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5th November 2009
Good afternoon, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus...
- Unique information... Not tipping
- Some key trends for Donny...
- And elsewhere...
Unique information... Not tipping...
I've had quite a postbag following on from last week's column about
my forthcoming new service - Racing Angles. One thing many of you
wanted to know was whether or not Racing Angles will be a tipping
service. I want to emphasise here, as strongly as possible, that
Racing Angles will definitely NOT be a tipping service.
I've never been a big user of tipsters. It's just not the way I
engage with the sport. And wagering my money on the back of someone
else's opinion is not the way I approach my betting. I like to do my
own work and my own thinking. I like to come to my own conclusions.
And I like to sink or swim on the basis of my own selections. It's
not everybody's way. But it's my way.
Throughout my years of following the horses I've always been much
more in need of quality information I can use than I have the
services of some tipster. The success or failure of anything you do
in your life is almost exclusively dependent on the information
you're acting on. And race betting is no different.
Good information gives you a fighting chance...the wrong information
leaves you up the proverbial creek without the aid of a paddle. It's
like the old adage says... if you put garbage in then you get
garbage out.
I think the vast majority of HRF readers are like me - more
interested in information they can work with to produce their own
selections than they are in receiving selections from a tipster. And
the Racing Angles service is about exactly that - bringing serious
racing punters high-quality information that is simply not available
elsewhere.
Using the tools I highlighted last week I'll be subjecting specific
races, horses, jockeys and trainers to the kind of rigorous
statistical analysis you can't find elsewhere. The aim is to
identify winning angles that backers and exchange layers can exploit
for consistent long-term profits. So while the information will
steer you to more successful betting, it's a bit little different
than a tipping service.
Some key trends for Donny...
Last week I promised you some revealing stats on two jumps trainers.
But owing to a combination of being laid low with a heavy cold and
getting my hands on a free badge for Doncaster on Saturday, I've
spent the week resting up and having a look at Saturday's renewal of
the November Handicap run over 1m4f at the Yorkshire course.
There have been some biggish price winners of this race in the last
few years. Tropical Strait won last year at 20/1. And in the last
ten years we've seen winners at prices of 10/1 up to 50/1 (Royal
Cavalier in 2001). Only twice in the last ten years have horses
priced in single figures won the race.
Part of the explanation for this is one of the reasons why I
wouldn't ordinarily be getting involved betting on the flat at this
time of the year - end of season flat form is notoriously
unreliable. Most of the horses racing at this time of the year have
gone 'over the top' after a long season on the go.
But maybe we can turn that apparent drawback into strength. We can
split the field by focusing our attentions on horses whose form is
holding up. A key trend in the November Handicap supports our case -
17 of the last 19 winners of this race finished in the first four
last time out. That's a pretty compelling trend.
In addition, I'd seek to pinpoint qualifiers whose most recent
performances suggest they are currently on an upward curve. Horses
that scored their biggest rating (RPR or other ratings you might
use) in a recent race merit special attention - 11 of the last 16
winners of the November Handicap scored their best Racing Post
rating in their last race.
This race might be over 1m4f but the draw has played a big part in
the outcome in the last ten years. Eight winners during that time
were drawn in a double-figure stall. Finally, ignore the top-weight.
Only one top-weight has won in the last 20 years. This is bad news
for Tastahil followers - currently trading as short as 7/1 in places
- but good news for the rest of us as we can oppose him with
confidence.
And elsewhere...
On Saturday the jumps programme takes us to Wincanton where the
Badger Ales Trophy will be contested over 3m1f 110 yards. Paul
Nicholls has dominated this contest over the last few years -
winning 50% of the last 10 renewals. It goes without saying that his
horses warrant respect.
If you're thinking of playing in this race then you should look for
horses with a win over 3 miles under their belt. Nine of the last 10
winners of the Badger Ales Trophy have conformed to this stat. A
certain amount of class is also essential. Every winner in the last
ten years had triumphed in a Class 3 event or better.
That's all from me this week. I'll be back early next week with the
stats and angles I promised on those two jump trainers. Right, now
it's back to the sickbed.
Until next time, be lucky.
20th November 2009
Good afternoon, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus...
