Directory of Past issues - September 2011 6th September - Smart approaches to Stoute's runners in September 14th September - Playing Galileo's pattern progeny for profit... 22nd September - Initial splits in the Cambridgeshire field... 28th September - It's that Twiston-Davies time of year RETURN TO MAIN MENU Good afternoon, friends, In today's Horse Racing Focus.... Six months into the turf season.... Making hay with Stoute's runners in September.... Modun does the business.... Music to my ears... Six months into the turf season.... It's the time of year when the going conditions start to get softer and the midsummer horses make way for those more suited to back-end conditions. And when we reach the month of September we should also take note of the fact that the turf season is almost six months old. For some yards this time of year marks the start of a natural decline. Horses which have been on the go since March - and maybe longer if a stint on the all-weather preceded the start of the turf season - start to go over the top. They've given of their best and they're approaching that stage of the year when they need a rest. That decline will be seen in the wins to runs figures produced by some yards in the next few weeks. But in other yards - for whatever reason - we can expect September to be business as usual. And the Sir Michael Stoute yard is one such operation. Recent tradition suggests September is a good time of the season to be taking note of the runners Stoute sends to the racecourse. Taken as a total over the last three Septembers (2008, 2009 and 2010) Stoute's yard has operated at a 20% winning strike rate - a figure that denotes a quality or noteworthy performance in the Pullen handbook of turf betting. Certainly a performance that renders his runners of betting interest. However, that excellent and sustained strike rate - in combination with the price Stoute's runners tend to be sent off at by the market - isn't sufficient to represent a mechanical route to betting profits. Not by a long chalk. Had you backed all 195 of the runners he's sent out in September over the last 3 seasons you'd have latched onto 39 winners - but to level stakes you'd be looking at a deficit of 21.5 points. The market is obviously very aware of all Stoute's runners. He's got a long and established winning track-record. The fact that he been crowned Champion Trainer ten times testifies to the quality of his yard and the performances its inmates consistently produce. As such his runners are always of interest to the market - and plenty of his runners get backed into the kind of prices that make it impossible to play all the horses at level stakes and still come out on top. Making hay with Stoute's runners in September.... The route to profit with Stoute's September runners lies in observing the overall statistical record and working within it - with the objective of identifying micro-trends that can and do lead to betting profits when supported to level stakes. I've spent the last few hours crunching those numbers and analyzing the results. Here's what you want to be taking note of and, if the mood takes you, applying in the market over the next few weeks: Take the counter-intuitive view when it comes to class - Sir Michael Stoute is synonymous with quality. Punters tend to think of him in relation to his big winners in pattern class events. But like any other trainer he has a yard that contains lesser horses and younger horses still at an early stage of development. And in September it pays to focus the spotlight on horses contesting races at the lower end of the racing scale. Focusing on Class 1 runners - for example - found 7 winners from 35 runners in September over the previous 3 years. And they produced just a negligible profit. Focusing on runners in Class 5 events, on the other hand, produced 16 winning bets from 48 (at 33.3%) and a level stakes profit for backers amounting to 25.8 profits. Maybe the market ignores or undervalues his runners in lower class events. September is a good time to think about taking advantage. Play the 3-year-olds the right way - the stats reveal that in recent years - at this time of year - its runners who form a part of the current classic generation in his yard that come to the fore and produce the biggest proportion of winners. You could play them blind. The last 96 3-year-old Stoute runners in September generated 21 wins between them and registered a level stakes surplus of 4.8 points. But the stats suggest halving the bets and more than doubling the profits by focusing bets on the 3-year-old runners contesting non-handicap races. Betting that way produced 13 winners from 40 runners (a strike rate of 32.5%) and a level stales profit of 12.5 profits. Another approach with which backers have met success - is to concentrate on 3- and 4-year-old runners racing on the turf (meaning you discount runners down to contest races on the all-weather) who have raced 7 times or less on the flat (turf or all-weather combined). Focusing on that group of runners produced 61 bets over the last 3 seasons - 15 won at a rate of 24.6% and the level stakes profits were acceptable at 17.7 points. An approach the more selective punter can adopt - as we don't all want to be betting every day (striking perhaps dozens of bets per week). If you're a punter whose temperament is suited to waiting for good - but less frequent - opportunities to play the percentages then consider this: Stoute's 2- and 3-year-old colts strike 40% of the time when returning to the track off a break of between 6 weeks (42 days) and 10 weeks (70 days). The angle doesn't produce many bets - just 10 in the last 3 years - but the 21 point profit that group of freshened-up runners have produced over the period makes it well worth your while watching out for them in the entries. Modun does the business.... Speaking of Sir Michael Stoute's runners regular readers will recall that I mentioned his horse Modun as one to watch - in an HRF issue I wrote just after the Ebor where the 4-year-old had finished 4th despite being disadvantaged by a draw on the wrong side. At the time I said I could see him winning at 12f - the trip in the Ebor had appeared to be just a  little too far him - and he did it a little sooner than expected on the all-weather at Kempton Park on Saturday in a Group 3 race. Granted, the price wasn't much to write home about - he was sent off at 2/1 - but I still believe there are a few points of profit worth playing for with the son of King's Best on the turf. He's rated 105 and nothing has changed since his impressive run from a poor draw in the Ebor. On the evidence of that run he stands every chance of taking a decent handicap - maybe better - if he gets his trip (10f-12f). But do bear one thing in mind: Modun requires good or better ground to deliver his best. He might not get the opportunity to run on that kind of surface this season now the ground is getting more juice in it. In which case I'd advise keeping note of him for next term (assuming he isn't crated up and mailed overseas for a career on sand surfaces which - admittedly - there is some talk of). Music to my ears... And now for something completely different... A quick word before I go today on a winner I landed last night. If you happened to stumble upon BBC2 around 10 o'clock you'd have seen lots of well attired young people milling about and looking very pleased with themselves at the Mercury Music Prize awards. There were plenty of cheers and hugs when Jools Holland announced PJ Harvey as the winner. And from the comfort of my bunker I was cheering too, having backed Harvey at odds of 9/4 as recommended by 'Insider' tipster Mr X last month. The Insider service has a 10 year winning record covering all sports as well as the 'Specials' markets on the likes of the Mercury, the Turner arts prize, Big Brother and the Nobel Peace Prize. Hell, I'm even paying attention to the Irish Election campaign after Mr X tipped Michael Higgins to win @ 5/1... a price which has since been chopped to odds-on @ 8/13. The latest tips are for the Rugby World Cup starting on Friday. Check out The Insider and view that impressive 10 year track record for yourself here... www.shopatoxonpress.com/INSOPEM65/ Until next time, be lucky.

Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus....

• How do we squeeze a profit from Galileo's progeny?
• Getting it right with Galileo's juveniles....
• How best to play Galileo's 3-year-old progeny....
• How to profit from Galileo's older pattern runners....

How do we squeeze a profit from Galileo's progeny?

Galileo - the winner of the 2001 Epsom Derby - became the 2nd son of
Sadler's Wells - after Montjeu - to sire 100 winners of stakes races
when 4-year-old Opera Gal struck in the August Stakes (a listed
race) at Windsor recently.

With 140 pattern race winners from 910 triers since the start of
2005 his progeny provide plenty of top-level contenders for punters
to shoot at. He's had 131 runners-up and 75 third-place runners in
Pattern events over the same period - making him a potential source
of appeal for each-way and multiple players too. 

Given his record Galileo is clearly going to be influential
contributor to the breed. His progeny will no doubt be winning
Pattern class events across Europe and beyond for
many years to coming - barring mishap.

But the market is well and truly onto that fact - a large proportion
of his Pattern class contenders are sent off at short prices by the
market. Backing them all to level stakes is simply not a viable
option - leading, as it does, to a big deficit in the betting bank.

What we need here is a method of identifying the rich seams of
profit within the wider record - enabling us to focus our bets on
the 'sweet spots' in his record which DO lead to or stand a fighting
chance of producing a level stakes betting profit over
the long-term...

