Directory of Past issues - September 2009

1st September - Why I can't wait to see Kieren Fallon back in the saddle

8th September - How to cash-in on the greed of the average punter

15th September - How to land a 16/1 winner

30th September - Sorting silk purses from pigs ears - plus four free reports

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1st September 2009

Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus...

• The return of the old fox...
  
• Who's the King of the castle?...

The return of the old fox...

Assuming there are no hiccups or unforeseen hitches then Friday
will see the return to competitive racing of the old fox - Kieren
Fallon. Personally speaking I can't wait to see him back in the
saddle because - to my mind - he's quite simply the best in the
business. And I think he'll prove conclusively over the next 12
months that remains the case.

Fallon's problems have been well documented. He was banned from
race-riding for two years in October 2007 - the day after a
brilliant ride on Dylan Thomas to win the Arc in Paris - after
previously testing positive for cocaine use.

Lesser men might well have called it a day and faded into
retirement - content with a legacy of Championship wins, classic
victories and a long string of big race triumphs. But Fallon is
different. Something deep inside this enigmatic genius continues to
burn and to burn brightly. There was never any doubt that Fallon
would be back and that he would mean business.

His two years in exile have not been wasted. A punishing exercise
regime has produced a fitter, stronger and, if rumours are to be
believed, happier Fallon than the hunted/haunted figure we saw
toward the end of his days with the Ballydoyle operation. And
Fallon has kept himself in the game - riding out on the Newmarket
gallops early each morning for Michael Stoute, William Haggas, Ed
Dunlop, Luca Cumani and others. Fallon is as ready as he can be.

Who's the King of the castle?...

Whilst Fallon's been out of the game his position at the head of
the jockey standings has been taken by Ryan Moore - who also
replaced Fallon as stable jockey at Micheal Stoute' s yard when
Fallon headed to Ballydoyle.

With Fallon's return to the saddle, Moore faces his most concerted
challenge yet for supremacy in the weighing room. The 2010 Flat
Jockeys Championship promises to be very different to the
procession we've watched unfold this season.

While not seeking to denigrate the very driven Ryan Moore (who is a
fine jockey) or diminish his achievements, nobody is making a
serious effort to challenge him for the title. Nobody is taking him
on and full-on fighting for it. It's Moore's to go out and win if
he wants it - and he clearly does.

Next season will be very different. Fallon wants what he sees as
'his' title back. Moore is no pushover and, I suspect, no big
respector of reputations. In Moore's mind I fancy he sees the title
as 'his'. Great stuff. The stage is set. All being well we're going
to be treated to a tooth and nail fight for the title between the
old fox and the young prince.

There's been a lot of talk in the press lately about the flat code
and what it needs to attract and maintain public interest. A full
on fight for the title between two highly talented and ferociously
driven jockeys from different generations can't help but spice
things up and add provide compelling theatre throughout the season.

David Walsh, writing in this week's Sunday Times, was out dining
with Fallon recently. Walsh asked Fallon whether he should back him
to win next year's Championship. Fallon replied, 'With every penny
you've got.' It wasn't tongue in cheek.

Whilst I'm not going to be betting the farm, I am taking some of
the 10/3 that you can currently get about Fallon taking the 2010
Championship. Sure, my money's going to be tied up for 12 months
but it's my considered and reasoned opinion that the 10/3 is going
to be looking like a very big price this time next year.

You can check out the odds on that 2010 Championship market here:

http://odds.sportsxtra.co.uk/horse-racing/flat-jockeys-championship/

Until next time, be lucky.

8th September 2009

Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus...

• It doesn't have to be rocket science...
  
• Oppose the man who rides most winners...
  
• Your most profitable winter ever?...

Keep it simple...

To win on the horses over the long term you need a portfolio of
consistently profitable angles and approaches - whether you are a
traditional backer of horses or a layer of them on the betting
exchanges.

In practice this means dispensing with the scattergun approach to
betting and focusing instead on identifying the patterns and trends
within the sport that the wider market (the people you are betting
against) are missing out on - and then making sure you are
disciplined enough to fully capitalize on the edge your observations
secure for you.

Easy said but not so easy done. However, these profitable angles and
approaches needn't be complex. They don't necessarily require you to
be a mathematical genius or be in possession of highly developed
telepathic powers. Being a profitable racing punter doesn't have to
be rocket science. As is the case in most areas of life, keeping it
simple can take you a long, long way.

Oppose the man who rides most winners...