- Trends for Sunday's Becher Handicap...
- Profiling is a major angle to have on your side...
The Becher Handicap Chase...
My focus this week has been on Sunday's renewals of the Class 1
(Listed) Becher Handicap Chase at Aintree.
Open to horses aged 5 and over, the race is contested over 3 miles 2
furlongs. The participants will have to negotiate 21 fences - and a
key point to bear in mind is that the fences are the same as those
faced by the Grand National field in April.
Obviously, the weather we get between now and Sunday afternoon is
anybody's guess. Right now the going on the Aintree National course
is Soft (Good to Soft in places). But heavy rain is forecast in the
area and conditions could become more testing by the off.
As with any big handicap race I get involved with, my first port of
call is an analysis of the basic trends the race has thrown up over
the last ten renewals - the objective being to split the field into
'live' competitors and horses unlikely to win.
I go about this analysis a little differently than other analysts. I
don't just concentrate on the last ten winners. Instead I focus on
the winners and other horses which proved themselves competitive in
the last ten renewals. And by my reckoning 35 horses have proven
themselves competitive in the last 10 renewals of the race.
What do the age trends tells us?...
Out of our 35 competitive animals from the last 10 renewals only 2
were aged 6 and neither of them won. Only one was aged 7 (Silver
Birch - the winner in 2004). There's been no winner of this race
aged 6 in all the runnings of the Becher Chase (which has been on
the fixture list since 1992). Only one winner other than Silver
Birch was aged 7.
Only 6 were aged 11 or older (Amberleigh House appearing 3 times in
this group at age 11, 12 and 13) and these older horses produced
just one winner in Feels Like Gold in 1999. Given that Amberleigh
House can be considered something of a special horse at Aintree, I'm
happy to take the view that older horses, as a general rule, don't
too well in the race.
Horses aged 8, 9 or 10 have won 80% of the last 10 renewals of the
Becher Chase. And just under 75% of horses which got competitive in
the race came from this age group. Focusing on this age group
appears to be the percentage call in the Becher Chase.
Weighty issues...
Over 3 miles 2 furlongs - and certainly in soft or testing
conditions - weight is an issue. Carrying a big weight is a
significant handicap when the ground turns the race into a slog.
Three of the last 10 winners of the Becher Chase were carrying in
excess of 11 stone. Seven of the previous 10 winners were carrying
less than that. And 5 of the last 10 winners were carrying 10-05 or
less.
Looking at the group of competitive horses as a whole 24 of the 35 -
almost 70% - had less than 11 stone on their back. A low weight is
the percentage call.
Market intelligence...
Five of the last 10 winners were priced up at 15/2 or less. But
there have been 3 years in the last 10 where the winner of the
Becher Chase has short-circuited market opinion - Amberleigh House
(2001) won at 33/1, Garvivonnian (2005) won at 33/1 and Eurotrek
(2006) won at 25/1.
There's one market based stat to bear in mind. 25 out of our 35
competitive horses - 71.4% - were priced at 16/1 or under.
Handlers to bear in mind...
Paul Nicholls has an excellent recent record in the race - having
saddled 3 winners since 2004. In addition he's also sent out 3
additional horses in the last 10 renewals which proved to be
competitive - Storm Damage, Le Duc and Heros Collonges.
Paul Hobbs has sent out a couple of competitive horses in recent
years in Double Honour and Gower Slave. Going further back he had
the 1997 winner in Samlee. Perennial Irish raider Ferdy Murphy has
also sent out a couple of competitive participants in recent times
in Haut De Gamme and Paddy's Return.
Going further back into the 1990s, Nigel Twiston Davies, whose yard
is in cracking form at the moment, saddled 3 winners of this race in
Indian Tonic (1994), Young Hustler (1995) and Earth Summit (1998).
Yesterday's successes do not tell us anything truly substantial
about tomorrow's victories. But I like to identify trainers with a
solid track-record in any specific race. Trainers, like everybody
else, are creatures of habit with their own personal preferences and
objectives. A series of competitive runners in a specific race tells
me that that race might just be a particular favourite of the
trainer - for whatever reason - and that his future entrants should
be looked at closely as a result.