Statistical analysis is that method. I recently crunched the numbers
on Galileo's pattern class runners... his 2-year-olds, his 3-year-
olds and his runners aged 4 and over on the turf since the beginning
of 2005.

Here's what that analysis revealed.... I think you'll find it useful
going forward.

Getting it right with Galileo's juveniles....

Boasting a strike rate of 22.7% with his 2-year-old pattern runners
(30 winners from the last 132 runners) Galileo is bordering on
prolific in this area. Backing them blind dos not lead to profit.
But there are a couple of methods you can adopt to secure a
profitable outcome to level stakes....

• Consider backing Galileo juveniles over 7f or 8f on good or
  good to soft ground at Leopardstown when they appear in the months
  of June, July and August. Seven of the last 10 to meet that
  criterion have won - producing a 6.5 point profit to level stakes.
  
  
• Alternatively, think about backing Galileo juveniles over 7f
  or 8f on good or good to soft ground in any month of the year when
  they face no more than 10 opponents. The last 42 to race with those
  circumstances and conditions produced 17 winners and a 20 point
  profit to level stakes.
  
  
• Adding another filter to that last angle and excluding all
  debutants and horses running off a break of 6 weeks (42 days or
  more) has produced 16 winners from the last 35 qualifiers and a
  level stakes profit of 25.5 points.

How best to play Galileo's 3-year-old progeny....

Galileo is not quite as prolific with his 3-year-old runners in
pattern races (Group 1, Group 2, Group 3 and Listed races) as he is
with his juveniles - but that doesn't mean we can't adopt angles
that have a track-record of producing profit with those runners.
Here's what the stats suggest bearing mind with his classic
generation runners:

• Galileo 3-year olds go well fresh - betting all runners
  returning off a break from the racecourse of 42 days (6 weeks) or
  more has produced 28 winning bets from 140 runners at 20% -
  delivering a level stakes profit of 37.88 points.
  
  
• It pays to catch Galileo's 3-year-old runners early in the
  season - runners in May go in at 23.2%. The last 95 of Galileo's 3-
  year-old progeny to run in pattern class races in the month of May
  generated 22 winners and delivered a 33.8 point profit to level
  stakes.
  
  
• Think straight - another little angle that the stats suggest
  is worth noting revolves around the type of tack Galileo's progeny
  are running on. The lion's share of his 3-year-old runners contest
  races at trips which require them to run around round a bend. There
  aren't too many racecourses offering the opportunity to run a 10f on
  the straight, for example. But his 3-year-old contestants are worth
  consideration when running on a straight track - whatever the trip.
  The last 47 to try have produced 10 winners - at 21.3% - and profits
  of 47 points to level stakes. This is a method to apply at the
  Curragh and at Newmarket's Rowley course - those tracks have
  produced 9 of the 10 winners (Newbury producing the other) at trips
  of 8f to 10f.

How to profit from Galileo's older pattern runners....

Galileo is not as prolific with his 3-year-olds as he is with his
juvenile progeny. And that trend continues with his older runners.
Over the last 4 seasons they've gone in at a rate of 14.5% - with
his 256 pattern class runners on the turf producing 37 winners. But
that doesn't mean we can't find a route to profit from our best on
his progeny. The stats suggest a couple of angles well worth
considering....

• The courses you need to bear in mind and underline - Ascot and
  York are both premier tracks on the British circuit - exactly the
  kind of tracks where you might expect the progeny of a top sire to
  excel. So you'll appreciate my surprise when I discovered that
  Galileo's older runners have a record of just 2 wins from 44
  runs at those tracks. Instead you should focus your betting activity
  on his older runners at Goodwood, Sandown, Leopardstown and
  Longchamp. His pattern class veterans certainly like those venues.
  The last 65 runners at those courses have produced 17 winners at
  26.1% - and a handsome 64 points worth of betting profit. That's
  something worth knowing - and something you can capitalize on
  going forward.
  
