Directory of Past issues - November 2011

2nd November - The best approach to big race betting I know of...

9th November - The Winning Profiles are on a roll...

16th November - The stats lead directly to winners and profits...

23rd November - Profit angles on the Wolverhampton all-weather...

30th November - How to play a yard with the knack at Southwell...

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Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus....

• When the plan comes together....
• Looking backwards to find future winners....
• The central plank in my approach to big-race betting....
• This season's big handicaps over the jumps....
• Get onboard for next weekend's two big races....

When the plan comes together....

Forgive me if I indulge myself a little today.... I'm in very good
spirits....

I don't toot my own horn very often.... but there's a time and a
place for everything.... and, given the events of the last few days,
I reckon I'm just about justified in patting myself on the back in
public this afternoon....

• On Saturday WEIRD AL earned me a fine payout when winning the
  Charlie Hall Chase - looking like a very good prospect for the good
  prizes this season in the process - at Wetherby. The win was made
  all the sweeter by the fact that the vast majority of the major
  pundits overlooked him completely. In most of the analysis of
  the race I read he barely merited a mention. That explains why I was
  able to get on him at a huge 14/1 on Friday. And he couldn't have
  rewarded the faith with a better run. Sent off at 7/1 he travelled
  well all the way round and lowered Time For Rupert's flag on the run
  in - with the rest a distance behind.

• Yesterday I latched on to MEDERMIT for the Haldon Gold Cup at
  Exeter - taking the early-morning 9/2 about the horse. He was up
  against top horses in Captain Chris and Ghizao but positive features
  in his past record, balanced against negative aspects in their
  record, made him the pick (I also backed 16/1 shot Oiseau De Nuit
  who ran a blinder in 3rd and might have gone closer had he not lost
  his 7lb claimer in the hours leading up to the race). Sent off at
  4/1 Medermit didn't disappoint. Okay, Captain Chris coming down at
  the last was a stroke of luck. He was picking up well at the time.
  But to win chases you have to stand up. Medermit did and earned me a
  second nice return in the space of a few days.

To be scrupulously honest I can't take all the credit. These horses
didn't simply pop into my mind like a gift from the Gods. They were
not the result of any observations I'd made in previous races. Nor
were they the product of traditional form study. And they certainly
weren't recommendations from some exorbitantly-priced tipping
service.

No... the fact I was on these horses at all... the fact that I was
alerted to their respective chances in the first place... has
nothing whatsoever to do with me and everything to do with the
lessons of history....

Allow me to explain.... 

Looking backwards to find future winners....

It's a fact that big races - Group races on the flat, Grade races
over the jumps and the big handicaps in both codes - tend to be won,
year-on-year by horses that conform to the larger  part of a common
statistical make-up. They share a similar set of attributes. They
boast common characteristics. They have achieved similar things on
the race track. They have met specific standards.  In other words,
they have all the right credentials.

Put together these commonalities represent a blueprint - a profile
of what it takes to win the specific race under review. I call it
the Winning Profile.

By identifying what the Winning Profile of a specific race consists
of you are effectively armed with a sharp cutting-edge tool that can
inform your bets in future renewals of the same race. Once you know
what it has taken to win a race in the past you know a great deal
more about what to look for in the horses set to contest a future
renewal.

Horses which closely match the profile of previous winners can be
considered 'live' contenders. Whereas those horses which fail to
meet the necessary standards and requirements can be safely
discounted as potential bets - those horses don't have the right 
profile.

When I came to look at the Charlie Hall Chase on Friday, for
example, and applied the Winning Profile I'd constructed - a process
that involves a comprehensive statistical review of past renewals -
it was immediately noticeable that Weird Al represented a value bet
in the race at 14/1.

My statistical analysis had identified a dozen key commonalities
generally shared by past winners of the race. Weird Al fell down on
just one of those key criteria - he'd raced only 6 times over fences
whereas all the past 10 winners had raced at least 8 times over the
bigger obstacles. Given that he passed every other statistical test
on the Profile I was prepared to give him some wiggle room on that
failure - and my subjectivity was rewarded at 3.20 on Saturday
afternoon.

The central plank in my approach to big-race betting....

Over the last few months - after a lot of background work sorting
data, setting up databases and refining my method - the Winning
Profile has become the central plank in my approach to betting the
big races in both codes.

Three years ago my default approach to the big races was to get my
head stuck into the form book for hours on end... seeking to assess
each individual runner entered into a race... objectively measuring
its preferences against the conditions and circumstances it was
likely to meet with on race day. On that basis, all factors weighed
against one another, I'd reach some conclusion about which horse or
horses were most favoured....

The approach was long on time and effort... it was a real slog...
and I got to figuring that there must be quicker ways of making the
game pay... shortcuts I could adopt... stepping stones I could use
to get from A to B a damn sight faster than I was managing with the 
head-down and hit-the-formbook approach...