The upshot...
Having applied this trend analysis to the field as it stands at the
moment, I've reduced the field of 24 down to the 9 participants
still of interest to me. They are as follows: Offshore Account; Hoo
La Baloo; Companero; Irish Raptor; Valley Ride; Always Waining; Idle
Talk; Pak Jack and Keenan's Future.
I'll be waiting to see how the weather pans out before I actually
subject these horses to a rigorous profiling process. But I'm really
happy to see Irish Raptor and Idle Talk in this group. Over the
years a number of horses which have proven very competitive in the
race have come back in subsequent years to do very well again. Irish
raptor was 6th last year and Idle Talk was 4th. I'll be paying close
attention to them when I come to look at the specific conditions and
circumstances that suit each horse.
Profiling is a major angle to have on your side...
There's no more effective way - in my humble opinion - of
establishing whether or not a horse is likely to get competitive or
flop in a race than submitting it to a profiling analysis.
It's the best method I've come across for figuring out the 'keys' to
specific horses. The objective of profiling is to identify the
circumstances and conditions under which a horse consistently
produces its best - and the circumstances and conditions under which
it patently doesn't.
When you have that kind of conclusive information to hand then
making a decision about betting any horse in any race becomes a good
deal simpler. That's the upside. The downside is that the process is
labour intensive and you need the right tools to get the job done
right.
Profiling of horses will form a central plank of my upcoming Racing
Angles service. And you'll be able to get access to my profiling
work - and a whole raft of other good stuff - in the next few days.
We've been working really hard to get this service up and running as
soon as possible. There have been a lot of requests for
comprehensive information about what the service will consist of,
how it will work, how it will benefit you and all the rest of it.
We're now applying the last few bells and whistles and I'll be
giving you access to it towards next weekend... So stay tuned and
keep your eye on your mailbox!
Until next time, be lucky.
24th November 2009
Good afternoon, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus...
- One or two to note from the weekend...
- A changing of the guard...
- Direct access to my approaches and methods...
A great weekend's racing...
What can I say about this weekend's racing from Haydock, Ascot and
Aintree? One word sums it up - fantastic.
At Haydock on Saturday the Grade 1 Betfair Chase produced a
breathtaking fight to the finish between the champ Kauto Star and
the Ryan Air Chase winner, Imperial Commander, who was stepping up
to 3 miles for the first time in his career.
Kauto Star prevailed by the shortest distance possible - a nose -
with a really battling performance. Looking beat at one stage he
rallied to get up and must have delighted connections in the process
considering Paul Nicholls reckoned he needed the race. There's still
plenty left in the tank.
Prior to the race a lot of people questioned whether Imperial
Commander would be suited by the trip. I think it's safe to say
those doubts have been laid to rest. On very soft ground he stayed
every inch and was desperately unlucky not to lower the champ's
colours. His performance announced his credentials at the bigger
distances and he's set to compete for the very biggest prizes -
particularly on better ground.
The most eyecatching performance of the afternoon came from Diamond
Harry in the Fixed Brush Handicap Hurdle over 3 miles. He'd been
chasing but reverting back to the smaller obstacles he gave away
weight all around on the soft ground and never once looked troubled
- cruising into the lead and leading home a really strung out field.
In short, the Nick Williams 6-year-old looked awesome. Whether over
hurdles or fences, he looks like a horse headed right for the very
top.
A changing of the guard...
Every so often we witness a changing of the guard in the hurdling
division as younger horses come to the fore and old heroes seem to
fall victim to the sands of time.
On Saturday we saw a few horses who will likely be challenging for
the championship races in the Spring - Mr Thriller, Starluck, Zaynar
and Karabak are amongst the best of the new kids on the block. The
latter two made mincemeat of ex-Champion Hurdler, Katchit, toughest
horse in training, Lough Derg, Elusive Dream and Straw Bear in the
Coral Ascot Hurdle.
You might recall that both Karabak and Diamond Harry were beaten by
Mikael D'haguenet in the Ballymore Novice Hurdle at the Cheltenham
Festival in March - and the Willie Mullins 5-year-old is another we
can add to the list of emerging youngsters set to compete for the
biggest prizes in the hurdling division.