Given that serial National Hunt champion jockey, A P McCoy, rides
more winners than any other rider on the circuit year in and year
out - it might seem slightly counter-intuitive to focus on opposing
his rides. But betting exchange layers would be well served to do
exactly that - when those rides go off at 4/1 or shorter.

Here's the thinking... AP McCoy rides plenty of winners... well over
1000 since 2003. Now there's one thing your average racing punter
likes to latch on to... and that's a winner. There are a large
number of average punters out there who see the most famous name in
jump racing... AP McCoy... booked to ride a horse (any horse) and
you've literally got to wrestle them to the floor to stop them
getting on.

But these legions of average punters are betting without any sense
of discrimination. There's little, if any, form study. Even less
thought. Instead they're going in blind on the jockey name alone.
Tens of thousands of punters nailing their cash to the AP McCoy mast
and forcing the price to contract to the point where the horse is
overbet and overvalued - its short price overestimating its true
chances of winning the race.

The delusions of the crowd create opportunities...

When value diminishes or disappears for the backer... this presents
a golden profit opportunity for the layer. And short-price McCoy
mounts are definitely just such a profit opportunity.

Take a look at the table below. It shows the results you'd have
achieved if you'd layed every AP McCoy mount in specific Starting
Price bands to a £100 level stake since 1st January 2003 to August
this year. My database is about a month out of date at the moment
but the figures below illustrate the obvious general trend
nevertheless.

It makes for pretty exciting reading for layers. Had you layed every
McCoy runner priced 4/1 or less since 2003 you'd have lost on the
1036 winners he's had in that group of horses - but overall you'd be
up to the tune of £32,276.

Even if you just wanted to focus on his Evens and under rides you'd
have made a £3,379 profit over the period to a £100 level stake
despite the fact that McCoy won on 58.85% of those rides.

What these figures tell us is that large numbers of McCoy's ride are
indeed overvalued and overbet by the wider market - and are well
worth laying - almost as blindly as the wider market backs them.

If you wanted to narrow your focus a little then you could
concentrate solely on McCoy's 4/1 or less rides for Jonjo O'Neil
where the figures illustrated in the table below tell a very similar
story:

Despite some very impressive strike rates in every price band,
McCoy's short-price rides for Jonjo O'Neil still produce some very
impressive profits for layers.

Looking at these figures inversely tells us in no uncertain terms
just how difficult it is for backers to turn a profit on McCoy
runners - and just how much the traditional bookmakers must love
those punters for repeatedly and consistently trying to do so.
No wonder bookmakers drive Aston Martins while the great majority of
average punters might struggle to find the coin to fill the petrol
tank on one.

Course for McCoy's short price horses...

I know plenty of you don't follow the racing full-time and won't
always be in a position to capitalise on every McCoy short price
runner. If you're looking for a very narrow focus you might want to
concentrate on McCoy's 4/1 and shorter rides at the following
courses where the larger trend prevails on a smaller scale:

So there you have it. Laying short-price McCoy mounts - be it all of
them, those he rides for Jonjo O'Neil or those he rides at certain
courses - is an angle that produces consistent profit over the long-
term.

Plenty of exchange layers will be gearing up for a profitable winter
- many of them laying McCoy's rides at 4/1 or less blindly. Looking
at the consolidated monthly results since 2003 it's not hard to see
why:

Despite the very healthy win strike rates achieved by McCoy it is
the layers who consistently walk away with the profits because the
horses he rides are generally falsely priced - purely because of his
popularity with punters.

Laying short price McCoy runners is a useful strategy to have in
your betting armoury. Whether you incorporate it into your betting
approach or not is your decision - but it's there as and when you
need it.

I see no signs of this golden profit opportunity for layers
disappearing any time soon. The average punter loves a winner - and
will continue to chase them blindly. Meaning the smart and
contrarian punter prepared to lay horses on the exchanges can make
hay and plenty of it.

Until next time, be lucky.

15th September 2009

Good afternoon, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus...

• When you back a big-priced winner...
  
• The early warning signs...
  
• The lessons we take away with us...
  
• Strike in the Ayr Gold Cup...

When you back a big-priced winner...

Backing a big-priced winner... at 20/1... 25/1... or bigger is a
special feeling. It's not something you forget. When it happens it
sticks in the mind for years. You can enjoy the experience of taking
it to the bookie and chinning him time and time again.