And so I started looking... exploring different avenues... trying
different methods... testing different approaches... and the Winning
Profile is the product of that research and development process - a
statistical approach to finding the winners of big races that
is quick, clean and effective and based on cold, hard and rational
facts.

If you subscribe to my Racing Angles service - the sister-service to
HRF - then you'll be familiar now with my Winning Profiles, what
they consist of, how they work and the results they can achieve -
two winners in 4 days to get the jumps season off with a bang, for
example.

The Winning Profile approach is now the central theme of the Racing
Angles service. It is not an oracle by any means. The Winning
Profile doesn't always lead directly to a winner - though sometimes
it does. Rather the Winning Profile is a sharp-edged field-splitting
tool that enables the user to quickly and effectively reduce a big
field to just a few runners that measure-up closest to the blueprint
laid down by the historic statistical record.

This season's big handicaps over the jumps....

Fact is you don't have to subscribe to Racing Angles - a year-round
service - to take advantage of the Winning Profile method of
attack....

This jumps season I'm running a standalone service - providing
Winning Profiles for 20 of the big handicaps set to be run over
hurdles and fences between now and next spring... starting with the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the Greatwood Handicap
Hurdle at Cheltenham next weekend....

If you subscribed to my Cheltenham Festival Winning Profiles service
earlier this year - when we found a few winners, a few placed horses
at decent prices, and endured more than our fair share of very near
misses - then you'll know how it works... it's a two-step process...

• Step 1 - I send you my new manual containing comprehensive
  Winning Profiles for all 20 of the races I'm covering - outlining
  all the key statistical indicators which enable you to make sense of
  the races and the chances of the likely runners days, weeks and even
  months before the races are run (a great edge in the markets). 

• Step 2 - In case you don't want to do the donkey work yourself
  I'll contact you in the days running up to each of the races having
  applied all elements of the profile to all the runners and having
  compiled a shortlist of the horses which look like this year's
  'live' contenders - along with advice about their preferred
  conditions and circumstances, market analysis and any other
  considerations you'll need to bear in mind.

Put simply: being on the Winning Profile service means you can
attack these big handicap races with an approach nobody else is
using - an approach based on cold, hard data that nobody else is
getting access to. And that's a real edge when it comes to ante-post
or day-of-race betting.

Get onboard for next weekend's two big races....

The manual containing the Winning Profiles for 20 of this year's
biggest handicaps over hurdles and fences is now back from the
printer.... And it goes on sale today....

With just over a week to go to the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the
Greatwood Handicap Hurdle you'll need to act quickly to ensure you
get hold of the Winning Profiles for those races - and 18 more - in
good time.

As a valued HRF reader you get to put my Winning Profiles to the
test - risk-free. If you're not satisfied with my work my publisher
will give you a 100% refund - no questions asked and no hard
feelings (just let us know by Christmas).

And as an HRF reader, if you decide to get onboard, you can also
take advantage of a 15% discount on the cover price.

I've run out of space and talked myself out this week... but if you
want to know more about the Winning Profiles themselves... our risk-
free guarantee... and how to get on the Winning Profiles service at
a discounted rate simply click here where you'll find comprehensive
details...

www.shopatoxonpress.com/NH57/

I very much hope you'll decide to get onboard with the Winning
Profiles service this winter and I can't wait to get the service
rolling in just a few days time.

Until next time, be lucky.

9th November 2011

Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus....

• The 'Winning Profiles' are on a roll....
• No single yard dominates....
• Two stats offer strong steers in the Paddy Power....
• Want more detailed intelligence?

The Winning Profiles are on a roll....

My Winning Profiles are on a hell of a roll at the moment...

A week last Saturday the Winning Profile for the Charlie Hall Chase
flagged up subsequent 7/1 winner, Weird Al, for my Racing Angles
readers... when he could still be got at 14s...

Three days later the Winning Profile for the Haldon Gold Cup steered
readers toward Medermit who duly won at 4/1 having been advised at
9/2...

On Friday afternoon I advised readers that the Winning Profile for
the November Handicap at Doncaster highlighted 12/1 shot Zuider Zee
as a 'live contender'. He won on Saturday afternoon having been sent
off at 8s. 

Meanus Dandy almost made it a double on the afternoon. Advised - on
the basis of the Winning Profile - as a live each-way shot in the
Badger Ales Trophy he finished 2nd (desperately unlucky not to win)
having traded as big as 12s in the pre-race markets.

Is it any wonder I can't wait for another opportunity to deploy the
potent Winning Profile method this weekend - on the field for the
Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham?

No single yard has dominates....