Another to take out of that Cheltenham race in March is China Rock -
who finished just a neck behind Diamond Harry in 4th. You can ignore
his last performance at Punchestown on 15th November - it was over 2
miles - which I believe to be an inadequate trip - on heavy ground.
Over 2m4f and more he's a real prospect.
The action comes thick and fast...
From this point forward the action comes thick and fast. Not a
weekend will go by without a massive race being staged. If you're
anything like me it's hard to wait from one Saturday to the next.
I tend to specialize in the big handicap chases run over 2m4f or
more. There's so much racing that it pays to specialize. I don't
think anybody can cover everything - no matter how much time or
energy they have available.
Two weekly emails of Racing Angles...
One component of my new Racing Angles service will be to focus on
the big handicap chase every weekend. In Thursday's email I'll be
reporting in-depth on the major trends governing the big race and
using those trends to split the field into probables and the not-so-
probables.
In Friday's email I'll be profiling the probables and reporting on
which horses will be best suited to the circumstances and conditions
they'll face on race days - the intention being to highlight a
shortlist of horses for your consideration.
And daily website updates...
But that's not all I'll be doing. Throughout the week I'll be
updating the password protected website - bringing you unique profit
angles, stats, analysis, insights and my observations. The bottom
line is that if I'm looking at, thinking about it, studying it or
checking it out - then you'll be hearing about it. I guess Racing
Angles is the next best thing to being right by my side and having
direct access to my methods, approaches and analysis.
Quite a few of you have asked for details about the Racing Angles
service - and we're just putting the finishing touches to our
information pack. Later in the week I'll drop you a line about how
and where you can access this - including details of how you can
claim an exclusive 'guest membership' to put it to the test, risk
free.
Until then, be lucky.
27th November 2009
Good afternoon, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus...
- I'm mad about the Voy...
- Strong trends for the Hennessy...
I'm mad about the Voy...
Most of the races I'm most interested in from a personal betting
perspective (especially as a backer) take place at the weekend or
during the big festivals that start earlier in the week. It means
that during the week, when much of the racing constitutes little
more than a product for the bookie to pipe into the betting shops, I
get plenty of opportunity to consider horses that contest the bigger
and better races.
One horse I've been thinking about this week is Voy Por Ustedes. He
seems like he's been on the scene forever - yet, hard though it
might be to believe, he's still only 8 years-old. He burst onto the
scene as a hurdler in 2005. But it was when he was sent over fences
that he really revealed his quality.
In a glittering career to date he's won an Arkle Chase, a Champion
Chase, two Melling Chases and a Betfair Ascot Chase. In addition
he's put up multiple other credible performances in the top races
over fences at distances of 2 miles and upwards. From 27 runs he's
had 12 wins (5 of them Grade 1) and he's only finished outside the
first 3 on 4 occasions (and two of those were during races where he
unseated his rider).
On Saturday he made his seasonal reappearance at Ascot in the Amlin
Chase where he finished 3rd to an apparently rejuvenated Albertas
Run and Planet of Sound. Back in March he'd been beaten at odds-on
in the Ryan Air Chase when his jumping seemed to fall to pieces. And
that's what happened to his jumping again on Saturday. That said he
still managed to plug on and was only beaten 7 and three-quarter
lengths by the winner at the end.
Is it all over for the French-bred gelding?
In the pub on Saturday night the usual suspects were conducting the
familiar inquest into the day's racing. The consensus seemed to be
that we've seen the best of Voy Por Ustedes and that it's all over
for Alan King's gelding.
But I'm not so sure he should be written off quite so readily. And
there are good reasons for my holding that opinion.
First off, in between the performance at Cheltenham in March and
Saturday's similarly ragged performance, Voy Por Ustedes got it
together and put up a very game effort to win the second of his
Melling Chases at Aintree. Grade 1 wins don't fall to any old horse.
It takes a good one to win one.
Second, punters should never read too much into Voy Por Ustedes
first run of the season. This is the 4th season in a row when he's
been beaten on his seasonal reappearance. 11 of his 12 career wins
have come after a return to the racecourse of 50 days or less.
