at the outset of a new jumps season - we've still got it all in front of us.
Until next time, be lucky.
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