The Paddy Power Gold Cup is an early-season punting heat that marks
the start of the jump season proper for plenty of racing bettors.

It's a Grade 3 handicap chase open to horses aged 4 and older. The
race is run on Cheltenham's left-handed 'Old' course in mid-November
over the 21f trip - taking in a total of 15 fences. 

The historical record highlights that this is a race Martin Pipe
literally farmed over the years - winning it 8 times. Supporting
punters obviously benefitted from his prolific record - so too did
jockey A P McCoy who rode 3 of those winners (he also rode Exotic
Dancer to victory in the 2006 renewal for different connections).

David Pipe built on Pond House's strong record in the race -
saddling Vodka Bleu into 2nd place in 2006. But in recent times no
one yard has managed to dominate.

Nigel Twiston-Davies - who always hits the ground running in the
early stages of the jumps season - has as good a recent record as
anybody - winning the race with Imperial Commander in 2008 and again
with Little Josh in 2010. In addition his Knowhere finished 3rd in
2007 and Ballyfitz was 4th in 2009.

It's been a case of close but no cigar for Nicky Henderson's runners
in recent times. Barbers Shop was 2nd in 2008, Long Run was 3rd in
2010, Fondmort ran into 4th in 2005 and the huge Mad Max was 4th in
2010.

Two stats offer strong steers in the Paddy Power....

Two strong key stats can help steer punters towards the right kind
of horses for betting purposes in this year's renewal of the Paddy
Power Gold Cup....

• Key Stat 1 - 11 of the 12 horses which won or finished 2nd in
  one of the last 6 renewals of this race had raced less than 10 times
  over fences (see table below). The 48 runners who went into one of
  the last 6 renewals of the Paddy Power Gold Cup with more chasing
  experience produced just a single runner-up performance. The lightly
  raced chasers - the horses most open to improvement and progression
  - are the ones on which to focus.

• Key Stat 2 - 11 of the 12 horses which won or finished 2nd in
  one of the last 6 renewals of the Paddy Power Gold Cup were aged 6-
  to 8-years-old (see table below). That's the age-band to pay most
  attention to this year.

Just those two stats will go a long way toward helping you sort the
'live' contenders from the most-likely 'also rans' in Saturday's
Paddy Power Gold Cup field at Cheltenham.... But the fact is there
are quite a few more 'key' stats that are really useful for punters
who want to 'zero-in' on the best bets in the race....

Want more detailed intelligence?

....Unfortunately, I'm not at liberty to reveal that information in
its entirety here.

One, because I simply don't have the space to relate all the detail.

Two, because it would be unfair to those punters who've subscribed
to my standalone Winning Profiles service for the National Hunt
Season.... for which I've produced detailed and comprehensive
Winning Profiles for 20 of the big handicaps set to be run over
hurdles and fences between now and next spring...

We get the ball rolling with the Paddy Power Gold Cup on Saturday
(swiftly followed by the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle - also run at
Cheltenham - on Sunday).... 

I'll be writing to service-subscribers on Friday afternoon to
highlight the best picks in both races based on the specific Winning
Profiles.

Not only will be naming names - I'll also be highlighting everything
you need to know and all the considerations you need to make about
the horses that look most like 'live' contenders in each race. And
it wouldn't be fair to pre-empt that reporting process here.

But it's not too late to get your hands on the detailed Winning
Profile for the Paddy Power Gold Cup or the Greatwood Handicap
Hurdle this weekend - and 18 other top jumps handicap races.

We still have a few places up for grabs on the service. Sign-up
today and you'll get....

• A spiral-bound 108-page report - Winning Race Profiles -
  National Hunt season 2011/12: Your Essential Betting Portfolio -
  which contains comprehensive Winning Profiles for 20 of the top
  handicaps over jumps and hurdles this season...

• An electronic version downloadable immediately - in PDF
  format, so you can get stuck into the Winning Profiles and get to
  work on the races straight away...

• Pre-race emails highlighting the runners that best fit the
  Winning Profile - plus information on their preferred conditions and
  circumstances, market-intelligence and any other issues you need to
  be aware of in the build-up to the race.

My exclusive betting guide - sent during the week of the race -
gives you a three-step betting plan for each of the 20 races....
 
- The best betting option according to the Winning Profiles....
- The best alternative - including advice for layers....
- The big price Dark Horse - an each-way gem that has snuck under
the radar of the bookies....

Assess my work risk-free... and at a discount....

If you want to check the service out... to assess the quality of my
work... or just to make sure the service is exactly what you're
looking for.... then you can do so completely risk-free....

My publisher is offering a cast-iron money back guarantee:  if you
sign up and you're not satisfied with my work or the service then
just let him know and he'll immediately refund your subscription in
full and with no questions asked and no hard feelings.... I wouldn't
have it any other way....