That said the horse's jumping has looked decidedly sketchy in 3 of
his last 5 races and, whatever the problem, that needs putting
right. His next entry is in the King George at Kempton on Boxing
Day.
It remains to be seen just how well he can get 3 miles. In last
season's renewal he came 3rd - but didn't stay the trip quite as
well as Albertas Run. Maybe another year's maturity and
strengthening will help his cause. Maybe he'll need to stay at trips
of 2m4f-2m5f is we're to see him at his best. Time will tell. But
don't write the horse off just yet. He's tough, he's durable and
he's got a habit of chinning the knockers.
Strong trends in the Hennessy...
Saturday's showpiece race is the Grade 3, Class 1 Hennessy Gold Cup
at Newbury over 3 miles 2 furlongs and 110 yards. There are 21
declared runners which might seem a little intimidating at first
sight - but there are strong prevalent trends in the race which you
can use to split the field and construct a shortlist of horses we
can expect a big run from.
-
Age Trends: Runners aged 6 or 7 have dominated recent runnings
of the Hennessy. This age group has produced 9 out of the last 10
winners. That's an impressive statistic in itself. But when you
consider that 33 of the 44 horses I consider competitive in the last
10 renewals come from that age bracket (that's 75%) it really does
confirm that the percentage call in this race is to side with the
younger horses. Six-year-olds have a particularly impressive record.
In the last decade just 28 have gone to post yet 14 of these appear
on my list of competitive horses.
-
Market Trends: 30 of the 44 competitive horses in the last 10
renewals went off on the day at 12/1 or shorter - a price band that
has produced 7 of the last ten winners. Six of the last 10 winners
were sent off at 13/2 or shorter. Only a single horse has won the
event at a bigger price than 16/1 in the last ten years. Of the 14
competitive horses priced 14/1 or bigger, 5 were carrying low
weights - around the 10 stone dead mark. Where the Hennessy is
concerned the market tends to be pretty clued up and we can
use it to guide us when it comes to sorting the wheat from the
chaff.
-
Form Trends: Madison du Berlais broke a strong trend last year
when he won the race after finishing 6th in his previous run. Over
the last 10 years 6 winners of the Hennessy had won last time out -
9 previous of the last 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in the
previous run - whether it was during the current season or their
last run during their previous season.
-
Inexperience Matters: Despite the distance and the competitive
nature of the Hennessy, the prize doesn't usually go to the horses
with the most experience over fences. In fact, in recent years, less
experience is more where this particular handicap is concerned.
Out of my list of 44 competitive horses from past renewals 33 (or 75%)
had run in chases 10 times or less before going to post. 8 out of
the last 10 winners of the race had raced over fences 6 times or
less. Preferring improvers over exposed horses is a good rule to
follow here.
-
Weight Not An Issue: Not so long ago carrying a big weight in
the Hennessy was a real liability. Only one horse had carried more
than 11 stone to victory in the 21 years leading up to 2005. Since
then four horses have busted that trend - Trabolgan in 2005 carrying
11-12, State of Play in 2006 carrying 11-4, Denman in 2007 carrying
11-12 and Madison du Berlais last year carrying 11-4. During the
same period 7 additional horses have been competitive with weight in
excess of 11 stone on their backs.
Hopefully, these trends analyses will help you narrow your focus
onto the horses with big chances come 2.45 on Saturday afternoon.
Last year the trends led us to Air Force One which delivered a big
run to finish second. Here's to going one better this time.
Stop Press... If you found this email useful and value this kind of
advice, there is a very special opportunity coming your way very
soon.
This kind of big race analysis forms the core of my brand new Racing
Angles service. But I'll be going into much more detail - using
unique betting tools developed during my years working behind enemy
lines in the trading rooms of some of Britain's biggest bookmakers.
We are literally days away from launch - just running the last few
tests on the website (yes, my friends, the service includes a
password protected website for your exclusive pleasure!).
As readers you will get first refusal on the service, PLUS - you are
in line to receive an exclusive discount from the publisher's price
AND a free gift.
I'll be in touch in a matter of days with details of how you can
reserve a 'guest membership' so keep a keen eye on your inbox!
Until next time, be lucky.
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