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9th October 2009
Good afternoon, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus...
- It all starts at Chepstow...
- When the 'official' going is wrong...
- Embrace that stick in the mud...
It all starts at Chepstow...
This Saturday's meeting at Chepstow signals the start of the winter
jumps season - six months of steeplechase and hurdle races,
meaningful and instructive contests and betting heats every
weekend, and all building up to a protracted crescendo at the
Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestowns Festivals in the spring. It's
good to be on the verge of it again.
The Chepstow card represents a steady rather than spectacular start
to proceedings. There's just two chases - a novice event and a
Class 3 Handicap both over 3 miles. There are four hurdle events -
handicaps over 2m 110 yards and 2m 4f, and two novice events - one
restricted to juveniles. The closing race is the bumper (National
Hunt flat race).
For me it will be a watching brief rather than a betting focus. I
like to 'settle' back into the jumps before wading in with my
money. The 'Open' meeting at Cheltenham traditionally signals the
start of betting - at least where backing activity is concerned.
When it comes to laying, I'm always involved.
The ground issue...
It's a decent point in the calendar to review one or two of the
basics - the cornerstones on which our betting activity is built.
For example, the start of a new jumps season is a good time to
reconsider and re-emphasise the importance of 'going'
Whenever you are considering backing a horse there's one question
you must ask yourself ahead of any other: Will the horse act on the
going?
The state of the ground is absolutely KEY to determining the
outcome of races. If your horse has previously demonstrated it
cannot handle the ground on which it will be racing today then you
should not be backing it. This simple rule will mean you miss the
odd winner. But you will swerve many more losers.
You might think it´s a simple matter to establish a horse´s
preferred ground? Or to identify the type of ground on which it
simply won´t perform? Surely it´s just a matter of examining the
horse´s record, scrutinising its performances on the various types
of going it has encountered and, from there, drawing some
conclusions as to what type of ground conditions it handles and
those it doesn´t?
Now, approximately 8 times out of 10, this approach would serve you
very well. But there are odd occasions when this approach will
derail your best efforts, lead you to jump to erroneous conclusions
and encourage you to make some bad bets.
Why? Because this approach requires you to take the official going
reports returned for every meeting at face value. And there are
occasions when to do that is folly.
The official going report...
The official going at each of the UK racetracks is determined by a
race official known as the Clerk of the Course who pokes a walking
stick into the course to assess the give underfoot.
From such intricate and scientific techniques of measurement are
official going reports born. The official going at any course on
any day will be categorized using one of the following
descriptions:
- Hard
- Firm
- Good to firm
- Good
- Good to soft
- Soft
- Heavy
Sometimes they get it wrong - the occasions where what we are see
in a race bears no resemblance to the official going.
We've all seen races on 'good to soft' ground where the kickback of
mud from the horses tells us that 'soft' going would be a more
accurate description. Or races on 'soft' ground where the horses
are drowning in mud and we know in our own minds the going is
really 'heavy'.
When the formbook lies...
The problem for punters is that the 'official going' remains the
'official going' whether or not it accurately reflects conditions
the race was run in. Viewers watching at home or at the track can
see that the course is riding heavy. But if the official going is
'soft' then it is ´soft´ that will appear in the next day's
records, in the horse's individual record and - crucially - the
formbook.
In other words, the formbook will be giving us false information.
So how do we deal with this dilemma? How can we trust what the
formbook says? How can we establish whether the reported official
going was correct? How can we fathom what the true going was when
the official going appears to be wrong? Faced with this dilemma
there is a path toward certainty...
Embrace that old stick in the mud...
The going stick is a relatively new innovation in racing - created
in 2000 by Turftrax for the UK Horseracing Regulatory Authority and
approved for use in 2003.
It works like this: the stick's 4 inch probe is stuck into the
ground to measure penetration and is then pulled back at a 45
degree angle to simulate the shear of a horse's hoof. The stick is
used to produce measurements at up to 60 locations on flat courses
and up to 80 locations on National Hunt tracks. A measurement or
reading of 1 represents the softest ground and a measurement of 14
represents the firmest.
The going stick is now used on all UK racecourses. Its readings
form part of the going reports at the Racing Post website and are
also recorded as a component part of their race results.
Different readings mean different things at different courses owing
to variations in soil types and other circumstances - but the data
the going stick produces does appear to provide a basis for some
degree of certainty about the state of the ground.