Personally, judging from the feedback I've received so far from the
readers who have seen the manual, I think you're going to like what
you see. But, just in case you don't, our guarantee makes sure
you're covered....

What's more, as a valued Horse Racing Focus reader, you can sign up
and get on-board for the service - running from now until next
spring - right now at a 15% discount...

www.shopatoxonpress.com/NH57/

Once again I'm all out of space... but if you want to know more
about the service... more about the Winning Profiles.... more about
the 15% discount....  or more about the cast-iron money-back
guarantee... then just click right here where you'll find
comprehensive details....

www.shopatoxonpress.com/NH57/

I very much hope you'll want to join us for this weekend. I'll be
hoping the Winning Profiles can maintain the good run and help us to
get some early points on the service scoreboard.

Until next time, be lucky.

Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus....

• Stats - a rich source of information and direction....
• The relationship between breed and trip over fences....
• When the stats do lead directly to winners and profits....

Stats - a rich source of information and direction....

Statistical analysis doesn't always lead me directly to specific or
individual bets. It's not always a case of the numbers pointing to
particular horses.

Sometimes a statistical analysis is more about gathering information
and gaining an insight - hopefully one that the rest of the market
(or at least the larger portion of it) is unaware of - the kind of
information that underpins a line of thinking as opposed to nforming
individual bets.

Other times a statistical analysis is more a case of finding
foundation and discovering the supporting facts behind things you
already 'know' or are vaguely aware of - but which you hadn't
previously possessed concrete evidence for.

And on other occasions the stats can help provide narrative to the
racing - describing the topography... illuminating the undercurrents
that drive the sport... shedding light on the underlying patterns,
trends and contextual elements that shape what we see and what we
sometimes struggle to make sense of or understand...

I must admit to being a bit of a speculator when it comes to
statistical analysis. I don't always set out knowing much about what
I expect to find. I pick a theme... ask questions... and crunch the
numbers. I'm not invested in a specific outcome. I'm happy to
take whatever insights and information come my way. And I don't
worry too much about drawing a blank either.... not every
panhandling session can succeed in delivering gold... but the
process is never anything short of informative.

Back at the end of last month I focused this column on the subject
of Grade 1 chases and the most common features of the horses that
won chase events of that standard over the last decade... and I know
some of you are using those stats to attack the big chases this
season...

I've been looking at related stats over the last week in an effort
to try and understand a little more about the horses that win the
bigger races over fences... how... and why... and, in the spirit of
sharing, I outline some of my findings below.

The relationship between breed and trip over fences....

I was primarily interested in finding out whether or not there
exists a relationship between where a horse was bred and the trip at
which it is most likely to prosper over fences. Specifically, do
horses bred in one country have an advantage over horses bred in
another - depending on the speed/stamina requirements demanded by
chase races over specific distances?

For the purposes of the analysis I took a look at every Class 1 and
Class 2 chase race run in Great Britain since the beginning of
2000... and I split the analysis to focus specifically on chases run
over the following trips:

• 16-18 furlongs (2m to 2m2f)
• 20-22 furlongs (2m4f to 2m6f)
• 24-26 furlongs (3m to 3m2f)
• 28 furlongs+  (3m4f+)

The results are informative. They don't lead to specific bets. But
they do provide the basis for lines of thinking it might pay to
adopt when dealing with decent chase races at specific distances.

For example, over the last decade there have been 395 Class 1 and
Class 2 chases run in GB over trips between 16f and 18f. Take a look
at the table below where the winners of these races are recorded on
the basis of where they were bred...

It's clear that the French-bred horses win most of the best chases
over the shorter distances. Combine the French- and the Irish-bred
horses and that accounts for almost 75% of the winners at those
trips. The stats don't point to any one horse in any specific race -
but they do highlight a trend that is worth bearing in mind: the
French-bred runners have been dominant in chases over shorter
distances over the last ten years.

The picture changes when we step up in trip to the middle-distance
races. Over the last 10 years we've seen 543 Class 1 or Class 2
chases run in GB over trips between 20 and 22f. Here's how the
winners of those events break down by breed:

Once again the French- and the Irish-bred horses account for almost
three-quarters of the winners between them - with the British-bred
runners lagging behind again. But this time - with the step-up in
trip - it is the Irish runners which have been most dominant at
these trips over the last 10 years.

That trend towards Irish-dominance strengthens when we step up in
trip again to Class 1 and Class 2 chases run over trips of 3m to
3m2f over the last decade. There have been 583 such races during
that period. The breakdown of winners by breed appears in the table
below.

More than half the winners of high-class chase at this trip have
their origins across the Irish-sea. The French-breds can't compete
quite so well with the Irish horses at trips where stamina becomes a
real issue. And, whilst the French-breds have been dominant over
British-bred horses at trips shy of 3 miles, the British horses can
hold their own at the 24-26f trips and produce almost as many wins
as their French counterparts. 