  
• Hit his progeny at exactly the right stage of their
  development - I'm not sure I can explain exactly why this next angle
  works so well but the stats don't lie (though sometimes it can feel
  like they deceive) and I report my findings in a spirit of openness
  if not full understanding. Looking through the stat sheets it's
  blindingly clear that Galileo's older progeny are of most betting
  interest when they've had between 5 and 8 races. The last 65 runners
  to go to post with that level of experience under their belts
  generated 16 wins and a 34 point profit. Catch them off that 15-42
  day break from the track that I talked about earlier and the betting
  record reads 11 winners from just 34 bets - producing a 27.4 point
  profit. That's first-class intelligence to go to war with.

Okay, we're approaching the end of the British flat season - at
least the end is in sight - but that doesn't mean these useful and
profitable angles can't be store and put to one side for future use.
I'm not expecting Galileo to stop producing high-class winners
anytime soon.

For more information, go to...

A more comprehensive and in-depth statistical analysis of Galileo's
progeny recently featured in my Racing Angles service.

If this kind of analysis adds potency to your race betting then
you'll find a lot to like about Racing Angles. In addition to
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and over the jumps - I crunch the racing numbers and analyse the
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Until next time, be lucky.

Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus....

• Michael Jarvis will be missed....
• Ominous stats for Philip Robinson....
• Making initial splits in the Cambridgeshire field....

Michael Jarvis will be missed....

Sad news from Newmarket this week with the death of unassuming and
widely-liked trainer, Michael Jarvis. I associate the man most
strongly with Rakti - a multiple Group 1 winner over 8f and 10f back
around 2003/04 - a horse whose personality was such that someone
(I'm not certain whether or not it was Jarvis himself) considered
him an animal who would be just as happy living wild and eating
berries as he was racing.

Of course, the other big racing personality with whom Jarvis was
closely associated was Philip Robinson - his long-time partner in
arms and stable jockey. Theirs was a very successful collaboration -
one which endured through the years. And the success of their
relationship was reflected in Robinson's performance figures season-
on-season.

The table below shows Robinson's record on all the horses he rode
from the beginning of 2001 through to the end of 2010:

Now take a look at his record just riding for Michael Jarvis over
the exact same period:

It's clear from comparing and contrasting the two tables that
Robinson consistently performed better on Jarvis horses - year on
year. The Jarvis horses produced the sweet spot in his overall
performance figures. Over the entire period 2001 - 2010 Jarvis
provided 67.2% of Robinson's winning horses whilst providing 50% of
his overall rides.

Kind readers amongst you who have continued to show an interest in
my work over the last few years might recall that I wrote about this
Jarvis/Robinson phenomenon in this column way back in August 2008.

At the time I wrote:

'Phillip Robinson gets most of his rides from Michael Jarvis.... to
date this year Robinson has ridden 140 horses for Jarvis - winning
on 37 of them. That equates to a strike rate of 26.4%. But it's
Robinson's results on rides outside the Jarvis yard that have got my
antenna twitching a bit. This season Robinson has taken 80 rides on
horses not trained by Jarvis. He's won on just 6 of them - at a
lowly strike rate of 7.5%. Robinson is at his very best when riding
for Jarvis. But when playing away from home his performances drop
off significantly. It might pay to bear that in mind. When riding
for an outside yard Robinson's mounts can be opposed with some
confidence.'

Ominous stats for Philip Robinson....

Unfortunately for Philip Robinson the stats - and the conclusions we
could extrapolate from them - were bang on the money. And his
performance figures for this year simply compound the impression we
got in 2008.

Michael Jarvis - owing to his ill health - had to retire back in
March this year. He handed over the reins at his Kremlin House yard
to his then assistant Roger Varian. I'm not aware of the background
circumstances that led to Varian's decision to start putting Neil
Callan in the plate for the yard's runners - or why Robinson's
association with the yard appears to have come to an end at the time
of Varian's ascension to the throne. But come to an end it has.

Robinson hasn't ridden a single horse for the Varian yard this year.
Instead, the lion's share of Robinson's appearances on the track
this year has been on the back of horses trained by Clive Brittain.