Last year when I looked back at race meetings at Newcastle, for
example, a reading of 7.8 would suggest genuine good going.
Elsewhere genuine good going might produce a reading of 8.5.
There's a little work involved in figuring out what figure means
what and where - but this is pretty simple. Go through a few months
worth of results from any specific course and you soon get a feel
for what ground type lies where on the scale. As an aside it's my
belief that racing authorities - assuming they actually want
punters to engage with new innovations - should be providing this
type of information as a matter of course.
The beauty of the going stick's numerical data is that it provides
a great deal more insight than words alone. Official going of
'good' doesn't really tell you much. Was it genuine good ground?
Was it slightly on the softer side? Was it almost good to soft?
Was it just a little firmer than good? Was it almost good to firm?
The word 'good' doesn't really give you the full picture. An
accurate numerical rating tells you much more. If genuine good
ground at a specific course is 7.2 then a reading of 7.6 tells you
it was a little on the firmer side. A reading of 6.8 tells you it
was slightly on the softer side.
There's groundwork (forgive the pun) involved in figuring these
things out - but there's a real edge to be gained from taking that
work on.
Until next time, be lucky.
20th October 2009
Good afternoon, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus...
- The bookies will not oppose Nicholls...
- Big market support for the yard's runners...
- Back at prices the bookies like least...
The bookies will not oppose Nicholls...
Try getting a bet on Paul Nicholls to retain the National Hunt
Trainers' Championship over the course of the 2009/10 season. One
thing is for sure - you'll struggle. I haven't gone through every
bookmaker's offerings with a fine toothcomb but I have had a swift
gander at the major books - and none of them are sticking their
head over the parapet.
I spent half an hour on the phone to Ladbrokes this morning - most
of it on hold - trying to get the bottom line. They won't come out
and say it directly - but they don't want to play. Such is the
Ditcheat trainer's dominance they're scared to offer a price - even
at very long odds-on. They don't want streams of punters wading in
to 'buy' money.
Quite why nobody appears to be making a book on the Championship
without Nicholls in the betting is beyond me - but that's another
story. Maybe we can anticipate that market appearing shortly -
given that the winter programme is already in its early stages. But
let's not hold our breath.
To be fair it's not hard to see where the bookies are coming from
with Nicholls. In the magazine that accompanied Saturday's edition
of the Daily Telegraph there was a small piece on the trainer where
he talked about a painting he's had done of Denman, Kauto Star,
Master Minded and Big Bucks as they over-summered in the field at
the front of his home.
No other trainer can boast such supreme firepower. And in the ranks
behind that big four Nicholls has plenty of other horses who would
be the absolute darlings of any other yard in the country. When it
comes to jumping Nicholls definitely holds the nut hand. He's
nailed on to saddle plenty of winners.
But can we punters make any profit on his runners? Is there an
angle we can use to get ahead? Let's have a look.
Big market support for the yard's runners...
From the start of September this year up to the end of racing
yesterday (Monday 19th) Nicholls had saddled 19 runners with 5 of
those winning their races at a strike rate of 26.3%. Of those 19
runners 18 went off at prices of 4/1 or less. The only exception
was old favourite Hoo La Baloo who was sent off at 7/1 at Chepstow
with the little-known Ian Popham onboard. What this stat tells us
is that the wider betting public is prepared to wade into 9 out of
10 Nicholls runners. It's that old 'punters back winners to produce
more winners' syndrome again.
But winners don't always produce profits for backers. And despite
the fact that 14 of the Nicholls runners over the last six weeks
have been beaten - there's been no profit in it for layers either.
Overall, backers and layers of Nicholls runners are more or less
breaking even so far this season. But what do the longer term
trends tell us?
Since the beginning of 2007 Nicholls has saddled 935 runners which
were sent off at 4/1 or less. Of these, 598 horses lost their races
and produced an 81 point profit at level stakes for those prepared
to go against the market and oppose the Nicholls runners on the
exchanges. Playing to £100 level stakes that's £8100 in profits
(minus betting exchange commission).
That might look pretty tasty on paper but if we look at just 2008
and 2009 so far those figures change pretty dramatically. Since the
start of 2008, 641 Nicholls runners have gone off at 4/1 or less.
Whilst 405 have lost their races the profits of laying all the
runners have reduced dramatically to just over 29 points.