At the longest trips of all (those at 28f+) we don't see quite so
many races - just 190 in the last decade or so but the results are
equally informative as they appear in the table below:

Once again the Irish-bred runners dominate - winning more than half
of the good races at these kinds of trip over the last decade. The
French- and the British-bred horses performed so similarly over the
period neither country's horses can be said to be dominant over the
other.

Okay, none of these stats will point you directly at a winner in
tomorrow morning's paper. But they do provide a theme - a commentary
on where top-quality chase winners emerge from.... a rational basis
on which you can build a field-splitting technique for chases run in
the future....

At minimum distances in top quality races you know the French-bred
horses must be respected. At the middle distances the French still
have a good record but the Irish runners have asserted their
dominance in recent years. At the staying trips the Irish runners
have the whip hand whilst the French and the British horses are no
better and no worse than one another.

Just a little contextual background to bear in mind over the months
ahead... you never know when the insight will come in useful....

When the stats do lead directly to winners and profits....

Not all stats just provide contextual information of course. Some
stats point directly to winners. I'm thinking here of my Winning
Profiles.... Which use the statistics provided by the historic
record to identify winners in the future....

My Winning Profiles service for the National Hunt season got
underway at the weekend and the stats got us off to a great winning
start - flagging up Paddy Power Gold Cup winner, Great Endeavour, on
Friday when he was 12/1. He was sent off at 8s on Saturday before
thrashing what was a decent field.

The great thing about the Profiles is that they provide information
you can apply subjectively. Ten punters might apply the same Profile
to the same field - and yet come up with different selections
because they are bringing their own additional knowledge and methods
to bear.

For example, I didn't back Divers on Saturday. My reading of the
Winning Profile discounted him. But other punters applied the
Profile and read the results slightly differently - including him as
a selection and getting the reward when he placed at 20s.

And I personally had a bit of a stinker in the Greatwood Handicap
Hurdle. The winner and the 3rd-placed horse appeared in my shortlist
of 5 - but I contrived to throw them out and go with 3 bigger-priced
horses instead - horses that came 7th, 8th and nowhere. But users of
the Winning Profiles service, who - unlike me - know what they are
doing were onto Brampour (12/1 winner) and Moon Dice. And one guy
wrote to me this morning to tell me the Winning Profile led him to a
place payout on Abergavenny at 28s - which is very nice going
indeed.

The bottom line is that the Winning Profiles are doing their job and
members of the service are all in profit - to varying degrees - from
the first weekend's races.

It is not too late to get onboard and join in the action. If you
haven't already checked out the service, how it works and what you
can expect... then I urge you to have a look-see. Just click here
for comprehensive details - including sneak previews of the kinds of
potent data and powerful information you can expect in each and
every profile for the remaining 18 races the service covers.

The Winning Profiles approach also led my Racing Angles readers to
Carruthers in Saturday's Rewards4Racing Handicap Chase at Cheltenham
- where he ran a cracker to land a place return having been sent off
at 10/1.

Winning Profiles are the best and most effective tool in my betting
armoury and I'm really looking forward to the rewards I expect the
approach to deliver over the winter... and beyond. If you fancy
checking out my National Hunt season service... risk-free... and at
a substantial discount... just click here to find out more...

www.shopatoxonpress.com/NH57/

Until next time, be lucky.

Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus....

• Paying more than lip service to specialization....
• How I specialize at Wolverhampton....
• What I know about making a profit at the course....
• The Winning Profile picks it right again....

Paying more than lip service to specialization....

'Specialization' is something you'll hear countless racing 'gurus'
bang on about at one point or another - usually suggesting it's
something you absolutely should be doing to get in front.

But, when it comes to giving you the actual nuts and bolts that
might help you do it - or sharing the fruits of their own efforts to
specialize (assuming they do actually practice what they preach) -
they generally have very little to offer in the way of either
practical instruction or concrete examples.

Here at Horse Racing Focus we like to do things a little
differently. We don't just talk the talk - we like to think we walk
the walk as well. We don't just tell you that it's advisable to wear
trousers - we also provide the belt and braces that hold them up. We
don't just tell you what you should be doing - we show you how we do
it ourselves. We think what we do is more useful to you that way. At
least we hope it is....

The winter all-weather season got underway a little earlier this
month - and it will run all the way through to March. In midsummer
and during the early parts of the winter jumps season the action on
the turf renders the all-weather a bit dull - something that exists
to keep the betting shop diehards from twitching too violently
between races at Steepledowns or Portman Park.