Brittain and Robinson have an association that goes back a decade -
but it has never been a prolific partnership as the table below
(showing the results of their collaborations) highlights:

After something of a hiatus stretching from 2004 to the beginning of
this year - Robinson has taken a lot more rides from Brittain - 132
to date this year. But the reunion hasn't precipitated a change in
their combined fortunes. Robinson has ridden just 10 winners for
the yard at 7.6% - and if things continue as they have Robinson is
going to record his worst annual performance figures for a decade.

Looking through the stats for the year - and I don't say this very
often - I can suggest no way of approaching his rides right now with
a view to making a profit. Philip Robinson's stats appear to be in
some kind of terminal decline. Having lost the Jarvis connection he
must now earn his bread on what - back in 2008 - I termed 'away'
rides. And the signs - as I suggested at the time - do not encourage
the view that he's going to find a way back to the heights his
career hit previously.

Making initial splits in the Cambridgeshire field....

The Cambridgeshire will be run at Newmarket on Saturday. It's a huge
handicap - and a huge betting heat - run at the catch-weight trip of
9f. The race invariably attracts a huge field. Over the last 11
years the field size has averaged 26 runners.

Nobody wants to be investing the kind of time required to go through
all those form records with a fine toothcomb - so what we need is
some effective way of splitting the field and reducing the number of
runners we need to focus on.

I recently upgraded the dataset that I use for a lot of my research
- and I now have data going back some 11 years for the flat.
Yesterday I took a look at all the renewals of the Cambridgeshire
run over that period and awarded a Performance Rating (my own
rating that seeks to combine what was achieved on the formbook with
what was achieved against the clock) to every runner to take part in
the race over the period.

Having done that - and isolated the best 22 performances over the
period where the individual horses concerned scored a Performance
Rating of 58 or more - I got down to figuring out what (if anything
at all) these horses had in common.

The objective was to try and identify some rational method of
splitting Saturday's field into 'live' contenders and the not-so-
live. And here's what I found....

• Nineteen of the 22 (or 86%) of the best performers in the race
  over the last 11 years were allotted a weight that meant they went
  to post wearing race cloth number 1 to 17. That' a pretty strong
  stat and - for the percentage players out there - it offers an
  effective way of making an initial split in his year's
  Cambridgeshire field.
  
  
• Nineteen of our 22 top-rated performers over the last 11 years
  were 3- to 5-years old - and that's the age band to concentrate on
  this Saturday.

Something else to think about.... John Gosden produced 2 of those
top 22 performers over the last 11 years. This year he saddles
Questioning.

And consider this....Richard Hughes has a knack of going well in
this race. He rode 3 of the 22 top performers. This year he will be
onboard Cry Fury for Roger Charlton.

P.S.

Last Saturday was a good day for my Racing Angles readers. My pre-
race stats pointed to a shortlist of 4 horses in the Ayr Gold Cup -
including subsequent winner, Our Jonathan and 5th placed Pastoral
Player (who earned a place pay-out from most bookies).

Both were trading at 20/1 when highlighted last Friday afternoon. Of
course, I can't guarantee that kind of performance week-on-week but
if you think your betting can benefit from stats you just don't get
anywhere else then consider taking advantage of a Free Trial to the
Racing Angles service today - no strings, no obligations.  Just
click here....

Until next time, be lucky.

Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus....

• It's that Twiston-Davies time of year....
• Playing the yard's chasers....
• Playing the yard's hurdlers....

It's that Twiston-Davies time of year....

I don't think it's any great racing secret that Nigel Twiston-Davies
is in the habit of hitting the ground running at the start of the
jumps season proper. Over the last 3 seasons October has been a
fertile month for his Naunton yard.

Excluding bumper horses the yard's 222 October runners yielded 43
winners at a strike-rate of 19.3%. Level stakes profits amount to
102.6 points - but that figure is heavily skewed by a 66/1 winner
over the hurdles. The bottom line is that there are traditionally
plenty of winners to play for and decent levels of profits to latch
onto - but don't go relying on 66/1 shots going in year-on-year!

Twiston-Davies clearly knows how to get his string firing early-on
and - as we approach the end of September - it's a very good time to
start thinking about which of his October runners you want to be
paying most attention to and maybe targeting from a betting
perspective.