Nicholls may well be still improving as a handler. His yard may
also contain a higher concentration of quality now than it did just
a couple of years ago. Nicholls has 287 horses in his yard at the
moment. And the focus is very much on horses that can win races -
the bigger the better. Nicholls isn't slow to weed out and get rid
of horses that have proven they don't have what it takes.
The bottom line is that I wouldn't want to be blindly opposing
short-priced Nicholls runners right now. The trend of diminishing
profits for layers might be set to continue and I don't want to be
sucked into a lot of work for little or maybe no profit at the end
of it.
Back at prices the bookies like least...
Instead, where Nicholls runners are concerned what I'd be doing is
giving my enemy what he wants least. I'd be focusing my attention
and efforts on backing his runners in the price bands where
bookmakers most dislike striking racing bets.
The stats support my argument. Since the beginning of 2008 backing
Nicholls runners when they were bigger than 3/1 and smaller than
6/1 produced 46 winners from 194 bets and a 41 point profit. To
£100 level stakes that's a profit of £4100.
Sure, you're not going to retire on the profits. But very few
single betting angles are going to meet that objective. However, as
one component of a wider portfolio of approaches, this Nicholls
angle definitely merits consideration.
Another angle to make the most of where Paul Nicholls is concerned
is his Saturday column in the Racing Post (due to start appearing
again soon). One thing punters really like about Nicholls is his
openness and his honesty when talking about his own runners. He
doesn't trumpet them from the rooftops when he doesn't fancy them.
And he doesn't put you off them when he does. He just tells it how
he sees it and - coming from a trainer of his skill and repute -
that's a real steer for those punters who take the time to tune in.
The last piece of advice this week is a recommendation - to just
sit back and revel in the winter programme. Jump racing is in
something of a golden age right now in my humble opinion. It just
seems to be getting better and better each season - and long may
that particular trend continue.
Until next time, be lucky.
27th October 2009
Good afternoon, friends,
In today's Horse Racing Focus...
- How I love to crack the big handicaps...
- How my hands were tied...
- The tools the bookmaker's tried to ban...
- I'm getting ready to make a big move...
How I love to crack the big handicaps...
Whether it's on the flat or over the jumps I tend to specialize and
focus my primary efforts on the big handicap events. A lot of
professional punters and analysts of the sport will tell you that
this choice of mine is tantamount to financial suicide. I can see
why they might think that - big fields of horses, all of similar
ability and plenty of them really competing hard to land the
valuable financial prizes these races invariably offer connections.
When I put it like that I can almost fool myself into believing
that the big handicap races are minefields that simply can't be
negotiated. But they aren't. The fact is, as far as I'm concerned,
there are no better races with which to get involved as a punter.
The beauty of the big handicaps is that the individual events
themselves are generally governed by strong trends. Certain races
are regularly won - year in and year out - by specific types of
horses that share similar attributes. With the necessary trend
information at your disposal you can quickly split any handicap
field into probables and no-hopers - an edge that puts you well
ahead of the wider market.
These races also tend to be contested by older horses that have
been around for quite a while - long enough for people like me to
figure out their preferences and the conditions and circumstances
under which they are likely to get competitive or disappoint.
I call it 'profiling' and it's a powerful filter through which to
run your shortlist of fancies and come up with the horses most
suited to the specific conditions, circumstances and challenges an
individual renewal presents.
Trend analysis and profiling of individual horses are the twin
foundation stones on which my handicap betting has been built over
many years. The last three years have been a bit different though.
I've found betting on handicaps a bit more difficult. Because I've
had my hands tied to a large extent. Let me explain...
How my hands were tied...
Working in the bookmaking industry was a productive and
enlightening experience for me. For one, it gave me an opportunity
to view the betting landscape from the other side of the fence. It
gave me an insight into how bookmaking operations stay two or three
steps ahead of 95% of punters and ensure that overall they win and
keep on winning over the long term.
It also gave me the opportunity to meet some fantastic people -
intelligent, ideas-driven, amusing and good company. Sure, I met a
lot of actors, bluffers, boneheads and self-deluded power trippers
(all clipboard but no real clue) but you meet those people just
about everywhere you go. The shrewder minds I met, and learnt a
great deal from, more than made up for the makeweights. I learnt
lessons you just can't learn in civilian punting life.