But in the cold winter months - when the frost, snow and rain can
play havoc with the fixture list - the all-weather meetings at
Wolverhampton, Lingfield, Kempton and Southwell can represent
something of a Godsend. And, now and again, let's be honest, we all
find ourselves out on a jolly at one of those venues or pursuing
some recreational betting with our mates in the pub when the all-
weather action is all we have to go at. With that in mind it is
worthwhile to ensure you are armed with some specialized
knowledge....

Now many 'gurus' and so-called 'experts' would leave you at this
point... hanging there - maybe a little better informed than you
were but certainly none the wiser. But, as I say, we do things
differently here at HRF and over the next few weeks I'm going to
give you all the ammunition you need to prosper on the all-weather
this winter.... by dint of specialization and stats....

How I specialize at Wolverhampton....

I've been to Wolverhampton reasonably frequently over the last
couple of years and I take a general interest in the racing there.
But not all of it. I focus my attention on the races run over trips
of between 5f and 9f.

Because I ignore, exclude and dismiss races at any other trip I tend
to be looking at a different set of statistics than other observers.
As a result I see the racing at Wolverhampton differently than the
general market which (for the main part) is trying to look at
everything.

For example, last season on the all weather (AW) it was the big 3
yards of Mark Johnston, Dandy Nicholls and Richard Fahey that
dominated the Championship table. Nicholls and Fahey even posted
level stakes profits of 20+ points apiece. But at Wolverhampton
I'm not interested in their runners. I only back at 5f to 9f and
these trainers' runners just aren't backable at those trips.

Johnston has saddled 39 winners at trips of 5f to 9f at
Wolverhampton since the beginning of 2009. They go in at a rate of
19.6%. But the market is onto them and overall his runners at my
trips are big level stakes losers.

Fahey has saddled 33 winners at the track over my trips since the
start of 2009. But he's had to saddle 277 runners to get those
winners. He's posted a small profit of 6.5 points at 5f to 9f but
his strike rate of just 11.9% tells us that he's inconsistent and
that backing his runners to level stakes is a ticket for the
rollercoaster.

No trainer has had more winners at my Wolverhampton trips since the
beginning of 2009 than David Evans. He's had 43 of them. On that
basis he could appear like a man to back over the shorter distances
at Wolves - but you'd be wrong. It has taken more than 450 runners
to notch those winners. The strike rate is below 10% and the level
stakes losses amount to 167 points.

What I know about making a profit at the course....

I compile and study stats that are focused purely on races run at
the trips I specialize in. These highlight things that the wider
market doesn't see - the wider market being generally focused on the
'overall' picture. And my attention is drawn to micro-trends and
sweets-pots that the wider market isn't aware of.

At my Wolverhampton trips, for example. I am always interested in
David Barron's horses. Since the beginning of 2009 his runners have
gone in at 22.2% over trips between 5f and 9f - with level stakes
profit amounting to 25+ points.

• Watch out for his runners over the 9f trip. Over this
  idiosyncratic trip his last 29 runners have produced 10 wins and
  15.5 points of profit to level stakes.

• At 5f to 9f you should focus on his runners aged 4 and older.
  The last 63 runners produced 16 winners and 33.2 points of profit to
  level stakes at SPs.

• Graham Gibbons is a notable jockey booking. His last 24 rides
  for Barron over these trips produced 7 winners and almost 40 points
  worth of profit.

Michael Bell is another trainer with a decent strike rate at the
track over the shorter trips - 22.5% since the beginning of 2009.

• His runners over the 7f trip have paid dividends for punters
  in recent times - the last 29 producing 8 winners and 32 points of
  profit to level stakes.

• His 3-year-olds at these trips are 11 from 51 since January
  2009 - delivering 17 points of surplus to level stakes.

• Application of a visor shouldn't put you off. He's won with
  both horses he's tried the visor with.

• Handicaps at these trips have been fertile - 10 winners from
  46 runners and 25 points of profit.

• Take note that bell has put a claimer up 6 times since the
  beginning of 2009 - and none of those horses won.

Ex-jockey, Keith Dalgleish, hasn't been training long - but he's
already showing all the hallmarks of a trainer who can get the job
done at Wolverhampton over the shorter trips. His first 37 runners
on the all-weather track have produced 9 winners and a very healthy
level stakes profit of 33 points. His is very much a yard to follow
this winter at Wolves.

• Runners which have raced - anywhere - within the last
  fortnight are of particular interest. His last 22 qualifiers scored
  7 times and produced 25 points of profit to level stakes.

• Joe Fanning has ridden 27 of the Dalgleish runners at
  Wolverhampton - winning on 6 and delivering 12 points of surplus.

• All 9 winners came in handicap events - focusing on just
  handicaps at these trips produced 41 points of profit to level
  stakes. 

Just a few profitable angles to be going on with over the shorter
trips at Wolverhampton this winter - angles which underpin the view
that specialization opens the door to profit.