These big-priced winners become special to us punters. I can still
clearly remember scraping myself off the ceiling when Mudawin got up
to the win the 2006 Ebor after I'd backed it at 100/1 on the betting
exchanges. Turning to my race-watching companion that afternoon - a
friend's 10-year-old daughter patiently waiting for the racing to
finish so that she could switch over to watch Spongebob Squarepants
- I clenched my fists and roared like a wounded (and possibly half-
demented) lion.

Now I'm not going to win any prizes for my influence on kids but
social niceties and conventions go out of the window when the racing
vindicates our thinking and rewards us handsomely in the pocket.
Such occasions demand to be savoured and celebrated to the full.

I know that quite a few of you, like me, were feeling the same way
about Brave Prospector on Friday when he came home running on strong
to take the Class 2 Frank Whittle Partnership Handicap - beating
Castles in the Air a length and a quarter and Jimmy Styles by an
additional head.

Brave Prospector's official SP was 16/1 but I know many of you were
on at the 20/1 Brave Prospector opened at on the boards and that
quite a few of you backed the horse at prices in the upper 20s and
lower 30s on the betting exchanges earlier in the day. Happy days.

The early warning signs...

I highlighted Brave Prospector as a horse worth following back in
August after the horse ran out of stall 6 (a far from ideal stall
when compared to the stalls the principal finishers started in) to
finish 7th in the Stewards' Cup after becoming detached from the
pack on the stands side and running much of his race from a position
well off the lead. His rattling finishing effort to get back into
contention suggested he might go even better in a future race with
things more his own way.

At the time I said: 'Having looked closely at his form over the last
couple of days, it's safe to conclude that the horse acts on good
surfaces.... 6 furlongs is definitely his best trip. Five of the top
6 ratings he's received (on a ratings service I use) have been
achieved at that trip...

... Looking at performances where Brave Prospector finished in the
top quarter of the field also reveals that the horse needs to be
fresh to run well. Brave Prospector is of particular interest when
he's returning to the racecourse after a break of just 3 weeks or
less. When this criterion is met Brave Prospector has form figures
1442 - just about the best 4 performances he's put in. The colt
ceases to be of interest after 6 weeks off the track. His record
after breaks of more than 6 weeks is poor - 000 - three duck eggs.'

The next time Brave Prospector came out he ran in a 5 furlong
handicap at York on 18th August. I didn't back him because he was
running at a distance too short for him. He duly struggled to stay
with the leaders and weakened before the race was halfway over -
finishing 16th of the 17th runners and priced at a shortish 8/1.

At Doncaster on Friday... Just over 3 weeks since the run at York...
Brave Prospector had the trip, ground and race circumstances he
needs and was an absolute steal at the prices he traded at. Those of
us who knew what we were looking for, and who were willing to
forgive the horse a poor effort at a trip he hasn't got the raw
speed to handle, were amply rewarded.

Lesson we can learn here...

Little victories like this remind of some important principles we
should base our betting on...

It pays to keep the faith - both in the horse of interest and in
your own judgement - and to take a mid- to long-term view to making
a profit from a horse. Nothing in racing works in clockwork
sequence. There are times when you have to wait for a horse,
conditions and circumstances to come together.

When you've done the work and figured out what you believe to be a
horse's ideal conditions and circumstances then don't be distracted
by any poor results your horse achieves in races where those ideal
conditions and circumstances are absent. Ignore that form and wait
for the right time to strike.

Friday is an excellent case in point. Most punters would have been
put off Brave Prospector by that 16th of 17 performance last time
out - completely ignoring the fact that the horse had already
demonstrated in his form record that 5 furlongs is too much on the
sharp side for him to produce his best.

Days like Friday also remind us never to be put off by a price.
Plenty of punters never back a big-priced horse because they feel
the big price is telling them that the horse can't win. But, if
you've done your homework and you trust your judgment, rather than
being out off by a big price instead you should embrace it and lap
it up like the cat's cream.

Look at the big price as your reward for taking the time to get an
edge over the rest of the market - the majority of which is lazy,
uninformed and driven by crowd-think. If you never back a big price
horse then you'll never experience the buzz of a big price winner. 

What about Striking Spirit?

Striking Spirit was the other horse I flagged up for attention after
the Stewards' Cup. At the time I said: 'Nicholls appears to be
working the magic with Striking Spirit. In 7 runs for Nicholls,
Striking Spirit has won twice, finished 7th of 26 in the Stewards'
Cup and 7th of 26 in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot. His four best
speed ratings have also been achieved during his time with Nicholls.