Working for bookies also gave me the time and opportunity to create
and develop tools that both complimented and built on my methods
for solving the big handicap races. For example, it was whilst
working for a bookmaker that I created a database designed to
analyze the trends that prevail in any number of big handicap
events.
Tools 'banned' by the bookmakers...
I also developed a tool to assist with the detailed profiling of
individual horses. The tool analyses the overall form of any given
horse and within seconds reduces that mass of complex and often
seemingly contradictory information to a few key statements which
reveal exactly when you should be with the horse and exactly under
what conditions you should definitely be opposing it.
These are great tools for any punter hoping to solve a big handicap
race. But they also represented powerful tools for the bookmaker
when his odds compilers came to price up the same events. Being as
the tools had been developed, tested and refined on the bookie's
time, it was only fair he had first call on them. And that worked
just fine for as long as my tenure in the bookmaking industry
lasted.
What wasn't quite so hunky dory was the clause in my employment
contract which banned me from making any use of my tools for three
years after leaving the bookmaker's employ. The good news is that
the three-year period of restraint came to an end just a few weeks
ago. My tools are my own once again - to use freely and as I see
fit.
It's bad news for the bookmaker...
I can promise you one thing. The bookmakers don't like it. After
all, they know the value of my tools. They know exactly what my
tools can do. And they know exactly the type of betting angles and
real punting edges they are capable of delivering into the hands of
serious racing punters. They know because they've used the tools
themselves. They've profited from the insight my tools provide into
the big handicap races throughout the season... and more besides.
Using my trend analysis and profiling tools enabled bookmakers to
identify 'live' runners in the big handicaps - key information that
enabled them to go 'short' on those runners and minimize potential
liabilities. My tools also enabled them to identify no-hopers and
horses not suited to a specific race - more key information
enabling them to go 'long' on these runners and attract as many
bets as possible from an unwise market acting without access to the
same data.
The bookmakers do not want you to get access to that kind of data
under any circumstances. They understand exactly how you could use
that kind of information against them. And how that information
will turn you into the last kind of client they want on their books
- a winning client who is consistently profitable over the long
term.
But that's the bookies' problem. What the bookie does and doesn't
want is of no concern to me whatsoever. I'm too busy... because...
I'm getting ready to make a big move...
Just recently I've used HRF to bring you a series of angles you can
use to make your race betting pay consistently over the long-term -
opposing McCoy's short-priced rides and backing Paul Nicholls
runners at bigger than 3/1 and smaller than 6/1 to name just two.
This week I'm taking a little break from my research and analysis
of the racing - before the jumps season starts to get really
serious - and working with a specially hired team to put together
the infrastructure behind my soon-to-be-released new service Racing
Angles.
I can't remember the last time I was so excited. For the first time
ever I'll be able to bring interested racing punters the very same
information I was once employed by bookmakers to provide for them.
And it goes without saying that HRF readers will be the very first
people to be offered access to my Racing Angles service.
I anticipate a lot of interest in the new service. Quite a few
people in the know are aware that the three-year waiting period on
my tools has passed and that the gag is now off - permanently.
They've been waiting to see what kind of move I'm going to make and
word is beginning to get round that something is in the offing.
Read all about it right here - FIRST
I can't be entirely sure at this stage but the new Racing Angles
service might have to be operated on a first-come-first served
basis. There's been some rumours going around on a few of the
Internet forums and my publisher is already fielding calls from
punters expressing interest in getting onboard.
That's why I wanted to give you all a preliminary heads-up today. I
wanted to tell you that, whatever the level of interest from
'outside', whatever it says on the forums, whatever else you might
have heard from elsewhere, NOBODY gets a place on the Racing Angles
service before HRF readers have been given a chance to get onboard.
NOBODY - and that's a personal promise from me to you. HRF readers
will get first bags on what might turn out to be a limited number
of slots.
Right now I'm off for a meeting with some of the key background
players helping me put this project together. The website is built
and we're not very far away from launching. We want to get Racing
Angles up and running for the meat of the jumps season.
But before I go I want to tell you that next week I'll be bringing
you the findings of yet another tool I am now free to use again - a
tool that statistically analyses trainers and the performance of
their strings in ways that you will not find anywhere else. I think
you'll like the truly unique betting angles this statistical data
and analysis provides - I'm already looking at two specific
trainers in a very different light and I expect to make serious
money following my findings in the next few months. Join me next
week to find out more.
Until next time, be lucky.
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