The Winning Profile picks it right again....

Dynaste was the latest winner picked out by my Winning Profiles at
the weekend. He was advised to my Racing Angles readers at 10/1 on
Friday afternoon - before he got backed into 7s and routed the Fixed
Brush Hurdle field at Haydock on Saturday.

The Winning Profiles are on quite a roll at the moment - picking out
a number of good-priced winners and a number of horses that paid
decent each-way returns over the last few weeks.

Just the week previous Great Endeavour won the Paddy Power Gold Cup
at Cheltenham (advised at 12s - sent off at 8s) getting my
standalone Winning Profiles service for the 2011/2012 NH season off
to a cracking start.

This weekend I've got a very strong book of stats to hand to apply
to Saturday's Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury. It's another big-field
betting heat - and there are plenty of runners in with big chances.
The beauty of the Winning Profile is that the stats will enable us
to quickly and effectively hone the field down to the 'live'
contenders that look best-placed to win - based on the cold, hard
facts produced by the historic record of the race.

It certainly isn't too late to get onboard and grab your slice of
the Winning Profile action. With Weird Al, Medermit, Zuider Zee,
Great Endeavor and Dynaste all winning at very nice prices in recent
weeks - and franking the Winning Profile approach in the process -
it's a great time to test the theory and the stats for yourself -
entirely risk-free.

If you'd like to join us in time for the Hennessy on Saturday - and
for an additional 17 races throughout the season - then just click
here to find out a lot more than I can outline in this column...

www.shopatoxonpress.com/NH57/

I'll be back next week with the lowdown on angles for making profits
at Southwell on the all-weather.

Until next time, be lucky.

Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus....

• A yard to note over short trips at Southwell....
• 7 ways to play the yard's runners for profit....
• Getting the Irish perspective....

A unique course....

Specialization can give the racing punter a real edge. That's the
theory. In practice specialization means focusing closely on a
specific niche within the sport and then mining that niche deeply...
studying it... investigating it... monitoring it....  every aspect
of it... until you know it inside out and back to front... better
than the rest of the market.

Last week we looked at some angles that grew out of stats I produce
for races over the 5f to 9f trips at Wolverhampton.... betting
angles that the vast majority of the market is unaware of... because
the vast majority of the market isn't prepared to specialize in that
way... or to put in the time, thought and work that the
specialization process demands.

Continuing on this theme of how specialization can fuel betting
profit we move to Southwell this week - an all-weather track where
it would be fair to expect specialization to produce some decent
dividends. Why? Because Southwell is unique. There's no other track
like it in the country.

Races at Kempton, Lingfield and Wolverhampton are run on what is
known as the Polytrack surface. Polytrack has the texture of natural
dirt but is lighter in color. It is a mixture of sand, synthetic
fibers and recycled rubber coated with a microcrystalline wax. Races
at Southwell, on the other hand, are run on a surface called
Fibresand. Fibresand is also sand and synthetic fibres but it is
softer than Polytrack and produces greater 'kickback'.

Given that Southwell presents a unique set of challenges to the
horses that run there it is reasonable to expect - or at least to
consider - that some animals and some humans might be better suited
to those challenges, or better able or better equipped to take
advantage of the unique circumstances, than others?

Certainly one yard's runners are well worth taking note of at
Southwell. It is not the only yard to produce winners at the track -
but it is one of the very few to maintain both a high winning
strike-rate percentage AND a high level stakes profit for punters
over the last 3 years. On that basis the yard and its runners are
worth looking at in more detail. 

Once again, as is the case with all the all-weather tracks, I
restrict my interest and my focus to the races run over the shorter
distances - in this instance races run over trips between 5f and 8f.
All the angles below - and the stats that support them - are based
on a study of races which were run at Southwell between January 1st
2009 and the present day.

A yard to note over short trips at Southwell....

I highlighted in last week's column that it is worth noting David
Barron's runners at Wolverhampton over the shorter trips. Runners
from his North Yorkshire yard are also worth noting when down to run
over 5f to 8f trips at Southwell.

In producing my analysis I discounted all Barron's runners at the
shorter trips which were sent off at SPs of 50/1 or bigger. He had a
50/1 winner in 2009 and I didn't want that aberration to distort the
figures -so that they look a sight more positive than is the case in
reality.

Even with that big-priced winner struck from the record Barron's
overall record at the shorter trips is positive. His runners have
gone in at a rate of 24.5% over the last couple of years - with 143
runners producing 35 winners (with 20 different horses winning for
the yard). To level stakes his runners over 5f to 8f have produced a
profit of some 45.6 points.

That's not a bad overall record at all.... but we can still reduce
the workload and/or improve the strike rate and increase the profit
by identifying David Barron's profitable sweet spots... seven of
them in fact....