There's an important change to bear in mind this year. Paddy Brennan
is no longer the yard jockey. He went freelance in April amidst
mutterings about blood being thicker than water - taken in some
quarters as a reference to the opportunities given to Sam Twiston-
Davies by his father.

Yard politics is none of our business and I've no interest in it.
But Brennan was a key factor in the yard's achievements over the
last few years and he was responsible for riding 26 October winners
for the yard over the last 3 seasons - at a shade over 20% and
producing a level stakes profit of 30.4 points. Sam Twiston-Davies
must now replicate those kinds of figures.

Playing the yard's chasers....

The stats suggest a few lines of attack that could bear fruit with
the yard's chasers during October....

• Whatever methods Twiston-Davies adopts in his preparation of
  racehorses one thing is for sure - they are fit and ready to go out
  and win at the start of the a new season. Don't be shy about betting
  chasers on their 1st run of the campaign. Fourteen of the last 57 to
  go to post in October off a break of 100 days or more won their
  races - and delivered a level stakes profit of 24.6 points.
  
  
• You can also rely on the yard's younger inexperienced chasers
  to perform. The last 31 chasers to go to post in October aged 5-, 6-
  , or 7-years-old and having contested no more than 2 races over
  fences produced 7 winners and a 9.6 point profit.
  
  
• The yards 'prime' chasers are well worth focusing on at this
  time of year. Chasers going to post in October aged 8-, 9- or 10-
  years-old have produced 15 winners from 55 runners in the last 3
  seasons - and generated profits of 20.8 points when backed to level
  stakes.
  
  
• Both Cheltenham and Aintree host meetings during October - and
  on the evidence of the stats I'd be targeting the latter meeting
  rather than the former. The last 19 of the Twiston-Davies chasers to
  travel to Cheltenham produced just a single winner. But Aintree has
  been a much happier hunting ground for the yard's chasers - the last
  12 sent to the Liverpool meeting produced 5 wins between them.
  
  
• If I was to suggest just one angle of attack for the yard's
  chasers in October I'd focus on the 8-, 9- and 10-year-olds in
  handicap events with 9 runners or more. Twiston-Davies has a pretty
  good record of preparing horses of that age for and targeting them
  at that specific type of event.  The last 29 such chasers he's sent
  to the racecourse have produced 10 winners - and backed to level
  stakes they delivered a profit of 28.75 points.

Playing the yard's hurdlers....

For the purposes of this analysis I excluded the yard's 66/1 winner
(at least the points of profit) from the analysis. The result
represents an aberration in terms of price. On one hand it unduly
unbalances the profit and loss figures. On another it serves to
confuse the effort to extract meaningful extrapolations from the
data. It is best ignored.

The stats offer some interesting guidance when it comes to focusing
on the Twiston-Davies hurdlers in October....

• It is worth noting that the Twiston-Davies hurdlers - as is
  the case with his chasers - appear to be better suited to running in
  bigger fields rather than small. His 31 October hurdle runners in
  fields of 9 or less produced just 3 wins. His 74 runners in fields
  of 10 or more produced 16 winners. Having taken out the proceeds of
  our 66/1 winner the profit from the 16 winners still amounts to some
  33 points.
  
  
• Uttoxeter is farmed by the yard year-on-year - the last 14
  hurdlers sent to race at Uttoxeter's October meeting have produced 7
  winners and a 29 point profit. NOTE: Consider backing all the yard's
  HURDLE and CHASE runners at the Uttoxeter meeting. The last 21
  runners there (over fences or the smaller flights) have produced 10
  winners and 36.6 points of profit. The yard has done reasonably
  well at Cheltenham too - winning 4 hurdle races at the October
  meeting over the last 3 years.
  
  
• Another approach that holds water on the stats - is to focus
  on the yard's runners in just the Class 4 and Class 5 hurdle races.
  The last 55 such runners have produced 14 winners and 36.9 points
  worth of profit (after the proceeds from the 66/1 winner has been
  discounted).

There are only 31 days in October but the stats suggest there are
plenty of methods you can use to eke out profit from the Twiston-
Davies yard in that time. I'll be back with more next week.

Until then, be lucky.