It's worth noting that whilst the horse has not disgraced itself on
good going, and has demonstrated it can handle cut, there's a
suspicion the horse might be at its most comfortable on firmer
ground. Striking Spirit has raced 5 times on surfaces officially
described as firmer than good - winning three of the races and
finishing 7th of 26 in the Wokingham in another.'

In two races since then Striking Spirit has finished 7th of 17 in
the 6f Great St Wilfred at Ripon where he was 14/1. Then last week
he finished 9th of 22 in the Portland over 6f at the Doncaster
meeting where he was 25/1. The horse has yet to repay my faith.

However, Striking Spirit has an entry in the Ayr Gold Cup on
Saturday and I'll be backing my judgement again and giving him
another go - hopefully the ground will come up on the firmer side of
good. If he runs then he'll go off at a good price and should be
backed each-way.

Brave Prospector also has an entry in the race and I'll be hoping he
runs too. He's a horse in top form, he'll be racing off less than a
three week break and over his favoured distance - as long as he
isn't a silly short price I'll be backing him to finish the season
with a bang too.

Until next time, be lucky.

30th September 2009

Good morning, friends,

In today's Horse Racing Focus...

• Sort the silk purses from the pigs' ears...
  
• Four reports you can download FREE right now...

Sort the silk purses from the pigs' ears...

As a kid I was a bit of a Smart Alec. It would get on my dad's
nerves. He'd point at me and say to my mum, 'We don't need any
bloody encyclopedias as long as we've got him. Because he knows
everything.' I thought I did.

Play the racing game for long enough and you can't help but become
a pragmatist. There's always someone out there who knows more than
you. There's always someone who knows something you don't. There's
always someone whose knowledge, analysis and judgement - used in
conjunction with your own - can help make you a stronger, more
effective and more profitable gambler. That's a fact.

The key is to choose your informants carefully. To use the best
sources of information you can find. It takes a bit of discernment
to sort the silk purses from the pigs' ears. There's so much
rubbish out there masquerading as 'the real thing' it's almost
depressing. But there's also good stuff too - if you can find it.

I hope HRF falls into that bracket. I certainly try. But I'm not
alone in striving to provide racing punters with information and
advice they can USE to place more winning bets and avoid more of
the bad ones.

Four quality reports that you can download free right now...

Take the people behind TrainerTrackStats.com, for example. Right
now they're offering 4 FREE reports you might want to be aware of.
You can get your hands on them right now for FREE - no fees, no
strings, no obligations.

• First off there's Flat Racing Profiles 2009 by David Peat. At
  the outset of the flat season this report would have cost you £97 -
  not surprising given the meticulous research involved in profiling
  150 horses of interest. So far this season Peat's followers are 50
  points up - that's £5000 profit to a £100 level stake. And with 6
  weeks of the flat season still to go you can share in any tailend
  profits to come.
   
  
• Then there's 15 to Follow in the NH Season by Alan Kelly - a
  former senior trader at Pagebet, a winner of the Scoop6 and a
  multiple Top 20 finisher in the Tote 10 to Follow competition.  He
  shares his horses to follow throughout the upcoming winter jumps
  programme. Okay one or two of the horses would appear on almost
  anybody's list but there are quite a few dark horses that probably
  wouldn't. There's some penetrating and original analysis on view
  here.
   
  
• You can also download an abridged version of Gavin
  Priestley's famous Trainer Track Stats which provide unique NH
  insight you won't find anywhere else. For example, there's a
  trainer to look out for at Newcastle during January, February and
  March. His last 22 runners have produced 8 winners and rewarded
  backers with over 38 points profit. I don't want to steal Gavin's
  thunder. You'll have to download the free report to get the detail.
  But that's just one statistical fact out of dozens that could lead
  you to profits in the months ahead.
   
  
• Finally you can download the 2009 Ante-post Autumn Double
  Profile which delivers stats, trends and in-depth race analysis for
  the Cambridgeshire and Cesarewitch autumn double at Newmarket.

To help yourself to ALL four of these reports absolutely free,
simply click here and scroll to the bottom of the page where you
can click on the links to each free report...

There's no catch. The page where you'll find the downloads does
offer you an exclusive discount on Gavin Priestley's Trainer Track
Stats package for the 2009/10 NH programme. But, whether you are
interested in that or not, the reports I highlighted above are
yours to check out and keep without cost.

Until next time, be lucky.