• The yard is hot over sprint trips - over the last 3 years you
  could have reduced your bets to 86 runners whilst still hitting 24
  winners and not affecting overall level stakes profit one iota by
  focusing purely on the yard's runners over 5f and 6f.

• Barron likes to send his juveniles to Southwell - when Barron
  sends a 2-year-old runner to contest a 5f to 8f race at the track
  you should sit up and take notice. 50% of the last 14 he's sent to
  race on the fibresand have won. You might think the market would be
  well onto that fact. But it isn't. Level stakes profits following
  the juveniles amount to 43 points - or £430 to £10 bets. There's
  mileage in looking out for these youngsters in the entries. 

• The yard has excelled in non-handicap events - the last 40
  runners in non-handicap races have produced 15 winners at 37.5%. The
  wins are clearly no fluke. Punters following the yard's non-handicap
  runners are 62.3 points to the good over the period - or £623 to £10
  stakes. That's very nice.

• Note horses racing off a week's break or shorter - the last 15
  horses sent to Southwell by Barron no more than 7 days since their
  last run have produced 6 winners and 7 points worth of profit to
  level stakes. His horses running having their first run at the
  course are 3 wins from 7 runners - and delivered 13 points worth of
  profit to level stakes over the period. Debutants are clearly worth
  watching too.

• In the hot seat - Graham Gibbons (6 wins from 21 rides - no
  profit or loss) and Phillip Makin (14 wins from 51 rides and 13
  points of profit) have been significant bookings over the shorter
  trips in recent seasons. But keep your eye on Lee
  Newman too. He's 6 wins from his last 18 rides for Barron at
  Southwell over 5f to 8f - and level stakes profit amount to 21.2
  points. They combined well earlier in the year and I'd expect them
  to come together to good effect over the winter too.

• Hang on until the tail end of the All Weather season? Looking
  at the stats in front of me it might be advisable to play cautiously
  this side of Christmas. Barron's yard traditionally does better with
  its runners in February and March - when the yard is gearing up for
  the turf season. During those months since the beginning of 2009 the
  yard's runners at shorter trips at Southwell are 16 wins from 50
  runners (32%) - generating level stakes profits of 19.7 points.

• Entries in Southwell sellers are worth a look - the yard
  doesn't make a habit of contesting the selling races. Just 15 horses
  from the yard have run in such races since the beginning 2009 - but
  6 winners and level stakes profits amounting to 18.7 points make
  them a group worth being aware of. All 6 of the yards winners in
  sellers were raced with less than 9-0 on their backs.

Just a few angles for Southwell that it will pay to be in possession
of between now and next March.... courtesy of specialization....

The Irish perspective....

There's a case for saying that there's just too much racing in
Britain at the moment. And that the quality is poor as a result.
There's too much action to watch, too many horses to follow and way
too much work to do if you're trying to keep on top of it all. 

That's why a lot of top punters are looking across the Irish sea and
making the Irish racing the staple of their betting diet.

In Ireland there are a lot fewer meetings and races. There's not so
much action to follow. And because there are fewer opportunities to
run races attract quality fields. It's a great betting medium.  In
short Irish racing is high-quality action in a manageable format.

Getting involved in the racing in another country can be a bit
daunting - when you don't know an awful lot about the horses, the
races, the trainers, the jockeys or the markets. But it really is
worth taking the time and making the effort to get a handle on the
Irish scene - especially given that so many Irish horses raid the
big races over here.

Over the last few months I've been using a service called Irish Big
Race Trends as part of a process to familiarise myself - on an
ongoing basis - about Irish races and the Irish horses. It offers
trends analysis of the big races in Ireland and that's a really
useful educational tool for me.

But punters also like the service because it has a history of
picking out good-priced winners in big races in Ireland and on
selected big races on this side of the Irish Sea. On the Wednesday
of last season's Festival at Cheltenham the service tipped up 4
Irish-trained winners - First Lieutenant at 7/1, Bostons Angel at
16/1, Sizing Europe at 10/1 and Carlito's Brigante at 16/1. A great
performance - and not a one-off by any means.

Personally I'm not too concerned about tips because I like to find
my own bets. I use the service as an educational tool. But whatever
you're looking for the service is one to try and this weekend is a
very good time to sample it - because the Irish Big Race Trends
service is offering trends analysis on 5 big races selected from the
weekend cards at Sandown, Aintree and Fairyhouse for a one-off
payment of just £10. 

If you fancy an education or you'd just like to assess the big race
tips with an Irish flavour then secure your weekend advice on the
link below. Simply select the option for the
'Exclusive Horse Racing Focus Weekend Offer'...

www.irishbigracetrends.com/amember/signup.php

Until next time, be lucky.